Per oddsmakers, the National League Central Division Champion St. Louis Cardinals are favored to advance beyond the Wild Card Series. You never want to overlook an opponent, especially in the playoffs, but there are multiple reasons to support the idea that Cardinals should be able to get past the number six seed Philadelphia Phillies.
Since their July series with the Phillies, the Cardinals have once again been one of the best second half clubs in Major League baseball. They have gone 46-27 since July 11, winning or splitting 17 of 21 overall series. The Cardinals dropped just two series since September 2nd. Since the trade deadline, they are 39-21. The Cardinals went 53-28 at home, including 11-6 in September.
The Phillies have been respectable at 41-35 since the series that ended on July 11th. Following the trade deadline, they did just enough at 32-28 to make the playoffs. On the road, they are just a game over .500 in 2022 now face a team that is 25 games over .500 in their home park. The Phillies went 11-14 in September including 6-13 away from Philadelphia.
Pitching has once again become the core of the Cardinals surge. Let’s start with the acquisition of Jordan Montgomery, a move that no one saw coming except Cardinals President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak. The lefty has been stabilizing. He went 6-3 in 11 starts with an ERA a full half run less then his 21 starts in the Yankees pinstripes. Pitching back-to-back since Montgomery arrived, Adam Wainwright and Montgomery have gone a combined 10-5 including one no decision the Cardinals eventually won.
Wild Card Game 1 starter Jose Quintana was the other trade deadline acquisition and although his record doesn’t show it at 3-2, the Cardinals have done well when he takes the hill. In six starts spanning September and October, the lefty gave up three runs. He has pitched five or more innings in nine of his 12 starts. Overall, St. Louis is 9-3 in his starts.
Cardinals bats have also been booming since the trade deadline, led by Albert Pujols. The future first ballot Hall of Famer slugged 17 home runs since the beginning of August. No one except Aaron Judge hit more. Over that same span, when number 5 homers, the Cardinals are 12-2.
Don’t forget about Paul Goldschmidt, who had 35 home runs, 115 RBI, 106 runs scored and batted .317. And there’s third baseman Nolan Arenado. He simply went 10-for-22 (.455) against Phillies pitching with six RBI in 2022 en route to 30 home runs and 102 RBI.
In the 60 games since the trade deadline, the Cardinals have scored four or more runs in a game 38 times while allowing four plus just 28 times.
The Wild Card round begins with a Friday day game which also bodes well for the Redbirds. St. Louis is 10-8 while the Phillies are 5-14 in day games since July 31st.
Considering the above, one can understand why the Cardinals are favored to advance to the National League Division Series.
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