Because of the shifting and unsettled relations between players and teams, I don’t think looking back at past behavior will be a great predictor of the future. In fact, even before the next agreement comes, the unrest could lead to small changes.
I wonder (not looking backward, but looking forward) if the increased unhappiness about pre-arb salaries will lead to greater disagreement between players and teams on arbitration salary expectations. In recent years, some teams including the Cardinals, have taken a hard stance that if the two sides don’t come to terms before amounts are formally exchanged and the hearing date is set, they will proceed to the hearing. So in this case, it is really the team taking the player to hearing, though it may be represented in the press as the player doing so.
This year, players won six of 10 hearings, including the top three money guys. Bauer, Cole and Wood all won their hearings, getting over $35 million for this season among them. That may embolden the best eligible players to push harder next year.
If I had to guess where things will be in two years, the last before the new agreement, I would think players will continue to push the envelope where they can. Arbitration is one such area.
Further, my prediction is that Flaherty and Hicks will be either locked up in long term deals before then or they may be tougher to sign for the 2021 season. I think all that is going on could increase their chances of going to hearing.
That is my logic.