All posts by Brian Walton

Brian Walton runs The Cardinal Nation, covering the St. Louis Cardinals and minor league system.

Going beyond three years just feels wrong


At the end of September, negotiations between the St. Louis Cardinals and right-handed pitcher Kyle Lohse culminated in an announcement that the then-29-year-old would remain a member of the club for four more seasons. The price, negotiated by agent Scott Boras, was $41 million.

The player wanted the security of a multiyear contract and the opportunity to remain in St. Louis. As a result, Lohse pressured Boras to deviate from the agent’s standard operating procedure and close a deal prior to the pitcher re-entering the free agent market.

I am amused when I read some revisionist views of these events, crediting Boras for outsmarting the Cardinals in getting the deal done early, before the market softened. Truth is that Boras made it very clear at the signing press conference that he was not in favor of it, but deferred to the pitcher’s demands. Dumb luck is sometimes better than no luck at all.

At the time of the announcement, many of us had at least mild concern over the deal for several reasons. First, the price felt like no bargain for a middle-of-the-rotation starter with a solid, but unspectacular record. Now with the full benefit of hindsight, the market decline has exposed the Cardinals as having paid more than they should have due to their haste.

The second area of general discomfort is the no-trade clause present for the entire term of the deal and finally, the fourth season just feels like one too many years.

I know. The use of the term “feeling” is about as subjective as any comment can be.

Here’s why. Let’s look at the other most recent contracts for a period of over three years initiated by the Cardinals with players that would have been free agent eligible.


Chris Carpenter, December 2006

Their ace was coming off his most two recent seasons in which he won one Cy Young Award and placed third in the other year to go along with a World Series victory. The Cardinals were trying to sign one of the top free agent starting pitchers, Jason Schmidt, so the club negotiated a massive extension with Chris Carpenter as well.

The Cardinals did this despite the fact they had one year plus a club option remaining on Carpenter’s then-current contract. The amounts due the pitcher for the 2007 and 2008 seasons would have been $15 million under that pre-empted deal.

Instead, the Cardinals paid $19 million over the last two years as part of their renewed five-year, $63.5 million commitment to Carpenter, plus they also hold a 2012 club option. That leaves just $44.5 million of guaranteed money to go.

An unstated reason to do the deal when they did was to maintain the salary structure of the club as Schmidt was in line to fetch almost $16 million per year. The Cardinals wanted to ensure Carpenter’s compensation was in line with the highest-paid pitcher on the team. They and the Dodgers reportedly offered Schmidt comparable contracts, but the free agent opted for the West Coast. Whew!

In the two years since, Carpenter and Schmidt between them have earned about $1 million per inning pitched – a total of 47 innings while drawing over $44 million and counting.


Scott Rolen – September 2002

Shortly after coming to the Cardinals from the Philadelphia Phillies that July, new third baseman Scott Rolen received an offer he couldn’t refuse, eight years and $90 million. (Rolen and CEO Bill DeWitt Jr. are shown on signing day.) After productive early years, including a run for the top as part of the 2004 MV3 and a 2006 World Series crown, the relationship ended prematurely last January.

Upset with Cardinals management over his treatment and with his shoulder weakened by multiple surgeries, Rolen wanted out of Dodge. Amazingly, then-new sheriff John Mozeliak found a taker in the Toronto Blue Jays.

Troy Glaus moved to St. Louis as the unhappy Rolen headed to the Land of the Great White North, where his offensive struggles continued. The Cardinals-Glaus marriage, while solid in its first year, will end after the 2009 season, while the Jays will still be bound to pay a declining Rolen $11 million in 2010.


When considering the Carpenter and Rolen deals along with what might have been with Schmidt, is there any reason the Cardinals shouldn’t be concerned about making a long-term commitment to any player?

It just so happened that Kyle Lohse was next in line.


Footnote: Not included here are three long-term deals put in place under different circumstances – to buy out young players’ arbitration-eligible years and beyond.

These contracts were given to Albert Pujols in 2004 (seven years, $100 million plus a team option for year eight), Yadier Molina in 2008 (four years, $15.5 million plus a team option for year five) and Adam Wainwright (four years, $15 million plus team options for years five and six).

Pujols’ deal is clearly a bargain but external pressure is already mounting to extend his current contract – despite the fact its final three seasons still remain – two contract years plus the club option.

While year one of both Molina’s and Wainwright’s contracts have been favorable for both sides, good player health for each is key to the club getting full value for the risk taken in issuing the long-term deals earlier than required.

Cardinals television and radio update – 01/31/09


More news of television schedules for all major league clubs continue to trickle out. Not surprisingly, my primary interest is where they intersect with the St. Louis Cardinals. This post is an update of my January 8 and January 19 reports.

Since last time, the slate of St. Louis Cardinals spring training games confirmed to be televised has grown to six.

Local television

St. Louis KSDK Channel 5 will be tuning up for their Sunday regular season broadcasts with a pair of spring training telecasts from Jupiter, Florida. They will be showing the home games against the Atlanta Braves on Saturday, March 14 and the contest when the Cards welcome the Baltimore Orioles the following Sunday, March 22.

In addition to those two contests, the schedule for the 20-game regular season portion of KSDK’s 2009 Cardinals coverage is also posted on MLB.com.

Opponent television

The other new additions to my schedule below are from the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros. Along with the previously-announced Minnesota Twins game on March 29, each of these three clubs will be televising one Cardinals spring game.

Sportsnet New York will have the earliest game, the Friday, February 27 game from Port St. Lucie. The Phillies will carry the Sunday, March 15 contest while FOX Sports Southwest will pick up the Wednesday, March 25 tilt as the Astros invade Jupiter. See details below.

How to get them

In recent years, I have always tracked all spring televised games. In this age of satellite television, enterprising Cardinals fans thirsty for all the action they can get often find a way to pick up the opposing broadcasts. I know I do.

Now if MLB Network delivers on their still not fully-defined plans to televise three spring games per day, it should prove to be even easier here in 2009. (It sounds like a cheesy commercial, but I am serious. If your system doesn’t offer the new MLB Network channel, start making calls and writing letters.)

Local radio

Last point. A friend at The BIG 550 KTRS, radio home of the Cardinals, tells me that he believes their spring radio plans for Cards games will continue as in the past. That means Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday and Sunday games during camp. Though this is NOT confirmed yet, I am tentatively listing the broadcasts here.

The station will have on-air staff in Florida doing reports from February 11, starting even before pitchers and catchers report! As you probably know, they have a live internet stream. If I can get schedule information, I will pass it along.

Winter Warm-up embers still hot

Don’t forget to catch the two episodes of Fox Sports Midwest’s coverage from the Cardinals Winter Warm-up that are still being re-run on FS Midwest. Here’s the link to the schedule. Among the things you will learn is that Khalil Greene is one serious dude, the anti-Jim Hayes.

Spring schedule details

DAY DATE TM* HOME TEAM VISITOR Radio? TV
Mon 23-Feb-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals SLU Billikens (exhib.)
Wed 25-Feb-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Florida Marlins
Thur 26-Feb-09 1:05 Baltimore Orioles St. Louis Cardinals KTRS
Fri 27-Feb-09 1:05 New York Mets St. Louis Cardinals SNY
Sat 28-Feb-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Washington Nationals KTRS
Sun 1-Mar-09 1:05 Florida Marlins St. Louis Cardinals KTRS
Mon 2-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Tampa Bay Rays
Tues 3-Mar-09 1:05 New York Mets St. Louis Cardinals KTRS
Thur 5-Mar-09 2:05 St. Louis Cardinals Dom Republic WBC KTRS
Fri 6-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals New York Mets
Sat 7-Mar-09 1:05 Houston Astros St. Louis Cardinals KTRS
Sun 8-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Florida Marlins KTRS
Tues 10-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Detroit Tigers KTRS
Wed 11-Mar-09 1:05 Florida Marlins St. Louis Cardinals
Thur 12-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Boston Red Sox KTRS
Fri 13-Mar-09 1:05 Baltimore Orioles St. Louis Cardinals
Fri 13-Mar-09 7:05 St. Louis Cardinals Baltimore Orioles
Sat 14-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Atlanta Braves KTRS KSDK 5
Sun 15-Mar-09 1:05 Philadelphia Phillies St. Louis Cardinals KTRS My Phl 17
Mon 16-Mar-09 1:05 Detroit Tigers St. Louis Cardinals
Wed 18-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Baltimore Orioles
Wed 18-Mar-09 1:05 Baltimore Orioles St. Louis Cardinals
Thur 19-Mar-09 1:05 Tampa Bay Rays St. Louis Cardinals KTRS
Fri 20-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Philadelphia Phillies
Sat 21-Mar-09 1:05 Washington Nationals St. Louis Cardinals KTRS
Sun 22-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Baltimore Orioles KTRS KSDK 5
Mon 23-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Washington Nationals
Wed 25-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Houston Astros FS SW
Thur 26-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals New York Mets KTRS
Fri 27-Mar-09 1:05 Boston Red Sox St. Louis Cardinals
Sat 28-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Baltimore Orioles KTRS
Sun 29-Mar-09 1:05 Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals KTRS FS North
Mon 30-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Florida Marlins
Tues 31-Mar-09 1:05 Baltimore Orioles St. Louis Cardinals KTRS
Wed 1-Apr-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals New York Mets
Thur 2-Apr-09 1:05 Florida Marlins St. Louis Cardinals KTRS
Fri 3-Apr-09 7:05 Memphis Redbirds St. Louis Cardinals
Sat 4-Apr-09 1:05 Memphis Redbirds St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals minor matters – January 30


Albert to the DR

Albert Pujols arrived in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic on Wednesday, according to ESPN Deportes. His primary mission is to deliver over a thousand beds and other supplies aimed at benefiting disadvantaged people in his homeland. The linked to report also notes Albert will train with those World Baseball Classic players present in the country and will play as long as his elbow is ok. No mention was made of the earlier insurance problem that threatened to keep him sidelined.


Albert heats up his “Sign Manny” initiative

Meeting with the press while in the Dominican, Pujols returned to a subject that is obviously close to his heart – the Cardinals signing free agent outfielder Manny Ramirez. Albert broached the same subject earlier in the winter as well, back in November.

This time, Albert said he is speaking with Manny every three days and passed the phone number of the Scott Boras client on to manager Tony La Russa. Pujols addressed the inherent budgetary challenges by suggesting the support of St. Louis fans could be worth a discount.

Hold onto that thought for a minute.


Mo says “no Manny”

It was only Wednesday when the LA Times published a very short conversation with Cards GM John Mozeliak. Mo was asked if the Cardinals are a mystery bidder for ManRam.

“The answer is no,” Mozeliak told the paper.

Not a lot of wiggle room in that.


Déjà vu, Albert

Please read the following excerpt.

Albert Pujols wants a long-term contract from the St. Louis Cardinals, and he doesn’t plan to give them a bargain.

“What do you mean?” Pujols said Sunday at the team’s annual winter fanfest. “This is business. There’s no break here.

“You try to get what you deserve and that’s what I want. I’ve taken care of my business in the field the last three years and hopefully I get treated respectfully, that’s all I ask for.”

You read about that already, right? If the resulting message board anxiety could have been measured, a large segment of the Cardinal Nation has already been hospitalized and Albert is in the midst of looking for new houses in New York or Los Angeles, or maybe both!

The problem is that the above quote, while 100% real, is NOT from this Winter Warm-up. It is from January, 2004, prior to Albert’s current seven-year deal.

My advice to those with their undies in a bunch over the prospect of a Pujols free agency in three years, is to calm down, please!

Now, back to Manny. Albert seems to have the same disease that strikes fans all over baseball – the tendency to want to spend other peoples’ money.

If Albert says he won’t take a hometown discount with his own team, how can he expect someone that has never even played there to do so?

Right. It’s all just talk, so take it for what it is worth.


Bissinger on Pujols

Article from ESPN the Magazine on El Hombre with a 2005 perspective, yet a good reminder of the greatness of Albert.


Amaury the Hunter

Even as the outfielder was not among those invited to major league spring training this year after scoring an invite in 2008, Amaury Marti is having a solid winter playing for Licey in the Dominican Republic. He and his Tiger teammates should be on the tube starting next Monday as the MLB Network covers the Caribbean Series from Mexico. (Check out daily reports on the Series on Cardinals Best News Links.)

A recent article from the Dominican paper Listin Diario does not beat around the bush about Marti’s age, calling him the same 34 years old at which he was listed in Cuba. The Cardinals, at least publicly, still have their collective heads in the sand, asserting Marti is 30.

One other tidbit is that the well-traveled outfielder acquired a nickname this past summer while playing in Mexico – “El Cazador” or “The Hunter”.

So it shall be!


La Russa booking

In news of the weird, Tony La Russa will be autographing phone books this Saturday afternoon in Concord, CA. Turns out, TLR and one of his daughters are featured on the cover of the local phone directory, honest!

Try framing that!

The good news is that La Russa is working cheaply, with signatures just $10 a pop, all for charity of course. That is just a third of what it took for his autograph at Winter Warm-up.


Benson only “so-so”

The “most consistent interest” in 34-year-old Kris Benson is from the Dodgers, Rangers and Cardinals, says Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal’s sources. Benson is trying to come back from rotator cuff surgery two years ago. According to the report, Benson looks only “so-so” in his throwing sessions. “Better than expected,” an MLB exec said, “but not great.”

Pass. Please.


Springer signs for perhaps a small raise

Former Cardinals reliever Russ Springer signed a one-year deal with the Oakland A’s for $3.3 million with another $0.3 million in incentives. That could take his 2009 take just slightly over his $3.5 million salary with the Cards in 2008. The 40-year-old moved to his eighth team in his 16th season because St. Louis had no room for him in 2009.

Best of luck to Springer, a genuine nice guy.


Izzy still waiting

With the signing of former Arizona closer Brandon Lyon by the Detroit Tigers, ex-Cards closer Jason Isringhausen may have lost his ideal landing location for 2009. The Detroit Free Press had been actively campaigning for Izzy, obviously to no avail.

Few if any other clubs have open closer jobs without candidates already in house. Early in the month, there were supposedly six teams interested in Izzy, but as of now, he is still unemployed.


Looper back on O’s plate

With Baltimore already having signed ex-Cards shortstop Cesar Izturis, they are getting back around to considering starting pitcher Braden Looper. They were linked with the free agent earlier in the winter, but that time, interest was not confirmed.

Looks to me like it could be a good fit. (The Dodgers are also said to have interest.)


A Giant Thrill

Former Cardinals first baseman Will Clark has returned to his old club, the San Francisco Giants, as a special assistant. After coaching with the Cardinals in spring training three years ago, Clark spent the last two with the Arizona Diamondbacks.


A Mac Holliday

Almost Cardinal and now Oakland A’s outfielder Matt Holliday not only credits disgraced ex-Cardinals slugger Mark McGwire for helping him develop his power, but he actually moved to Southern California this off-season specifically to work out with Big Mac.

How’s that for tight?


Boras comes up in ‘roids talk

Admitted steroids supplier to baseball players Kirk Radomski spoke to ESPN. Among his comments is one that money for PEDs on behalf of Kevin Brown allegedly arrived in an envelope from agent Scott Boras’ office. Boras denied involvement, of course.


Boras unethical to clients

A very interesting lawyerly-focused treatise on Boras’ ethics with the conclusion that his clients are the ones that suffer.

The changing face of Cardinals NRIs – Part two


In the first part of this look at the St. Louis Cardinals non-roster invitees, the changing balance between veterans and prospects was analyzed. Here in part two, we’ll review the NRIs that made the team each year out of spring training since 2001 as well as some of the prominent names that came up short.

2008 NRI made 25-man Casualties
Ron Villone Juan Gonzalez
Rico Washington * Cliff Politte
* 1st MLB action Dewan Brazelton

Last spring, lefty NRI reliever Ron Villone signed late, on February 19. Tyler Johnson always seemed a month away from being ready. Tyler’s late March cortisone shot opened the door for Villone and by Johnson’s May surgery, Villone was firmly entrenched for the remainder of the season. Villone was not asked to return to the Cardinals in 2009 and remains a free agent.

Rico Washington made his first major league roster after almost a dozen years in the minors when Brendan Ryan suffered a strained oblique during spring training. After a month of hitting under the Mendoza Line, Washington was back in Memphis. He is now a minor league free agent.

Among the players that tried and failed to make the team include former two-time American League Most Valuable Player Juan Gonzalez and ex-Tampa Bay pitcher Dewon Brazelton. Neither made it through the month of March. In what may have been his final season, former Cards pitcher Cliff Politte reported to Memphis, but spent most of the season on the disabled list.

2007 NRI made 25-man Casualties
none Eli Marrero
Jolbert Cabrera

Though 19 tried, not a one of the 2007 NRIs made the opening day roster.

Former Cardinals catcher Eli Marrero tried to catch on as a third string catcher and backup outfielder but instead opened the season on Memphis’ DL due to elbow problems. He played in all of one game there before bad feelings not only ended the business relationship but apparently also Marrero’s career. (After being out of the game in 2008, Marrero is playing winter ball in Puerto Rico this off-season, but is not under contract with an MLB organization.)

Ex-MLB infielder Jolbert Cabrera was allotted 53 spring at-bats and did nothing, batting .151/.211/.189. Well, check that. He did lead the team with four spring errors. Cabrera missed part of the season with Memphis before getting his appendix removed and it went downhill from there.

2006 NRI made 25-man Casualties
Josh Hancock Alan Benes
Scott Spiezio Brian Daubach
Jeff Nelson

2006 camp brought a large batch of former major leaguers on minor league contracts. They included first baseman Brian Daubach and pitchers Blaine Neal, John Riedling and Brad Voyles. They all failed. Not an NRI though he should have been, second baseman Junior Spivey had a roster spot, but stunk it up so badly in the spring (.147, five errors) that he was outrighted to Memphis. There he continued to earn a major league salary through DL stints.

Alan Benes made one last try to reclaim his pre-injury glory but ended his career with Memphis. Infielder Deivi Cruz was the only spring hitter worse than Spivey (.146) and was taken off the roster and released before March was out. Reliever Jeff Nelson, a former four-time world champion with the Yankees, pitched well in March, but lost out in the numbers game.

Two that made the club were a pair headed for future disasters – former Cincinnati pitcher Josh Hancock, who posted a spring ERA of 1.80, and infielder Scott Spiezio, kept on the roster despite hitting just .194. Hancock died in a 2007 automobile crash while Spiezio is out of the game due to ongoing substance abuse problems.

2005 NRI made 25-man Casualties
Bill Pulsipher Bob File
Abraham Nunez Raul Gonzalez

Jason Isringhausen’s former comrade with the Mets’ Generation K, lefty Bill Pulsipher, was a surprise winner of a 2005 roster spot. Hamstring problems almost immediately put him on the DL and he was outrighted to Memphis by early May. He went to indy ball from there.

Former Pirates infielder Abraham Nunez was a one-year success for the 2005 Cards, covering third base while Scott Rolen missed 106 games. He turned that into a two year, $3.35 million contract with Philadelphia for 2006-2007 but washed out and is now trying to get back to the majors.

Among those that didn’t make it that spring were former major leaguers Bob File and Raul Gonzalez. The former, a pitcher, retired while the latter, an outfielder, went to Memphis, where he spent the season.

2004 NRI made 25-man Casualties
Tony Womack Kevin Witt
Ray Lankford Emil Brown
Cody McKay Greg Vaughn

In one of the biggest NRI showings in recent years, three players made the 2004 team, including second baseman Tony Womack, who went on to hit .307 that season, former Cards great, outfielder Ray Lankford, back for a curtain call after a year away from the game, and catcher Cody McKay. Lankford retired for good following a pedestrian season during which he was slowed by a wrist injury while McKay called it quits after 19 games with Memphis in 2005.

Former Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Kevin Witt was among those that didn’t make the team, but went on to have a fine season with Memphis. Outfielder Emil Brown lasted only 19 games in Triple-A, but since has become a four-year MLB starter with Kansas City and Oakland. On his last career legs, Greg Vaughn, with 355 major league home runs, was reassigned to minor league camp at the end of March and the outfielder retired the next day.

2003 NRI made 25-man Casualties
Cal Eldred Kurt Abbott
Lance Painter Jon Nunnally
Russ Springer
Kiko Calero *
* 1st MLB action

Four relievers, all NRIs, made the initial 2003 bullpen. Cal Eldred re-invented himself as a valuable reliever and Lance Painter would close out his career after pitching in 22 games for the Cardinals. Russ Springer had his initial stop in St. Louis, while Kiko Calero made his first MLB roster after having been signed as a minor league free agent prior to the season.

Though neither were NRIs, reliever Al Levine and starting pitcher Joey Hamilton, the latter with almost 200 MLB starts under his belt, were brought in amid some fanfare. Neither MLB veteran lasted the month of March before being released just prior to the deadline at which their entire contract amounts would have become guaranteed.

2002 NRI made 25-man Casualties
Eduardo Perez Al Martin

Two NRIs were among the combatants fighting to augment Albert Pujols in the 2002 outfield, though it would not be until 2004 that the full-time switch was made.

One NRI made the club out of camp, infielder/outfielder Eduardo Perez. Tony’s son returned to the Cardinals after having played in Japan in 2001. He was a previously a Cardinal in 1999-2000. Outfielder Al Martin, long time of the Pirates, had come over from Seattle. He ended up not playing that season due to injury, his only stop with the organization.

2001 NRI made 25-man Casualties
John Mabry Shane Andrews
Jeff Tabaka Bernard Gilkey
Albert Pujols*
* 1st MLB action

Among the final cuts in 2001 were veteran outfielder and former Cardinal Bernard Gilkey and third baseman Shane Andrews, both in camp as NRIs. Gilkey moved to the Braves for his final season while Andrews stayed around to hit .218 for Memphis that summer.

Three non-roster invitees did make the club, however. You may remember at least one of them.

Reliever Jeff Tabaka is a name some Cardinals fans would rather forget, having posted a 7.38 ERA in his career swan song in 2001. First baseman/outfielder John Mabry was back and made the club for his second stint, but didn’t stay long. He was traded to Florida after appearing in just five regular season games.

The unanimous choice as NL Rookie of the Year, Albert Pujols started at four positions that season – first base (32), left field (37), right field (33) and third base (52). Albert not only was not on the 40-man roster coming in, he burst onto the scene having had just 14 regular season at-bats above A-ball.


In closing: In what was clearly a unique situation, Albert made the jump from spring NRI to the majors in one big step. Just because he did, it doesn’t mean Colby Rasmus, David Freese and Brett Wallace and the others vying for a 2009 roster spot will be assured of doing the same, however.

Yet the developing conditions are favorable for it to perhaps happen again.

Is reducing the Cardinals payroll unreasonable?


An overly-simple measure of quantity (rather than quality) of a baseball organization’s financial commitment is the oft-quoted total salary of the players that make up their major league roster.

There are many variations to these numbers, depending on whether one is looking at the total salaries of the players regardless of which club is actually paying for them (hello, Jim Edmonds!), the timing of the view (start or end of season), how compensation elements such as salary deferrals and incentives are accounted for and more.

A changing 2009 picture

Yet, using any measure, current course and speed, the 2009 St. Louis Cardinals are currently on a trajectory to open the season with a lower total salary commitment than they expected last fall.

In October, general manager John Mozeliak told me to expect a 2009 payroll “north of $100 million”. As has been reported time and time again, things have changed.

Now, in a report I first referenced here the other day, Yahoo Sports is forecasting a $91 million total for the ’09 Cards, considerably below the $99.6 million they quote for 2008 (a season-opening count as well).

Who’s spending more and who’s spending less?

I am not here to nitpick the numbers, but I do want to look into them, as there is a lot more than first meets the eye. Fortunately, a regular on the Scout.com message board, “Oquendo11”, already did much of the initial research.

Using the Yahoo series of articles as a consistent guide, with 22 teams having been covered so far, Oquendo noted that the number of clubs apparently increasing payroll in 2009 is equivalent to the ones cutting back.

I extended that several steps further to add their ranking from 2008. This can help us better understand which clubs are moving in which direction. In other words, are the big spenders planning to spend more while the small spenders are spending less?

2009 vs. 2008 2008 rank Avg rank Avg 2008 $
Increase (9)
Chicago Cubs 8
Philadelphia 12
Houston 14
Cincinnati 18
Baltimore 22
Kansas City 24
Oakland 28
Tampa Bay 29
Florida 30
Avg ’08 rank/$ 21 $67.7 M
Decrease (9)
New York Mets 2
Detroit 3
Boston 4
LA Angels 6
Seattle 9
Atlanta 10
St. Louis 11
Toronto 13
Pittsburgh 27
Avg ’08 rank/$ 9 $117.7 M
Flat (4)
Texas 21
Washington 26
NY Yankees 1
Milwaukee 15
Not included (8)
Chi White Sox 5
LA Dodgers 7
Cleveland 16
San Francisco 17
San Diego 19
Colorado 20
Arizona 23
Minnesota 25

Meet you in the middle

Nope, it is just the opposite. The two extremes are coming in toward the middle. The clubs that were spending the most in 2008 are the ones cutting back in 2009 while the lower-spending clubs are generally planning increases.

The average rankings illustrate this even better. The cutting teams averaged ninth in payroll last season or just into the top third, while the increasers averaged 21st in spending across MLB last year, just into the bottom third.

Taking the rankings even closer to reality, last season’s ninth-highest spending team dropped $117.7 million on players, while the 21st-ranked club spent a whopping $40 million less. Even with an increase on 2009, the 21st ranked club would have a long way to travel to come anywhere near reaching parity.

To make sure I am clear, what this shows is that in terms of their 2009 payroll planning, the Cardinals are behaving very much like the other clubs in their financial ballpark.

Consider how the money is being spent

I want to reinforce one point that has been made over and over again. There is no sure correlation between spending more money and winning more championships. The top payroll in baseball year after year comes from the New York Yankees, a club that missed the playoffs last season and hasn’t won a World Series since 2000.

If one remains unconvinced, just look at the 2008 Seattle Mariners. They became MLB’s first-ever $100 million payroll club ($117.7 million at #9) to lose 100 games (101, to be exact – second-worst in baseball). It’s clearly not how much you spend as much as it is how you spend it.

If disgruntled Cardinals fans want to engage on that point – how the player payroll money is spent – then I can understand completely.

Another reality that is difficult to measure is the impact of a stronger farm system. Common sense tells us that a rookie will always have a lower salary than a veteran. What is far less clear is what percentage of the money saved by replacing an older, more expensive player with a younger, less costly one should be plowed back into upgrading another position at the major league level. Also, should that be a linear relationship, i.e. does it change based on the number of youngsters vs. veterans?

Some fans would say “100% of money saved should always be spent on other major leaguers, of course!” Yet the owners are in business to make money. Why should they not be entitled to reap some of the benefits from efficiencies gained via their smart investments in player scouting and development?

What if a club decides to spend more in the international market or on draft bonuses? Do fans think that is new money or realistically, does it have to be reallocated from somewhere else?

I don’t pretend to know the proper mix or how to measure it, but I am pretty sure that the folks on the far ends of either side of this equation – the “alls” as well as the “nothings” are too extreme for reality.

E:R can neither be fully understood nor ignored

Expanding this one step further, let’s consider the revenue side of the equation. We do not know the actual revenue the Cardinals generate each year, though respected industry watchers like Forbes do their best to make educated estimates.

The Cardinals are clearly signaling they expect down revenue in 2009. Given all that is going on around us in this world, it is not a surprising conclusion to draw.

Still a doubter?

I just read this headline on CNN: “More than 10,000 job cuts announced Tuesday”. The day before they screamed: “Bloody Monday: Over 71,400 jobs lost” on the heels of 40,000 cuts the week prior.

If you don’t think there are scores of Cardinals fans working for these affected companies – Midwest employers like Caterpillar, John Deere, The Home Depot and Target – then you are hopelessly out of touch.

Let’s face it. For most of our country, baseball is a luxury, not a necessity. It is entertainment, not sustenance. When times get tough, we trim the fat before hitting the bone.

Here is a question I challenge everyone to consider.

In any endeavor, including running a baseball team, isn’t it wise to try to keep revenue and expense in balance?

Where can they cut?

One can certainly debate how a club goes about achieving savings. The Arizona Diamondbacks, for example, ranked 23rd in player payroll last season, recently laid off 31 front office personnel, or 9% of their staff.

Is that better for the organization than cutting player expenditures? How could we ever answer that from our perspective? Instead we have to assume ownership carefully weighed their alternatives and did what they thought was best for the organization overall.

One can also debate when cutting expense finally hits the bone – leading to a further decline in revenue and sending the organization into a financial death spiral.

Yet I cannot see how a reasonable, rational person cannot appreciate the most basic financial relationship presented above – if take in less, then I should spend less. The only reason to deviate is if I can determine a valid way to make more by spending more.

Whether we consider it this way or not, the responsible ones among us follow this simple E:R guideline in our own daily lives. Why should we expect others to act differently?

In conclusion

As noted above, the real challenge is in how the Cardinals actually execute their revised 2009 game plan, both on their financial spreadsheets and on the field of play.

In the meantime, let’s see if the club makes any further investments as camp begins and prices on players drop. Let’s see if the younger players step up and contribute. Let’s see if they decide to upgrade the team in-season if they contend in 2009. Let’s see if the Cardinals can weather the economic downturn or if fans stay home in record numbers.

In closing, I am not suggesting that everyone should agree with ownership and management. I disagree with them frequently on any number of specific issues.

However, I am saying that is both unfair and inaccurate to assume that a cut in payroll also represents a move to increase profits and a reduced commitment to putting a winning product on the field.

Those who still don’t get it need to open their eyes and look at what is happening all around them.

Should the Cardinals fear Boras in arbitration?


Recently, I reported on the pending arbitration cases of a pair of St. Louis Cardinals outfielders, Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick. In reply, a reader asked if I feared the prospect of the Cardinals having to face Scott Boras, Ankiel’s agent. After all, the ex-Cardinals minor leaguer carries the reputation as the game’s most powerful agent and a tenacious negotiator.

I took answering the question from the perspective of the club. My somewhat curt reply was that I am not concerned about Boras in arbitration, but do fear him in an even more important role – the one he will be playing for Ankiel after the 2009 season – as the representative of a free agent.

In that act, Boras can play clubs off against each other by inflating the value of offers and the number of suitors pursuing his client and if necessary, even burn some bridges to get the best possible deal. While there are rules governing the free agent process, the freedom is there to decide where to go, how much to ask and how many years to demand.

And if the situation warrants, the criteria can change at a moment’s notice. Just ask Boston owner John Henry how he feels about the recent Mark Teixeira negotiations. From the Boston Herald last month:

“The Sox, meanwhile, are, at least for now, done with Boras. One well-placed source said the club will never deal with him again unless it can be guaranteed that talks are being conducted honestly. We would take that threat a little more seriously if Boras’ clientele list were to shrink dramatically, but since that is not realistic, we will take it as a sign of just how badly the club felt it got stung by lies from Boras. They are in a “fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me” mode right now, with the Teixeira talks feeling like the last straw to them.”

On the other hand, the original question asked me was not about free agency, where Boras’ force is unquestioned. After all, like it or not, barely one month later, these same Red Sox are reportedly close to a two-year deal for their captain, Jason Varitek. Guess who represents the catcher?

Back to the point. The thinking behind my original reply was that the arbitration process has a very defined set of rules that limit the amount of “creativity” possible, even for an agent as notorious as Boras. The two salary amounts for the arbiters to consider – player and club – have already been set. The one-year term is also fixed.

All that remains are the cases the respective agent and club can make in support of their position at the hearing. Boras can come into the room with his famous binders stuffed full of persuasive information, but many clubs are skilled in presenting arbitration cases, too.

As an aside, remember that player and club can come to terms on any deal of any duration before the February arbitration hearing. In fact, that is what usually happens.

Only 12% of all filed cases actually make it to a hearing and many more situations are resolved prior to the filing date. For example, just eight of 110 players who filed last year went to a hearing, while all the other eligible players came to terms ahead of time. The Cardinals haven’t participated in a hearing in ten years.


On Monday morning, I read this article about Tal Smith Enterprises, where the owner, also a long-time Houston Astros executive, discussed his role representing clubs in arbitration hearings. Smith said with an apparent straight face that he doesn’t keep score (yeah, right!), but knows that over the years he is batting over .500.


That renewed my interest in this article. As such, I decided I should analyze the data and determine if my original knee-jerk answer in not fearing Boras in arbitration is supportable. With hearing results from The Biz of Baseball website coupled with player-agent information already in hand, I looked at the last six years of arbitration hearings in terms of winners and losers.


2003-08 Total cases Club win Player win Player %
38 25 13 34.2%


Over the most recent six years, players have won just over one third, 34%, of the hearings. I guess, just like a good hitter, an average of .333 has to be considered pretty respectable.


I then split out the non-Scott Boras clients from the Boras ones. Over the six years, Boras had eight of the 38 hearings. First, here are the year-to-year results for the non-Boras clients.

Excluding Boras Cases Club win Player win Player %
2008 6 5 1 17%
2007 7 4 3 43%
2006 4 3 1 25%
2005 2 2 0 0%
2004 6 3 3 50%
2003 5 3 2 40%
Total 30 20 10 33.3%


The players won exactly one-third of the time, 10 of the 30 hearings held from 2003 through 2008.


Now, looking at the Boras subset, we see that his record is slightly better on behalf of his clients compared to the other agents at 37.5 percent, but remember that we are talking about a population of just eight cases. Just more one win turned to loss or vice-versa would swing the result wildly, from 25% to 50%.

Boras Cases Club win Player win Player %
2008 2 1 Felipe Lopez 1 Oliver Perez 50%
2007 0 0 0 0%
2006 2 1 Sunny Kim 1 Kyle Lohse 50%
2005 1 0 1 Kyle Lohse 100%
2004 1 1 Eric Gagne 0 0%
2003 2 2 Carlos Beltran 0 0%
Bruce Chen
Total 8 5 3 37.5%


In summary


Based on the data from the last six years at least, the arbitration success rate of Scott Boras compared to other agents is negligible.


To gauge whether Ankiel and Boras can beat the odds and defeat the Cardinals in a hearing, a better assessment could be made on the basis of analyzing the two salary amounts submitted.


In my earlier work, I took an approach similar to the arbitration process, looking at players with comparable experience and statistics – as best as possible considering the true uniqueness of Ankiel’s late-blooming career change in becoming an outfielder.


Subsequent to that, here is how the submissions fell, with the two sides coming in almost a million dollars apart:


Ankiel: $3.3 million

Cardinals: $2.35 million

Midpoint: $2.825 million
My earlier estimate: $3.25 million (which will almost certainly end up too high if they settle pre-hearing)


At least based on this work, Boras would seem to be in a strong position. Though not relevant to Ankiel’s case in an actual hearing, the comparable salaries were set in a different economic environment, a factor that could be the slogan of this already-stormy Cardinals’ off-season.

Lohse and Pettitte – One timed it right


News item: Andy Pettitte, boxed in on his 2009 contract and destination, settled on a one-year contract with the New York Yankees for $5.5 million with an additional $6.5 million in incentives – $4.5 million based on innings pitched and $2 million based on days on the active roster, according to the AP.

Earlier in the off-season, the Houston native turned down a $10 million guaranteed deal from the Yanks, his feelings hurt over being asked to take a cut from his 2008 salary of $16 million.

Since that time however, the Yankees went on a spending spree, landing free agents C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira, and withdrawing their original offer to Andy in the process. Pettitte, 36, still made it clear he was interested only in returning to the Yankees, eliminating much of his leverage.

Why am I bringing this up on a St. Louis Cardinals-focused site?

I couldn’t help but notice a few parallels with the often-forgotten, yet biggest move by far of the 2008-2009 Cardinals’ off-season, the signing of Kyle Lohse to a four-year, $41 million contract at the end of September.

  • Like Pettitte, Lohse told his agent that he wanted to remain with his current club and to get a deal done.

  • Like Pettitte, Lohse settled for a deal that could deliver between $10 million and $12 million per year (on the average).

  • Like Pettitte, Lohse turned down a bigger deal early. It was last off-season, a three-year offer to remain with Philadelphia. He later had to settle for a much-reduced one-year, $4.75 million deal with St. Louis for 2008.

  • But unlike Pettitte, Lohse moved quickly this time, before the economy went into its deepest slide. September was a time when $41 million sounded like a decent deal. Now, it doesn’t feel quite as good from the club’s perspective.

I understand the two are totally different situations, but for just a moment, consider if Lohse had turned down a deal worth $10 million or more per year last fall like Pettitte, gambling the market would improve, as agent Scott Boras advised.

Modeling Lohse’s hypothetical deal after Pettitte’s, a four-year deal with an average base of $5.5 million would have guaranteed Lohse just $22 million instead of $41 million. On the positive side, if all incentives were hit, he could actually bring home more, $48 million.

Though not entirely realistic, if nothing else, this offers a view of how the market has shifted since last fall. If Pettitte’s deal is any indication, free agent pitchers, at least those in the second tier, seem to be getting less and/or are having taking on more risk.

This time, Lohse played it right. Likely tired of hassles after two consecutive years of arbitration hearings, then being traded at two consecutive deadlines, followed by a 2007-2008 off-season in which he received no offers between November and March, Lohse found a home in St. Louis and made his big deal to remain.

Yet is there any doubt that the Cardinals wouldn’t do such a contract today? Timing is everything.


(Footnote: Those hoping for improved odds of a Rick Ankiel trade to the Yankees for a young starting pitcher due to the Pettitte signing should note Yankees GM Brian Cashman’s comment in the AP article. He doesn’t expect to be making any more significant moves for the remainder of the off-season. Boras, who also represents Ankiel, is probably more disappointed about that in the context of still-homeless superstar Manny Ramirez than for the Cardinals outfielder.)

Cardinals unnecessary second and third base intrigue


In a winter that has grown increasingly contentious across the Cardinal Nation, the St. Louis Cardinals front office has made some curious moves in recent days.

How the Troy Glaus injury situation was handled has already been well-analyzed by others, so I won’t excessively beat that horse further.

I will say that it is impossible for me to come up with a scenario where management allowed this to happen on purpose. After all, how could the club benefit by Glaus missing up to two months of the season? It’s not like they think they will play better without him and they do still have to pay him, either way.

Still, the investigative journalist side in many people will not seem to be happy until proper blame can be laid on someone. By default, that always seems to be management. In this case, it seems partially valid at least, in terms of how the communication was handled.

I find it disappointing that during the Winter Warm-up fan event, just a few days prior to the surgery announcement, both the club and player covered up the problem, likely to avoid having to answer tough questions. That is not the way to foster trust with an already-wary wary fan base.

No matter whose fault it is, it provides yet another opportunity to criticize ownership and management at a time when the fan’s confidence level in them seems to be following a George Bush popularity trajectory. Hmmm, maybe that is explainable, since Bill DeWitt, Jr. and “43” are buds.

One positive that may come from this injury is the chance to find out early on if David Freese has what it takes to become a major league third baseman. With Glaus’ contract up following the 2009 season and if the “powder dry” Cardinals continue on their cost-cutting trajectory, Glaus will most likely be playing elsewhere in 2010.

Already on a very aggressive schedule since being drafted in the first round just last June, Brett Wallace would have to wow the coaches in camp to become a serious factor to open the season in St. Louis. Yet, crazier things have surely happened.


Speaking of crazy, let’s move on to second base, home of Adam Kennedy and some very unsettled plans.

One of my pet peeves was recently surfaced in the news. If I had a dollar for everyone who thinks Player A, who apparently isn’t good enough to start at his current position, can magically convert to second base overnight, I would be most wealthy. Trying it at the major league level is even more risky.

Yet, that is precisely what Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak offered up for the Cardinal Nation the other day in a chat at StLToday.com. The subject was Skip Schumaker.

“Schumaker was drafted as an infielder but has not played there since making the move to the OF. I have spoken with Tony on this and we have included Oquendo in these talks as well. Skip may get a look there this spring to gauge how comfortable he would be with trying to move back to the infield. He had a good offensively (sic) and we always look for creative ways to get players more playing time,” Mozeliak said.

Up until that point, I refused to believe the scuttlebutt about Schumaker, just as I did about the earlier rumors about outfielder Shane Robinson, who did not see action during the Arizona Fall League at second base, by the way. (As an aside, Jon Jay received a spring training invite and Robinson did not. Consider that an indication of the outfield pecking order.)

Since Mozeliak had discussed the idea of trying Schumaker at second with Tony La Russa and Jose Oquendo as he says he did, why didn’t any of them actually discuss it with the player, too? Couldn’t they have gotten the player some reps in winter ball to test the idea and increase the odds of success?

Of course, the player needs to be sold on the idea first. Earlier, at WWU, Schumaker seemed lukewarm at best, joking that there was likely a reason he hadn’t been put at second base since college in 2001 and prior. Probably knowing he had to be politically correct, the outfielder also said he would try to do whatever the coaches ask.

Why Mo divulged the idea about Schumaker in the manner he did now seems a bit odd. It may not be completely fair, but it felt to me like the GM is trying to generate hope any way possible no matter how unlikely it seems as this increasingly-long, tiring and frustrating off-season continues.

What was unsaid is that if Skip is able to cover second, that creates more outfield room for top prospect Colby Rasmus. In a season with not much new to be excited about, at least so far, more and more signals are pointing to Rasmus as becoming a 2009 focal point – if he makes the team, that is. (An indicator of the hope is the assignment of number 28 to Rasmus this spring, something that stands out among all the number 70s and 80s assigned to the other non-roster invitees.)

Joe Mather, who hasn’t ever played second, recently commented that he would be excited to get the chance to try to play there, too. La Russa had previously laughed off the idea, noting the 6-foot-4 Mather would be one of the tallest second basemen ever. Seems to me that in camp Mather ought to be concentrating on becoming a credible third base reserve, anyway.

Stop! Let’s get real here. This is the major leagues, not some rookie tryout camp. The Cardinals already had two other proven second basemen and they let them walk.

They watched Felipe Lopez leave because he supposedly wanted a multi-year deal. Yet he signed just a one year contract with Arizona for just $3.5 million. They ran Aaron Miles, who was still under team control, out of town because they were scared of arbitration. Miles signed with the Cubs for an average of $2.45 million for the next two seasons, hardly a king’s ransom.

If the Cardinals want another real second baseman, just go get one now, for Pete’s sake. Waiting until camp to determine if any of the in-house candidates are capable is a gamble. Perhaps some decent right-handed hitting second basemen will be available then, but perhaps not.

Among the second basemen still on the market today are Orlando Hudson and Ray Durham. Hudson is a Type A free agent, so his price may be too high due to the compensatory first-round draft pick lost. Former Cardinal Mark Grudzielanek is also out there and any of the three could be a serviceable Kennedy alternative from the right side of the plate. (AK is a left-handed hitter as is Schumaker, another reason the proposed switch seems questionable.)

Since the Cardinals were willing to pay Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes, there must be a little dry powder that could be spared to acquire a decent second baseman if the club wants someone who is actually proven at the position. Yahoo Sports’ most recent projection has the Cardinals coming in with a $91 million payroll in 2009, an almost 10 percent drop from 2008.

Instead, are we really supposed to feel confident about the idea of Skip Schumaker playing second base?

I am not big into playing the blame game myself, and have been trying to wait to pass judgment until the off-season is complete, but Cardinals management isn’t doing anything to help their standing in the court of public opinion. Lately, it seems just the opposite.

The changing face of Cardinals NRIs – Part one


Non-roster invitees are an interesting sort. On Friday afternoon, I posted at Scout.com the list of the 20 such players invited to participate in the St. Louis Cardinals 2009 spring training camp. They join the 35 players that are already on the club’s 40-man roster. All will be vying to be among the 25 players that will be the season-opening members of the 2009 major league team.

What is unusual about the 2009 crop of NRIs is not the size of the population. 20 is just three players below the average in camp over the last seven years, but also remember the Cardinals still have time to make some additional player invitations if they so choose.

Opened camp 2009x 03-08 Avg 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
Roster 35 39 40 40 38 38 38 40
NRI 20 23 29 19 23 20 24 23
Total in camp 55 62 69 59 61 58 62 63
x as of 1/25/09

Speaking of player additions, the 40-man roster is at quite a historically low rate to open camp, at just 35, or four below the 2003-2008 average. It is the lowest total since at least 2002. While the Cardinals could sign another major leaguer or two, they may be holding some of the spaces for a few of those NRIs that may come through in the spring.

Recent history tells us that several non-roster invitees typically do make the 25-man roster at the end of training camp each March. As the data below indicates, on the average two players earn their way both onto the 40-man roster and the 25-man active roster to start the season. In one year, 2007, no NRIs made the team.

2009 Avg ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
NRI made 25-man TBD 2 2 0 2 2 3 4 1 3

All NRIs are not created equal, however. Traditionally, I group them into three broad categories:

1) Veterans trying to catch on. These could be major leaguers or minor leaguers that had to sign minor league contracts to get a camp invite, but do it to try to secure that all-important upgrade to a big-league deal if they make the team.

2) Extra catchers. Usually Double-A and even a few Single-A level catchers score an invite to camp solely for the purpose of catching all the pitchers in camp early on. Traditionally, the Cards have at least eight catchers in uniform when camp begins. Some of these could become top prospects later on, but none are ready yet and therefore have no chance whatsoever to make the club.

3) Prospects. Some of the best prospects at the highest levels of the system have been around long enough that they had to be added to the 40-man previously. The others here typically represent the best prospects at the top two levels of the system that are not yet on the 40-man. Obviously, none of them have appeared in the majors to date.

To illustrate the latter point, take a look at this table.

2001-08 Made 25-man 1st timers %
NRIs 17 3 18%

Of the 17 NRIs to have made the Cardinals since 2001, a span of eight years, only three were making their MLB debuts in the process. The other 13, or 82% of the NRIs to open the season on the 25-man roster had already been to the bigs previously.

The two most recent of the three first-timers were not even products of the Cardinals farm system. Reliever Kiko Calero was on the 2003 opening day roster after having been signed by the Cards as a minor league free agent. Last spring, a career minor leaguer like Calero, Rico Washington, made the Cardinals only because Brendan Ryan was out due to injury.

Think about that for a minute. Last year when a third baseman went down, Washington was the answer. This year, it is David Freese and Brett Wallace instead. Quite the difference, isn’t it?

So, what is the identity of the third NRI to make the Cardinals out of spring training with no prior MLB experience, you ask?

That would be none other than Jose Alberto Pujols, the only Cardinals player to have made the leap from home-grown NRI to major leaguer in one huge bound during this period, back in 2001. (We’ll likely never, ever see Pujols wearing uniform number 68 again!)

While regular readers of my articles know all too well, I often use the past to help project the future. In doing so, my ground is made firmer by the long-run of the Tony La Russa regime in St. Louis and in this case, some fairly consistent roster behavior during that period.

Yet for NRIs in 2009, the landscape is clearly changing. As a first illustration, here is my take as to the split of this spring’s 20 NRIs into the three categories noted above. My rank of the players in our Scout.com Cardinals top 40 is also included.

2009 Cardinals NRIs (20)
Minor league deals (3) Extra catchers (4) Rank Prospects (13) Rank
Ian Ostlund Steven Hill 34 Colby Rasmus 1
Justin Knoedler Tony Cruz 36 Brett Wallace 2
Joe Thurston Luis De La Cruz 36(’08) Bryan Anderson 3
Matt Pagnozzi NR David Freese 5
Jess Todd 7
Clayton Mortensen 11
Jon Jay 12
Adam Ottavino 15
P.J. Walters 17
Allen Craig 18
Francisco Samuel 21
Tyler Herron 25
NR = not ranked Fernando Salas 31

As you can see, 13 of the 20 2009 NRIs are legitimate top prospects and even two of the extra catchers made my personal top 40 ranking this year. One other, Luis De La Cruz, only fell off this time due to an injury-ruined 2008.

This is a very different dynamic from past seasons. For example, let’s look at the NRI list from just 12 months ago.

2008 Cardinals NRIs (29)
Minor league deals (11) Extra catchers (5) Rank Prospects (13) Rank
D’Angelo Jimenez Nick Derba NR Colby Rasmus 1
Josh Phelps Gabe Johnson NR Jaime Garcia 2
Rico Washington Matt Pagnozzi NR Bryan Anderson 3
Mark Johnson Brandon Yarbrough NR Chris Perez 4
Dewon Brazelton David Carpenter NR Adam Ottavino 5
Hugo Castellanos Clayton Mortensen 6
Ron Flores Tyler Herron 7
Cliff Politte David Freese 11a
John Wasdin Mitchell Boggs 16
Ron Villone P.J. Walters 17
Juan Gonzalez Stuart Pomeranz 23
Nick Stavinoha 25
NR = not ranked Amaury Marti NR

Starting on the right, the 2008 NRI prospect list is of the same length (13 players) as 2009 and they are pretty comparable in terms of prospect ranking. Yet, none of the extra catchers made my 2008 top 40 prospect list.

The primary difference between the 29 NRIs last year and the 20 this year is in the veteran minor league free agent column on the left. Gone this time are the journeyman roster fillers clearly destined for Triple-A Memphis.

Take a good look at the names of those 11 2008 NRIs. With the exception of Ron Villone, who made the big league club out of camp because Tyler Johnson couldn’t answer the bell, none of these players contributed to the 2008 Cardinals.

I submit that with the improving Cardinals prospect pipeline, the 2009 Memphis Redbirds will be a competitive team even without the John Wasdins and D’Angelo Jimenez’s on the roster.

Even better yet, the lucky 13 prospects slated to arrive in big league camp in just three weeks should receive more instruction, more innings and more at-bats as they strive to impress the staff and perhaps make their first major league roster.

The cream of that prospect crop, players like Rasmus, Wallace and Freese, just might have what it takes to join Pujols in that very elite club of NRI spring achievers.

Bottom line, I am all for the slimming down the non-roster invitee list for 2009 in terms of quantity and excited about the quality.


In part two of this article, I will look at NRI highlights from past Cardinals spring camps each year from 2001 through 2008.

“Frankie and the Teenagers” to play in St. Louis


While one of my non-baseball interests is classic rock-‘n-roll, I am not announcing a new greatest hits package by the 1950’s doo-wop hit-makers and Rock and Roll Hall of Fame inductees, Frankie Lymon and the Teenagers.

Instead, I hereby re-apply the moniker to the 2009 St. Louis Cardinals bullpen, headlined by veteran Ryan Franklin, aka Frankie. The nine-year veteran is the leader of the band with over 1000 career innings in the majors.

The group behind Franklin when the club breaks camp from Jupiter, Florida at the end of March could include six far less-experienced relievers. While veteran left-hander Trever Miller and righty Brad Thompson have accrued over 700 big-league innings of work between them, the other four are greener than the infield grass that surrounds Busch Stadium’s mound.

While not true teenagers anymore, the quartet is certainly made up of baseball teenagers, with a total of just under 130 career MLB innings among them. They are lefty Charlie Manning and right-handers Josh Kinney, Jason Motte and Chris Perez. The fresh-faced Thompson could also fit right in with the Cards’ budding kiddie corps.

2009 Career IP subtotal
Ryan Franklin 1047.7
Trever Miller 422.3
Brad Thompson 305.7
subtotal 1775.7
Charlie Manning 42
Chris Perez 41.7
Josh Kinney 32
Jason Motte 11
subtotal 126.7
total 1902.3

Noticeably absent from this initial group is Kyle McClellan. The club’s Rookie of the Year last season when working out of the bullpen is fully preparing for spring as a starter. Yet the right-hander has just 75 2/3 career MLB innings himself. So the 2009 picture wouldn’t change if he was inserted instead of one of the others.

Lefty Royce Ring could also be considered instead of Manning. He has managed to stay up only long enough to have pitched 65 2/3 big-league innings over his four-year career. That is not much difference from Manning’s 42.

Since 1900 total pen innings are tough to put into perspective standing alone, I looked the Cardinals’ top seven relievers last season in terms of innings pitched and their total MLB experience coming into 2008.

2008 Then-career IP
Ron Villone 1069.3
Ryan Franklin 968.7
Jason Isringhausen 864.7
Russ Springer 747.3
Brad Thompson 241
Randy Flores 182.3
Kyle McClellan 0
4073.3

As you can see, last year’s group in aggregate came into the season with over double the number of MLB mound innings than the projected 2009 gang. Of the four pitchers with over 700 career innings, three are gone for this coming season.

Not only are the experience levels dramatically different from season to season, Franklin and Thompson are the only carryovers from the top seven 2008 pen workload leaders.

To make sure that 2008-2009 wasn’t a fluke, I extended my analysis back each season in the La Russa years, again looking at the aggregate experience coming into that year by the seven that would become the busiest relievers.

“Leaders of the band” denote the team’s most experienced reliever while “Roadie” designate the one of the seven with the fewest career innings pitched coming into that season.

Bullpen Career IP YTY Leader of the band IP Roadie IP
2009 1902.3 -2171 Ryan Franklin 1047.7 Jason Motte 11
2008 4073.3 1427 Ron Villone 1069.3 Kyle McClellan 0
2007 2646.3 1139.3 Ryan Franklin 888.7 Kelvin Jimenez 0
2006 1507 -2127.7 Jason Isringhausen 741 Adam Wainwright 2
2005 3634.7 9.7 Cal Eldred 1331 Brad Thompson 0
2004 3625 -855 Cal Eldred 1264 Kiko Calero 38.3
2003 4480 2209.3 Jeff Fassero 1738 Kiko Calero 0
2002 2270.7 527 Mike Timlin 698.7 Mike Crudale 0
2001 1743.7 -732.7 Mike Timlin 626 Mike Matthews 9.3
2000 2476.3 678 Heathcliff Slocumb 562.3 Gene Stechschulte 0
1999 1798.3 -108 Heathcliff Slocumb 500.3 Rich Croushore 54.3
1998 1906.3 -2044 Jeff Brantley 723.7 Rich Croushore 0
1997 3950.3 -2475.3 Dennis Eckersley 3193 Rigo Beltran 0
Brady Raggio 0
1996 6425.7 Dennis Eckersley 3133 Cory Bailey 23.7

There’s a lot to consume here, but what jumps out at me first is the experience drain of 2171 innings from last year to this. That represents the pen’s biggest year-to-year decrease since 1997, Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan’s second season in St. Louis.

Surprisingly, “Frankie and the Teenagers”, aka the projected 2009 pen, isn’t the least experienced combo in recent Cardinals seasons, though.

That mark belongs to the group of 2006 relievers, ironically during what became the World Championship regular season. That year, beyond Jason Isringhausen and Braden Looper, the other five relievers each had fewer than 100 career innings on the big mound. The man who would become the post-season star, interim closer Adam Wainwright, had collected just six major league outs coming into the year.

That reminds us there is much more to the end game than just innings pitched.

It remains to be seen whether this summer Cardinals fans will be crying, “Why Do Fools Fall in Love?” about this 2009 version of “Frankie and the Teenagers” or whether they’ll be filling the aisles while touting them for a different Hall of Fame.


(As always, special thanks to Lee Sinins’ “Complete Baseball Encyclopedia”, a fast and efficient way to look at players’ partial careers and to answer a million other “what if?” questions, too!)

Could Glaus miss two months?


St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Troy Glaus may miss up to five weeks of the 2009 regular season, not two as the club claimed, due to surgery to smooth or debride a muscle that runs from his upper chest to his right, throwing shoulder, according to Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch on Friday. An earlier report that the labrum was involved was later corrected.

Since then, I have heard back from my injury expert, Rick Wilton of baseball-injury-report.com. With a long history in the area of baseball injuries, Wilton has an update of his own after spending part of the day Friday chasing down information.

It isn’t good.

Wilton has confirmed the labrum was not involved in Glaus’ surgery, which is positive, but notes there aren’t many similar muscular cases against which to refer.

“The good news is it does not include the labrum. The fact it does involve the muscle makes it a bit more complicated, only because there is not a lot of examples of this type of surgery involving only the muscle,” Wilton told me Friday afternoon.

The fact that it is a recurrence of an earlier problem is a major part of the reason for Wilton’s concern.

“Considering the fact he had issues with the same shoulder late last year tells us it is a chronic situation,” he explained.

Wilton has seen the club’s 12-week estimate and wonders if that may be a hitting/throwing milestone and further suggests even the five weeks to return to the lineup is most likely optimistic.

Considering the recurrence, type of procedure, recovery and rehab time, which could easily include some period in the minor leagues, Wilton summed up his view of when Glaus will be back this way:

“I’m guessing he will miss up to two months (or return in late May),” Wilton concluded.

Ouch and double ouch!

The 2008 All Ex-Cardinals Team


Several days ago, I unveiled the St. Louis Cardinals’ “Let ‘em Go” Team, made up of 18 players that were allowed to leave by the Cardinals via free agency this decade. The common thread was that once out of St. Louis, most all of the players were paid more money than they were worth and delivered less results.


I received some comments about the choice of the team, questioning whether I wasn’t ignoring several players the club let go that did better after leaving.


I would say that sticking to the original criteria of free agency, the answer is “no”. When also including players involved in trades, the list of solid players increases slightly in size, but the ultimate conclusion remains the same. One must also remember that those traded Cardinals did not represent a total loss to the organization, since players also came in the other direction.


Major league losses


In creating the “2008 All Ex-Cardinals Team”, the goal was to be complete by listing every former Cardinals major leaguer that suited up for any one of the other 29 major league clubs in 2008. With considerable assistance from Cardinals Best News Links’ Josh Jones, I was able to identify at least 41 such players.


I then selected my starting nine, noted in bold below. I submit that only four, Placido Polanco, Edgar Renteria, J.D. Drew and Dan Haren (pictured) would be starters if they were members of the 2009 Cardinals. Yet, only one of them left St. Louis as part of what I would now call a bad move.


With the benefit of hindsight, of the four, only Haren was a deal that I would not do today. Of course, he went to Oakland with two other players for Mark Mulder prior to the 2005 season. Haren has all the makings of being a star for years to come.


The others ultimately worked out fine for the Cardinals, as Polanco was part of the price of Scott Rolen. Rolen was once an All-Star, but was significantly outplayed in 2008 by Troy Glaus, who the Cardinals received in trade for him from Toronto.


Renteria went into a decline and didn’t earn his $40 million, while the Cards picked up 2006 World Series MVP David Eckstein instead at about half the price plus got top organizational prospect, outfielder Colby Rasmus as part of the compensation for losing Edgar.


Drew went to Atlanta for just one season as the Cards received Adam Wainwright as part of the take. Cardinals fans still thank you very much, John Schuerholz!


Including my other five “starters” in bold below along with the remainder of the 41 names, there are few that would even make all that great of reserves on the 2009 Cardinals. In other words, the majority of the still-active players that have left St. Louis aren’t that badly missed.

Player Pos Yrs StL 2008 MLB
Infield Gary Bennett C 2006-7 Dodgers
Mike DiFelice C 1996-7,2002 Rays
Mark Sweeney 1B 1995-7 Dodgers
Dmitri Young 1B 1996-7 Nationals
Marlon Anderson 2B 2004 Mets
Ronnie Belliard 2B 2006 Nationals
Miguel Cairo 2B 2001-3,7 Mariners
Mark Grudzielanek 2B 2005 Royals
Placido Polanco 2B 1998-2002 Tigers
David Eckstein SS 2005-7 Blue Jays/Dbacks
Hector Luna SS 2004-6 Blue Jays
Edgar Renteria SS 1999-2004 Tigers
Russell Branyan 3B 2007 Brewers
Abraham Nunez 3B 2005 Mets
Scott Rolen 3B 2002-7 Blue Jays
Fernando Tatis 3B 1998-2000 Mets
Outfield J.D. Drew OF 1998-2003 RedSox
Jim Edmonds OF 2000-7 Cubs
So Taguchi OF 2002-7 Phillies
Starters Dan Haren SP 2003-4 Diamondbacks
Jason Marquis SP 2004-6 Cubs
Matt Morris SP 1997-2005 Pirates
Jamie Moyer SP 1991 Phillies
Anthony Reyes SP 2005-8 Cardinals/Indians
Sidney Ponson SP 2006 Rangers/Yankees
Jeff Suppan SP 2004-6 Brewers
Brett Tomko SP 2003 Royals/Padres
Kip Wells SP 2007 Rockies/Royals
Relievers Kiko Calero RP 2003-4 A’s
Brian Falkenborg RP 2006-7 Dodgers/Padres
Ray King RP 2004-5 Nationals
Mike Lincoln RP 2004 Reds
Kent Mercker RP 1998-9 Reds
Darren Oliver RP 1998-9 Angels
Troy Percival RP 2007 Rays
Al Reyes RP 2004-5 Rays
Ricardo Rincon RP 2006 Mets
Jorge Sosa RP 2006 Mets
Julian Tavarez RP 2004-5 Red Sox/Brewers/Braves
Mike Timlin RP 2000-2 Red Sox
Jamey Wright RP 2002 Rangers


Minor league losses


In addition to the 41 former Cardinals major leaguers above, another 15 ex-Cardinals minor leaguers appeared somewhere in the majors during the 2008 campaign.


We can’t quite field a full lineup from this group, as there is no third baseman, for example. In addition, the number of former minor league outfielders and starting pitchers that put on an MLB uniform last season is very small at two and one, respectively.


With the exception of Jack Wilson and Coco Crisp, traded away almost a decade prior, eight and nine years ago respectively, there are no real impact players among this group. As such, any real damage the Cardinals caused by minor leaguers being traded away was initiated a long time ago.


For all the gnashing of teeth at the time over prospect Daric Barton going to the A’s in the Mulder deal, to date Barton has arguably been as big of a disappointment in Oakland as Mulder was in St. Louis. As noted above, Haren was the big loss.

Player Pos Yrs StL Highest level 2008 MLB
Infield Robinson Cancel C 2005 Memphis Mets
Michel Hernandez C 2006 Memphis Rays
Danny Ardoin C 2007 Memphis Dodgers
Daric Barton 1B 2003-4 Peoria A’s
Edgar Gonzalez 2B 2007 Memphis Padres
Jolbert Cabrera 2B 2007 Memphis Reds
Jack Wilson SS 1998-2000 Arkansas Pirates
Outfield Coco Crisp OF 1999-2001 Potomac Red Sox
Emil Brown OF 2004 Memphis A’s
Pitchers Chris Lambert SP 2004-7 Memphis Tigers
Matt Ginter RP 2007 Memphis Indians
Joe Nelson RP 2005 Springfield Marlins
Vladimir Nunez RP 2005 Memphis Braves
Rich Rundles RP 2006 Springfield Indians
Les Walrond RP 1998-2003 Memphis Phillies


The newest ex-Cardinals


The final group presented is the new additions to the first list for 2009 – at least the ones that can find MLB jobs next season will be. This group of 15 players all saw action for the 2008 Cardinals (or were on the disabled list all year) but left the organization following the season.


Other than outfielders, of which there is only one, Juan Encarnacion, a full lineup could be fielded from these departed 2008 Cardinals. One, Kelvin Jimenez, left via a waiver claim. Three, Rico Washington, Mark Johnson and Josh Phelps, became minor league free agents after they were also dropped from the 40-man roster. Two more, Aaron Miles and Tyler Johnson, were arbitration-eligible, but were non-tendered instead.


The other nine were granted free agency, of which six are pitchers, two are infielders and the last is outfielder Encarnacion, who suffered a career-ending eye injury late in the 2007 season.


Of the nine, it is most interesting to note that all six free agent pitchers are still looking for a place to play in 2009. The only two to have signed are the middle infielders Felipe Lopez (Arizona) and shortstop Cesar Izturis (Baltimore). Non-tendered middle infield utilityman Miles also wasn’t out of work very long.


That seems to be a combination of a soft pitching market and the relative scarcity of decent middle infielders. Otherwise, it is pretty safe to say demand has been weak for the more recent group of departing Redbirds.

Player Pos 2009 organization
Infield Mark Johnson C Cubs
Josh Phelps 1B Giants
Aaron Miles 2B Cubs
Felipe Lopez 2B Dbacks
Cesar Izturis SS Orioles
Rico Washington 3B FA
Outfield Juan Encarnacion OF FA
Pitchers Braden Looper SP FA
Mark Mulder SP FA
Randy Flores RP FA
Jason Isringhausen RP FA
Kelvin Jimenez RP White Sox
Tyler Johnson RP FA
Russ Springer RP FA
Ron Villone RP FA


In conclusion


While there are a handful of still very fine players among the 71 ex-Cardinals organization players listed here, most are not difference-makers. Instead, for the vast majority, it is probably better both for them and the Cardinals that they are playing their future ball elsewhere.

Cardinals minor matters – January 22


Glaus surprise shoulder surgery held

The Cardinals announced Thursday that third baseman Troy Glaus underwent arthroscopic surgery on Wednesday, January 21 for the debridement of his right shoulder.  The surgery was performed by Dr. Lewis Yocum in Los Angeles, California.  Glaus will begin physical therapy next week and his recovery is estimated by the club to be 12 weeks.

The late timing of the surgery in the off-season means Glaus will miss at least the first two weeks of the regular season. That opens the door for a pair of third base prospects, David Freese and Brett Wallace, to compete for a first-time ever MLB roster spot. Outfielder Joe Mather is also scheduled to see time at third base during spring training and though primarily a middle infielder, Brendan Ryan can also play there.

GM John Mozeliak will meet with the press this afternoon to answer the obvious question, “Why now?” Glaus just returned from last weekend’s Winter Warm-up, where there was no indication of injury or impending surgery.

Update: The Post-Dispatch reports Glaus had been troubled by the shoulder since last season and rest was prescribed. His discomfort returned as he began preparations for 2009 and he informed the club several weeks ago. A recent injection did not help, so surgery was set.


Templeton Golden again

The Long Beach (CA) Armada of the independent Golden Baseball League announced that former Cardinals shortstop Garry Templeton will return to the league as manager of their team for the 2009 season. A former skipper in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League (2001-02), Templeton also managed in the GBL from 2005-2007.



Laying down the prospect Law

In a Wednesday ESPN Insider article, baseball analyst Keith Law ranks the Cardinals’ system number six of the 30 MLB organizations. Comments are positive about three top “star” prospects, which include Colby Rasmus (#12), Brett Wallace (#19 – pictured) and Daryl Jones (#50). Chris Perez also made the list at #80. System depth and impact are complemented.

I did see one other thing worth noting. Law seems very excited about the (#1) Rangers’ integration of amateur, professional and international scouting along with their baseball operations staffs. He notes the Red Sox (#7) and Rays (#2) have also gone down this path. In what seems an oversight, Jeff Luhnow and the Cardinals are not mentioned, however.

Law’s remaining top 100 prospects have now been posted, with prospects #1-25 free and the remainder subscriber-only content, providing a welcome diversion during an increasingly-tedious off-season.

I’ll update this section later if I have anything more to say after seeing Law’s full descriptions.


Jay McGwire squeals for cash

I had already posted this link on the La Russa/Mc Gwire thread, but wanted to call it out here, as well.

I’m not a fan of Deadspin’s brand of internet “journalism”, especially after they had to recant their slanderous steroid accusations against Albert Pujols’ trainer that therefore indirectly implicated Albert.

Now they have another Cards-related ‘roids story – this one about Mark McGwire’s brother Jay’s proposed new book. The estranged little brother and body builder seems to be in a debate with Jose Canseco over who injected Big Mac first.

It’s really sad what people will do for money…


Legends camp tightening security

Although I can’t imagine why other than the possibility of autograph hound control perhaps, the annual Cardinals Legends Camp being held this weekend in Jupiter, is being closed to the public. Family members will still be allowed, but that is it, according to the TC Palm.

The Mets’ nearby camp, running in parallel to the Cards’, is open to all, although I would imagine the over-30 fantasy campers themselves are not the attraction. Instead it would be the former major leaguers invited to coach.

For the Cardinals, the invitees included Lou Brock, Whitey Herzog, Jack Clark, Danny Cox, Ken Dayley, Bob Forsch, Tom Herr, Rick Horton, Al Hrabosky, Mike LaValliere, Dave LaPoint, Tom Lawless, John Mabry, Ted Savage, Scott Terry, and Todd Worrell. Of course, since camp is closed, we may not know which ones showed up!

For those considering this splurge next year, the prices this time around ranged from $4,295-$7,495 for five days of action. More info here.


Crusin’ again?

Another annual event that occurs after Winter Warm-up and Spring Training is the Cardinals Cruise. This year, the sold-out event departs from Ft. Lauderdale on February 1 and returns on the 8th. 2010 information is not yet available but I am told by the folks at Altair Travel and Cruises that their brochures will be available in one month.


Wainwright/Pence win Darryl Kile Awards

Over at Scout.com, I saluted Adam Wainwright, this year’s winner of a rarely-noted, but most important piece of recognition voted upon by Cardinals players and run by the local Baseball Writers of Association Chapter, the Darryl Kile Award.

The Astros also initiated a similar “Good Guy” Award upon Kile’s passing with their first winner being his former Houston teammate Jeff Bagwell. This past weekend, outfielder Hunter Pence took their 2009 honor.


Vuch picks up award

Speaking of good guys, MLB.com’s recap of Monday’s St. Louis Baseball Writers Dinner mentioned another award winner, Cardinals Director of Minor League Operations John Vuch. He was given the Harry Mitauer Good Guy Award – a most appropriate choice.

“I would have been flattered if they just told me my name came up in the conversation, let alone being the recipient,” Matthew Leach reported the humble and talented Vuch as saying.

Congratulations, John!


Liga Paralela results

For those interested in the how the Cardinals recruits fared this winter in the Liga Paralela in Venezuela, check out Josh Jones’ series of detailed reports over at Cardinals Best News Links. He has covered the hitters so far, with the pitchers up next. This is information you can’t get anywhere else.

How Glaus began his professional career in Venezuela


News item: Preston Gomez dies at 86; consultant was with Angels for 27 years

In a sad note, Preston Gomez passed away a few days ago. The former major league pitcher, coach and consultant had been a member of the professional baseball community since 1944, most recently with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

In 1969, baseball pioneer Gomez became just the second Latin American manager in the history of MLB when he was hired to lead the expansion San Diego Padres. After his 1972 firing, he also managed the Houston Astros (1974-75) and Chicago Cubs (1980).

Prior to Gomez, the only other manager born in Latin America was a fellow Cuban, Miguel Angel “Mike” Gonzalez, who led the St. Louis Cardinals on an interim basis in 1938 and 1940, reported the LA Times.

Gomez first joined the then-California Angels organization in 1981 as their major league third-base coach. After four seasons in the role, he became a special assistant to the general manager in 1985.

Gomez was also very active in baseball in Latin America, first leading the La Guaira Sharks of the Venezuelan League back in the winter of 1972-73 and serving several stints in the role.

Fast forward to 1997 when UCLA shortstop Troy Glaus became the Angels’ first-round pick in the June draft, taken third overall. After long negotiations, he finally signed in September, receiving a substantial signing bonus of $2.25 million.

As a result of the late signing, Glaus first headed to Arizona for the Halos’ fall instructional league camp. There, in a most unusual move, Gomez convinced Glaus to travel to Venezuela to make his professional debut for La Guaira that winter.


It was feasible for Glaus to take such a step because of his advanced development as a player. He had been the San Diego Padres’ second-round pick coming out of high school in 1994, but did not sign. With the Bruins, he led his club to the College World Series, batted .344 over three seasons, was the Pac-10 Player of the Year and shattered Mark McGwire’s single-season conference home run record.


In the 1996 Olympics, Glaus was the starting third baseman for Team USA and among his accomplishments was hitting four home runs at Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium, then the Atlanta Braves’ home park. His minor league career would only last four months before his first call up to Anaheim in July, 1998.


Though the media guides of the various clubs for which Glaus later played do not acknowledge this, he became the first and only future major league player to make his professional debut when he suited up for La Guaira in the 1997-1998 Venezuelan Winter League, according to the Sharks.


As it turned out, Glaus’ memories of the event were not fond ones. According to reports at the time, Glaus battled stomach ailments during his stint in Venezuela and lost 25 pounds. Accordingly, his on-field results were less than stellar, as he hit only .233 with two home runs in 50 games.

“The food and water were bad,” Glaus told the LA Times at the time, “but it made you learn how to try to be successful even when you don’t feel very well.”

Fast forward to today. Ironically, one of the top candidates to replace Glaus as the Cardinals third baseman in 2010, David Freese, was among organizational farmhands sent to Venezuela this winter.


Like Glaus, Freese’s Latin American stint was generally unfulfilling. The 25-year-old hit .235 with three home runs and eight RBIs in 14 games playing for the Caribes de Anzoategui of the Venezuelan League.


One report out of Venezuela was that Freese’s services were terminated due to results on the field. Another article hinted of a financial dispute. Freese himself attributed his early return home to a left wrist injury that required examination in St. Louis.


Whatever the reason, the Cardinals as an organization remain committed to Venezuela all year round.


Under the watchful eyes of former Cardinals Gulf Coast League manager Enrique Brito and Minor League Hitting Coordinator Dan Radison, a number of farmhands played there this winter, including Springfield’s Luke Gregerson and Jose Martinez. The Cards also had scores of younger players competing in a pair of winter minor leagues in the country.


The Cardinals have 38 players under contract on their Venezuelan Summer League roster, most of whom are natives. Up the line in the Cardinals system, there are another two dozen Venezuelans, including second baseman Martinez as well as a pair of exciting teenagers, pitcher Richard Castillo and outfielder Frederick Parejo. Former Cards shortstop Cesar Iztruis also calls the country home.

Director of International Operations Moises Rodriguez told me this recently: “Our plan is to build an academy in Venezuela, operate in the same manner as we do in the Dominican Republic and our goal is to produce players. We feel there is talent to be had there,” Rodriguez said.

Note: For more details on Cardinals players competing in winter ball, make sure you check out the “Cardinals Winter League Notebook” at Cardinals Best News Links.

Arbitration update: Ankiel and Ludwick figures


Rather than start a new discussion, I appended Tuesday’s arbitration amounts for outfielders Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick and my reaction to the earlier post where I had predicted the final salaries for the players. This post is simple a reminder to join the discussion there.

A brief summary of Tuesday’s news:

Ludwick: $4.25 million, Cardinals: $2.8 million (midpoint: $3.525 million)
My earlier estimate: $4 million (will probably end up too high if they settle pre-hearing)
Actual salary: TBD

Ankiel: $3.3 million, Cardinals: $2.35 million (midpoint: $2.825 million)
My earlier estimate: $3.25 million (will probably end up too high if they settle pre-hearing)
Actual salary: TBD


Please click on the highlighted link to head over to the January 6 post entitled “What might Ludwick, Ankiel, Wellemeyer, Thompson and Duncan make via arbitration?” to read much more on the subject and comment there to keep the related discussion in one place. As always, your perspectives are encouraged.

In the arbitration process, the next steps are as follows:

  • Each player may continue to negotiate with the club if both sides so choose.

  • A hearing date for sometime during the first three weeks in February will be scheduled.

  • If there is no resolution prior to that date, both sides will present their case to a three-person team of arbiters.

  • The panel will select one amount or the other for a one-year contract – the amount the player submitted on Tuesday or the club’s amount – with no compromise allowed.

Mac declines La Russa’s suggestion to speak up


This spring, former St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Mark McGwire has once again chosen to remain out of the spotlight, even as Tony La Russa continues to encourage him to return to the game. Now, his former manager has upped the ante on the heels of McGwire’s failed 2009 Hall of Fame candidacy and eroding voter support.

Knowing this story has not yet reached its conclusion, La Russa is now publicly advocating an approach to unlock the ex-slugger’s moribund Hall chances that I have pushed for years – speak up for yourself, Mark!

Having played the role of McGwire’s chief public defender since the player went underground following his embarrassing March 2005 Congressional testimony, La Russa has finally suggested the player answer questions about his past – precisely what Big Mac wouldn’t do four years ago.

Since then, the baseball landscape has changed with the Mitchell Report, enhanced testing and other players able to move on after admitting various PED-related activities in their pasts. Yet McGwire remains silent in his self-imposed purgatory.

Again this spring, La Russa invited McGwire to be a spring training coach, which would also offer the vehicle for McGwire to clear the air – the familiar and comfortable environment of the Cardinals complex in Jupiter, Florida, where access can be controlled.

In Monday’s New York Times, La Russa said this:

“I think if he came to spring training and was seen, so the writers and the fans could say, ‘There’s Mark,’ and answer whatever they want,” La Russa said, “I think that would go a long way, in my opinion.”

However, once again, McGwire has declined to come to Florida with the Cardinals in 2009. Undaunted, La Russa vowed to keep inviting him every year. With 12 more possible years on the HoF ballot, apparently McGwire is in no hurry.

Mac is still out there in the shadows. As recently as this past weekend’s Winter Warm-up fan fest, outfielder Skip Schumaker acknowledged his winter regimen includes hitting with McGwire in California. The ex-Cardinal told La Russa he is still in playing shape today, not that it matters anymore.

Big Mac’s long-time skipper reaffirmed his Hall support of his ex-player, noting the retired slugger’s numbers make him worthy.

“I believe this: His production, I think, is Hall of Fame quality,” La Russa asserted.

Of course, even Tony knows the real issue isn’t about numbers; it’s about refusing to discuss the past.

“If it’s a question of what did he do to make himself stronger that wasn’t legal, and that’s kind of a character-and-integrity issue,” La Russa said. “If it’s a character-and-integrity issue, how many guys do we know who did what Mark did?”

La Russa went on to cite the example of McGwire walking away from the game with money remaining on his contract as a character reference, as if that would somehow magically negate the steroid allegations.

Coach Dave McKay’s strength and conditioning programs were also again defended by the manager, asserting McKay ran a “100 percent straight” workout program in Oakland. Yet in what seems to be a moderation of past comments, La Russa admits lack of 24-hour supervision meant all may not have been known.

“Now, as José (Canseco) said, when you go to the toilet or you leave the ballpark, Dave didn’t control that,” La Russa said.

Previously, La Russa’s platform was that neither he nor his coaches saw any questionable activity by McGwire and because Mac said he was innocent, therefore he was. Instead, the above comment seems much more realistic, as any parent of teenagers might attest.

Speaking of control, there isn’t any more La Russa can do to control Hall of Fame voters to alter their lack of support of McGwire. With the exception of one or two comments perhaps, Tony has made these same points in defending McGwire many times.

For the first time in my recollection, and I have followed this story closely for some time, La Russa has publicly urged McGwire to clear the air.

I say “bravo” to that. McGwire belongs in the Hall, but it doesn’t look like he is going to get there unless he takes responsibility for change.

Cardinals television update – 01/19/09


This the time of year when news of television schedules for all major league clubs start to trickle out. Of course that includes the St. Louis Cardinals. This post is an update of my January 8 report.


MLB Network and spring games

Probably the main reason for this post is my excitement over the MLB Network’s television plans for spring training. Starting on February 25, their published schedule lists three live spring games at 1 pm, 4 pm and 7 pm Eastern on most days.

Teams are not yet announced, but it seems logical that MLB Network might pick up some feeds from team-oriented networks. Of course, the schedules could change, but I consider this very good news.

MLB Network will also provide televised coverage of selected World Baseball Classic games, as well.


Cardinals to be featured on MLB Network

MLB Network plans to travel around to all 30 clubs’ spring training camps and will be running a daily program covering one team per day. The Cardinals’ day in the spotlight will be on Friday, February 27.

The one-hour program will run four times, three times on the 27th with the first actually scheduled at 11:30 pm Eastern the night before, on February 26.

“An In-Depth Look at the 2009 Team Featuring Player, Coach and GM Interviews; Expert Analysis on Personnel and Other Decisions for the Upcoming Regular Season,” says their program schedule.


First opponent spring TV game

The Minnesota Twins have announced their spring television schedule with their Sunday, March 29th game against the visiting Cardinals among the telecasts. The game will start at 1:05 pm ET and will be on local Minneapolis-St. Paul WFTC-29 and Fox Sports North.


Big FOX regular season games

The Cardinals are already scheduled on the national FOX network for nine regular season Saturday afternoon games, including three during April. This is in addition to the April 19 Cubs game previously put on the ESPN schedule. In fact, five of the ten national games are against the Chicagoans.

The games:

Sat., April 11 vs. Astros FOX

Sat., April 18 @ Cubs FOX

Sun., April 19 @ Cubs ESPN

Sat., April 25 vs. Cubs FOX

Sat., June 14 @ Indians FOX

Sat., July 11 @ Cubs FOX

Sat., July 25 @ Phillies FOX

Sat., August 1 vs. Astros FOX

Sat., September 12 vs. Braves FOX

Sat., September 19 vs. Cubs FOX

We also now know that Fox Sports Midwest will be covering 130 regular season games this coming season. Assuming all 162 games will be televised, that leaves 21 contests that are likely candidates for local KSDK Channel 5. Typically they are Sunday afternoon games.


Winter Warm-up specials on FS Midwest

Remember that starting tomorrow Tuesday, January 20, Fox Sports Midwest kicks off their 2009 coverage of Cardinals baseball with two 30-minute specials recapping the Cardinals Winter Warm-up and looking ahead to the upcoming season. Details here.

Is there a business reason to play Colby?


Other than the perceived cheapness and inaction of ownership, arguably the biggest St. Louis Cardinals story of this long 2008-2009 off-season is the timing of the long-awaited arrival in the major leagues of top prospect Colby Rasmus.

To date, almost all of the Rasmus discussion has been rightly focused upon the on-field issues. This article is going to look at the subject from the business side, rather than the baseball side only.

I have stated on many occasions my reasoning as to why the outfielder would likely not make the major league club coming out of 2009 spring training. The net version is this:

  • There are five or six outfielders ahead of Rasmus.
  • The Cards could control Rasmus from a free agency perspective one year longer if he starts his first MLB season in the minors.

Recent comments from general manager John Mozeliak have begun to erode my resolve slightly, as the GM has acknowledged that he can envision a scenario in which six outfielders, including Colby, could come north with the Cardinals.

Of course, the players still have to play in spring training and nothing is set.

Shaky business environment

On the business side, certainly we’ve heard concerns about the economy’s potential impact on Major League Baseball in 2009 from the commissioner down to the “keeping their powder dry” owners of the Cardinals.

From all appearances, the Cards are preparing for a decline in revenue for the 2009 season. I’ve heard of special incentives being offered to fans when purchasing one of the many ticket packages available. The AP has observed down attendance at the Cardinals Winter Warm-up fan fest.

One way to put fans in the seats is to offer a shiny new facility. Unfortunately, the Cardinals have already done that with the opening of the new Busch Stadium in 2006.

Another approach is to field a sure-fire winning team steaming toward the post-season. Sadly, the reality is that the Cardinals have missed the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, despite playing winning baseball. I am not alone in my on-paper analysis that the 2009 club will again have to fight for the wild card to secure the opportunity to keep playing into mid-October.

Yet another sure way to get customers into the ballpark is to have a compelling storyline unfold, such as Mark McGwire’s 1998 quest to break the single-season home run record. Alas, unless you consider the likelihood of Albert Pujols competing for his second consecutive National League Most Valuable Player award, sadly an event taken for granted by many, prospects of such a 2009 draw seems unlikely.

Then I got to wondering. Could the presence of the hottest new rookie in the league put rear ends in the Busch Stadium seats?

Specifically, is there potential business value to the Cardinals to placing Rasmus on the major league roster and letting him play all season long?

Might such an act also come back around to potentially address some of the bad feelings permeating the team’s fan base?

Now I want to make it clear up front that I realize there are many factors, some much more compelling, that come together to determine how many fans will attend a club’s home games each season.

I am also not saying Rasmus is a lock to become the 2009 NL Rookie of the Year. Yet I cannot imagine anyone disagreeing with my assumption that he could be a prime candidate if he was actually in the big leagues and playing his kind of baseball every day.

Looking back

I began by looking back at the home per-game attendance numbers during the initial season of each of the recent Rookie of the Year award winners across both leagues. I wanted to determine if there are any trends that might link a top youngster with a change in attendance.

I took as my sample the dozen most recent rookies of the year across MLB. I documented their club’s per-game home attendance during that season as well as the club’s turnstile ranking among the 30 MLB clubs. I compared that to the same numbers from the year before the rookie arrived on the scene.

I had to exclude one player from the group. Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park opened in 2004. Due to a different seating capacity and first-year excitement, attendance counts were skewed badly. Certainly the change should be attributed to the park, not the player. Therefore, Ryan Howard’s 2004-2005 comparison is purposely omitted.

Year Lg ROY Tm Att year Att rank Att yr -1 y-1 rk Att chg Rk chg
2008 AL Evan Longoria TB 22,259 26 17,130 29 5,129 3
NL Geovany Soto CHC 40,743 7 40,153 6 590 -1
2007 AL Dustin Pedroia Bos 36,679 11 36,189 10 490 -1
NL Ryan Braun Mil 35,421 12 28,835 17 6,586 5
2006 AL Justin Verlander Det 32,048 13 25,306 21 6,742 8
NL Hanley Ramirez Fla 14,372 30 22,871 28 -8,499 -2
2005 AL Huston Street Oak 26,038 19 27,179 19 -1,141 0
NL Ryan Howard * Phi
2004 AL Bobby Crosby Oak 27,179 19 27,365 17 -186 -2
NL Jason Bay Pit 21,107 27 20,983 26 124 -1
2003 AL Angel Berroa KC 22,732 22 17,182 27 5,550 5
NL Dontrelle Willis Fla 16,290 28 10,038 29 6,252 1
Total 15,385 14
Avg. per game 1399 1
* new ballpark

In eight of the eleven cases, attendance rose during the player’s rookie year compared to the prior season.

On the average, the difference was a one-place improvement in the MLB attendance rankings and 1,400 fans per game. However, to be fairer, we need to determine the general increase or decrease in per-game attendance across all of MLB and subtract it out to come up with our theoretical rookie-only impact.

Here are the MLB average attendances per game by year and compared to the previous year.

Year Attendance/game MLB YTY change
2008 32,543 -242
2007 32,785 1,360
2006 31,425 451
2005 30,974 573
2004 30,401 2,349
2003 28,052 -82
2002 28,134

Now we will combine the two tables. We can see that of the 1,400 fans-per-game increase across MLB, 764 of them were general growth that all teams on the average saw. The portion we might attribute to the presence of the rookie is the difference, 634 people per game.

Yr vs. Yr -1 Lg Rookie att change MLB att change Difference
2008 vs 07 AL 5,129 -242 5,371
NL 590 -242 832
2007 vs 06 AL 490 1,360 -870
NL 6,586 1,360 5,226
2006 vs 05 AL 6,742 451 6,291
NL -8,499 451 -8,950
2005 vs 04 AL -1,141 573 -1,714
NL
2004 vs 03 AL -186 2,349 -2,535
NL 124 2,349 -2,225
2003 vs 02 AL 5,550 -82 5,632
NL 6,252 82 6,170
Total 15,385 8,409 6,976
Avg / game 1,399 764 634

Over the course of an 81-game home slate, that works out to an attendance increase of 51,354 for the regular season. With the Cardinals’ average ticket price of $28 (per Forbes), that could bring in another $1.44 million in gate revenue alone.

Not a bad return for a player that would cost just $400,000 in salary, also surely less that the player he would be replacing on the roster.

Looking ahead

To continue the look and possibly provide additional substantiation, I did a similar analysis for these same 12 rookies, but this time looking ahead to the next season following their respective rookie campaigns instead of backward.

One might speculate that part of the rookie’s halo effect on fan attendance may carry over into the next year. If you can buy the year one connection offered above, the data does seem to support a year two impact, too.

Of course, this removes the two 2008 Rookies of the Year from consideration, since we don’t know yet how their clubs will draw in 2009.

Year Lg ROY Tm Att year Att rank Att yr +1 y+1 rk Att chg Rk chg
2008 AL Evan Longoria TB 22,259 26 TBD
NL Geovany Soto CHC 40,743 7 TBD
2007 AL Dustin Pedroia Bos 36,679 11 37,632 10 953 1
NL Ryan Braun Mil 35,421 12 37,882 9 2,461 3
2006 AL Justin Verlander Det 32,048 13 37,619 9 5,571 4
NL Hanley Ramirez Fla 14,372 30 16,619 30 2,247 0
2005 AL Huston Street Oak 26,038 19 24,402 26 -1,636 -7
NL Ryan Howard Phi 33,316 13 34,200 11 884 2
2004 AL Bobby Crosby Oak 27,179 19 26,038 19 -1,141 0
NL Jason Bay Pit 21,107 27 23,003 27 1,896 0
2003 AL Angel Berroa KC 22,732 22 21,031 28 -1,701 -6
NL Dontrelle Willis Fla 16,290 28 22,091 26 5,801 2
Total 9,534 -3
Avg. per game 953 0

Seven of the ten clubs saw an increase in attendance the year following their player’s Rookie of the Year season, averaging 953 more fans per game. Ironically, after taking out the general attendance increase across MLB, the remainder which we are claiming to the benefit of the presence of the Rookie of the Year is 635 fans. That is basically identical to the 634 incremental fans noted in year one.

Yr vs. Yr +1 Lg Rookie att change MLB att change Difference
2008 vs 09 AL TBD TBD
NL TBD TBD
2007 vs 08 AL 953 -242 1,195
NL 2,461 -242 2,703
2006 vs 07 AL 5,571 1,360 4,211
NL 2,247 1,360 887
2005 vs 06 AL -1,636 451 -2,087
NL 884 451 433
2004 vs 05 AL -1,141 573 -1,714
NL 1,896 573 1,323
2003 vs 04 AL -1,701 2,349 -4,050
NL 5,801 2,349 3,452
Total 9,534 8,982 6,353
Avg / game 953 898 635

Assuming no ticket price increases, those 635 additional people every game would potentially generate the same $1.44 million in ticket revenue alone the season following the rookie year.

In addition, the fan goodwill generated by promoting Rasmus right away cannot be measured, but it could be substantial.

If the Cardinals decide to go this way and Rasmus brings his “A game” to start the season, the resulting positive impact would surely stretch beyond the numbers on this page.

Pujols recovery tangles WBC participation


In a report published on Monday by ElHeraldo.com.co, a Barranquilla, Colombia newspaper, Stan Javier, the general manager of the Dominican Republic team for the World Baseball Classic, was quoted as saying that St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols is one of six of his country’s players that may be out of the games due to recovery from injury.

Javier, a former major league player and son of former Cardinals second baseman Julian Javier, was interviewed on the Dominican Republic’s Channel 13’s “Sports Week” on Sunday. El Heraldo apparently picked up that report, which includes direct quotes attributed to Javier. The other Dominican players mentioned are David Ortiz, Fausto Carmona, Francisco Liriano, Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Pena.

I should reinforce that this news should be considered unofficial and has not yet been verified. At times in the past, news reports out of the Caribbean have been erroneous. The telephone-like chain in this case adds to the risk.

We may know very soon, however. At 6 pm EDT today, Monday, provisional rosters for each of the 16 countries participating in the WBC will be released. These 45-man rosters are not the final 28 players that will be active for each team in the tournament. That list is not due until February 24. However, the final 28 must be selected from the 45-man provisional lists.

In Pujols’ specific case, he is speaking this afternoon at the Cardinals’ Winter Warm-up fan event in St. Louis and I hope to confirm or refute his part of the report later today.

The second World Baseball Classic will run from March 5-23.


Update (1/19, 3:15 pm CST): Speaking at WWU, Pujols acknowledged there is an insurance-related hold up over him (and others) coming off injury. However, he reiterated his excitement about playing in the WBC.

One would think that if the players want to play, these issues will be resolved.

Pujols said that he is already hitting but hasn’t thrown yet, and will not do so until spring camp. If he feels any twinge in the elbow, he will pull out of the WBC.


Update #2 (1/19 6:00 pm CST): Here is a first look at provisional WBC rosters. I will add others as I get them. Remember that not all these guys will necessarily play.

USA: Ryan Ludwick
Puerto Rico: Joel Pineiro, Yadier Molina
Dominican Republic: Albert Pujols


Update #3 (1/19 6:45 pm CST): Matthew Leach has all the details: link. He thinks Pujols may not play after all, and Ludwick will decline.

“The provisional rosters also include five Cardinals Minor Leaguers. Pitcher Blake Hawksworth is on the Canadian roster, infielder Curt Smith is on the Dutch roster, and infielder Isa Garcia and pitcher Arquimedes Nieto are on the Venezuelan roster. Pitcher Adam Ottavino is on the Italian provisional roster.”


Update #4 (1/20 6:30 am CST): Joe Strauss fills in the insurance liability details. To their credit, the original Colombian/Dominican report was right on, in Pujols case at least.


Update #5 (1/20 1:30 pm CST) This is taking on a life of its own. An ESPN Deportes report in Spanish notes the first wave of Dominican players have arrived in camp in Jupiter, including Big Papi. Stan Javier is quoted as saying that Pujols and A-Rod are expected around the 27th or 28th. No mention of the insurance issue, though…

The Cardinals “Let ‘em Go” Team


Monitoring some of the squabble over on the Scout.com message board over the St. Louis Cardinals letting players go like utility infielder Aaron Miles, reliever Russ Springer, starter Braden Looper and even closer Jason Isringhausen seems an extension of the grilling general manager John Mozeilak has received at the Winter Warm-up fan fest this weekend.

Like so many of the off-season concerns expressed recently, they aren’t new. Yet over time, the facts seem to support the view that the Cardinals have done a pretty good job of letting players leave before they hit bottom.

The jury will be out for some time as to the wisdom of any of the recent departures including Miles’ case, the one that currently seems to be most anger-causing.

In the meantime, I thought I would put together a Cardinals “Let ‘em Go” Team from this decade, just to remind us all that the guys in charge of the team generally do seem to know what they are doing.

To qualify for this team, the Cardinals player had to leave St. Louis as a free agent since 2000 and sign a subsequent contract with a new organization. In some cases, the Cardinals may have been in the bidding, but at some point, another club bested their offer. Other times, St. Louis may never have made a serious bid for the player to return. In selecting players, strong preference was given to players that turned out to be overpaid and underperforming in their new locales.

With the late addition of first baseman John Mabry, I was able to build a full lineup, including five starting pitchers and a reliever throwing from each side. Given the middle infield churn in recent years, it wasn’t surprising that five of them are on the team. Outfield was the biggest challenge to fill, but ultimately, three examples could be found.

While most of these moves occurred on the watch of former GM Walt Jocketty, Mozeliak was previously his top assistant and seems to have adopted a similar stance in such matters.

I’ve been around long enough to remember each one of the situations listed below and recall at least some considerable segment of the Cardinal Nation complaining about the team’s loss every single time. Yet the reality is that it is a necessary part of the game.

In StL New tm New team $ Comp pks Results
Starters
Matt Morris 1997-05 SF + 3 yrs/$27M Perez Went 20-30 with a 5 ERA in 2+ years before abruptly retiring.
Furnish
Woody Williams 2001-04 SD + 1 yr/$3.5M Went 29-32 with 4.66 ERA for 3 years before retiring at 40.
Jeff Weaver 2006 SEA + 1 yr/$8.3M Went 7-13 with 6.20 ERA for ’07 Mariners. Now in minors.
Jeff Suppan 2004-06 MIL 4 yrs/$42M Mortensen 22-22 with 4.78 ERA in 2 years; 15 ERA in one playoff game.
Kopp
Jason Marquis 2004-06 CHC + 3 yrs/$21M More of same with CHC; booted from rotation & traded to COL.
Relievers
Julian Tavarez 2004-05 BOS + 2 yrs/$6.7M Left off BOS ’06 playoff roster, now a journeyman free agent.
Steve Kline 2001-04 BAL + 2 yrs/$5.5M Unpopular in BAL after wishing he’d stayed in StL.
Catcher
Mike Matheny 2000-04 SF 3 yrs/$10.5M Herron Due to concussions, played in just 181 games before retiring.
Infield
John Mabry 2004-05* CHC + 1 y/$1.075M Hit .205 for ’06 Cubs, got 34 ABs with COL in ’07 and retired.
Fernando Vina 2000-03 DET 2 yrs/$6M Hit .226 in 115 ABs for DET in ’04. Later comeback failed.
Craig Paquette 1999-01 DET 2 yrs/$5M DET got 280 ABs at a .189 rate before he retired.
Tony Womack 2004 NYY 2 yrs/$4M Lasted 108 gms in the Bronx. 28 more G in ’06 & was done.
David Eckstein 2005-07 TOR + 1 yr/$4.5M Already on 3rd team since StL. Signed w/SD for $850K for ’09.
Edgar Renteria 1999-04 BOS + 4 yrs/$40M Rasmus BOS paid $11M to get ATL to take him. On 4th team since StL.
McCormick
Abraham Nunez 2005 PHI + 2 yrs/$3.35M Hamilton Batted .221 next two years in PHI. Trying to get back to MLB.
Outfield
Reggie Sanders 2004-05 KC 2 yrs/$10M Only 408 ABs in KC due to knee and hamstrings, then retired.
So Taguchi 2002-07 PHI + 1 yr/$900K .220 avg in just 91 ABs for ’08 world champs. Now a Cub.
Eric Davis 1999-00 SF 1 yr/$1.5M Batted .205 in 156 ABs for ’01 Giants before hanging them up.

+ denotes having played with multiple clubs since leaving the Cardinals

* third and final stint with St. Louis

In many cases, the big savings was in money not spent. Matt Morris (pictured – $27 million) and Edgar Renteria ($40 million) are good examples of this.

For other ex-Cards, the savings came in the form of negatives avoided as the player’s results on the field dropped off badly upon leaving St. Louis. For example, among the starting pitchers, only Jason Marquis had an above-.500 record after leaving the Cards and he was recently booted out of the Cubs rotation before being shipped to pitching purgatory, otherwise known as Colorado. The Cubs also paid the Rox $875,000 to take him.

Other benefits were gained down the line in players received via compensatory draft picks. For example, the reason Chris Perez is the favorite to become the Cardinals closer is because the team received a supplemental pick when Morris signed with the San Francisco Giants. Even better is top prospect Colby Rasmus, selected with Boston’s first-round pick in 2005 forfeited when the Sox signed Renteria.

Finally, some gains were achieved in roster savings such as when popular outfield reserve So Taguchi departed, making room for a younger, more talented player such as Skip Schumaker.

Not all the divorces were amicable, as several of the departing players grumbled about having been left in limbo by the organization. In other words, their feelings were hurt over not being told their services were no longer required as the club evaluated alternatives.

Still, with the full benefit of hindsight, when looking at the end results is there a single player on this list that the Cardinals should have kept?

So rather than complain about Miles and the other 2008 Cardinals that are gone for 2009, at least wait until next season is over to pass judgment.

Cards minors strength and conditioning intern program continues


Prior to the 2007 season, then assistant GM John Mozeliak brought forward an innovative proposal with business case to add strength and conditioning interns at every level of the St. Louis Cardinals organization’s minor league system.

The idea was to not only focus on development of the prospects, but also to free up the existing minor league trainers for their primary job of injury prevention and of course treatment.

When introduced, the plan was for a group of locally-based interns to execute a consistent organization-wide conditioning program under the direction of the major league club’s longtime strength and conditioning coach Pete Prinzi.

The organization must be pleased with the results as they are continuing this program for a third season in 2009. They currently have posted job openings for strength and conditioning interns in both Memphis and Jupiter for the Redbirds and Palm Beach Cardinals, respectively.

Responsibilities include: “Work and travel with team, lead daily stretch and conditioning, supervise weight room, record weigh-ins, report to coordinator regularly.”

The positions pay $1100 per month plus meal money. If you’re qualified or know someone who is, more information can be found here.

Cash-strapped Post-Dispatch parent sold Cardinals stake


The reporters and columnists from St. Louis’ only daily newspaper, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, can no longer move about this weekend’s Cardinals Winter Warm-up as if they own the place.

Their parent company, the financially-strapped Lee Enterprises of Davenport, Iowa, sold their partial ownership stake in the St. Louis Cardinals, apparently to the majority ownership group led by Chairman and Chief Executive Officer William O. DeWitt Jr. The media company had assumed a 2.7% share of the club via their 2005 purchase of Pulitzer Inc, then-owner of the newspaper.

At the time of the original 2001 acquisition, it was reported that the Cardinals ownership shares of Pulitzer Inc. and chairman Michael Pulitzer, who also held a personal interest in the team, totaled nearly 4%. No word that the recent transaction affected Pulitzer’s individual stake.

The amount generated by Lee’s sale, which reportedly occurred last summer, and exactly which of the other 14 members of the team’s ownership group picked up the 2.7% were not announced.

Yet, we can estimate the value of the transaction, based on Forbes’ annual valuation of all 30 MLB clubs. In their annual report on the Business of Baseball released in April, Forbes established the value of the Cardinals at $484 million. Therefore, a 2.7 percent stake would be worth just over $13 million, not enough to put a dent in the huge financial problems facing Lee Enterprises.

The biggest news as part of Friday’s announcement, as reported in the Post-Dispatch, is that Lee has been given a waiver until the end of the month on $306 million of debt. It was reported that Lee and their creditors are actively working on an extension with the waiver buying more time to complete the negotiations and keep the company from defaulting on their debt agreement.

Note: Link to December 18 article, “Cardinals Minority Owner in Serious Financial Trouble”

The lost art of Cardinals strikeouts


Though no one knew it at the time, June 13, 2006 would become a milestone for the St. Louis Cardinals. On that evening in Pittsburgh, reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter fanned 13 Pirates in seven shutout innings of work.

Since then, the Cardinals have gone 422 games and counting without a ten strikeout performance by any pitcher. Unless Carpenter is able to return to his previous proficiency level in 2009, the prospect of the drought being broken any time soon seems unlikely.

Maybe that was partly what Carp was thinking about when he told the Boston Globe the following last weekend:

“After two very frustrating and miserable years, I just want to feel healthy again. I feel if my arm and elbow are fine, I’ll be able to do what I’ve always done.”

One of the things the Cardinals ace has always been able to do on the mound is to get the big strikeout in a crucial situation.

We are all probably ever-so familiar with the Tony La Russa/Dave Duncan “pitch to contact” philosophy. I am not here to bash that, as it has worked for them. It also may at least partially be a reflection of the strengths of a majority their personnel.

On the other hand, is there a more macho play in all of sports than the strikeout – one on one, pitcher against hitter? When the hurler dominates, the batter is returned meekly to his dugout.

Let’s face it. Would the final out of the 2006 National League Championship Series have been remembered even a week later if Adam Wainwright had retired the Mets’ Carlos Beltran on a 6-3 grounder instead of looking at an amazing curveball?

Better yet, Wainwright also polished off the Detroit Tigers’ Brandon Inge on another K to secure the last out of the 2006 World Series. But who remembers the first step, the NLDS win? Yet had that not occurred first, the rest would never have happened. For the record, San Diego’s Dave Roberts grounded out to Albert Pujols. How utterly boring!

Back on point, statman extraordinare Tom Orf pulled some lists that illustrate the dying art of the Cardinals double-digit strikeout performance.

In the last 50 years, since 1959, team pitchers have registered 194 performances of ten strikeouts or more. While that averages almost four per year, the reality is that without Hall of Famer Bob Gibson, who retired following the 1975 season, the Cardinals half-century total would be a meager 120.

To help put those counts into perspective, one man alone, albeit MLB’s leading active strikeout pitcher and second all-time, Randy Johnson, has amassed some 212 games of ten or more Ks since his 1998 debut.

Closer to home, despite the strikeout-averse reputation of the current Cardinals coaches, at first blush, the TLR/DD years look fairly normal. Since 1996, St. Louis pitchers have amassed 60 ten strikeout games. Upon further analysis, however, over 75% of them occurred in the first five seasons of the La Russa reign behind the Benes brothers, Todd Stottlemyre and yes, Rick Ankiel. Andy had ten, Todd eight and Alan and Rick six.

Of course with Ankiel, I am referring to his superb 2000 season, a year in which he registered all six of his ten K performances. That total represents the Cardinals’ highest single season count of such games since Gibson’s seven accrued thirty years earlier, back in 1970.

I already mentioned Gibson’s career total of 74 ten strikeout games. As good as Ankiel was in 2000, Gibson had six different seasons as good or better, led by his magical 1968 campaign, during which he fanned ten or more batters 11 different times.

While Ankiel reached ten six times, he did not fan as many as 12 in any one game. In contrast, over his 17-year career, Gibson fanned 12 or more on a single day 30 different times.

Since 1903, Gibby is also the Cardinals post-season king, with five of the club’s seven 10 or more strikeout games. Mort Cooper and Grover Cleveland Alexander also cracked that list.

Gibson’s top playoff performance was in Game One of the 1968 World Series. On October 2, 1968, he fanned 17 Detroit Tigers while leading the Cardinals to a 4-0 shutout. It was arguably the greatest-pitched game in the history of the old Busch Stadium (Busch Stadium II), and shattered the World Series record of 15 that had been held by Sandy Koufax.

But as many Cardinals fans may know, Gibson doesn’t hold the club’s single game record. That is 19 Ks, collected by Steve Carlton on September 15, 1969. Ironically, the Cardinals lost 4-3 to the Mets that evening. Carlton had set his own team record of 16 two years prior, on September 20, 1967.

Though “Lefty” pitched for St. Louis for just five full seasons, he owned three of the top four highest one-game regular season strikeout totals in team history at the time he left the club. And he still does today. Carlton fanned 16 again on May 21, 1970 and ironically two days later, Gibson repeated the feat. Carlton did it in just eight innings, while Gibson went a full nine.

The Cardinals opponent in that pair of games was none other than the Philadelphia Phillies. Less than two years later, over a salary dispute, Carlton ended up a member of that very club, where he would remain for over 14 years. Lefty went on to finish fourth all-time in Major League Baseball history with over 4000 strikeouts.

Once Gibson retired, the Cardinals’ double-digit strikeout games essentially dried up. For the 12 years from 1976 though 1987, including the “Whiteyball” success years, the club had just three 10 K games. That was an amazing dry run considering the span was of almost 2000 games in duration.

After three years of Jose DeLeon logging a total of nine ten-plus strikeout games from 1988 through 1990, the final five years before La Russa’s arrival for the 1996 season saw six more such contests.

For the years 2001-2004, Matt Morris led the club each season, but totaled only eight 10 K games. Carpenter followed with four in his Cy Young Award 2005 season, which brings us right back to where we started – June 13, 2006, his only ten strikeout game that year – 422 games ago and counting.


Again, a special thanks to Tom Orf for his research, the basis for this article. His lists follow.

St. Louis Cardinals

Most ten or more strikeout games in a season

1959-2008

Year Pitcher #
1968 Gibson 11
1969 Gibson 9
1965 Gibson 8
1970 Gibson 7
1962 Gibson 6
1967 Gibson 6
2000 Ankiel 6
1963 Gibson 5
1964 Gibson 5
1966 Gibson 5
1969 Carlton 5
1972 Gibson 5
1997 An. Benes 5
2000 Kile 5
2001 Morris 4
2005 Carpenter 4

St. Louis Cardinals

Ten or more strikeout games by season

1959-2008

Team Year Pitcher # Pitcher # Pitcher # Pitcher # Pitcher #
3 1959 Gibson 1 Broglio 1 Mizell 1
4 1960 Broglio 3 Mizell 1
2 1961 Gibson 1 Sadecki 1
8 1962 Gibson 6 Broglio 1 Simmons 1
8 1963 Gibson 5 Broglio 1 Sadecki 1 Washburn 1
6 1964 Gibson 5 Sadecki 1
9 1965 Gibson 8 Sadecki 1
5 1966 Gibson 5
9 1967 Gibson 6 Carlton 2 Hughes 1
12 1968 Gibson 11 Briles 1
14 1969 Gibson 9 Carlton 5
11 1970 Gibson 7 Carlton 3 Torrez 1
8 1971 Gibson 2 Carlton 2 Reuss 2 Cleveland 1 Guzman 1
8 1972 Gibson 5 Spinks 1 Wise 1 Santorini 1
2 1973 Gibson 2
2 1974 Gibson 1 Siebert 1
3 1975 McGlothen 2 Gibson 1
1 1976 McGlothen 1
0 1977
1 1978 Urrea 1
1 1979 Vukovich 1
0 1980-1985
1 1986 Conroy 1
0 1987
3 1988 DeLeon 3
4 1989 DeLeon 4
3 1990 DeLeon 2 Magrane 1
0 1991
3 1992 Cormier 2 Osborne 1
0 1993
1 1994 Tewksbury 1
2 1995 Al.Benes 1 Petkovsek 1
6 1996 Al.Benes 2 An.Benes 2 Stottlemyre 2
12 1997 An.Benes 5 Al.Benes 4 Stottlemyre 3
5 1998 Stottlemyre 3 Morris 2
2 1999 Bottenfield 1 Oliver 1
14 2000 Ankiel 6 Kile 5 An.Benes 3
7 2001 Morris 4 Kile 3
4 2002 Morris 2 Finley 2
1 2003 Morris 1
3 2004 Morris 1 Williams 1 Carpenter 1
5 2005 Carpenter 4 Mulder 1
1 2006 Carpenter 1
0 2007
0 2008
194

St. Louis Cardinals

Ten or more strikeout games

1959-2008

19 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 Total
Bob Gibson 1 2 3 10 14 18 26 74
Steve Carlton 1 2 4 1 5 13
Matt Morris 1 3 6 10
Andy Benes 2 2 6 10
Jose DeLeon 1 8 9
Todd Stottlemyre 2 1 5 8
Darryl Kile 2 6 8
Alan Benes 4 3 7
Chris Carpenter 1 1 2 2 6
Rick Ankiel 4 2 6
Ernie Broglio 1 1 4 6
Ray Sadecki 1 3 4
Lynn McGlothen 3 3
Chuck Finley 1 1 2
Rheal Cormier 1 1 2
Vinegar Bend Mizell 2 2
Jerry Reuss 2 2
Scipio Spinks 1 1
Dick Hughes 1 1
Mark Mulder 1 1
Pete Vukovich 1 1
Al Santorini 1 1
Woody Williams 1 1
Darren Oliver 1 1
Joe Magrane 1 1
Tim Conroy 1 1
Sonny Siebert 1 1
Curt Simmons 1 1
Mark Petkovek 1 1
Bob Tewksbury 1 1
Donovan Osborne 1 1
Nelson Briles 1 1
Ray Washburn 1 1
Mike Torrez 1 1
Reggie Cleveland 1 1
Santiago Guzman 1 1
Rick Wise 1 1
John Urrea 1 1
Kent Bottenfield 1 1
Totals 1 3 2 4 17 27 44 96 194
Strikeouts 19 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 Total

St. Louis Cardinals

Six or more strikeout games – Postseason

1959-2008 17 13 12 10 9 8 7 6 Total
Bob Gibson 1 1 3 2 1 1 9
John Tudor 1 1 2 4
Chris Carpenter 1 2 3
Danny Cox 1 2 3
Andy Benes 1 1 2
Matt Morris 2 2
Todd Stottlemyre 1 1 2
Woody Williams 1 1 2
1903-1958
Bill Hallahan 1 2 3
Burleigh Grimes 1 2 3
Dizzy Dean 2 2
Max Lanier 1 1 2
Mort Cooper 1 1 1 3
Pete Alexander 1 1 2
Totals 1 1 1 4 4 5 8 18 42

Could Mather at third help unlock Colby in the outfield?


To be honest, until recently I hadn’t been all that energized over the potential of seeing many pitched battles in spring training for roster spots on the 2009 St. Louis Cardinals. Instead, I was thinking more about likelihood of gauging the health of Chris Carpenter daily and interpreting its impact in solidifying the rotation and bullpen.

However, that was before recent comments coming out of the Cardinals brass that actually have me gotten me kind of excited.

Why? Colby Rasmus and Joe Mather are why.


Rasmus considerations

For two reasons, I had previously felt quite strongly that top prospect Rasmus would not make the team out of spring training no matter how well he played. That may still be the case, but the door has now been opened a crack.

First, there are the five incumbent outfielders ahead of Colby – Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumaker, Ryan Ludwick, Chris Duncan and Mather. Six if you count 2008 Rule 5 pick Brian Barton. Sure, one or more could be traded, but that hasn’t happened yet and very well may not. I also never take the easy way out in roster questions by assuming players will become injured. I consider that a copout to avoid making tough calls.

The second Rasmus reason is clearly still valid. That is financial. Ensuring Colby does not spend his entire first season in the bigs would prevent his free agency from occurring a year sooner than would be the case otherwise. While we are talking about six years from now, it is still very significant – a whole additional season under team control.

But this post isn’t about Rasmus as much as it is about Mather. One of my secondary concerns about Rasmus making the team was that if he did so over Mather, it would overbalance the outfield with four lefty hitters and just one righty (Ludwick).


Mo and TLR introduce a scenario

It seems the Cards are considering the chances of having their Rasmus cake and eating their Mather dessert, too. I offer these revealing comments that GM John Mozeliak volunteered to Hall of Famer Rick Hummel of the Post-Dispatch last week.

“Mozeliak ruled out nothing but also said that the Cardinals’ opening day roster might include all of the aforementioned outfielders plus rookie Colby Rasmus and Joe Mather, who last year filled a utility role, a role that might be expanded to third base and perhaps even second base this spring,” Hummel reported.

This section of the article also included a direct Mozeliak quote.

“But he (Mo) added, ‘I do think there’s a way that all these guys (the six at the big-league level) make it. There is a scenario.’”

The very next day, a Derrick Goold piece quoted manager Tony La Russa jabbing at the second base idea, but essentially backing the rest.

“After a joke about 6-foot-4 Joe Mather playing a little second base during spring training and becoming one of the tallest ever to play the position, La Russa says Mather will see time at first base, in the outfield and, yes, even third base.”

So, what is the scenario at which Mozeliak hinted?

Mather makes the team as more of an infield reserve than an outfield reserve, that’s how.


How does it all fit together?

Let’s step back for a second and consider the way the 25-man roster is typically constructed coming out of camp. The good news is that it is pretty consistent from year to year.

There are five starting pitchers, seven relievers including two lefties, and 13 position players. From there you have the eight starters and five reserves. One back up is a catcher, two are outfielders and two infielders.

We’ve already discussed the outfield situation. The reserve catcher, Jason LaRue, is set. Brendan Ryan, a middle infielder by training and out of options, is very likely one infield back up. That leaves one spot, generally to be considered the position vacated by Aaron Miles, someone who could play all over the field.

The list of current candidates for that spot is woven from an unproven, somewhat uninspiring fabric, headed by non-roster invitee and former Dodgers prospect Joe Thurston. Others in the mix are Brian Barden and Tyler Greene.


Where could Mather fit?

With Ryan able to play second, short or third, could Joe Mather handle that other infield reserve job, also providing the ability to play outfield and deliver some much-needed pop off the bench?

From the Memphis perspective, the answer is “yes”, with Thurston taking over the D’Angelo Jimenez veteran middle infielder role, and Barden, Greene and Jarrett Hoffpauir also competing for Triple-A at-bats.

Another player that will likely be considered for a St. Louis opening is third baseman David Freese. He has a nice bat and is a more accomplished third baseman, though he seems to lack Mather’s versatility.

Let’s go around the diamond with Mather. We don’t know if he can pitch an inning in a blowout like Miles but he may be able to serve as third-string emergency catcher. Mather played behind the plate in at least one game in 2007 with Memphis.

We also know that he can play all three outfield positions quite handily as well as cover at first base, providing a right-handed hitting reserve to complement the lefty-hitting Duncan behind Albert Pujols.

As La Russa noted, the 6-foot-4 Mather would be a tall second baseman and Joe has apparently never played there. On the other hand, Cal Ripken, the same height as Mather, single-handedly destroyed the myth that shortstop has to be a “short” position.

Mather grew up playing the infield, specifically on the left side, and still considers that his first love. Yet since he has rarely played shortstop professionally, he still has to be considered only an emergency option there.

“In high school, I played third base my junior year and shortstop my senior year. When I signed, my first year with the Cardinals in ’01, I played third and short,” Mather reminded me Thursday.

Third base is really the wild card. While starter Troy Glaus was a durable performer in his first year in St. Louis in 2008, he has had injury problems in the past. Ryan can play the position defensively, but is a bit erratic there and lacks the power of a Mather.

While having manned at the hot corner in the past, it has been a long time for Mather. First, I asked him if the rumors from St. Louis had reached Arizona.

“Yeah, my Dad and my sister got a hold of that and called me right away… I think that would be great. I would definitely welcome it. I grew up playing shortstop and third base so any time I can get in there I’d love it and hopefully I’ll prove I can still play there,” he explained.

Next, I probed a bit more about his third base history. Officially, Mather played some there professionally from 2001 through 2004. I believe his last official regular season game action at third prior to 2008 was a single appearance in 2005 while he was still in A-ball at Palm Beach.

I had forgotten that in one of his 54 major league games last season, the 26-year-old did make his MLB debut at third base. He had no chances defensively, however. I asked Mather his comfort level playing at the hot corner.

“I am pretty comfortable. They put me there in a couple of spring training games at Triple-A. I played third. I ended up getting a couple of balls and made the plays. I think one of those things that I’ve done my whole life to a point I can get back to being decent over there pretty quickly. When it comes to maybe being an all-star, that might take a few years,” he cracked.

“Getting back into it and taking as many reps as I can; I think that with a little work, I can be good enough over there to play in the big leagues,” Mather concluded.

My nagging concern is how he is going to get those needed third base reps in spring camp. Will it be in major league games? If so, how short will his leash be?

Last March, I recall probing this same exact line of thinking, asking La Russa point blank if Mather was going to play at third base in spring games. His reply was a curt, direct, “Not here”.

As noted above, Mather did see some time at third base with Memphis, though not in even one actual game. Still, he is ready to do anything needed to remain with the Cardinals, even if it is as a reserve infielder/outfielder.

“Absolutely, I’ll take that role. Any role in St. Louis is going to be better than a role in the minor leagues. I’ve played in the minor leagues for a few years (starting in 2001),” the outfielder understated.

It is a year later and with different variables, but it seems the pressure could be squarely on Mather early in camp to prove his mettle at third base. Doing so would really improve his chances of making the season-opening MLB roster for the very first time.

At least tangentially, it could also help grease the skids for his pal Rasmus.

“I’m great friends with Colby. We’ve roomed together for I think the last two or three years and it would be great to have us both up there. I know that Colby is chomping at the bit to get up there and prove how good he is,” Mather concluded.

All he wants is a chance to prove himself like Joe Mather did in 2008.


Note: Scout.com subscribers can listen to the entire Mather audio interview in his own words here. Among the other topics are how and when he was injured, why his problem won’t be coming back, his workout plans in the off-season, a trip back to his old high school that led to a contest and an honor, his plans to attend Winter Warm-up and more!

Cardinals minor matters – January 15


For those who haven’t embraced the news reader age but are pressed for time (who isn’t?) and don’t want to check many different St. Louis Cardinals-related websites, a perfect answer is “Cardinals Best News Links”. There, a short description and links to many of the top Cards stories of the day are offered in one place.

With the computer of its proprietor, Josh Jones, out with a winter virus, I thought I’d pinch hit with a few of the more off-the-wall, out of the way links to articles I’ve run across in the last 24 hours or so. CBNL will be back up to date very soon.


Where are they now? – Pitts, Bialas, Riggins, Leyva and Riggleman

The current whereabouts of five ex-Arkansas Travelers, the old Cardinals’ Texas League affiliate are provided. Mark Riggins left the Cards for the Cubs in the big changes around the time of the Walt Jocketty departure. Jim Riggleman was treated a bit rudely in Seattle, but is in another Washington, DC, now. In a move one could see coming, Gaylen Pitts was recently replaced as Palm Beach manager and is now a roving instructor for the organization.


Scully’s commentary of Larsen’s perfect WS game

If you’re like me, you’ve taken a shine to the new MLB Network. The network’s inaugural broadcast was of the telecast of Don Larsen’s perfect game in the 1956 World Series. In a nice touch, they had the battery of Larsen and Yogi Berra in the studio to comment between innings.

Yet the then-28-year-old broadcaster who covered the final innings on television that day, the Hall-of-Famer Vin Scully, was noticeably absent. MLB should have had Vin there, plain and simple.

The next best thing happened when the LA Times interviewed Scully after he watched the MLB Network replay. It is well worth the read.


Springfield at Quad Cites

The Cardinals Double-A club will invade the Quad Cities for an exhibition game on April 5th. The teams will already be well-familiar with each other, having just flown north from training camp in sunny Florida.


Winter Warm-up: during and after

The Cardinals have released the signing times and speaking slots and locations for this coming weekend’s fan event in St. Louis. The entire Winter Warm-up schedule is too unwieldy to fully reproduce here, but MLB.com has highlighted the top speakers at the link provided. If you have further questions, drop a comment below and I will try to assist.

Our friends at Fox Sports Midwest just announced their WWU plans. Starting on Tuesday, January 20, they kick off their 2009 coverage of St. Louis Cardinals baseball with two 30-minute specials recapping the Cardinals Winter Warm-up and looking ahead to the upcoming season.

For those who cannot be there in person, these two specials will be the next-best thing and even if you do attend, you can catch all you missed. Details here.


Duncan clears waivers

As I mentioned the other day, Chris Duncan’s brother Shelly was booted off the New York Yankees’ 40-man roster in favor of some guy named Teixeira. Shelly cleared waivers and is now in Triple-A.


Izzy groundswell in Detroit?

This is especially good timing coming off my account yesterday of Jason Isringhausen’s final Cardinals save. The Detroit Free Press is endorsing the Tigers signing Izzy to help fill their closing need. For a club that stuck with shaky Todd Jones for years, Izzy seems a natural fit for Jim Leyland’s Tigers.


“Can Jason Varitek Escape his Predicament?“

Scott Boras/Jason Varitek passed up an almost assured $10 million via arbitration for Boston’s catcher and now could be forced to sign a minor-league deal. Few if any starting catching jobs are open and Pudge Rodriguez is among those also still looking.

The concept of Type A free agent ‘Tek having to sign a minor league deal because no club is willing to lose their first/second round draft pick in signing him is intriguing.  It could apply to pitcher Juan Cruz, too, a guy the Cards might be interested in if the price is right.

I wonder if Boras doesn’t do better with the biggest names than with mid-tier guys like Kyle Lohse and Varitek. Given Varitek’s career decline, passing up arbitration looks like a terrible miscalculation for the esteemed Super Agent.


Interesting P-D editorial

Already interesting on its own, but even more so since it originates from a St. Louis Post-Dispatch editor, the subject of this piece is the quality of sportswriting. Wonder who he had in mind?


At Scout.com

Recently, I’ve written about the Cardinals abandoning their bid to purchase the Memphis Redbirds and posted a pair of detailed articles about Cardinals prospects and the club’s comparative position to their NL Central peers.

The latter two are subscriber-only and cover the extensive work of minor league expert Deric McKamey. His fourth-annual book, the Minor League Baseball Analyst, is now out and is a must-read for minor league fans.

I will offer just one tease. Here are McKamey’s overall system rankings across MLB for the NL Central organizations: Cardinals (10), Reds (11), Brewers (13), Pirates (20), Cubs (27) and Astros (29). I am probably doing a disservice with this snippet, as what is most interesting are the comprehensive details behind how those numbers were developed. It is a much more rigorous process than most every set of system ranking systems that I have seen.

In comparing our top 15’s, we actually agree on 14 of the 15 players. Ones Deric ranks higher than me: Daryl Jones, Pete Kozma, Mitchell Boggs, Jon Jay, Lance Lynn, Richard Castillo and Niko Vasquez. Players I put higher: Jason Motte, Jess Todd, David Freese, Jaime Garcia and Adam Ottavino. Where we agree exactly: Colby Rasmus, Brett Wallace, Bryan Anderson and Clayton Mortensen. What would an off-season be without prospect lists to discuss and debate?


Password problems

In an administrative note, the one regret I have so far in starting this blog is in the number of password-related problems you all have had to deal with. The system that my platform, WordPress, uses is unwieldy to be polite. I have tried to document how to change passwords, but if you can’t get in, you can’t make your change.

If you are stuck in that boat, email me at brian (at) thecardinalnation.com and I will reset your password so you can log in. Again, I apologize for the difficulties.


MyYahoo news reader

I am also fighting an incompatibility problem between WordPress and the MyYahoo RSS news reader. I am not alone with the problem, but as of yet, have not developed a solution. All other news readers are working fine. (I’d much rather write about baseball than battle technology, but it seems to go with the territory!)

2008 Cardinals-Phillies weirdness


Even before the Philadelphia Phillies were crowned the world champions of baseball for 2008, I had been thinking about the number of unusual occurrences during the very few games in which they played the St. Louis Cardinals last season.

Here are some of the milestone events that were marked as the two clubs were on the field together during 2008:

  • June 13: Mark Worrell‘s last Cardinals appearance
  • July 8: Joel Pineiro‘s first win in over two months
  • July 9: Mark Mulder‘s first and last 2008 start
  • August 1: Jason Isringhausen’s last Cardinals save

During Spring Training 2008, the odds the Phillies would win the World Series were 20/1 (the Cardinals were 40/1). Seven months later, the Phils captured their first World Championship since 1980.

Along the way, the St. Louis and Philadelphia clubs faced off in three series totaling nine games, six at Busch and three at Citizens Bank Park. The Phils took the season series five games to four.

In each of the three series, there turned out to be one or more defining event for the 2008 Cardinals.


Worrell goes down and out – Series one, game one – June 13 – Phils 20, Cards 2

The December 4 trade of disgruntled reliever Mark Worrell to San Diego in the Khalil Greene deal means that the 25-year-old pitched in his fourth and final contest wearing the birds on the bat uniform on June 13.

The previous evening, in the closing game of the prior series in Cincinnati on June 12, Worrell had his first bad outing after his initial two scoreless outings as a major leaguer. Still, it seemed trouble was on the horizon as the right hander had allowed two runners per inning pitched.

In the sixth, with two Ron Villone runners on base, Worrell was brought in to get the final out and he did. With one out in the seventh though, Worrell gave up a double and a walk. Randy Flores came in and allowed both his inherited runners to score, charged to Worrell.

Moving on to June 13th game, the first of the nine between the Cards and Phils, starter Todd Wellemeyer had served up three consecutive home runs in the first. By the fourth, Wellemeyer and Villone had the Cardinals down 13-1.

Worrell entered in the sixth with the score 14-1 and gave up three more runs. As part of a 3-for-5 day with two home runs and five runs batted in, Ryan Howard launched a three-run shot. In his defense, Worrell remained in the game to complete a total of two innings on the mound, striking out three.

Some bad blood ensued when reliever Russ Springer hit Howard with a pitch the next time up, in the eighth. The reliever and his skipper, Tony La Russa were ejected from the game. When the Phils dusted Brendan Ryan in the bottom of the frame, acting manager Jose Oquendo was also sent to an early exit.

Following the game, Worrell was sent packing, too – back to Memphis. While not defending his results, I do want to note that Worrell didn’t pitch as badly as the box score indicates. He was actually only the third least-effective pitcher for the Cardinals that evening. In his worst outing of the season, Wellemeyer was charged with eight runs and Villone six. Springer and Ryan Franklin yielded three more between them.

In the final weird occurrence that night, infielder Aaron Miles became the only St. Louis “pitcher” that day to escape unscathed when he tossed a scoreless ninth.


Pineiro’s first win in over two months – Series two, game one – July 8 – Cards 2, Phils 0

Former general manager Walt Jocketty rightfully earned his reputation as the master of the trade. This one didn’t rank highly among them. At the July, 2007 deadline, he picked pitcher Joel Pineiro off Boston’s scrap heap for minor league outfielder Sean Danielson.

After Pineiro finished the 2007 season with his best 11 games in at least the last four years, Walt’s successor and his former right-hand man John Mozeliak awarded Pineiro with a two-year, $13 million contract. Mo, still acting GM at the time, completed his first deal which both then and now looks to be one year too long and a million or two per year too high.

Fast forward to July 8, 2008. Pineiro, making $5.5 million that season, had not won a game in well over two months, since April 29. After yielding just five hits and three walks in 6 1-3 innings, he finally earned the decision.

Again, it wasn’t all the pitcher’s fault as he had gone 0-2 with seven no-decisions in his previous nine starts. Pineiro allowed three runs or fewer five times in that span, but couldn’t get a victory. Needless to say, the Cardinals’ shaky pen had a lot to do with that long, dry spell.


Mulder’s end of the line – Series two, game two – July 9 – Phils 4, Cards 3

The next afternoon ended quickly in what would be Mark Mulder’s final start of an extremely disappointing four-year stretch as a Cardinal. Trying to return from shoulder problems, the lefty had not looked especially good in his rehab outings, but it seemed time to find out if Mulder had anything left.

He didn’t.

The now-31-year-old had not made a major league start in over two years. On this day, two walks preceded by a strikeout ended Mulder’s start, his season and his tenure with St. Louis. Coming in with a supposed new release point, the results were pretty much the same, as the lefty complained he could not get his arm up into the proper slot.

In a bad continuance of one of Jocketty’s worst deals ever, Mulder signed a two-year extension for $13 million (what is it about those numbers?) prior to the 2007 season. In return, the Cardinals received 12 2/3 innings with an ERA well over ten.

Perhaps Jocketty was pressing in resigning Mulder after giving Oakland three players, Dan Haren, Kiko Calero and Daric Barton, for the lefty prior to the 2005 season. But for whatever reason, the Mulder era in St. Louis has to be considered a colossal failure.

After working with a celebrity trainer and a yoga master, Mulder is supposedly ready to go for the 2009 season, according to recent press reports offered by his agent. Mulder is currently unsigned.


Izzy’s last cheers – Series three, game one – August 1 – Cards 6, Phils 3

No one can take away the fact that Jason Isringhausen is the Cardinals’ career save leader. However, his disastrous early 2008 led to his loss of his job, an embarrassing banishment to the minors (rehabbing an injury, of course) and ultimately, his return as a general arm out of the bullpen.

Not receiving save opportunities was one downstream result from Izzy’s problems, as he was only given two chances after his June 17 return. He blew the first, on June 25. In fact since his last previous save, Izzy had blown four, taking three losses.

Upon saving Kyle Lohse’s 13th win in getting the final four outs on August 1st, Izzy still may have seen the handwriting on the wall through his post-game comments. “It’s not over yet. I’ve got to keep going out there and getting the job done or I won’t be in that role. It could be on borrowed time, so I’ve got to go out and give it my all every time,” he told the AP.

That Busch Stadium save not only represented Izzy’s first one in almost three months, it would also prove to be his last. His final 2008 appearance would occur two weeks later. Elbow surgery ensued in September, followed by free agency.

August 1 was notable for another reason. It was the last time the 2008 Cardinals were as close as four games away from the National League Central lead as they eventually fell as far back as 15 ½ games before settling in at 11 ½ games behind the Cubs to end the season.

Earlier speculation that Izzy might be offered a chance later in the off-season to return to St. Louis in 2009 has pretty much been quashed. At this point, it seems more likely that this August 1 save will forever be his last wearing the Cardinals uniform.

It was Izzy’s 12th of the season, 217th as a Cardinal and 293rd as a major leaguer.


By the way, in case you want to mark your calendars, the Cardinals and Phillies will meet only five times in 2009: two games in early May in St. Louis and three in late July in Philly. All things considered, perhaps that is for the better.

Cardinals LOOGYs: Isn’t there more to it?


“Did the Cardinals improve their lefty relief?”

That is the very question Derrick Goold set out to answer at his fine “Bird Land” blog earlier this week. As always, he assumed a calm, fact-based tone to try to either support or dispel the feelings of some about one of many volatile issues this winter – that the St. Louis Cardinals’ left-handed relief corps for 2009 is a downgrade from the crew rostered the previous season.

Goold went beyond the obvious factors of salaries, health concerns and the basic stats to consider the primary role for the three newcomers, Trever Miller, Charlie Manning and Royce Ring – how they have fared against left-handed hitters previously. The term used in support is “LOOGY”, or Lefty One-Out GuY.

After looking at measures like batting average, slugging, walk and strikeout rates, as well as mix of pitch types thrown, Derrick’s conclusion is that this 2009 crop could be just fine against lefty hitters. A few supporting quotes:

“Miller is clearly the lefty specialist they desired. With the others, the Cardinals cannot be sure of their roles or their expected contributions, as (pitching coach Dave) Duncan said, ‘yet.’”

“Both Manning and Ring have the look of a lefty who could perform in a more specified role.”

This is a well-presented case that might go a long way in soothing the concerns, especially of those who look first at salaries to judge a player’s worth. In fact, it was Derrick’s third article reviewing different aspects of Miller’s effectiveness against left-handed hitters.

At first blush, I accepted the conclusion and moved on to other matters. Yet the more I thought about it, the less comfortable I was that the analysis was complete enough for me to hang my hat on.


Is there more to consider?

Sure, getting out left-handed hitters is the primary textbook-defined role of a left-handed reliever. I readily accept that.

  • Yet especially on a Tony La Russa-managed club, is there really such a thing as a LOOGY?
  • Is potentially choosing from among three options for a LOOGY the best question to ask?

(By the way, the population of competitors is four if you include minor leaguer Ian Ostlund, who has yet to appear in the majors, but did score an invite to major league spring training. With no MLB results, Ostlund is excluded from the work that follows.)

We all know that in some cases, opposing managers will send up pinch hitters to disrupt the lefty-lefty match-ups, yet one could assume the left-handed reliever is being asked to come into the game and get out an important opposing batter, one that would not be taken out of the game.

Yet how often does a La Russa-Dave Duncan left-hander come in to pitch to just one left-handed hitter and then exit the game?

Certainly some outs are more crucial than others, but if the pitcher remains on the mound for more than one enemy batter, odds are high that next hitter is going to be a right-hander. Further, that next man up could easily be in just as crucial of a game situation as the previous left-handed batter.

In other words, my hypothesis is that the Cardinals need lefties that can get out right-handed hitters almost as badly as they need ones that can retire left-handed hitters.

Obviously, if that is the case, considering stats against lefties only is not going to provide the full picture.


How often did Ron Villone and Randy Flores face lefties?

I am going to use 2008 results to help me demonstrate this. I submit that the La Russa-Duncan usage patterns for left-handed relievers are pretty set at this stage of their coaching careers. Therefore the ability to assume 2009 deployment from 2008 usage seems reasonable, especially when considering the long course of 162 games.

We’ll start with the usage of the two from 2008, Ron Villone and Randy Flores.

2008 Cards Game appearances % Game App Batters plate appearances PA/App % PA
Ron Villone 74 229 3.1
vs. LHH 68 92% 108 1.5 47%
vs. RHH 43 58% 121 1.6 53%
Randy Flores 43 131 3.0
vs. LHH 37 86% 64 1.5 49%
vs. RHH 32 74% 67 1.6 51%
Total 117 360 3.1
vs. LHH 105 90% 172 1.5 48%
vs. RHH 75 64% 188 1.6 52%

First, note that when the two appeared in games, they each faced at least one left-handed hitter (LHH) 90% of the time. Check.

While Flores went up against right-handed hitters (RHH) more often than Villone, it is worth noting that in almost 2/3 of their collective appearances, the two left-handed relievers also faced at least one right-handed hitter.

So much for LOOGY-ness.

Going on to the right of the table, we see that they both averaged three batters faced per appearance in 2008. In terms of pure numbers of batters faced, the pair of lefties actually pitched to MORE right-handed hitters than left-handed hitters last season.

LOOGY what?


Put aside pure LOOGYness then; how did they do in facing just one batter?

Now, we’ll pull out the game logs of the two from last season. In this analysis, we are not looking at the handedness of the batter. Instead, the view is of how the LH relievers were used and how they fared in single-batter outings.

In other words, when Villone or Flores came in to face just one batter, whether righty or lefty, did they get their man?

2008 Cards Game appearances One-batter appearances % 1ba One out gotten % 1out
Ron Villone 74 32 43% 17 53%
Randy Flores 43 14 33% 8 57%
Total 117 46 39% 25 54%

To clarify, note that I did not show how each pitcher fared against their first batter faced in EVERY appearance, regardless of duration. Instead, I looked at their results in appearances when only one batter was faced. Of course, none of this assesses the cruciality of the situation.

Therefore, this is clearly just a subset of what the full first-batter results were, but still are enough to further deflate the LOOGY myth, I believe.

Last season between the two, they faced just one batter slightly under 40% of the time. In other words, Villone and Flores were NOT used as a “one-out guy” over 60% of the time.

In terms of results in their one-batter outings, collectively the two were able to secure the out only 54% of the time.

In Flores’ case, I noted an interesting pattern. From the start of the season through June 1, he was a perfect 6-for-6 in getting that one out. The rest of the way, he went an awful 2-for-8.

Now, we’re getting closer to the essence of the real issue, I think.


How do the new guys stack up?

Let’s shift gears to the new lefties and see how they compare, using their 2008 regular season results.

2008 Game appearances One-batter appearances % 1ba One out gotten % 1out
Trever Miller 68 20 29% 15 75%
Charlie Manning 57 16 28% 12 75%
Royce Ring 42 19 45% 15 79%
Total 167 55 33% 42 76%

The first thing to note is that these three were used less frequently to face one batter than did the Cardinals pair from 2008, 33% vs. 39%. So this analysis is over an even a smaller subset of their total body of work than it was for Flores and Villone.

It obviously says nothing about the results when any of these pitchers are left in to face more than one hitter in a given game, which is exactly what happens the vast majority of the time (2/3). So it should not be considered an indicator of total results in any way.

Yet, in the one-third of the time they were used against one batter in 2008, the three new Cardinals collectively came through over 75% of the time. Needless to say, that is considerably better than the 54% mark from the Cardinals’ departed pair from last season.

It might offer a ray of hope if I could get past the fact that these pitchers are likely going to see far fewer one-batter appearances with St. Louis than they did in their previous pitching locales. I have no way of projecting if those rates would continue on a different team at a higher frequency of deployment in the situation.


How about first batters retired of all types and inherited runners?

Straying even further away from the LOOGY definition, we will conclude with first batter-retired efficiency in all outings of all durations as well as inherited runners that scored.

I believe these two measures are better gauges than most everything else presented here previously.

2008 Cards Appearances 1st batter retired % efficient Inh runners IR scored % scored
Ron Villone 74 48 65% 43 10 23%
Randy Flores 43 31 72% 26 10 38%
Total 117 79 68% 69 20 29%
2008 Appearances 1st batter retired % efficient Inh runners IR scored % scored
Trever Miller 68 49 72% 37 6 16%
Charlie Manning 57 39 68% 35 8 23%
Royce Ring 42 27 64% 34 6 18%
Total 167 115 69% 106 20 19%

Together, the two 2008 Cardinals retired their initial batter about 2/3 of the time, with Flores coming in 7% better than Villone. The three newbies in total are basically the same as the 2008 bunch, with Miller equivalent to Flores and Ring lining up with Villone at the low end. Among this group, Manning is average.

Where the new Cardinals really shine is in the important area of inherited runners scoring. Miller leads the way at a stingy 16%, with Ring right behind. The worst of the three, Manning, was the same as Villone at 23%. As Cardinals fans likely remember, Flores was simply awful in 2008, as almost 40% of the runners that were on base when he came in eventually crossed the plate.

Had Villone and Flores managed to deliver a 19% rate in these situations last season, seven fewer runs would have been charged to them and to the Cardinals.

Finally, something I can get a little more excited about!


My conclusions:

  • Most of the time, St. Louis Cardinals’ left-handed relievers are not deployed against just one batter, whether lefty or righty, making LOOGY an exception.
    • Last season, the length of Cards lefties appearances were greater than one batter 60% of the time, averaging slightly over three batters each.
    • These lefty relievers actually faced more right-handed hitters over the course of the 2008 season.
    • Therefore, using results against left-handed hitters only as a predictive measure of success would seem incomplete, at best.
  • Using an very narrow approach of looking at only one-batter outings to remain true to the spirit of LOOGY, we found that the three 2009 Cardinals newcomers were substantially more efficient in that specific role in 2008 than were the two departed left-handers.
  • While the three new left-handers allowed first hitters-faced, whether lefty or righty, to reach base last season at basically the same rate as Villone and Flores, the new Cards were markedly better at stranding inherited runners.

To get back to the initial question, “Did the Cardinals improve their lefty relief?” To date, my reply is “perhaps”, though not necessarily for the exact same reasons as Goold.