2018 Projections thread

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  • #43896
    AvatarOnyxgem
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    I don’t see any way Brewers are that bad

    #43903
    BlackHillsCardBlackHillsCard
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    Will Leitch is a Cardinals fan and founder of Deadspin? That’s kind of amazing considering how much Deadspin craps on the Cardinals year-in and year-out.

    #43906
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Apparently, fandom is secondary to attention and clicks. Using it as a springboard into traditional media, he eventually left Deadspin behind.

    #43907
    Avatargscottar
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    If the Brewers only win 78 games that would be the shock of the year. I think they win more like 88.

    #43910
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    Brewers way over achieved last year.

    #43917
    Avatar858booyah
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    Well if they overachieved last year then they can at least win 86 games this year and underachieve.

    #43936
    AvatarPadsFS
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    The writers at deadspin used to attack the Cardinals on purpose to get digs in at the owner.

    #43938
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Leitch’s most damaging attack was when he accused Pujols’ personal trainer of being a supplier of HGH. Probably because the trainer was a relative unknown, Deadspin plastered Pujols’ photo all over the article, and he became guilty by association. This generated a lot of national attention, all negative, as you can imagine.

    Four months later, an investigation by real journalists, from the Los Angeles Times, not Deadspin, determined that the trainer was another man, not the one connected to Pujols. Of course, the damage was done but Deadspin had already received all its attention.

    Leitch apologized to the trainer, but nothing about Albert was said, other than they added a footnote to the original article stating that they intended no connection to Albert (likely lawyer-driven). They also removed Pujols’ photo, but the apology received almost no attention compared to the original expose’.

    Even if Leitch is the most talented writer in the history of mankind, I cannot understand why his past as the founder and long-time leader of the web’s worst lowlife, muckraking sports site has been ignored. This isn’t just satire – it is direct attacks on people who may be innocent – with zero accountability.

    Who cares if reputations are destroyed? We have some great dirt on someone you know from a questionable source. Whoops, we made a mistake – sorry about that. But hey, I got a great new job in the mainstream media. Look at me, I am legit!

    If you want to read about it, here is a link.

    https://thecardinalnation.com/midslingers-again-take-aim-at-pujols/

    #43947
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    I put some weight on gambling odds because people are willing to put money behind them. I just received the latest today. (Source is bovada.lv)

    MLB Win Totals
    Houston Astros                     96½
    Los Angeles Dodgers                96½
    Chicago Cubs                       94½
    Cleveland Indians                  94½
    New York Yankees                   94½
    Washington Nationals               92½
    Boston Red Sox                     91½
    Arizona Diamondbacks              85½
    St. Louis Cardinals                85½
    Los Angeles Angels                 84½
    Milwaukee Brewers                  84½
    Minnesota Twins                    82½
    Colorado Rockies                   82
    San Francisco Giants               81½
    Seattle Mariners                   81½
    New York Mets                      81
    Toronto Blue Jays                  81
    Tampa Bay Rays                     77½
    Texas Rangers                      77½
    Philadelphia Phillies              75½
    Atlanta Braves                     74½
    Oakland Athletics                  74½
    Cincinnati Reds                    73½
    Baltimore Orioles                  73
    Pittsburgh Pirates                 73
    Kansas City Royals                 71½
    San Diego Padres                   69½
    Detroit Tigers                     68½
    Chicago White Sox                  68
    Miami Marlins                      64½

    #43971
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Here is a national writer from MLB.com who is very high on the Cardinals. He did not predict a win total other than to say he likes the Cards better than the Brewers. OK, but he is using five-year regular-season won-loss record to assert that the Cards have not been on a decline. I thought this was a lost tweet from 2015!

    #43978
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    As if on cue, an announcement from Bernie.

    #45896
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    This will be a good one to remember. From Bernie at The Athletic.

    “…I have several reasons to envision the Cardinals exceeding their FanGraphs projection of 87 wins…”

    “Here are the baseball factors that should lead to an increase in wins, to get the Cardinals to the 90+ level…”

    https://theathletic.com/279128/2018/03/18/miklasz-that-warm-feeling-its-increasing-optimism-about-the-cardinals-season/

    #45904
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    From page 1 of this thread, here is what Bernie wrote just last month about last year’s predictions.

    “…the sunshiny, blue-sky forecasts from fans and media that had the 2017 Cardinals winning 90+ games…”

    And now, he is making the exact same kind of prediction for 2018 that he criticized for 2017 in hindsight.

    What do you think? Do you see the 2018 Cardinals team as being seven or more games better than last year’s edition? Why or why not?

    #45932
    Avatargscottar
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    I’m going to say we will not be seven games better than last year due to too much volatility in the rotation and bullpen. One mitigating factor would be an aggressive move or two at the deadline but that would be out of character for our front office.

    #45933
    Avatargscottar
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    #45946
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    According to Fangraphs, the Cardinals’ schedule is worth one win to them in 2018. They have the Cards down for 87 wins before and 88.3 including schedule adjustment. Their St. Louis playoff odds are currently 71%.

    Here Are the Projected 2018 Strengths of Schedule

    #45995
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #46015
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    From the “spring training results do not matter (or do they?) dept.”:

    Tied for best spring record in MLB – Milwaukee 17-7 (.708)
    Tied for 4th-best spring record – Cubs 16-10 (.615)
    Tied for 10th-best spring record – Cards 13-11 (.542)

    #46067
    Avatargscottar
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    Heyman says there are seven “super teams” then a few others fighting to get a seat at the table.

    https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/inside-baseball-preseason-power-rankings/

    #46071
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    In the why I dont trust projectiions catagory – baseball reference has Steven Baron projected for a .741 OPS even though his career high minor league OPS is .735 and every other season was below .700.

    #46072
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    I agree that example is bad, but painting all projections, no matter the source, with the same broad brush seems unfair.

    #46104
    Avatar858booyah
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    I want to believe in the Team and the offense could be scary good based on what I’ve heard and seen the last 10 days. Dejong hitting 7th got me giddy although Molina hitting there would be best.

    The pitching and manager still has me holding back a bit. I say were at this point on the cusp but right now just outside of playoff spot. Plus how many losses will we sustain due to our pitchers still unable to throw to a bag?

    #46129
    Avatar14NyquisT
    Participant

    Booyah, Zach Rymer with Bleacher Reports along with Picota projections agree with you regarding the Cards just missing the post-season. BUT they still have to play the games.
    ************************************************************************

    St. Louis Cardinals

    2017: 83-79

    PECOTA 2018: 85-77

    The Cardinals won 83 games last year despite not really being good at anything. That should change at least on the offensive front in 2018. Assuming he can pick up where he left off after a career-best 2017, Marcell Ozuna will be the big slugger the Redbirds were missing.

    The real question is how the Cardinals will perform on the mound. The upside of guys like Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha, Luke Weaver and Alex Reyes (who should return from Tommy John surgery in May) is a reason to hope for the best. Even so, this is a list of names that only covers a fraction of the entire ensemble. That’s a reason for unease.

    Prediction: 84-78

    #46373
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    P-D columnist Ortiz pegs the Cards to finish in first place ahead of the Cubs.

    #46403
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
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    The pitching and manager still has me holding back a bit. I say were at this point on the cusp but right now just outside of playoff spot.

    I am pretty much in line with 858booyah’s assessment on the 2018 club. I do not think we have the quality nor depth in pitching to hold up over the course of the season. We will go through some stretches where the offense is clickling and reel off 5,6,7 in a row by scoring 6-10 runs per game. But I think we will also go through times where the offense will stall a little and we are not able to win those games. This will keep us from being in contention at the end. Below is a copy-paste of my thoughts as I expressed them in the Regular season game 1 thread:

    The plan to move relievers back and forth between Memphis and St. Louis does not bode well in my opinion. They say they are going to do it to keep fresh arms available at all times. So what is Stubby supposed to do when he has one of the “shuffled” players, not use him? Plus we are dealing with people, not robots or player cards from a table top game. I would think all of the moving around and changes in roles, locations, levels of play etc would make it tough for a guy to get into a groove.

    Hopefully I am wrong and the club “goes crazy” and wins 97 games or so. With some better fundamentals than last year, they could add a couple of wins right there. But it just seems like they are running the show in the way Matheny always does things, which is micro-manage. You cannot do that and expect players to get the most from their talent.

    My prediction is a low 80s win total.

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