It should be possible to fix the starting rotation entirely through free agency, if we assume a $55 million budget.
You are replacing:
1) Jordan Montgomery:
2023: 188.2 IP; 3.20 ERA; 1.19 WHIP; .247 Avg; 7.9 K/9; 3.5 K/BB; $10 M
Career: 3.68 ERA; 1.21 WHIP; .244 Avg
2) Adam Wainwright:
2023: 101.0 IP; 7.40 ERA; 1.90 WHIP; .345 Avg; 4.9 K/9; 1.3 K/BB; $18 M
Career: 3.53 ERA; 1.24 WHIP; .254 Avg
3) Jack Flaherty:
2023: 144.1 IP; 4.99 ERA; 1.58 WHIP; .287 Avg; 9.2 K/9; 2.2 K/BB; $5.4 M
Career: 3.75 ERA; 1.21 WHIP; .225 Avg
Then you need three of the following:
1) Jordan Montgomery
The best free agent pitcher available without a QO or posting fee.
2) Hyu-Jin Ryu:
2023: 52.0 IP; 3.46 ERA; 1.29 WHIP; .257 Avg; 6.6 K/9; 2.7 K/BB; $20 M
Career: 3.27 ERA; 1.18 WHIP; .250 Avg
He’ll be 37 and is coming off Tommy John surgery in 2022 (didn’t start pitching until July, 2023), so he likely will only get a one-year deal. He should easily surpass Waino’s 101.0 IP from 2023 at a far lower ERA.
3) Mike Clevinger:
2023: 131.1 IP; 3.77 ERA; 1.23; .244 Avg; 7.6 K/9; 2.8 K/BB; $12 M
Career: 3.45 ERA; 1.19 WHIP; .226 Avg
Clevinger dealt with both domestic abuse allegations and a shoulder/elbow scare this year, so likely available on a one-year deal.
4) Seth Lugo:
2023: 146.1 IP; 3.57 ERA; 1.20 WHIP; .249 Avg; 8.6 K/9; 3.9 K/BB; $7.5 M
Career: 3.50 ERA; 1.17 WHIP; .239 Avg
This was only Lugo’s second year as a full-time starter. The other year was 2017. He has a player option for $7.5 million, but he should beat that in free agency.
5) Eduardo Rodriguez:
2023: 152.2 IP; 3.30 ERA; 1.15 WHIP; .227 Avg; 8.5 K/9; $14 M
Career: 4.03 ERA; 1.26 WHIP; .248 Avg
Has an opt-out in his contract. Set to make $18 million next year if he does not opt out. His salary is set to decline to $16 million in 2025 and $15 million in 2026.
6) Wade Miley:
2023: 120.1 IP; 3.14 ERA; 1.14 WHIP; .223 Avg; 5.9 K/9; 2.1 K/BB; $3.5 M
Career: 4.06 ERA; 1.36 WHIP; .263 Avg
We’d be signing him away from the Brewers…Has a mutual option for $10 million next year. Probably won’t get much more in AAV, but can tack on additional years.
7) Michael Lorenzen:
2023: 153.0 IP; 4.18 ERA; 1.21 WHIP; .243 Avg; 6.5 K/9; 2.4 K/BB; $8.5 M
Career: 4.11 ERA; 1.32 WHIP; .246 Avg
This is Michael’s third year as a starter, along with 2015 & 2022. Like Lugo, probably in the $15 million per year range.
For reference, in 2023, this year’s crop of free agent starting pitchers averaged:
– 33 years of age
– 110.3 IP; 4.35 ERA; 1.33 WHIP; .252 AVG; 8.1 K/9; 2.9 K/BB; $11.5 M
If you can get Montgomery for $25 million per year, and two others for $15 million per year each, you have added 3 members to the starting rotation for $55 million per year. Only one is on a long-term deal.
Also for reference:
Logan Gilbert:
2023: 190.2 IP; 3.73 ERA; 1.08 WHIP; .233 Avg; 8.9 K/9; 5.3 K/BB
Career: 3.76 ERA; 1.14 WHIP; .239 Avg
Logan Gilbert had 3.2 fWAR and 3.1 bWAR. If you trade Gorman + Donovan for him, you are giving up Gorman’s 2.5 fWAR & 2.4 bWAR and Brendan Donovan’s 2.1 fWAR & 1.9 bWAR. Keep in mind, Donovan missed half the year due to injury. So, the deal is a loser on it’s face.