All posts by Brian Walton

Brian Walton runs The Cardinal Nation, covering the St. Louis Cardinals and minor league system.

Quiz: Cardinals 2008 lineups and starts by position


The other day, I noted the numerous quantities of lineup combinations St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa has deployed since taking over in 1996.

In each of the last two seasons, he has called upon 153 different ordered combinations of starting players over 162 games. In recent years, since 2001, when he used 112, the number has steadily increased. During his 13-year reign as Cardinals skipper, La Russa has averaged 136 different lineup cards each and every season.

The focus of this article is to look at the 2008 team leaders at each position in the field and in the batting order and uncover some interesting facts by asking you a dozen questions.

Challenge yourself! See how many you can answer correctly before looking at the answers. First are the questions alone, followed by the questions and answers together with the detailed tables at the end.

Starts by position

1. Which player logged the most starts at one position last season?

2. Which player started at the most different positions?

3. If you had to guess which player started most often in left field for the Cardinals last season, what would be your guess?

(3a. For extra credit, who had the most starts in left during 2006 and 2007?)

4. What position had the most different starters for the 2008 Cardinals?

5. What position had the fewest different starters last season?

6. Which position was closest to a job share, where two players’ number of starts were closest (excluding starting pitchers and DH)?

Batting order

7. What spots in La Russa’s 2008 batting order saw the most different players to start games?

8. Which players had the most starts at those spots in the order?

9. One player appeared in every one of the nine spots in the Cardinals’ batting order last season except one. Who was he?

10. Here’s an easy one. Who was the constant – the player most often in his same spot in the order?

11. Which non-pitcher who started at only one position during last season logged the most starts?

12. Who was the club’s busiest designated hitter last year in terms of starts?


Starts by position

1. Which player logged the most starts at one position last season?

It was a player who joined the Cardinals with a reputation of being often injured, third baseman Troy Glaus. Unfortunately, he is getting started off on the wrong foot in 2009 following his recent shoulder surgery.

2. Which player started at the most different positions?

Actually, there were five Cardinals players that each had starts at four different positions. Not surprisingly, four are middle infielders – Brendan Ryan, Adam Kennedy, Aaron Miles and Felipe Lopez. The latter three are now ex-Cardinals.

The fifth? Chris Duncan – with starts in left, right, first base and designated hitter.

3. If you had to guess which player started most often in left field for the Cardinals last season, what would be your guess?

If you said Skip Schumaker or Josh Phelps, you were wrong!

The surprising answer is Duncan with 40 starts in left in 2008, followed by Schumaker with 21. First baseman Phelps was clearly a ringer with just three.

3a. For extra credit, who had the most starts in left during 2006 and 2007?

Despite all his injuries, the answer is Duncan again and again. His 91 starts in 2007 and 40 the year prior paced all Cardinals left fielders (and those asked to try) those seasons.

4. What position had the most different starters for the 2008 Cardinals?

The answer is also left field, where ten different players started. Interestingly, each of the ten was given at least three games there, with a couple of infielders in the outfield, Miles and Phelps, each getting the minimum three starts.

5. What position had the fewest different starters last season?

That would be catcher with only three sharing the load – Yadier Molina (114), Jason LaRue (44) and Mark Johnson (4).

6. Which position was closest to a job share, where two players’ number of starts were closest (excluding starting pitchers and DH)?

There was a tie between second base, where Kennedy had 74 starts and Miles had 49, and centerfield, where Rick Ankiel had 84 starts followed by Schumaker at 59.

Batting order

7. What spot in La Russa’s 2008 batting order saw the most players in it to start games?

14 different players’ names were written onto the lineup card in the number two spot over the 162 games last season. Same with the number six position.

8. Which players had the most starts at those two spots in the order?

The team leader in the number two hole was Aaron Miles with just 34 starts there, indicating a most unsettled position, while Yadier Molina had the most starts batting sixth with 64.

9. One player appeared in every one of the nine spots in the Cardinals’ batting order last season except one. Who was he?

Believe it or not, now-released Kennedy started at least one game with his name in every spot on La Russa’s lineup card with the exception of cleanup. He picked up five game starts in the pitchers’ number eight spot during interleague play in the American League cities where the designated hitter was deployed.

10. Here’s an easy one. Who was the constant – the player most often in his same spot in the order?

Yes, that is Albert Pujols, who started 143 games batting third last season.

11. Which non-pitcher who started at only one position during last season logged the most starts?

If you thought that would be Albert again, you are wrong. In addition to his 140 games started at first base, Pujols was also the designated hitter three times.

The answer is a bit of a trick. Only one non-pitcher started at least one game with the 2008 Cardinals in the same place in the field every time.

That was Brian Barden, who was given only one start the entire season – period. He started at second base and batted ninth on September 12 in Pittsburgh. As an aside, had exactly one third of his nine official MLB at-bats for the season in that game.

12. Who was the club’s busiest designated hitter last year in terms of starts?

Rookie Nick Stavinoha tied with Pujols with three starts each at the non-position position.


2008 Cardinals – Starts by position

C Molina 114, LaRue 44, M Johnson 4

1B Pujols 140, Duncan 15, Glaus 3, Kennedy 2, Molina 1, Phelps 1

2B Kennedy 74, Miles 49, Lopez 20, Ryan 18, Barden 1

SS Izturis 110, Ryan 25, Miles 24, Lopez 3

3B Glaus 144, Lopez 9, Miles 5, Washington 2, Ryan 1, Izturis 1

LF Duncan 40, Schumaker 31, Barton 27, Ludwick 17, Ankiel 16, Mather 12, Stavinoha 7, Lopez 6, Miles 3, Phelps 3

CF Ankiel 84, Schumaker 59, Ludwick 10, Mather 9

RF Ludwick 106, Schumaker 30, Mather 6, Barton 6, Kennedy 6, Ryan 3, Phelps 2, Stavinoha 2, Duncan 1

P Lohse 33, Looper 33, Wellemeyer 32, Pineiro 25, Wainwright 20, Boggs 6, Thompson 6, Carpenter 3, Parisi 2, Mulder 1, Garcia 1

DH Stavinoha 3, Pujols 3, Molina 1, Kennedy 1, Duncan 1

2008 Cardinals – Batting order frequency

1 Schumaker 110, Izturis 17, Barton 15. Ryan 8, Miles 5, Kennedy 3, Mather 3, Ludwick 1

2 Miles 34, Ludwick 30, Duncan 17, Ankiel 17, Mather 15, Lopez 14. Kennedy 12, Barton 9, Glaus 5, Ryan 3, Schumaker 2, Phelps 2, Molina 1, Stavinoha 1

3 Pujols 143, Ludwick 13, Ankiel 3, Mather 1, Kennedy 1, Stavinoha 1

4 Ludwick 69, Ankiel 54, Glaus 29, Duncan 5, Lopez 5

5 Glaus 108, Ludwick 15, Ankiel 14, Molina 9, Duncan 6, Lopez 3, Stavinoha 3, Phelps 2, Kennedy 2

6 Molina 64, Duncan 27, Kennedy 17, Ankiel 10, Lopez 10, Miles 9, Ludwick 6, Glaus 5, LaRue 4, Mather 3, Stavinoha 3, Phelps 2, Washington 1, Ryan 1

7 Molina 41, LaRue 32, Kennedy 29, Miles 18, Izturis 13, Barton 8, Mather 5, Lopez 4, Duncan 3, Stavinoha 3, M Johnson 3, Ryan 2, Washington 1

8 Lohse 31, Looper 31, Wellemeyer 31, Pineiro 23, Wainwright 20, Thompson 6, Kennedy 5, Boggs 4, Carpenter 3, Parisi 2, LaRue 2, Stavinoha 1, Molina 1, Mulder 1, Garcia 1

9 Izturis 81, Ryan 33, Miles 15, Kennedy 14, Schumaker 8, LaRue 6, Lopez 2, Barton 1, Barden 1, M Johnson 1

Spying on Cardinals reader’s queries – February 18


Being a WordPress webmaster for the first time, I am learning new features all the time. Recently, I stumbled across a log of search arguments that random people used to arrive at this blog.

What I will do here is share some of those searches and respond directly to them in case they could not find the exact answer they wanted the first time. It’s not really spying though, since I cannot tell who originated the queries.

P.S. I enjoyed doing this so much that I may decide to make it a regular feature.

“joel pineiro wbc”

As many probably know by now, Cardinals starting pitcher Joel Pineiro (pictured) wanted to compete as a starter for his native Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic. The Cardinals wanted him in camp instead. Cardinals third base coach Jose Oquendo had to make the decision in his other role as Team Puerto Rico’s manager.

Oquendo selected three others to start instead of Pineiro. The pitcher took the news badly.

This was a very difficult situation for Oquendo. He was in for trouble either way. If he chose Pineiro, his Cardinals bosses would clearly be unhappy. Instead, this way, he has just one player mad at him compared to those who may directly influence his next job.

Pineiro probably felt that he needed to speak up to ensure he did not take heat back home. Most Americans do not understand how important these international competitions are to Latin Americans. Yet, Pineiro should have left out the “disrespected” remarks, expressed his disappointment and left it at that. Tenuous number five starters should generally be seen and not heard.

Bottom line, I will be delighted when actual games (on the field) begin.


“cardinal nation”

Yep, this is the place! By the way, I am now the proud sponsor of the 2008 Cardinals team page on Baseball-Reference.com as well as multiple pages of several players past and present, including Kyle Lohse, Trever Miller, Brendan Ryan, Mitchell Boggs, Nick Stavinoha and Brian Barden. For nostalgia purposes, I also picked up sponsorship of Whitey Herzog and Al “The Mad Hungarian” Hrabosky. So there!


“cardinals adam reifer”

On Monday, I posted a free article on Scout.com noting just how significant the accomplishments of the 2008 Batavia Muckdogs were. Among them were the contributions of the club’s closer, Adam Reifer. The 22-year-old led the New York-Penn League in appearances and game finishes and was second in saves. He picked up our Scout.com Rookie Reliever of the Year award and the same for Batavia.

For the few readers in the Batavia area, the club’s annual Hot Stove League Dinner and Auction is this Friday night. The club has also just rolled out a new website that looks like a big improvement over the prior one. I am also pleased to mention that my above article on the 2008 club will be gracing the pages of the team’s 2009 Official Program.


“cardinals full spring training roster 2009”

Go to the article entitled “Cardinals non-roster invitees – an update”. There I have posted the 23 players in camp as non-roster invitees. In the comments that follow, I also listed the 34 players names currently on the 40-man roster. In total, 57 players are in camp. Those sources listing 58 have forgotten that Adam Kennedy was dropped prior to arrival.

If you want to see all the players in the entire system, check out my Cardinals roster matrix.


“whitlock race steroids”

There were several different queries made on this subject. Frankly, I probably fell into the trap by giving this non-topic as much of my time as I already have. Time to move on – at least until Jason Whitlock’s next absurd article gets me riled up again…


“ian ostlund chances”

The lefty is not on the 40-man roster and to make the team, he probably needs three of these four things to happen in March.

1. Pitch impressively

2. Trever Miller to get hurt

3. Charlie Manning to pitch poorly

4. Royce Ring to pitch poorly

However, even if Ian Ostlund misses the cut in spring training, if he goes to Memphis and does well, the 30-year-old should make his MLB debut sometime this summer.


“fox sports north twins tv schedule”

Hmmm. Well, I do have a small connection in that the Cardinals game against the Twinkies on Sunday, March 29 will be televised on Fox Sports North, along with Fox Sports Midwest.

My count of Cardinals spring games to be shown on any network, information not easily found anywhere else, is up to 11. Remember that the first two TV games will be on SportsNet New York (SNY) on February 27 and March 3 – just around the corner!

Speaking of television and Al Hrabosky, I have been asked by several readers about Fox Sports South’s Cardinals telecast schedule for 2009. It is still a couple of weeks away, I have been told, but I will share it as soon as it is released. If you are in the relevant subset of FS South’s viewing area, western portions of Kentucky and Tennessee and the northern portion of Mississippi, you already know how this example of MLB’s ridiculous territorial rules limits your viewing options.


“2009 spring training cardinals games on the radio”

At this link, the same one posted above, I also have included the confirmed spring radio schedule from KTRS 550. 20 games will be broadcast, primarily on Tuesdays, Thursdays, Saturdays and Sundays as has been customary in recent springs.


“pujols comments on arod”

Here is the link, but to be honest, this subject makes me weary.

One thing Albert Pujols-related that I do want to rant about is the dumb things being said about Pujols’ contract. First of all, we have national concerns like the AP not even knowing how much time is on the player’s contract and making a big deal because he wants to be on a winning team. What a newsflash that is.

Then we have others ready to jump out of the window because Pujols can be a free agent in three seasons. Even others are playing Chicken Little, wanting to see Pujols traded as soon as possible. Take a pill, folks.


“chris carpenter spring training”

I agree that Chris Carpenter‘s health is the single most important story this spring for the Cardinals. However, I have decided at this point that good news is no news and unless there is bad news, I am going to wait and watch how the ace does on the mound.

If Carp looks good in March and seems ready to go in April, I like the 2009 Cardinals one heck of a lot better than I do without him. Until then however, for me, less is more.

What I will be watching is Carpenter’s pitching partner during March, Kyle McClellan. They are supposed to be on the same pitching schedule with the younger player the unofficial sixth starter. Carpenter’s injury status might not be the only opening for McClellan. Pineiro, take notice!

I hope the bullpen pitches so well that McClellan is not needed to return there and can concentrate on starting. If he can handle the role, it is a more valuable one for the team. Remember that both Pineiro and Todd Wellemeyer are now in their walk seasons. (No, I do not think they will pitch better in 2009 because of it!)


“cardinals arbitrations”

I posted a summary the other day of all the club’s five arbitration-eligible cases. Financially, the Cardinals and the players involved all came out just fine.


“cliff politte”

I have seen no official announcement, but my guess is that the soon-to-be 35-year-old Cliff Politte may have decided to hang up his spikes. The Cardinals 54th-round pick in 1995 (not a typo) had a fine career before arm injuries took their toll. The right-hander pitched in just seven games for Memphis last season.


“stavinoha catcher”

According to the most recent news out of Cardinals camp, despite what was reported initially, outfielder Nick Stavinoha’s move behind the plate is now being called a “tryout”. The soon-to-be 27-year-old is going to have to fight for playing time in Memphis no matter what position he plays defensively.


“adam kennedy release cardinals”

For me at least, I closed the book on this subject this morning with a free article at Scout.com. I will say that I think Kennedy made a big mistake, but he has to live with his decision.

La Russa’s lineup combinations increasing


Even the most casual observers would likely agree that the 2009 St. Louis Cardinals may be among the most defensively diverse group of players that Tony La Russa has ever managed.

That will surely be confirmed if a number of high-profile spring training camp tryouts take hold like outfielders Joe Mather and Skip Schumaker attempting to master the infield, outfielder Nick Stavinoha picking up catching again and 2008 reliever Kyle McClellan trying to make a go of it as a starter once more.

The manager of this club has to be in his own personal comfort zone. After all, La Russa survived 15 years as a professional player despite just receiving just 176 at-bats as a major leaguer.

One big reason why? Versatility.

Just in the majors, second baseman La Russa also saw time at shortstop and third base. His 2009 camp includes a number of players cast in that image joining Mather and Schumaker, including Brendan Ryan, Brian Barden, Tyler Greene and Joe Thurston.

Yet no matter how the 25 men on the initial version of 2009 Cardinals come together over the next six weeks, it will be nearly impossible for La Russa to assemble more roster combinations this season than last.

Of course I probably said the same thing 12 months ago, yet La Russa actually repeated his high-water level of lineup manipulation from 2007. In each of the most recent two seasons, the Cardinals sported 153 lineup combinations in their 162 games.

In other words, to suggest the 2008 Cardinals lacked a set lineup would be making a supreme understatement.

At various times, especially late in the season, La Russa was at his roster-spinning best as he deployed veteran infielders in the outfield for the first times in their careers as well as having an infielder take the mound four different times in the last two seasons.

La Russa had 14 different players start a game in the number two spot, the most of any position in the lineup, with the leader, Aaron Miles, receiving the call just 34 times. The number six spot also tied with 14 unique players positioned there to start at least one game during the 2008 season.

Now I want to make it clear that I don’t believe that La Russa is doing this to be cute, but instead because he honestly believes the lineup du jour will give his club the best chance to win that day.

Looking back, the lineup tinkering employed by La Russa has steadily increased since 2001. In both 2001 and 2002, the Cardinals manager had 41 fewer unique lineups each season compared to the last two seasons.

The numbers were up in the 140s during the latter part of the 1990s before dropping again, but most interestingly, the year in which La Russa deployed the fewest lineup gyrations was in his very first season with the Cardinals, in 1996 (110 different lineups).

Taking all of those 13 years into account, the La Russa clubs averaged 136 different combinations per season.

One can only imagine what 2009 will bring. Hopefully, injuries, often a cause for lineup changes, will not strike the club hard.

Cardinals 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002
Lineups 153 153 140 139 126 126 112
2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 Average
112 134 140 144 147 110 136


Here is the most common lineup used last season by position in the order. Note that Yadier Molina was actually the leader at two different spots, numbers six and seven. As noted above, not counting starting pitchers, the number two spot starts were the most spread out.

2008 G
By order 1 Schumaker 110
2 Miles 34
3 Pujols 143
4 Ludwick 69
5 Glaus 108
6 Molina 64
7 Molina 41
8 Lohse 31
Looper 31
Wellemeyer 31
9 Izturis 81

Next is the most common lineup deployed in 2008 by position in the field.

2008 G
By position Catcher Molina 114
1B Pujols 140
2B Kennedy 74
SS Izturis 110
3B Glaus 144
LF Duncan 40
CF Ankiel 84
RF Ludwick 106
P Lohse 33
DH Stavinoha/Pujols 3

Ludwick agrees: Cardinals arbitration scorecard complete


With the announcement on Monday that the St. Louis Cardinals came to an agreement with All-Star outfielder Ryan Ludwick on a one-year contract for the upcoming season, the book is now closed on the club’s 2009 arbitration eligible-cases.

The 30-year-old Ludwick was last of five eligible Cardinals players with from just under three to five-plus years of service time to settle, and in the process of doing so, avoided a salary arbitration hearing set for Tuesday in Phoenix, AZ. Outfielders Rick Ankiel and Chris Duncan plus pitchers Brad Thompson and Todd Wellemeyer all previously agreed to terms.

Ludwick’s new deal is for a reported $3.7 million, slightly above the midpoint between the Cardinals’ original offer of $2.8 million and the player’s $4.25 million filing. Ludwick can earn up to an additional $100,000 in incentives based on plate appearances. He can receive $25,000 at 625, another $25,000 at 650 and another $50,000 if he reaches 675.

Making just $421,000 last season, Ludwick’s increase represents a 779% bump over that 2008 take, by far the largest absolute as well as percentage increase among the five.

This was Ludwick’s first year through the process leading up to arbitration and unless he signs a long-term contract first, he could be in a similar place in each of the next two off-seasons. Ludwick will become eligible for free agency for the first time after the 2011 campaign.

The Cardinals avoid hearings if at all possible and have been pretty good at it recently. Their last salary arbitration hearing was held in 1999.

With that, following is a summary of how the Cardinals 2009 arbitration-eligible cases came out. For all intents and purposes, the players always win. The only real suspense is the amounts of their increases.

Only two players, Ankiel and Ludwick, progressed as far as exchanging figures with the club and having hearings scheduled. Wellemeyer and Duncan came to terms on January 19 and Thompson settled the very next day. Just three hours prior to his scheduled hearing last Thursday, Ankiel and the Cardinals also shook hands on a 2009 contract.

In total, the Cardinals will be paying $12,050,000 for the service of these five players this season, up from just $3,449,000 in 2008. My forecast was high at $13,750,000 primarily due to overshooting on Duncan’s and Thompson’s very modest contracts.

2008 2009 estimate Player Club 2009 actual Increase %
Ankiel $0.975 million $3.25 million $3.3 million $2.35 million $2.825 million 190%
Duncan $0.439 million $1.5 million $0.825 million 188%
Ludwick $0.421 million $4.0 million $4.25 million $2.8 million $3.700 million+ 779%
Thompson $0.414 million $1.0 million $0.650 million 57%
Wellemeyer $1.2 million $4.0 million $4.050 million 338%
Total $3.449 million $13.75 million $12.050 million
+ $100K incentives

Any debate over 2009 contracts for members of the Cardinals roster is now officially over. The only other players still unsigned are those with less than three years service time as major leaguers.

That group is obligated to accept whatever amount they are tendered by the club as long as the “offer” exceeds the minimum salary of $400,000 and is at least 80% of the amount earned in the previous season. The players choice is either to accept or not play, yet if they stick around, they too will become eligible for arbitration soon enough.

Look for those business-as-usual announcements early next month.

The Cardinals’ hole at second base


Like many who follow the St. Louis Cardinals closely, I was well aware that recently-released second baseman Adam Kennedy was essentially a part-time player during his two most recent seasons with the club despite having been signed to a three-year, $10 million contract in November, 2006.

Coming off a 2007 during which he had been slowed by injury and batted just .219, Kennedy was not fully able to claim the job as his own due to offensive inconsistency throughout 2008.

Yet until I looked at the numbers associated with the principals at the second base position last season, I did not fully appreciate how much of a job share it truly was, or what an offensive inequity existed between the players. (I did not include Kennedy’s hideous 2007, as it is obvious he was terrible that season, instead just focusing on 2008.)

Was Tony La Russa vindictive in wanting to keep Aaron Miles over Kennedy as some accuse or did the Cardinals’ skipper just realize the former is better offensively?

My conclusion from what you will see here is that the utilityman Miles may be missed more than even I first thought.

Kennedy vs. Miles – 2008

2008 total AB BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
Kennedy 339 0.280 0.321 0.372 0.692 86
Miles 379 0.317 0.355 0.398 0.753 102
vs RHP
Kennedy 265 0.283 0.326 0.392 0.719 85
Miles (LH) 268 0.317 0.345 0.407 0.752 94
vs LHP
Kennedy 74 0.270 0.299 0.297 0.596 72
Miles (RH) 111 0.315 0.377 0.378 0.755 97

In a comparison of the 12 center cells* in the above table, last season the switch-hitting Miles topped Kennedy in every single measure, including average, on-base, slugging and OPS, whether hitting against left- or right-handed pitchers. Kennedy’s supposed platoon advantage against right-handers is nowhere to be seen.

(* I lumped OPS and OPS+ together in the above statement, since by definition the relationship between the two is hard-wired.)

Of course, neither second baseman is Hall of Fame material, though the best season by Miles in 2008, an essentially major league-average level (102 OPS+), clearly outshone Kennedy’s top season of his two as a Cardinal returnee.

Interestingly, in terms of being in the opening lineup, both were basically part-timers, with 83 and 81 game starts respectively last season. Miles offered the added advantage of playing all over the diamond, though by September, Kennedy was being molded into a utilityman himself for the first time.

Starts 2008 Kennedy Miles
2B 74 49
DH 1
1B 2
RF 6
LF 3
3B 5
SS 24
Total 83 81

Adam ended up making a half-dozen starts in right field during the final month of the season after having covered first base for a few games in June while Albert Pujols was out. They were Kennedy’s first-ever stints at both positions as a major leaguer.

A historical view

La Russa’s deployment of the two at their natural position, second base, illustrates their relatively consistent usage there as starters over their two seasons together as Cardinals.

2B starts 2008 Games 2007 Games
Kennedy 74 Kennedy 75
Miles 49 Miles 62
Lopez 20
Ryan 18 Ryan 15
Barden 1 Barden 2
Spiezio 4
Cairo 4
Total 162 162

Looking at the data, one might conclude that rather than Kennedy having been the one to lose starts at second base to late-arrival Felipe Lopez, it was Miles who ended up seeing less time there.

Taking a bit of a historical side step, here is a snapshot of the recent highs and lows in terms of the primary starter at second base each season during the La Russa era in St. Louis, from 1996 through current.

Team leader Year Player Games
2B starts
highs 2001 Fernando Vina 150
2002 Fernando Vina 149
average 1996-2008 107
lows 2003 Bo Hart 65
2006 Aaron Miles 72

Considering Fernando Vina’s high-water years skewed the 13-year average to over 100 games, it is clear that a significant job-sharing arrangement at second base is not as unusual it might first seem.

In fact, in over half of La Russa’s seasons in St. Louis, seven of 13, his busiest second baseman started in 105 games or fewer. The least stable year at the position was 2003, when Bo Hart led the way with just 65 games started.

More on Miles

Yet Miles was also often deployed elsewhere – primarily as the reserve shortstop, first through David Eckstein’s injuries and later, Cesar Izturis’ struggles at the plate. He did become a credible, if not stalwart defender at the position. Not surprisingly however, the numbers indicate that Miles seemed most comfortable offensively when playing second base.

2008 as 2B AB BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
Kennedy 278 0.270 0.310 0.324 0.634 71
Miles 223 0.341 0.377 0.439 0.817 119

When Miles departed St. Louis after being non-tendered for essentially the third year in a row, La Russa’s comments were exceptionally complimentary.

“We took a big hit with Miles (leaving),” La Russa told the Post-Dispatch in early January. “I never had a teammate any better than Aaron Miles, in all of the years I’ve managed. This guy deserves every bit of credit, recognition, respect for his three years with us that you could give him. This guy was really good for us. It was paining for him to leave us, and he left, and that’s a tough loss.”

At the time, I wrote that off as La Russa simply being politically correct, but looking at these numbers, I can see a bit more of the reason why the manager may have felt that way.

All for the team

Here we have Kennedy’s and Miles’ 2008 numbers split between games the Cardinals won and games they lost.

In 2008 wins AB BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
Kennedy 174 0.310 0.358 0.443 0.800 86
Miles 199 0.332 0.364 0.432 0.796 86

Last season, in Cardinals victories, Kennedy and Miles were essentially the same player. Miles had a better average, but only slightly better on-base mark, while Kennedy had a bit more power.

In 2008 losses AB BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
Kennedy 165 0.248 0.279 0.297 0.576 83
Miles 180 0.300 0.345 0.361 0.706 125

On the other hand, when the Cards were losing, Kennedy’s OPS was absolutely terrible, 20 points worse than even his putrid results against lefties. Miles continued to put up good numbers as the club was trying to come back from deficits, especially when compared to the league (125 OPS+).

That led me to go one step farther – to check on how the Cardinals did as a team when these two were starting.

Of course, there are many other factors that determine a win or loss that may be more important than the offensive contribution of the second baseman. Still these numbers have proven to be most interesting.

Starting with Kennedy, we see that the 2008 Cardinals had a sub-.500 win rate, both in any game in which he participated as well as the subset of contests in which he started at second base. Kennedy’s starting mark at all positions combined was buoyed by a 5-1 record posted by the club during his late-September outfield tryout.

2008 Win Loss %
Cardinals 86 76 0.531
with Kennedy 57 58 0.496
w/AK start 43 40 0.518
w/AK start 2B 36 38 0.486
w/others start 2B 50 38 0.568
w/AK start DH 1 0 1.000
w/AK start 1B 1 1 0.500
w/AK start RF 5 1 0.833

It is also worth noting the club lost the same number of games, 38, whether Kennedy started at second or not, yet when another second baseman was in the lineup, they picked up 14 more victories than they did when Kennedy was in there.

Miles’ data tells a different story.

2008 Win Loss %
Cardinals 86 76 0.531
with Miles 67 67 0.500
w/AM start 43 38 0.531
w/AM start 2B 28 21 0.571
w/others start 2B 58 55 0.513
w/AM start SS 11 13 0.458
w/AM start 3B 3 2 0.600
w/AM start LF 1 2 0.333

When Miles was in the lineup at second base or even when coming off the bench, the Cardinals were a winning club. The only exception was when Aaron was given the start at shortstop, reinforcing a point I made earlier.

The bottom line

When putting this all together, I can understand completely why La Russa came out in favor of keeping Miles over Kennedy.

The manager has been known to make dismissive remarks about stats being elevated in importance over what is seen by his eyes, yet in this case, both views seem in concert.

The reality is that we all have to deal with the fact that both players are gone from the 2009 club. Some combination of the contenders now in camp will need to step up and claim what I would forecast, barring a new entrant into the contest, to be a share of an either stated or unstated platoon arrangement at second base this coming season.

Cardinals non-roster invitees – an update


With the recent addition of three minor leaguers, Shaun Garceau, Katsuhiko Maekawa and Brad Furnish, the number of non-roster invitees (NRIs) set to arrive at the St. Louis Cardinals spring training camp this weekend has grown to 23.

In terms of the primary complement of players in spring training camp, the contents of the 40-man roster, that total has now dropped to 34 players with the subtraction of just-released second baseman Adam Kennedy.

Given these changes and some further work I have done on past NRIs since last time, it seems a good time to revisit the subject for an update as well as an expansion.

I will also note a post by Derrick Goold on his blog that highlights some of the top NRIs in 2009 camp. He did stub his toe slightly on the historical references by labeling Quinton McCracken an NRI, though the outfielder wasn’t. (McCracken was on the 40-man roster in 2001 camp.) In all fairness, several of the current NRIs are Goold’s primary focus and he knows those guys well.

First up here are the updated totals for 2009 along with a longer historical view back to 2000. I will note that the past totals are not necessarily the exact numbers on day one of camp. In some seasons, players were added after spring training was underway. Instead, these numbers include all players in camp those springs.

In other words, don’t be surprised if the 2009 totals change again, but don’t worry. I’ll keep everyone updated if you are not already into this subject yourselves.

Update 2/28: Hyang-Nam Choi added (Clayton Mortensen injured). Corrected McCormick not added. (MLB.com report in error.) NRI total is 26.

Update 2/26: Mark McCormick and Trey Hearne added (Matt Scherer and Mitchell Boggs slowed). Updated NRI total is 26.

Update 2/24: Justin Fiske added. New NRI total 24.

In camp 2009x Avg 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
Roster 34 39 40 40 38 38 38 40 38 40 40
NRI 26 23 29 19 23 20 24 23 20 22 26
Total in camp 60 62 69 59 61 58 62 63 58 62 66
x as of 2/28/09
2009 Avg 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
NRI made 25-man TBD 2 2 0 2 2 3 4 1 3 2

As a refresher, here are the identities of the 26 non-roster invitees so far this spring.

Pitchers (14) Catchers (6) Infielders (4) Outfielders (2)
Tyler Herron Bryan Anderson Allen Craig Jon Jay
Clayton Mortensen Tony Cruz David Freese Colby Rasmus
Ian Ostlund Luis De La Cruz Joe Thurston
Adam Ottavino Steven Hill Brett Wallace
Fernando Salas Justin Knoedler
Francisco Samuel Matt Pagnozzi
Jess Todd
P.J. Walters
Brad Furnish added 2/10
Katsuhiko Maekawa added 2/10
Shaun Garceau added 2/10
Justin Fiske added 2/24
Mark McCormick added 2/26
Trey Hearne added 2/26
Hyang-Nam Choi added 2/28

In my earlier NRI article mentioned above, for each recent season, I had highlighted several well-known players that either made the club as an NRI or failed in their attempt. Wouldn’t you know it; a subsequent request was made to share the names of every NRI player.

Being a sucker for reader challenges on interesting topics, I took the bait and did the work.

I have broken the list from left to right into those few who made the team, including the three first-time MLBers, followed by veterans cut, split between pitchers and position players (called “hitters” to save space). Next are the youngsters that didn’t make the team, also broken out by pitchers and position players.

The final column lists the extra catchers, at least one of whom remains a genuine prospect. That is Bryan Anderson (pictured), who in 2009 is attending his fourth consecutive big league spring camp as a member of the organization.

That is a record since 2000 at least, but being Rule 5-eligible this coming winter means that odds are very low that Anderson will have the opportunity to extend his NRI streak to five in a row in 2010. More than likely, he will finally be on the Cardinals 40-man roster or will be gone.

2008 NRI made 25-man Veteran pitcher cut Veteran hitter cut Rookie pitcher cut Rookie hitter cut Extra catchers
Ron Villone Cliff Politte Juan Gonzalez Mitchell Boggs David Freese Bryan Anderson
Rico Washington * Dewan Brazelton D’Angelo Jimenez Hugo Castellanos Amaury Marti Nick Derba
* 1st MLB action Ron Flores Josh Phelps Jaime Garcia Colby Rasmus Gabe Johnson
John Wasdin Clayton Mortensen Nick Stavinoha Mark Johnson
Adam Ottavino Matt Pagnozzi
Chris Perez Brandon Yarbrough
P.J. Walters David Carpenter
Tyler Herron
Stuart Pomeranz
2007 NRI made 25-man Veteran pitcher cut Veteran hitter cut Rookie pitcher cut Rookie hitter cut Extra catchers
none Mike Smith Eli Marrero Kelvin Jimenez Rick Ankiel Bryan Anderson
Jolbert Cabrera Chris Lambert Tagg Bozied Ryan Christianson
Ryan Ludwick Mike Parisi Edgar Gonzalez Brian Esposito
Mike Sillman Miguel Negron Michel Hernandez
Mark Worrell Colby Rasmus Danilo Sanchez
2006 NRI made 25-man Veteran pitcher cut Veteran hitter cut Rookie pitcher cut Rookie hitter cut Extra catchers
Josh Hancock Alan Benes Dave Berg Andy Cavazos none Bryan Anderson
Scott Spiezio Brian Falkenborg Brian Daubach Randy Leek Brian Esposito
Jeff Nelson Ramon Nivar Rich Rundles Iker Franco
Blaine Neal Prentice Redman Gabe Johnson
John Riedling Jason Motte
Dennis Tankersley Kit Pellow
Brad Voyles
John Webb
2005 NRI made 25-man Veteran pitcher cut Veteran hitter cut Rookie pitcher cut Rookie hitter cut Extra catchers
Bill Pulsipher Bob File Raul Gonzalez Jeremy Cummings Skip Schumaker Brad Cresse
Abraham Nunez Toby Borland Mike Bell Anthony Reyes Chris Duncan Gabe Johnson
Chris Gissell Wilton Guerrero Brad Thompson Jason Motte
Nerio Rodriguez Brandon Berger Dan Moylan
Hector Mercado
2004 NRI made 25-man Veteran pitcher cut Veteran hitter cut Rookie pitcher cut Rookie hitter cut Extra catchers
Tony Womack Alan Benes Kevin Witt Matt Duff none Mike Mahoney
Ray Lankford Doug Creek Emil Brown Tyler Johnson Yadier Molina
Cody McKay Randy Flores Greg Vaughn Spike Lundberg Dan Moylan
Joe Horgan Wilson Delgado Matt Pagnozzi
Alan Levrault Scott Seabol
Chad Paronto John Mabry
Jason Pearson Mark Quinn
2003 NRI made 25-man Veteran pitcher cut Veteran hitter cut Rookie pitcher cut Rookie hitter cut Extra catchers
Cal Eldred Todd Erdos Kurt Abbott Juan Pena John Nelson Kevin Brown
Lance Painter Nerio Rodriguez Jose Nieves Kevin Ohme Mike Peeples Alex Delgado
Russ Springer John Snyder Ivanon Coffie Dan Moylan
Kiko Calero * Dan Serafini Jon Nunnally Luis Rodriguez
* 1st MLB action Todd Dunwoody Yadier Molina
Alex Ochoa
2002 NRI made 25-man Veteran pitcher cut Veteran hitter cut Rookie pitcher cut Rookie hitter cut Extra catchers
Eduardo Perez Rich Loiselle Al Martin Kevin Sheredy Ryan Balfe Matt Garrick
Gabe Molina Mike Coolbaugh Clint Weibl Stubby Clapp B.J. Wasgis
Travis Smith Wilson Delgado Chris Duncan Jamie Pogue
Chris Snopek Chris Haas
Ernie Young Tony Mota
Luis Saturria
2001 NRI made 25-man Veteran pitcher cut Veteran hitter cut Rookie pitcher cut Rookie hitter cut Extra catchers
John Mabry Dan Carlson Shane Andrews Bud Smith Stubby Clapp David Benham
Jeff Tabaka Mike Cather Bernard Gilkey Blake Williams Luis Garcia Mike Figga
Albert Pujols* Jim Corsi Kevin Polcovich Lou Lucca Matt Garrick
* 1st MLB action Rick Krivda Kerry Robinson Mike Stefanski
Rafael Medina
Heathcliff Slocumb
2000 NRI made 25-man Veteran pitcher cut Veteran hitter cut Rookie pitcher cut Rookie hitter cut Extra catchers
Shawon Dunston Jim Dougherty Brian McRae John Ambrose Lou Lucca David Benham
Dave Wainhouse Rick Heiserman Ernie Young Justin Brunette Chris Haas Steve Bieser
John Hudek Glenn Murray Chad Hutchinson Chris Richard Keith McDonald
Mike James Casey Candaele Jason Woolf Henry Mercedes
Luis Garcia Luis Saturria Marc Ronan
Eduardo Perez
Rick Wilkins

It is worth noting that I perhaps should have split the rookies out even further. Their common thread is lack of significant MLB experience. Yet among the legitimate farmhands trying to work their way to the top is a hybrid, former pitcher turned rookie hitter Rick Ankiel (2007) as well as career minor league journeymen such as Tagg Bozied, who was also in camp that same spring.

Another interesting name for trivia lovers is that of Matt Pagnozzi, nephew of beloved former Cardinals catcher Tom Pagnozzi (in St. Louis from 1987 through 1998). The younger catcher may have set a record of his own when he was passed over for three seasons between his initial invite in 2004 and his next chance in 2008.

With his current invite, Pags the junior has snagged his second in a row and third overall. That must have excited Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch who mentioned him as one of three catching candidates to make the big league roster should Yadier Molina or Jason LaRue require time on the DL. That seems overly-optimistic for a career .208 hitter over six minor league seasons.

Selig’s plans often lead nowhere


Considerable segments of the baseball world are up in arms over MLB Commissioner Bud Selig’s remarks as part of the fallout from the Alex Rodriguez steroid revelations.

Speaking to USAToday, Selig was asked about the rekindled steroids furor.

“This is breaking my heart, I don’t mind telling you that,” the commissioner said.

Asked if he would consider reinstating Hank Aaron as the all-time home run king and adding an asterisk or some other notation to the statistics of Barry Bonds, Rodriguez and others involved in baseball’s steroid controversy, Selig offered faint hope.

“Once you start tinkering, you can create more problems. But I’m not dismissing it. I’m concerned. I’d like to get some more evidence,” Selig said.

That suggestion caused a furor all over the game as foxholes were dug even deeper over the wide-ranging potential impact of re-writing the record books. Among the reactions was from Aaron himself. Secure in his legacy and always graceful even as there is turmoil all around, Hammerin’ Hank simply said that Bonds can keep his record.


Selig was also asked what he might do about A-Rod.

“It was against the law, so I would have to think about that,” Selig said of possible action against Rodriguez. “It’s very hard. I’ve got to think about all that kind of stuff.”

Of course, there seems no chance A-Rod will be punished any more than any of the other players named in previous steroid cases did. Selig knows any action would be akin to declaring war against the Players Union, something that just isn’t going to happen.


He knows that. We all know that. So why not be open and honest about it?


Instead, the master of the “I’ll have to study this” continues to feed his personal brand of pablum to the hungry masses. I, for one, am not eating it up.


Selig has a long and consistent history in terms of dealing with controversial matters, using time-tested techniques of conflict avoidance.


Step one: Express deep-felt personal concern.

Step two: Make vague comments suggesting the matter might be resolved.

Step three: Vow to study the issue.

Step four: If at all possible, avoid ever discussing it again.

Step five: If pressed, state progress is being made.

Step six: Repeat steps one through five as necessary.

Step seven: Finally take action only if absolutely forced to do so, preferably by appointing a study committee. Rinse and repeat.


Without going anywhere near the Mitchell Report or any further into other steroids-related subjects, here is a look at some key topics in recent times and Selig’s responses.


May 2006 – Fans nationwide are outraged over complicated and illogical MLB television blackout rules.

“I don’t understand (blackouts) myself,” Selig said at a luncheon with the Baseball Writers Association of America. “I get blacked out from some games.”


“Right now,” he said, “I don’t know what to do about it. We’ll figure it out.”


“I hear more about people who can’t get the game,” Selig said, “and, yes, I’ve already told our people we have to do something about it.”

Almost three years later, despite being “spurred on by thousands of letters from angry fans”, according to Yahoo Sports, the blackout policy has been tabled in multiple ownership meetings over the last several years and is not on track to be resolved for 2009.

Result: No resolution


November 2007 – GMs endorse instant replay by 25-5 vote.

For years an outspoken opponent of instant replay in any form, Selig was seemingly finally outgunned by the clubs when in November 2007, general managers voted 25-5 in favor of exploring the use of instant replay on a limited basis.

Still dragging his feet despite the clear mandate, as recently as a July 15 “Town Hall Meeting” on MLB.com, Selig was asked directly if he was going to institute instant replay in 2008.

“I am not,” Selig said flatly.

While acknowledging the matter was under study, his comments remained guarded and non-committal.

Selig finally caved after several embarrassing high-profile blown calls on home runs affected game outcomes. On September 3, instant replay was used for the first time in MLB history. Most ironically, the first call was to reaffirm an Alex Rodriguez home run in Tampa.

Result: Stall until being forced into action


July 2008 – 15 inning All-Star Game exposes rosters with too few players – again.

Stung by his embarrassing decision to have to declare the 2002 All-Star Game in his own Miller Park in Milwaukee a tie (remember the unfortunately timed “This time it really counts” marketing slogan?), Selig had a flashback this past summer, as both teams nearly ran out of pitchers during the 15-inning All-Star Game at Yankee Stadium.

Selig told the AP that he was considering expanding All-Star rosters by two pitchers to ensure that position players wouldn’t have to take the mound if the game again goes well into extra innings.

In a positive, the commissioner did rule out gimmicky alterations of the rules to conclude an extra-inning All-Star game more quickly such as the approach tested at the Beijing Olympics. There, each team’s at-bat starting in the 11th inning began with runners on first and second.

“It’s meant to be played to completion,” Selig said. “I thought we had forever solved the problem, and we had. Everything we did worked, but we may put an additional safeguard in.”

Result: No resolution


August 2008 – Manny Ramirez dogs his way out of Boston so he and agent Scott Boras can hit the free agent market.

The Boston Red Sox held club options at $20 million per season for the services of outfielder Manny Ramirez in both 2009 and 2010. His new agent Scott Boras would not receive commission on those options if exercised. Both agent and player likely saw the opportunity to make more on the open market.

Allegations included Boras telling the Sox that Manny would play hard for the rest of the 2008 season if they would agree to not to pick up the options, a claim Boras of course denied.

When the Sox were forced to trade Manny, a condition of the deal with the Dodgers was to decline the two option years. Ramirez and Boras are reportedly asking for $25 million per season over three years, but as of now, Manny is unsigned.

From the Boston Globe last August:

“…Bud Selig directed Major League Baseball executive vice president Rob Manfred to contact all parties for an explanation of how things unfolded around last week’s trading deadline.”

Result: No action

My final example epitomizes the “no-decision” reign of Selig.


January 1973 – Owners vote in the use of the designated hitter in the American League for a three-year trial.

Sort of like Gilligan and the Skipper on their seemingly-endless three-hour cruise, the issue of the designated hitter remains lost at sea after 36 years.

I am not here to debate the merits of or concerns about the DH, though I admit that I do have strong personal opinions. Instead, my point is that an entire generation of fans has grown up with a rule that is inconsistent across the two leagues, something that is clearly unique in sports.

There have been many resulting complications, including artificial interleague and post-season play advantages received as a result of the lack of standardization.

Instead of getting to the bottom of the inequity, in 2005, Selig made the ridiculous suggestion of using AL rules in NL parks during interleague play and vice-versa, as if that would solve anything. Needless to say, that generated little to no support from anyone.

In the same “Town Hall Meeting” this past July noted above, Selig re-affirmed the non-status status of the DH. He doesn’t even call this issue a back-burner one.

“(The DH) Hasn’t been debated for at least 25 to 30 years,” Selig concluded.

“So other than some catalytic event occurring, I think that’s the way it’s going to stay. I think, look, the game has grown like it never has. We’re going to set another attendance record. So I guess I have to say our fans accepted it pretty well.”

Result: No action planned


There you have it. Whether broken or not, the game has been making gobs of money, so that tells Selig and the owners that fans are accepting of pretty much everything.

I could go on, but you get the idea. These issues and many more that have been festering for months and in some cases, years, will soon be pushed back into the headlines as the 2009 season approaches.

For those currently worried that Selig will seriously try to change baseball records or discipline A-Rod. Forget it.

If the pressure gets really strong, expect a committee to nowhere to be assigned. Add in generous amounts of additional time to deal with owners or the Players Union or the umpires association or Congress or whoever else has an opinion.

In the meantime, be prepared for more concerned quotes being generated with precious little results to follow.

Steroid epidemic’s roots in race, says columnist


In terms of subjects I would normally consider to be in the gray area of what is appropriate to discuss in this blog include that of race. Yet a number of mainstream columnists make this a common theme in their writings, including Bryan Burwell of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Jason Whitlock of the Kansas City Star.

Since blogging by nature is often about commenting about what others are commenting about, I feel I must call attention to a pair of articles that are running on FoxSports.com written by Whitlock.

Looking for a fresh angle and someone new to blame for the steroids mess in sports, Whitlock lays a claim that is even wild coming from him:

“…the steroid epidemic was sparked by white athletes trying to keep pace with black athletes.”

The first article presents the idea amid an embarrassing wreckage of seemingly random thoughts. After some 2000 reader comments along with who knows how many additional notes sent to his personal email address, his follow-on article attempts to explain. While the second is more focused than the first, that fundamental assertion ties the two together.

Whitlock came to his conclusion by referencing his own experiences as a high school and college football player, a world in which he thinks whites and blacks alike bought into the “myth” that blacks were the athletically superior group. The use of the word “myth” is Whitlock’s own as this most basic point in his case is one the author states he personally does not believe.

The line of thinking goes on to assert that the families and coaches, predominately white, explicitly or implicitly encouraged steroid use and because of it, the majority of steroid users in the 1970s and 1980s were white. Whitlock believes this to have been pervasive in America simply because it is what he saw in his own town and college.

Only by the 1990s did the epidemic apparently become “colorless” in Whitlock’s words, yet the writer does not explain what caused it to encompass all races, nor does he provide any supporting data.

There is a huge Rose Mary Woods-like 18-½ minute gap in Whitlock’s story as to how the suspected moves of paranoid whites in the suburbs eventually managed to consume all of sports. He offers no hard or even spongy evidence of proof whatsoever, just his personal opinions.

For example, he did not speculate as to what drove the most prominent athletes in the granddaddy of all steroids scandals, BALCO, to use.

I am referring to Marion Jones, Tim Montgomery and of course, the most controversial of all, Barry Bonds, all black. As top individuals in their sports, track and field and baseball respectively, why did they start?

I can fill in the blank. It is all about the quest for money and fame and trying to figure out any edge possible over the next guy or gal who is after the exact same thing.

It has nothing to do with race and everything to do with THE race.

Whitlock offers his fix, if you want to call it that.

“The beginning of a solution remains the same. Pressure needs to be applied to coaches at the high school and college levels and coaches, management and ownership at the professional level,” the writer naively suggests.

Hasn’t he ever heard of the MLBPA and their peers? Does he not understand professional athletes of all types today have a level of independence that puts them above lecturing from coaches and team officials?

Still, steroids education in the schools and in the NCAA has come a long way since Whitlock suited up. Exactly what more in terms of awareness can and should be done at those levels?

As I see it, the best chance for steroid deterrence is through stronger testing and penalties which require the cooperation of all parties to be put in place. This needs to be a common and constant agenda in all of sports at all levels, as the target is continually moving.

Bottom line, how does the supposed origin of the problem having been race-driven 30 years ago have anything to do with Whitlock’s solution offered today? Exactly what purpose did playing the poorly-presented race card serve, anyway?

Like so many unsuccessfully trying to deal with complex issues, Whitlock simply reverts to what he does best in trying to make this black and white.

Pujols’ non-comments on A-Rod include Cardinals relief


In between a humanitarian/World Baseball Classic training mission to his homeland of the Dominican Republic this month and reporting to spring training this coming weekend, Albert Pujols made an appearance at a baseball clinic in Kansas City on Thursday.

While in the Dominican, among the WBC players with whom Pujols worked out was embattled New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, the current flashpoint for an entire generation of baseball’s mistakes. The two are pictured here together on February 3 of this year.

The world’s desire for juicy tidbits to report on the situation has meant everyone from Yankees captain Derek Jeter to the most obscure clubhouse boys are getting microphones pushed in their face, looking for any kind of A-Rod reaction.

Jeter, who became very savvy with the New York press as a survival vehicle, has made it clear he is not going to discuss Rodriguez until all reporters have arrived in Yankees camp.

He is really smart. Like A-Rod himself, just cover it once and try to move on.

What about Pujols?

Like seemingly every one of the 2000 or more players that will be reporting to WBC and major league spring training camps this coming week, the Cardinals star was asked while in Kansas City to comment on the scandal.

Being the wary individual that he is, Pujols answered, but didn’t.

“I’m making no comment about that,” Pujols told the Kansas City Star.

Of course, Albert couldn’t stop there. He had to say a bit more to qualify himself.

“That’s one thing I learned. Every time I say something, if I try to stick (up) for one side, they always try to throw me in the heap. So I don’t want to comment on that,” Pujols wisely observed.

He probably should have stopped there.

The final sentence of the quote was clearly well-intended, but seems naive.

“I’m just glad nobody on my team has had problems with that,” was Pujols’ conclusion.

Now, I interpret that to mean that Pujols is simply relieved that none of his Cardinals teammates are in today’s news for steroids-related transgressions. That way, Albert won’t have to deal with the numerous associated distractions as he prepares for the 2009 season.

I get that.

I am not picking on Albert’s words here, but using them to make another related point.

One might make another interpretation from the remarks that the Cardinals have been conflict-free with regard to steroid-related accusations.

Nothing could be further from the truth. It’s just that the news is yesterday’s, not today’s.

At least three stalwarts on the 2009 St. Louis Cardinals have been in the news in recent times for steroids-related issues. They include reliever Ryan Franklin, outfielder Rick Ankiel and third baseman Troy Glaus.

While with Seattle, Franklin was suspended for ten games during the 2005 season for violating MLB’s joint drug prevention and treatment program. He denied any knowledge.

“There’s got to be a flaw in the system. I have no clue. I tested in [early] May and again three weeks later. The first was positive, the second was negative,” Franklin said at the time.

I am unaware of any more recent accusations against him.

In 2007, Ankiel was identified as having received a year’s supply of human growth hormone in 2004 from an internet pharmacy under investigation. Ankiel stated that any medications he took were prescribed by his physicians.

As part of the same 2007 disclosures, Glaus, a former World Series MVP and four-time All-Star, was fingered as having received multiple shipments of performance-enhancing drugs in 2003 and 2004 via a California anti-aging clinic, filled by the same Florida pharmacy linked to Ankiel.

Both the Franklin and Glaus incidents allegedly occurred before they joined St. Louis, information the club was aware of before bringing the players in. Yet there are others accused that may have been Cardinals at the time of use, but have since moved on.

I bring this up not to dredge up old dirt, but to remind us of the pervasive nature of baseball’s problem.

So maybe none of Albert’s teammates have problems in the headlines today, but what about the other 103 players who tested positive in the 2003 supposedly-anonymous testing?

Given there are 30 teams in Major League Baseball, sheer probability would indicate that three or four Cardinals could be among those 103 still unnamed offenders. They might be players already knocked down, or there could be other hidden surprises.

Here is hoping that those names are not released and baseball can move ahead to try once again to heal its newly-reopened wounds.

Here is hoping that Pujols’ relief over the fact that his teammates names (or his own) are not on the front pages continues.

On the other hand, anyone, whether players, officials, fans, broadcasters, or writers who think an A-Rod-like mess couldn’t happen on “their” team today, tomorrow or next week are completely out of touch with reality.

Cardinals emergency pitchers – 1996-2008


While I have been lamenting the St. Louis Cardinals’ decision to let infielder Aaron Miles go, it probably isn’t for the same reason that most Miles-backers cite for their dissatisfaction. Sure, it looks especially bad now that Adam Kennedy has been sent packing, leaving behind a gaggle of unprovens to try to assume both veterans’ roles in 2009.

Nope, I am disappointed because Cards skipper Tony La Russa has lost his most active career performer in the role of a hitter playing a pitcher.

Three times over the last two seasons, the manager called on the utilityman to secure the final three outs in blowout losses. Twice Miles accomplished his mission without allowing further damage.

In recent years, La Russa has stepped up his use of this tactic, with four different such relief appearances over the 2007 and 2008 seasons, three by Miles and the other by former infielder Scott Spiezio in 2007. Rarely does La Russa wave the white flag in any game, but perhaps there have been more one-sided defeats than normal since the world championship flag was raised.

The frequency of this approach in the last two years equated La Russa’s previous level over his initial 11 years as Cardinals manager. From 1996 through 2006, La Russa made such a call just four times. Cody McKay did it in 2004, Bobby Bonilla in 2001 and Gary Gaetti in both 1997 and 1998.

In every case, these non-pitcher pitchers were asked to secure the final outs of a blowout loss. Only once was the reliever brought on during an inning and only one other time was the outing longer than three outs in duration.

In aggregate, the position players-turned-pitchers allowed four earned runs in 8 1/3 innings or a 4.32 ERA. None of them were able to log the ultimate, a strikeout.

One of the very first questions I am going to ask La Russa when I arrive at spring training is to quiz him on the identity of his new 2009 “emergency pitcher”, replacing Miles. Or maybe I should ask his third base coach instead.

Of course, the most famous Cardinals position player-turned-emergency pitcher of this generation is none other than current third base coach Jose Oquendo. “Secret Weapon” took the mound three different times – in 1987, 1988 and 1991 – but was scored upon each time for a career ERA of 12.00.

His defining mound outing came on May 14-15, 1988, when he was called upon to pitch the 16th inning against the Atlanta Braves at home. Oquendo remained on the bump to toss three scoreless innings, including logging one strikeout, before losing the game in the 19th on a two-run double by Ken Griffey, Sr. It was the first decision in the majors by an non-pitcher in 20 years. For the record, Jose’s strikeout victim was pitcher Rick Mahler.

Here are the logs for the eight “emergency pitcher” outings by Cardinals position players since 1996.

2008 – one appearance

2008 Date Opp Score Inn IP H R ER BB K HR Pit Str
Aaron Miles 13-Jun Phi L 2-20 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 7

On June 13, Miles took the ball in the ninth to close out a game that Todd Wellemeyer just wasn’t up for. The starter had uncorked three wild pitches and yielded three home runs in 3 1/3 innings. Miles was the only one of the five hurlers not to yield a run. The game also marked the fourth and final appearance of Mark Worrell in a Cardinals uniform.

2007 – three appearances

2007 Date Opp Score Inn IP H R ER BB K HR Pit Str
Aaron Miles 20-Sep Hou L 1-18 9 1 3 2 2 0 0 1 16 11
Aaron Miles 4-Aug at Was L 1-12 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 6
Scott Spiezio 15-Jun at Oak L 3-14 8 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 20 10

Finishing out the disappointing non-playoff season, the Cardinals were getting spanked at home by the Houston Astros on September 20. While Miles hit a batter and yielded a home run to catcher J.R. Towles in the ninth, he still allowed the fewest runs of any of the five St. Louis hurlers that day.

On August 4 in Washington, Miles pitched a perfect eighth to close out a 12-1 loss. Again, he was the only pitcher of the four that day to not be charged with a run. The defense contributed by tacking on four unearned runs to the team total.

Spiezio made his only career appearance on the mound on June 15 at Oakland. He finished up by tossing a scoreless eighth, though it took him 20 pitches to get three outs. Yet all three pitchers who preceded him were charged with runs.

2005, 2006 – none

2004 – one appearance

2004 Date Opp Score Inn IP H R ER BB K HR Pit Str
Cody McKay 8-Apr Mil L 5-11 8,9 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 19 10

In just the fourth game of the season, La Russa gave the ball to his back up third baseman and catcher McKay. The first base coach’s son threw two hitless, scoreless innings at the Brewers, walking only one, the longest non-scoring outing of this type. McKay was also the only Cardinals pitcher to be unscored upon in that game.

2002, 2003 – none

2001 – one appearance

2001 Date Opp Score Inn IP H R ER BB K HR Pit Str
Bobby Bonilla 17-Apr Ari L 4-17 9 1 3 2 2 1 0 1 22 13

The 38-year-old Bonilla, in his final season as an active player, made his only mound appearance in 16 years as a big-leaguer. Ironically, it was on 4/17 that he allowed the final two runs in a 4-17 home loss to Arizona. Bobby Bo yielded a long ball to Erubiel Durazo and added a balk during his 22-pitch outing. This game also brought to an end the two-week major league career of former bonus baby Chad Hutchinson, who was charged with seven runs in 1 2/3 relief innings that evening.

1999, 2000 – none

1998 – one appearance

1998 Date Opp Score Inn IP H R ER BB K HR Pit Str
Gary Gaetti 24-Jul at Col L 3-12 8 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 16 9

The Miles of his era, third baseman Gaetti, made his second mound appearance in as many years. This time, it was at altitude in Colorado on July 24. Though he allowed a couple of singles, G-Man escaped unscathed as he pitched the final frame.

1997 – one appearance

1997 Date Opp Score Inn IP H R ER BB K HR Pit Str
Gary Gaetti 20-Sep at Pit L 1-10 8 0.1 1 0 0 0 0 0 12 8

Gaetti made the only documented appearance of a Cardinals non-pitcher taking the mound in the middle of an inning during the La Russa era when he was called upon on September 20. Jose Bautista had already allowed three Pirates runs in the eighth when Gaetti took over with the bases loaded and two out. It didn’t go all that well as two of his inherited runners scored on an infield single and a hit batter. Bautista’s final appearance as a major leaguer was just five days away.

1996 – none

Ankiel settles for $2.825 million prior to hearing


As has now been reported all over the internet, just prior to their scheduled Thursday arbitration hearing, the St. Louis Cardinals and outfielder Rick Ankiel came to terms on a one-year contract for $2.825 million. There is no word on whether there are any additional incentives.

That represents the midpoint between the $3.3 million Ankiel and agent Scott Boras requested and the $2.35 million the Cardinals originally offered. The 29-year-old pitcher-turned-outfielder hit 25 home runs in 413 at-bats in his first season as a full-time outfielder in the majors in 2008. The left-handed hitter can become a free agent following the 2009 season.

Even in compromise, Ankiel came out a winner. The increase of $1.85 million is 190%, or just under twice the amount of his 2008 salary of $975,000. Put another way, Ankiel came just $100,000 short of tripling his previous season’s pay.

In a press release Thursday, Cardinals’ Vice President/General Manager John Mozeliak said, “We are excited to get this deal done and put the process behind us. Everyone felt that this agreement was fair to both parties and we can now look forward to another strong season of play from Rick.”

I am surprised, but positively so. I had expected the two sides to battle it out and let the arbiters decide. Instead, settling at the midpoint seems most fair for both sides. It is refreshing to see the arbitration process work as designed – to encourage compromise rather than conflict.

Outfielder Ryan Ludwick is the last of the five Cardinals arbitration-eligible players to come to terms. His hearing is scheduled in Phoenix next Tuesday, February 17. Ludwick has requested $4.25 million while the Cardinals have offered $2.8 million.

Who gets Cardinals number seven?


Ah, the prestige of the single digit uniform number.

In an interesting bit of synergy, the St. Louis Cardinals have ten world championships and ten retired numbers. (While their “numbers” are also retired, Rogers Hornsby and Jack Buck do not have actual numbers associated with them.)

Of the ten, four wore single digit numbers – Ozzie Smith’s number 1, Red Schoendienst at 2, Stan Musial with number 6 and Enos Slaughter with 9. Each is a Hall of Famer.

Before he was unceremoniously released earlier this week, second baseman Adam Kennedy, not to be confused for a future Hall of Famer, proudly wore number 7 for the last two seasons.

Kennedy became the 37th player or coach to do so since the club first experimented with numbers on their sleeves way back in 1923. In the summer of 1932, numbers initially appeared on the backs of the Cardinals uniforms. Early on, position players traditionally took 1 through 9 while pitchers were assigned from 10 up.

The number seven, known for its universal connotation of good luck, hasn’t been so great overall in terms of blessing the Cardinals players that wore it – and I am not even thinking of Kennedy when I say that.

There were a few standouts, however.

The best and most famous Cardinals number 7 was undoubtedly outfielder Joe “Ducky” Medwick, one of the most beloved players of the Gas House Gang era and the last National League player to take the Triple Crown, in 1937. (Wouldn’t it be great to see the current number 5 make his run for that title?)

Medwick wore the uniform with the number 7 from 1933 until his trade/sale to Brooklyn in 1940. Over at Scout.com two years ago, we ranked Ducky as the 12th-best Cardinals player of all time. (He was 11th on my personal list.)

The other most prominent Cardinals to don a uniform with “7” on the back were first baseman Bill White, in his end-of-career return to the club in 1969 and outfielder Reggie Smith, who was with the team from 1974 into the 1976 season.

More recently, in the Tony La Russa era which began in 1996, only five players have been assigned number 7. Like Kennedy, almost all of them were second basemen – four to be exact.

In addition to Kennedy (2007-2008), they had Ronnie Belliard (2006) who joined the club during their most recent world championship season in a trade for Hector Luna (2004-2006), whose number he assumed. The other number 7 second baseman during those years was Delino DeShields (1997-1998).

In between the latter two, we had one of the most polarizing Cardinals in recent times, outfielder J.D. Drew, who wore number 7 from 1999 through 2003, whether in the lineup, on the trainer’s table or on the disabled list.

Let’s consider the other single digit Cardinals currently on the roster.

Newcomer Khalil Greene snagged number 3, for a long time known as the designation for another shortstop, Edgar Renteria. Yadier Molina holds down number 4, worn earlier in the decade by second baseman Fernando Vina.

I forget who number 5 is, but I hear he is pretty good. Third baseman Troy Glaus completes the current single digit crew with his number 8, picked up from hitting coach Hal McRae, who now sports Jim Edmonds’ old number 15. Kennedy also previously donned number 8 back in 1999.

So, what might the Cardinals do with number 7 for the 2009 season?

If they were to land a big fish in a trade or via free agent signing, he might be the likely recipient. Yet that seems like a long shot proposition during this time of baseball belt-tightening. Instead, is there an in-house candidate deserving of the recognition?

While this wouldn’t entirely be akin to Mickey Mantle being assigned the number 7 as a 19-year-old rookie with the 1951 Yankees, anointed as the heir apparent to replace the club’s own number 5, retiring legend Joe DiMaggio in centerfield, I don’t see anyone among the current Cardinals in line for such an honor.

It is worth noting the man some might consider the Cardinals’ own young Mick, Colby Rasmus, has already been elevated up the uniform number pecking order.

The organization’s top prospect will be wearing number 28 this spring, a most unusual assignment for a non-roster invitee. That is quite the contrast from the 70’s and 80’s his peer group will be donning and the number 84 Rasmus himself was issued last spring.

Of the 18 pitchers on the 2009 spring roster, the lowest number is Kyle Lohse at 26. Before you suggest Adam Wainwright or Chris Carpenter might be in line to make a change to the lucky not-so-lucky number, be aware that single digit uniforms and Cardinals pitchers are like the Cubs and World Series victories.

OK, that is a bit of an exaggeration. It hasn’t quite been 101 years, but over half. Not only has no pitcher worn a single digit uniform in the La Russa era, there wasn’t one during the Torre, Herzog or even Schoendienst managerial stints either.

In fact, ever since the 1930’s, when the first numbers were aligned with spots in the batting order, pitchers just didn’t wear single digits, in St. Louis or anywhere else, for that matter. And while there are exceptions now and then, generally the low numbers have remained the exclusive domain of position players for over seventy years.

The last time I can verify that a Cardinals pitcher wore a single digit was 54 years ago, all the way back in 1955. For all of one game, half of his major league career, then-29 year old switch-hitting, right-handed reliever Tony Jacobs suited up wearing St. Louis uniform number 1.

It was on Opening Day, April 12, 1955, when Jacobs took the Wrigley Field mound during the second inning. Nine runs were charged to his two predecessors that day and in his two innings of work against his former Cubs teammates, Jacobs yielded four more. After that 14-4 loss, he would never again pitch in the majors.

Prior to Jacobs, Erv “Four Sack” Dusak was the last Cardinals pitcher to wear a single digit number. Though primarily an outfielder during his parts of nine seasons in the bigs, Dusak also pitched in 23 career games. His busiest mound season was in 1950 when he toed the rubber in 14 games, going 0-2 with a 3.56 ERA.

What digit was on Dusak’s uniform in 1950? You guessed it – number 7!

Perhaps the 2009 Cardinals will do with their current number 7 what they did during La Russa’s first season in St. Louis in 1996. That year, the number went unassigned. All things considered, it might be better that way.

Cardinals minor matters – February 11


I decided to post a round-up of recent news and may append other items to this entry as the day goes on.

Kennedy second-guessing

Many fans and columnists are confused by the decision and/or the timing of the release of second baseman Adam Kennedy by the Cardinals. I am not among them.

Tony La Russa apparently wanted Kennedy gone since before the holidays as he was concerned about a potential disruption in camp, with a competition coming for the second base job. Over the winter, the organization continued to try to get some value for the player, which makes sense given they owe him $4 million on the third and final year of his current contract. But with spring training just a week away, the club finally had to cut bait. Both views seem reasonable to me.

Kennedy has a good glove, but he is not alone in that. His offense is considerably below MLB average and for that reason, I am not sad to see him go. My only wish is that the Cardinals could have gotten something from Kennedy very early in the off-season. Before Arizona signed Felipe Lopez, there were rumors they were interested in Kennedy. Had that deal been done, perhaps either Lopez or Aaron Miles would still be Cardinals.

As I said yesterday, considering where things are now, let the kids fight it out during camp and if no one emerges, make a move late in March.

Weaver hanging on

Former Cardinals pitcher Jeff Weaver signed a minor league deal to return to the Dodgers, his home in 2004 and 2005. The contract is reportedly worth $500,000 if he makes the team. The 33-year-old right-hander split his time between Triple-A clubs for Milwaukee and Cleveland last summer, posting an ERA over six.

Most fans know the story of how the Cards rescued the former Tiger and Yankee off the Angels’ scrap heap after the latter club bumped Jeff in favor of his brother Jered. While Jeff Weaver went just 5-4, 5.18 to end the 2006 season for the Cards, he came up big in the post-season, going 3-2, 2.43 and winning the final game of the World Series.

As a result, he received an offer to return to St. Louis for 2007, but instead agent Scott Boras guided Weaver to Seattle, where a large mushroom cloud was soon sighted. It doesn’t seem to me that Boras cares about the fact that the most money isn’t always the best answer.


Looper to slide with Bernie Brewer

After being seemingly everyone’s second choice all winter, former Cardinals reliever-turned-starter Braden Looper is joining the 2009 Milwaukee Brewers rotation, joining former teammate Jeff Suppan.

The deal is reportedly a most reasonable one for the club, at one year, $4.75 million with a mutual option for 2010. Looper can choose to return to free agency after this coming season, giving him a chance to get back in the market if it improves. If Milwaukee declines the 2010 option and Looper accepts, he’ll be bought out for a lower amount. Looper’s 2010 salary has not been disclosed nor whether any incentives exist in the contract.


Somewhere, likely en route to spring training, Kyle Lohse is grinning again. Here’s hoping (again, still) that Chris Carpenter is going to be ok.


Pujols still standing behind his trainer

As the Alex Rodriguez furor continues, I ran across a very small Albert Pujols news item. The St. Louis Cardinals first baseman is hosting a hitting clinic this Thursday in the Kansas City area.

The site is a place called Millhouse AEP, an athletic training center focusing on strength and conditioning. Its owner is Chris Mihlfeld, also known as Pujols’ personal trainer and a friend of the star since his time at Maple Woods Community College ten years ago.

It is great to see that Albert is still standing behind his friend, the victim of a most unfortunate and unwarranted attack on his reputation back in 2006 that also attempted to wrongly smear Pujols’ name.

The website Deadspin published and later was forced to retract an unfounded accusation that Mihlfeld supplied PEDs to former pitcher Jason Grimsley. The photo in the article and much of the bad press that followed was directed at Pujols, an entirely innocent third party, but obviously a much bigger name to drag through the mud.

And folks wonder why mainstreamers like Bob Costas come out against internet writers for lack of accountability. (OK, so Costas’ comments overall were pretty ridiculous, but reports like the Mihlfeld one from sites that feature frathouse-type humor to try to appear edgy help no one that cares about credibility.)


Nick the backstop

In case you missed it, add one more player to the round about position changes underway in Cardinals spring training camp. The Post-Dispatch reported that GM John Mozeliak has announced that outfielder Nick Stavinoha is undergoing a position move to catcher.

Joe Strauss notes that the strong and stocky-built 26-year-old was an all-state catcher in high school in Houston. However, 2002 was a long time ago and there is a huge gap between high school and the major leagues.

Yet in the outfield, Stavinoha has not been mentioned among the top tier of candidates for a major league berth in 2009. He was likely destined for a return to Memphis, where outfield at-bats will be a fought-for commodity. Though he punished the ball in Triple-A last season, Stavinoha’s 57 at-bat MLB debut yielded a very soft .193/.217/.211 line.


Flores hopes for health, humidor

Jettisoned Cards left-handed reliever Randy Flores signed a one-year, $600,000 contract to return to his 2002 club, the Colorado Rockies. Coming off shoulder surgery, it is unclear when Flores will actually be ready to pitch. He has an out in his contract that he can exercise by April 30 if he is not in the majors.


Ankiel, Boras heading toward arbitration

I thought I had covered this ad nauseum, but the Cardinals and Rick Ankiel, represented by agent Scott Boras, are meeting Thursday in Phoenix to present their cases to a three-person panel of arbiters. The subject is whether Ankiel’s 2009 salary should be $2.35 million or $3.3 million.

Expect the decision to be made public on Friday. To this point, the players and clubs are 1-1 this winter, with Tampa Bay defeating catcher Dioner Navarro while pitcher Shawn Hill won his case against the Washington Nationals.

Cards outfielder Ryan Ludwick’s hearing is this coming Tuesday, the 17th.

Update: The Post-Dispatch identified local attorney Hal Wellford as the individual assisting Assistant GM John Abbamondi in presenting the Cardinals case. Here is a link to Wellford’s resume.


Three more spring invites

The Cards have invited three more pitchers to their big league camp, according to Dustin Mattison at Whiteyball.com. Left-handers Brad Furnish and Katsuhiko Maekawa plus right-hander Shaun Garceau get to experience the excitement of their first major league spring training with the Cardinals, but shouldn’t plan on staying long.

Garceau and Furnish will be Rule 5-eligible this winter if not added to the 40-man roster. With so many in a similar situation, that is far from assured. The Japanese native Maekawa is a recent signee with a checkered past, both on and off the field.


Venezuelan winter update

Over at Cardinals Best News Links, Josh Jones is continuing his Cardinals winter league recaps with the prospects that competed in Venezuelan League this winter.


Bo Hart for Valentine’s Day

Two Bo Hart references here in as many days. Let’s get camp underway!

In a February 14-themed feature, a Chicago writer recapped the former Cardinals second baseman’s 2008 season in independent ball.


2008 season summary video

MLB.com has posted a free three-and-a-half minute video summary of the 2008 Cardinals season. It is worth a quick watch as a refresher, though of course, the negatives are glossed over as having been injury-driven.

Cardinals spring training second base failures


As usual, Derrick Goold did a fine job over on his Bird Land blog reviewing the rapidly-spinning revolving door at second base for the Cardinals during the regular season in recent years.

Since I was working on a similar piece but was beat to the punch by Derrick, I am going to take an alternate angle on the subject. My focus is second basemen tried in spring training during the last half-dozen years who crashed and burned instead of making the major league club.

I believe this is most topical, given the large quantity and unproven quality of the players competing for the newly-opened second base job.

The public contenders include Brendan Ryan, Brian Barden, Joe Thurston, Jarrett Hoffpauir and Tyler Greene, not to mention the guy getting all the ink, outfielder Skip Schumaker, who will be the most-watched player in camp as he attempts to play second base for the very first time. As if there wasn’t enough pressure on Skip before, the Monday release of Adam Kennedy just turned up the burners substantially.

I bring up the past here in an attempt to at least give pause to those who advocate the Cardinals bringing in a tired, out-of-work second baseman to compete with the younger players for the job. Recent results indicate over-30 retreads auditioned just haven’t cut it.

Following are six players tried over the last four springs, none of whom ever made it far enough to claim a spot on Goold’s long list of regular-season second basemen. Most all of these players were primarily second sackers, though all could call the position home.

One was cut by the conclusion of camp, while most toiled in Memphis for at least part of the subsequent season. Again, their common thread other than terrible spring training results (collective .169 batting average) was that none of the 2005 through 2008 players listed below reached St. Louis during the regular season.

Spring Player Roster Age Errors BA ABs Team ABs Disposition
2008 D’Angelo Jimenez NRI 30 3 0.237 38 38 Memphis
2007 Jolbert Cabrera NRI 34 4 0.151 53 53 Memphis
2006 Junior Spivey 40-man 31 5 0.147 68 109 Memphis
Deivi Cruz 40-man 33 0 0.146 41 Released
2005 Mike Bell NRI 30 0 0.000 8 16 Memphis
Wilton Guerrero NRI 30 0 0.125 8 Memphis
2004 Bo Hart 40-man 27 3 0.206 68 68 Memphis
Average 31 0.169 57

In addition, I listed a seventh player, 2004 flameout Bodhi Hart. I will blame that on Goold. As he noted in one of those terrible flashbacks, that spring was a time when Hart was being encouraged to switch-hit. It was a last-straw attempt to recapture the 2003 Bo-Mania that had long since worn off.

The reality had set in that Bo wasn’t able to handle the off-speed pitch and as such, wasn’t really major league material. Still, Cardinals fans used to rooting for scrappy, underdog second basemen (Stubby Clapp, anyone?) had snapped up number 31 jerseys like hotcakes during the magical summer (for Hart, at least) of 2003.

Though it was his best chance in 2004, Hart not only did not make the club that spring, in fact he actually never made an opening day Cardinals roster in his short career. That season, he was recalled from Memphis on April 11, but by the end of the month was optioned out, never to be seen again in the majors.

Because of that, I will point out that technically, Hart should not be on this list due to his MLB swan song, those final 13 major-league at-bats in April, 2004 before he drifted off into baseball obscurity.

Still, Hart’s mention here makes sense to me in the context of observing the wasting of spring at-bats on players heading nowhere. Over the last five years, the Cardinals have burned up on the average 57 at-bats per spring on this bunch.

Here in 2009 with the especially large number of unproven players in the competition needing as many looks as possible, I hope we don’t witness the likes of another Junior Spivey (pictured) on the fields of Jupiter anytime soon. I also hope real prospects can see the bulk of the 2009 regular-season action in Memphis instead of more members of the over-30 gang soaking up time and space.

If the spring second base experiments all fail, there will still be time and opportunity at the end of camp to take corrective action if necessary. Unless a true proven MLB second baseman is brought in to St. Louis in the interim, which seems unlikely at this point based on GM John Mozeliak’s current remarks, I say, “Let the kids play”.

Breaking down Cardinals September call-ups


In comments following a recent post about first-year players and rookies, we had a hearty discussion about September call-ups by the St. Louis Cardinals.

A couple of questions were posed:

1) Are the Cardinals calling up fewer players for the final month than in previous years?

2) Is the mix between prospects and veteran call-ups changing?

In order to answer this, I had to reconstruct the rosters and September transactions in recent years. With the data available to me, I could only do this in a manner in which I was satisfied back the past five years, from 2004 through 2008.

I made a quick best-effort call on which players should be labeled prospects and which were called veterans. In most cases, it was straightforward, but for some, it was a bit gray. For example, players like Brad Thompson and Brendan Ryan moved to the veteran column after they had served at least parts of several years in the majors.

To answer question number one, in terms of raw numbers, the data shows the club is actually calling up more players in recent years than in the past.

Callups Pitcher Hitter Prospect Veteran
2008 9 4 5 4 5
2007 8 4 4 4 4
2006 8 4 4 5 3
2005 7 4 3 6 1
2004 5 4 1 2 3
avg. 7.4 4.0 3.4 4.2 3.2
pct. 54% 46% 57% 43%

In the most three recent years, the eight, eight and nine call-ups respectively made are all above the five-year average of 7.4. The number of pitchers has been exactly same each year at four.

Position players, aka “Hitters”, show the greatest fluctuation, with a year (2004) with as few as one, while the 2008 mark of five was the highest during this period. Last September also marked the only year in which there were more hitters called up than pitchers. Though I did not study disabled list data, the latter could be at least partially due to the high number of late-season injuries encountered in 2008, primarily in the outfield.

Moving to the right, one can see that average mix of prospects and veterans is approaching 60-40. Yet in the most recent two seasons, 2007 and 2008, the levels of veteran call-ups, at four and five respectively, represent the high-water mark of this period and a continuation of a four-year upward trend.

This latter point surprised me a bit. I had expected that with an improving farm system we would see more prospects and fewer veterans, but that hasn’t been happening.

Here are the detailed names of the 2004-2008 Cardinals September call-ups, broken out between prospects and veterans:

Pitching prospect Hitting prospect Pitching veteran Hitting veteran
2008 Josh Kinney Nick Stavinoha Randy Flores Josh Phelps
Jason Motte Brian Barden Kelvin Jimenez Brendan Ryan
Mark Johnson
2007 Andy Cavazos Skip Schumaker Brian Falkenborg Miguel Cairo
Kelvin Jimenez Brian Barden Brad Thompson Kelly Stinnett
2006 Anthony Reyes Skip Schumaker Brad Thompson John Rodriguez
Chris Narveson John Nelson Mike Rose
Josh Kinney
2005 Anthony Reyes Skip Schumaker Randy Flores
Adam Wainwright John Gall
Tyler Johnson Chris Duncan
2004 Dan Haren Randy Flores Cody McKay
Carmen Cali Al Reyes

In summary, here are my conclusions:

1) No, the Cardinals are trending up in recent years in terms of raw numbers of September call-ups.

2) Yes, the prospect-veteran mix has changed over the last two years – in favor of the vets.

Yet I don’t necessarily see the latter continuing. The prospect pipeline is filling as fewer minor league free agent journeyman signings seem to be needed at the highest levels of the system.

Of course, we’ll have to see how this plays out in 2009 and beyond. Bringing us back fill circle, I would expect to see the prospect content increasing as the number of players that need Rule 5 protection grows.

Skip Schumaker (pictured) holds the recent record for consecutive last-month calls with three (2005 2006, 2007), tied by reliever Randy Flores in non-contiguous years (2004, 2005 and 2008).

Added to the 40-man

Another factor, albeit a much lesser one, concerns how many of the September call-ups were not already on the 40-man roster. Some may have not yet have been required to be added because of their relative baseball youth while others were once on the 40-man in St. Louis or elsewhere, but later removed, only to be re-added here.

One such example of the latter in 2008 was infielder Brian Barden, outrighted by the Cardinals last March and re-added to the 40-man when called up last September.

In terms of numbers, the Cardinals typically added one pitcher and two position players each September. Of course, these players can be removed just as quickly as they were added, as happened with Josh Phelps and Mark Johnson at the conclusion of the 2008 season and a number of others in previous years.

Callups Pitcher Hitter + 40 man Pitcher Hitter
2008 9 4 5 3 0 3
2007 8 4 4 3 1 2
2006 8 4 4 2 0 2
2005 7 4 3 2 1 1
2004 5 4 1 3 3 0
avg. 7.4 4 3.4 2.6 1 1.6

Now, here are the players’ names that go behind the numbers. Looking at those in recent years indicates this approach is rarely used for legitimate prospects, signaling those called up were likely previously added to the 40-man roster prior to the final month of the season.

With the large number of Rule 5-eligible players coming this fall, it will be interesting to see if this pattern is broken.

Pitchers Pitchers added to 40-man Hitters Hitters added to 40-man
2008 Randy Flores Nick Stavinoha Josh Phelps
Jason Motte Brendan Ryan Brian Barden
Kelvin Jimenez Mark Johnson
Josh Kinney
2007 Andy Cavazos Brian Falkenborg Skip Schumaker Miguel Cairo
Kelvin Jimenez Brian Barden Kelly Stinnett
Brad Thompson
2006 Brad Thompson John Rodriguez Mike Rose
Anthony Reyes Skip Schumaker John Nelson
Chris Narveson
Josh Kinney
2005 Anthony Reyes Tyler Johnson Skip Schumaker Chris Duncan
Adam Wainwright John Gall
Randy Flores
2004 Dan Haren Randy Flores Cody McKay
Carmen Cali
Al Reyes

The passed over

Taking this one step farther, for the final view, we will take a look at the players on the 40-man roster each of the years of 2004 through 2008 who did NOT receive a call up. Sometimes you might have seen these players listed in transaction logs at the end of the season noted as “recalled, not to report”.

The yearly totals varied from as few as four to as many as eight, averaging six, roughly four pitchers and two position players.

Callups Pitcher Hitter Non call Pitcher Hitter
2008 9 4 5 6 5 1
2007 8 4 4 4 2 2
2006 8 4 4 6 2 4
2005 7 4 3 6 4 2
2004 5 4 1 8 6 2
avg. 7.4 4 3.4 6 3.8 2.2

In almost every case, the names are that of prospects apparently deemed not ready or perhaps had already pitched enough innings. In 2008, both Jaime Garcia and Mike Parisi were injured, but remember the constant number of four yearly pitching promotions. As a result, I submit that had Garcia and Parisi been available and gotten the call, a pair of other pitchers simply would have joined this list of passed-over players instead of them.

Pitchers 40-man no promo Hitters 40-man no promo
2008 Mitchell Boggs Jarrett Hoffpauir
Jaime Garcia
Mark Worrell
Mike Parisi
Blake Hawksworth
2007 Dennis Dove John Rodriguez
Blake Hawksworth Cody Haerther
2006 Carmen Cali Michel Hernandez
Brian Falkenborg Brendan Ryan
Travis Hanson
Reid Gorecki
2005 Carmen Cali Bo Hart
Chris Narveson Reid Gorecki
Rhett Parrott
Evan Rust
2004 Jason Simontacchi John Gall
Jim Journell Bo Hart
Rhett Parrott
Josh Pearce
Evan Rust
Adam Wainwright

Many names appeared on this list twice, but no player lasted long enough to be passed over for a September call-up three times. With a current two-year streak and counting, Blake Hawksworth should definitely sit up and take notice.

Cardinals first-year players and rookies – 2009 forecast


Earlier, in the first article of this series, I broke down the 11 first-year players that debuted with the 2008 St. Louis Cardinals. In part two, I reviewed past first-year players and rookies each season during the La Russa years, designating whether or not the player exhausted his rookie qualification that season.

Here in part three, I look forward to 2009, considering which St. Louis Cardinals minor league players may debut along with the subset that may stay up long enough to exhaust their rookie qualification.

In contrast to parts one and two, which reported fact – what happened in the past – this article is based on my personal assessments. By definition, some of you are going to see it differently. That’s ok; just sound off below.

Just remember that the scope of this article is the entire 2009 season, not the opening day roster. My annual forecast of how I see that shaking out will be a separate piece.

As another reminder, here are the rookie qualification guidelines: More than 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues, or more than 45 days on the Major League active roster during April-August, excluding time on the disabled list.

The other first-year players that are projected to fall short of rookie qualification are noted as such, “Cup of java”.

There is another set of important considerations – those players that must be protected by November by being added to the 40-man roster or risk being lost in the December Rule 5 Draft.

As a refresher, here are the 11 first-year players and rookie qualifiers from 2008.

Pitchers Tot # Met rookie # Cup of java Hitters Tot # Met rookie # Cup of java
2008 7 2 Chris Perez 5 Mike Parisi 2008 4 2 Brian Barton 2 Nick Stavinoha
Kyle McClellan Mark Worrell Joe Mather Rico Washington
Mitchell Boggs
Jaime Garcia
Jason Motte

Let’s go around the diamond by position as we consider 2009.

Catcher

Bryan Anderson should make his major league debut during the 2009 season, but unless either Yadier Molina or backup Jason LaRue spend time on the disabled list, Anderson’s call up may not occur until September when rosters expand. Anderson would become Rule 5 eligible if not protected.

Catcher # Meet rookie qual Cup of java
1 none Bryan Anderson

* already on 40-man

italics: not on 40-man

First base

Not only is there not a first baseman high in the system threatening to break into the bigs, the Cardinals already have two qualified reserve first basemen on the roster in Joe Mather and Chris Duncan. Nothing to see here. Move along, folks…

Second base

Minor league non-roster invitee Joe Thurston has a chance to make the Cardinals coming out of spring camp and if not, still could see 150 at-bats at some point this season as an interim fix if injury strikes one of the players in St. Louis. Assuming a major DL stint somewhere seems most reasonable and I am guessing that up the middle will be such a place.

Not having ever seen Thurston play, I am basing my push of him to the front of the line primarily due to Jose Oquendo’s support and the shakiness of the current Adam Kennedy – Brendan Ryan combo.

Still, I would be far more optimistic about Thurston if he only batted right-handed, as we all know how well La Russa likes his match ups. Neither Kennedy (.596 OPS vs. LHP in 2008) nor Schumaker (.423 OPS vs. LHP in 2008 – not a typo!) can hit lefties worth a lick.

Thurston backers point out that at least in the minors last season, his OPS against lefties and righties were basically the same (.831 vs. .832) solid nums. While that is true, his 2008 seems an outlier, as the 29-year-old hasn’t been nearly as good against left-handed pitching in past years.

Thurston’s Triple-A splits

OPS vs. LHP vs. RHP
2008 0.831 0.832
2007 0.706 0.841
2006 0.675 0.831
2005 0.648 0.732

I don’t see Thurston as a long-term answer, but may serve as an ok 2009 fill-in if needed. It is worth noting that if necessary, Thurston can be removed from the 40-man at the conclusion of the season to make room for a prospect needing protection. (Update: As DD17, reminded me below, though Thurston would make his Cards debut in 2009, he has had several cups of coffee in the past with the Dodgers, Phillies and Red Sox.)

Jarrett Hoffpauir has been on the 40-man roster for over a year now, but hasn’t sniffed the majors. He seems closer to being removed from the roster than making his MLB debut.

Until proven otherwise, I will also continue to question the successful conclusion of Skip Schumaker’s attempt to execute a mid-career transition to second base. He played a little shortstop in a college career that ended eight years ago and has never been at second – until now.

Shortstop

What Brian Barden needs is an injury to starter Khalil Greene or to beat out current reserve Brendan Ryan to get a chance beyond a third straight September call-up. This seems another place to expect some DL time, though it is hoped Khalil won’t be punching any more storage cabinets in frustration.

Since Barden is not a first-year player, he isn’t the focus of his piece, yet he and Ryan have a direct an impact on the others. There is another factor to consider in that Ryan is out of minor league options, but Barden still has one remaining. If for some reason, the Cardinals wanted to open 40-man space by dropping Barden instead of optioning him out, I suspect he could clear waivers if necessary.

I will forecast a September call up for former first-rounder Tyler Greene, as dependent as anything on his ability to put together a solid season with the bat as well as continue to work defensively at third, short and second. Greene seems aligned to replace Ryan when ready and like Barden, is already on the 40-man.

SS # Meet rookie qual Cup of java
1 none Tyler Greene*

Third base

Much has been written about this position already. With Troy Glaus’ season-opening injury, David Freese seems poised to become the interim starter. If he wins the competition, he could reach his 150 at-bats relatively quickly. Joe Mather should be a reserve only.

I do see Brett Wallace most capable of playing well enough this season to warrant at least a September call-up. However as I noted in the Rule 5 article, there are also valid roster reasons to delay Wallace’s arrival in St. Louis until 2010. To beat that, he will not only have to play well, but will need a break or two as he got in 2008. If Freese stubs his toe, an earlier arrival in St. Louis by Wallace is not as unlikely as it once seemed.

3B # Meet rookie qual Cup of java
2 David Freese Brett Wallace

Outfield

I imagine that by now, we all know the current roster configuration makes finding room for top prospect Colby Rasmus (pictured) difficult, but not impossible. Without a trade or injury, his chances of making the team out of spring training still seem less than 50%, in my opinion here today on February 9.

Yet the players have not even taken the field in camp and a lot could change very quickly. Something will happen soon enough such that we should see Rasmus in St. Louis long before the summer is out. It could be a trade, it could be an injury to another, but I just do not see the door for Rasmus remaining closed all season.

I wanted to put Jon Jay on the cup of coffee list because I have a feeling that he is going to emerge this coming season. He has already been invited to big league camp and with a solid, injury-free season in Memphis, could at least receive a courtesy call-up for the final month. One small downside is that seemingly like every other outfielder, Jay hits left-handed. Like Rasmus, Jay will require Rule 5 protection by November, helping his case. A trade involving outfielders up the pecking order could further improve Jay’s chances, or maybe he is one sent packing.

OF # Meet rookie qual Cup of java
2 Colby Rasmus Jon Jay

Starting pitcher

As odd as it may seem, for now I am forecasting no new first-year starting pitcher debuts during 2009, despite 2008 call-ups Mike Parisi and Jaime Garcia being sidelined effectively all year.

If the club does bring in an experienced starting pitcher this spring, this already-tight position will get even tighter. Sorry to P.J. Walters and the others chomping at the bit, but I see some combination of Mitchell Boggs and Kyle McClellan as being the most obvious starters in reserve. Obviously, neither of them are roster first-timers.

Then we have Brad Thompson, Joel Pineiro and “the new guy”, who will all need homes, but all can’t fit on the current roster. I can’t bring myself to actually forecast another extended outage for Chris Carpenter, as much as I fear it.

Check the earlier Rule 5 article for a detailed explanation why I think top prospects Jess Todd and Clayton Mortensen making their 2009 debuts is a long shot no matter how well they pitch in Memphis. Yes, there is always a chance one could force his way up with a spectacular season, but I feel it would either take that or a devastating run of injuries in St. Louis or more likely, both.

Relief pitcher

Here is another position that is clearly stacked with different piece-part options. However, Josh Kinney remains an injury risk and Jason Motte and even Chris Perez could find themselves heading back down I-55 to Memphis if they struggle with their secondary pitches.

Fernando Salas and Francisco Samuel represent a pair of emerging right-handed alternatives. Salas is currently ahead on paper, having been the 2008 Springfield closer, while Samuel was the ninth-inning man for Palm Beach but is considered the better prospect. Each scored a spring training non-roster invite, but Samuel is heading toward Rule 5 exposure this winter. Since both have such a long way to go, neither should be a factor to start the season. Still I can see Samuel at least getting a late-season look.

An unheralded candidate that may make his debut in 2009 is Memphis’ Matt Scherer, already added to the 40-man roster last fall. I think Scherer could come up sooner, with Samuel as a September possibility. I also think at some point during the summer, Mike Sillman may get at least a short look-see, especially if injuries strike.

From the left side, free agent signee Ian Ostlund has a shot, even in spring training. With three lefties already on the 40-man roster though, Ostlund will need help even if he pitches well in March. I can see him getting to St. Louis during the summer but fall short of 50 innings and 45 days like the other first-time relievers.

RP # Meet rookie qual Cup of java
4 none Matt Scherer*
Francisco Samuel
Mike Sillman
Ian Ostlund
total 10 2 8

Summary

Though I honestly did not plan it this way, note that my expected total of 10 first-year players is very close to what actually ensued during the 2008 season. My forecast of two being up long enough to exhaust their rookie eligibility is two off last year’s La Russa-era high-water mark.

While this is an aggressive number of players, my biggest concern is represented by the eight names noted in italics. Of the 10, only Scherer and Greene are on the 40-man today. For this scenario to play out, the Cardinals would need to add the other eight new players to the 40-man roster, which currently sits at 35.

Some space can be made by transferring players in-season to the 60-day disabled list, which does not count against the 40-man limit. Even if so, other players may find themselves removed from the roster during the season. Candidate names that immediately come to mind are Blake Hawksworth, Hoffpauir and Nick Stavinoha.

In the meantime, I will be closely watching spring training battles and regular season action to assess how accurate this forecast might actually become.

Cardinals minor matters – February 8


Not counting anyone out

The other day, I gave a nod to Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle as the result of an article he wrote for the Sporting News in which he advised not to count out the 2009 Cardinals. I did that, overlooking his fearless prediction that “The Cardinals might win 90 games or lose 90.” Way to stick your neck out, Richard.

I spoke too soon as Justice is apparently writing a series of similar articles, just substituting the team name. His latest: “Don’t count Astros out in spring training”. This despite the fact he clearly stated that Houston “gotten worse” this season in the earlier article.

Let’s see. Worse than third place means what? Contention? Guess he has to appease the hometown readers.

It is certainly the right time of year to accurately suggest that no team is out of it. Keeps all the bases well-covered that way, I imagine. I am guessing Justice is having a big stack of waffles for breakfast this Sunday morning.


Caribbean Series ends

Congratulations to the Aragua Tigres of Venezuela for winning the 2009 Caribbean Series with a 5-1 record. The Mexican club, the Mazatlan Venados, finished in second at 3-3.

The Tigres actually clinched with a victory over Mexico on Friday, making Saturday’s game meaningless. Venezuela’s Brad Knox, a free agent formerly from the Oakland system, got the Saturday nod. Knox, a starter I mentioned over on Scout.com on Friday (subscription required), was hammered for eight runs in just 2 2/3 innings. He had tossed a no-hitter for 6 1/3 innings his first time out.

The main pitcher I profiled there, Edgar Gonzalez, previously a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks, is rumored to be close to signing with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Too bad if that happens, as he would have been an intriguing add for the Cardinals.


Cards Mexican Pacific League recap

Also make sure you hop on over to Cardinals Best News Links to check out Josh Jones’ summaries of winter league action by Cardinals players past and present. Just posted was a recap of the Mexican Pacific League season.


Wolf signs with Dodgers

Arguably the top left-hander on the market, Randy Wolf, signed a one-year, $5 million deal with Joe Torre’s Los Angeles Dodgers. That was very bad news for still-free agent Braden Looper, widely considered to have been the Dodgers’ second choice.

Looper seems destined to be a second choice kind of guy. Most Cardinals observers would admit that the difference between Looper, who was sent packing, and Kyle Lohse, who was offered four years and $41 million to stay, was not that huge.

Now, it is Looper who will likely have to accept a circa 2008 Lohse-ian deal someplace. (Lohse did not have a home this time last year, signing a cut-rate one-year contract with a base of $4.25 million with the Cardinals in mid-March.)

Not that the Cardinals were serious suitors, but one part of me is relieved that Wolf did not sign with St. Louis. I don’t think I could survive an entire season listening to Hungo pronounce the pitcher’s name as “woof”.


Torre and A-Fraud

Speaking of Torre, the timing of the release of his new book, “The Yankee Years”, last Tuesday was impeccable. All week, the furor was at a fever pitch over Torre supposedly savaging his old club, while the grandfatherly skipper hit the talk show circuit carefully explaining his intent. A great way to sell books. One controversial reference was to “A-Fraud”, though not necessarily attributed as a direct Torre quote.

Seems the A-Rod steroid allegations have knocked any lingering rage at Torre off the back page of the New York tabloids while reinforcing the unfortunate nickname of the embattled third baseman.


MLB Network – the other side

One of the places where Torre was most visible was the fledgling MLB Network. His co-author of the book, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, already works there. A great way to sell books. Hmmm.

Yet, the most visible face there has instantly become Bob Costas, who left behind his cable deal with HBO to move over to the MLB Network, also just last week. His first interviews were with Torre and Verducci.

Costas, who has become sports’ answer to Dick Clark, America’s oldest teenager, does have a reputation that enables him to ask at least marginally tough questions, something that is badly needed at MLB Network.

While I like their programming, their four-person roundtables are terribly boring, with four yes-people all agreeing on how good such-and-such signing was. In all fairness, they can hardly be critical of teams and of MLB while ripping their bosses in the process. I guess it was unrealistic to hope the Network would be any more hard-hitting in their coverage than MLB.com, the flagship mouthpiece for the empire.

It must be frustrating for the writers and broadcasters, who are likely intelligent, opinionated people, to be unable to fully speak their minds. Heck, when MLB employees blog, they do it via a company-run blog site. How independent can that be? Big brother is always watching.

It is clearly high-stakes big business for MLB. I wonder if there will be editorial pressure to downplay the new A-Rod steroids scandal on MLB Network. I surely hope not, but have to wonder. Biting the hand that feeds you rarely turns out well.


Cookie WHIPped

Speaking of MLB Network, I spent much of my evenings last week watching the Caribbean Series there. One of the rotating color men used daily was former MLB player and manager Cookie Rojas.

He is clearly old school. When an ESPN graphic popped up the Venezuelan club’s ERA and WHIP, Cookie explained WHIP as hitting with runners in scoring position. Ouch!


Old school, new school contention remains

Since it is time for the fresh start of the new season, a logical column for the Post-Dispatch’s Joe Strauss to write is the annual “Tony La Russa is re-energized” tome.

Buried in it was La Russa’s not-so-subtle reminder that he is still not totally in synch with the new wave Cardinals organization.

“I believe analysis from a computer is useful but should be secondary to what you observe. That may not be the opinion of the people in charge,” La Russa told Strauss.

It’s not a news flash, as La Russa has made similar comments in the past, but it is discouraging to see the organizational tension remains at a level such that the manager feels the ongoing need to discuss it publicly.


Congrats to Worrell

Former Cardinals reliever Todd Worrell (pictured) was among the 14 inductees into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame on Saturday night in Springfield.

The now-49-year-old was a standout as a closer and set-up man for the Cardinals from 1985 through 1992 and has given back as a former player. An excellent choice.



DiFelice retires

Former Cardinals catcher Mike DiFelice (1996-97, 2002) has retired as an active player to manage the Mets’ rookie team in Kingsport, TN. The K-Mets are an Appalachian League adversary of the Johnson City Cardinals.

The 39-year-old DiFelice spent most of 2008 in Triple-A but did get a final cup of coffee (with dessert?) with the AL champion Tampa Bay Devil Rays. He did not appear in the post-season.


Lefty swapping

The same article linked to above notes the Rays are signing Brian Shouse, apparently to replace now-Cardinal Trever Miller for the left side of their pen. It will be interesting to see which club turns out to have made the best decision. To say I am nervous about the Cardinals’ 2009 relief lefties is an understatement.


First arbitration case decided

Washington Nationals starting pitcher Shawn Hill won his salary arbitration case and will receive $775,000, instead of the $500,000 the team was offering. For the Cardinals, Rick Ankiel is up first, this coming Thursday, with Ryan Ludwick scheduled the Tuesday following, on the 17th.


Gorgen shoulder surgery good news

On Saturday, I had a long phone conversation with right-handed pitching prospect Scott Gorgen. He has a most interesting story about the evolution of his shoulder discomfort through surgery last week. The news is good – out eight weeks instead of the entire season. It is subscriber-only content, but worth the listen if you are a member.

Remember that you’ll continue to see several feature articles each week from me at Scout.com, so make sure you check there regularly, too.


Cubs lead Cards in Koreans, 4-1

Recently, MLB.com ran a feature about the Chicago Cubs’ increase in worldwide scouting, noting the club has invited three young Korean prospects to minor league camp along with another player from that country that was also under contract last season.

The Cardinals signed a Korean of their own last week, Hyang-Nam Choi, assigned to Memphis and also heading to minor league spring training. The 37-year-old cannot be considered a youth any more, however.

Last spring, the Cards had another Korean pitcher in minor league camp, Jai Chul Chung. The then-25 year old stayed around into extended spring training, but did not make a team.

A-Rod: So Sad


What is that old line? A rising tide lifts all boats?

Perhaps the opposite is happening with Saturday’s disclosure by two Sports Illustrated writers that then-Texas Rangers slugger Alex Rodriguez tested positive for steroids use in 2003.

For ex-St. Louis Cardinals first-baseman Mark McGwire, refusal to talk about the past may have been incriminating all right, but far less so than formal test results, if the SI report is true. Now, another prominent name may be sitting next to him in the ever-expanding baseball writers’ penalty box.

This disclosure makes me sad for several reasons:

1)    As I understand it, the 2003 testing was to be anonymous and confidential. While I am not defending A-Rod in any way, even suspected juicers have rights and his were violated.

2)    We know 104 players were tested and failed. That means there are at least 103 other supposed guilty players in the report. Yet, only the name of the biggest, juiciest juicer is leaked. It is a sad indication of the ambulance-chasing society we have become.

3)    Accusations that Players Union COO Gene Orza tipped off A-Rod that a test was coming. The baseball culture is one of extreme sticking together, but there is no way to defend behavior that allegedly includes being an accomplice.

4)    Yet Orza is likely just one big name of dozens, probably hundreds that could be fingered. Like A-Rod, he has a big name to knock down.

5)    This further besmirches the already-tarnished image of a game that looked the other way for too long.

Yet Rodriguez has the chance to be bold where McGwire was timid. Much ink is already being spilled about how this disclosure will taint his pursuit of the all-time home run crown as well as scuttle what seemed a lock induction into the Hall of Fame.

A-Rod needs to learn from his former teammate Jason Giambi and fess up to past mistakes and try to let it pass. McGwire has proven the stigma will not go away even if ignored, and he was already retired when he bungled his House testimony, not an active player in New York, of all places.

Giambi, unlike Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens apparently did, did not lie and as a result, paid a small price compared to the other two. A-Rod has already disappointed so many. He needs to nip this in the bud.

With an apology, the self-righteous sportwriters that have drawn a line in the sand will be pulled one step closer to taking a middle ground position regarding an issue that simply cannot be treated as black or white any longer.

I hope Big Mac is watching.

Cardinals arbitration history – 1974-2008


As I noted earlier in the week, the St. Louis Cardinals are heading toward arbitration hearings with Rick Ankiel (February 12) and Ryan Ludwick (February 17) to settle on one-year salary amounts for each player for the 2009 season.

I thought it would be interesting to look at the club’s arbitration record since the process began. While most who watch this area may be familiar with the fact that the club last went to hearing in 1999, when they defeated pitcher Darren Oliver and his agent Scott Boras, the Cardinals’ history in arbitration goes back much farther.

Fortunately, the late Doug Pappas, long-time chairman of SABR’s Business of Baseball Committee, kept detailed hearing records all the way back to 1974. The basics of what follows is sourced from his work.

Since the process began, there have been almost 500 arbitration hearings across MLB. Of course, many more players filed, but came to terms prior to the actual date. As one of 30 clubs now (though there were fewer teams back in 1974) one might expect the Cardinals to have had no more than about 3% of the cases. That is the approximate actual number, 15. The club’s record against players is very close to the overall MLB historical mark, around 60%.

Through 2008 Hearings Club win Player win % club win
MLB 484 279 205 58%
Cardinals 15 9 6 60%
StL percent of MLB 3.1% 3.2% 2.9%

However, most of these Cardinals cases were held during the 1980s, nine of the 15 to be precise. Five more followed in the 1990s, but four of them occurred prior to 1995. Since then, there has been just one, Oliver.

Cardinals cases Hearings Club win Player win % club win
1970’s 1 0 1 0%
1980’s 9 6 3 67%
1990’s 5 3 2 60%
2000’s 0 0 0 NA

Gregg Jefferies: Last to beat the Cards in arbitration (Getty Images/Stephen Dunn)
Gregg Jefferies: Last to beat the Cards in arbitration (Getty Images/Stephen Dunn)

Ironically, the busiest year for the club was at the end of the boom. In 1994, three players went to arbitration, with the club going 2-1. They lost to first baseman Gregg Jefferies (pictured) and defeated starter Bob Tewksbury and third baseman Todd Zeile. As a result, Jefferies holds the distinction of having been the last player to defeat the Cardinals in a hearing.

And here we sit today, with two players heading toward a showdown with the club over their 2009 salary amounts. The Cardinals could double their total number of hearings in the last 15 years over the span of just six days later this month.

Below are the detailed hearing results, offering a most interesting view of how salaries have risen over the years.

As you will see, some of the most prominent stars of the club during the 1980s and early 1990’s participated in the process – Ozzie Smith, Danny Cox, Jose Oquendo, Vince Coleman and Terry Pendleton among them.

Having just returned to the Cards from the Mets in the Joe Torre trade, pitcher Ray Sadecki was the first-ever case for the club back in 1975. On one hand, the difference between the two sides was just $5,000. On the other hand, it was about 10% of the player’s salary – an amount worth fighting for. The left-hander was traded to Atlanta just three months after winning his case.

In the table, I added to Pappas’ base data the date when each player last suited up for the Cardinals and how he left. There were rumors that some owners did not take kindly to players fighting them over salary. If only the arbitration process had existed in 1972, another lefty, Steve Carlton, might have become a Hall of Famer as a Cardinal instead of as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies.

I include that information not because there is any proven correlation between an arbitration case and the player leaving St. Louis.

Yet do pay special attention to the timing of trade activity, especially in the early years of arbitration. Four of the first five players that took the Cardinals to arbitration didn’t even last through that season before having to pack their bags. Later, the players exerted their financial independence via free agency.

Even as trade rumors swirled around both Ludwick and Ankiel this winter, this data is offered as an interesting conversation piece about which to speculate over what might have been.

Year Player* Club* Club win Player win % club win Left StL Reason
1975 Ray Sadecki 52 47 X May-75 traded
1980 Will McEnaney 125 65 X Mar-80 released
1981 Tony Scott 225 180 X Jun-81 traded
1982 Ozzie Smith 750 450 X Sep-96 retired
1983 Doug Bair 450 325 X Jun-83 traded
1983 Lonnie Smith 580 500 X May-85 traded
1986 Ricky Horton 275 215 X Feb-88 traded
1987 Danny Cox 875 600 X Oct-90 free agent
1988 Jose Oquendo 360 275 X Sep-95 retired
1989 Vince Coleman 950 775 X Nov-90 free agent
1990 Terry Pendleton 1850 1000 X Nov-90 free agent
1994 Gregg Jefferies 4600 3700 X Oct-94 free agent
1994 Bob Tewksbury 4500 3500 X Oct-94 free agent
1994 Todd Zeile 3250 2700 X Jun-95 traded
1999 Darren Oliver 4150 3550 X Oct-99 free agent
total 9 6 60%
2009 Rick Ankiel 3300 2350
2009 Ryan Ludwick 4250 2800
* amounts in $K

February 2013 update: “Can Freese learn from the Cardinals’ 2009 arbitration cases?”

Cardinals first-year players and rookies – 1996-2008


In late December in the first article of this series, I broke down the 11 first-year players that debuted with the 2008 St. Louis Cardinals. In the final section, part three, I will look forward to 2009.

Here in part two, I will review past first-year players and rookies each season during the Tony La Russa years. One addition from last time is a designation of whether or not the player exhausted his rookie qualification that season. That separates the cup of coffee guys from those that stuck around long enough to probably contribute.

As a reminder, here are the rookie qualification guidelines: More than 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues, or more than 45 days on the Major League active roster during April-August, excluding time on the disabled list.

Among last year’s rookies, four – Brian Barton, Joe Mather, Kyle McClellan and Chris Perez (pictured) – met one or more of the guidelines.

The table that follows summarizes the first-year player introductions by the Cardinals over the last 13 years. To the left is the total number of first-year players, then with pitchers broken out between those that were up long enough to exhaust their rookie eligibility during their initial season and those that did not, labeled cup of coffee players, or “Cup of java”.

Debuts Met rookie qual Pitchers Met rookie Cup of java Hitters Met rookie Cup of java
2008 11 4 7 2 5 4 2 2
2007 6 2 4 1 3 2 1 1
2006 4 1 3 1 2 1 0 1
2005 6 2 3 1 2 3 1 2
2004 3 2 1 0 1 2 2 0
2003 5 3 4 2 2 1 1 0
2002 6 2 5 2 3 1 0 1
2001 6 2 3 1 2 3 1 2
2000 8 0 5 0 5 3 0 3
1999 4 0 3 0 3 1 0 1
1998 7 1 4 1 3 3 0 3
1997 12 3 6 3 3 6 0 6
1996 5 1 2 0 2 3 1 2
total 83 23 50 14 36 33 9 24
avg 6 2 4 1 3 3 1 2
pct 28% 60% 40%

Here are some associated factoids.

On the average

  • During an average season, six rookies make their Cardinals debuts, 60% of whom are pitchers with position players making up the other 40%.
  • Only two of them stay around long enough that season to exhaust their rookie eligibility, or 28% of the total.
  • The two are made up of one pitcher and one position player, on the average.

Yearly trends

  • In La Russa’s first five years, 1996-2000, only five first-year players in total saw enough time during their initial season to use up their rookie status.
  • In the eight years since, 18 players have met the criteria.
  • In only one year did the number of first-year hitters exceed the new pitchers, 2004.
  • In only two years did the number of hitters that used up their rookie qualification exceed the number of pitchers, 1996 and 2004.

Top year

  • The 11 first-year players in 2008 was second only to 1997.
  • Four of the 11 in 2008 exhausted their rookie qualification as opposed to 1997 when only three of the 11 players did.
  • The 2008 total of four qualifiers is the highest count in the La Russa era.

Now, here’s the player detail by season.

Pitchers Tot Met rookie Cup of java Hitters Tot Met rookie Cup of java
2008 7 Chris Perez Mike Parisi 2008 4 Brian Barton Nick Stavinoha
Kyle McClellan Mark Worrell Joe Mather Rico Washington
Mitchell Boggs
Jaime Garcia
Jason Motte
Pitchers Tot Met rookie Cup of java Hitters Tot Met rookie Cup of java
2007 4 Kelvin Jimenez Dennis Dove 2007 2 Brendan Ryan Brian Esposito
Troy Cate
Andy Cavazos
Pitchers Tot Met rookie Cup of java Hitters Tot Met rookie Cup of java
2006 3 Anthony Reyes Josh Kinney 2006 1 John Nelson
Chris Narveson
Pitchers Tot Met rookie Cup of java Hitters Tot Met rookie Cup of java
2005 3 Brad Thompson Tyler Johnson 2005 3 John Rodriguez John Gall
Adam Wainwright Chris Duncan
Pitchers Tot Met rookie Cup of java Hitters Tot Met rookie Cup of java
2004 1 Carmen Cali 2004 2 Yadier Molina
Hector Luna
Pitchers Tot Met rookie Cup of java Hitters Tot Met rookie Cup of java
2003 4 Dan Haren Jim Journell 2003 1 Bo Hart
Kiko Calero Kevin Ohme
Pitchers Tot Met rookie Cup of java Hitters Tot Met rookie Cup of java
2002 5 Jason Simontacchi Josh Pearce 2002 1 So Taguchi
Mike Crudale Kevin Joseph
Matt Duff
Pitchers Tot Met rookie Cup of java Hitters Tot Met rookie Cup of java
2001 3 Bud Smith Jason Karnuth 2001 3 Albert Pujols Stubby Clapp
Chad Hutchinson Bill Ortega
Pitchers Tot Met rookie Cup of java Hitters Tot Met rookie Cup of java
2000 5 Britt Reames 2000 3 Chris Richard
Justin Brunette Keith McDonald
Jose Rodriguez Luis Saturria
Mike Matthews
Gene Stechschulte
Pitchers Tot Met rookie Cup of java Hitters Tot Met rookie Cup of java
1999 3 Rick Ankiel 1999 1 Adam Kennedy
Rick Heiserman
Curtis King
Pitchers Tot Met rookie Cup of java Hitters Tot Met rookie Cup of java
1998 4 Rich Croushore Jose Jimenez 1998 3 Joe McEwing
Cliff Politte J.D. Drew
Braden Looper Mark Little
Pitchers Tot Met rookie Cup of java Hitters Tot Met rookie Cup of java
1997 6 Manny Aybar Brady Raggio 1997 6 Eli Marrero
Rigo Beltran Sean Lowe Luis Ordaz
Matt Morris Tom McGraw Micah Franklin
Scarborough Green
Mike Gulan
Jeff Berblinger
Pitchers Tot Met rookie Cup of java Hitters Tot Met rookie Cup of java
1996 2 Mike Busby 1996 3 Miguel Mejia Dmitri Young
Eric Ludwick Aaron Holbert


Addendum: At the suggestion of DizzyDean17 in the comments below, I have broken out the cup of coffee players in the above table into two groups. The names not in bold have not reached 130 major league at bats or 50 innings pitched, so they might be considered true career cup of coffee players – at least so far. In contrast, the names in bold did reach that rookie qualification mark – over a subsequent season or seasons. This adds a career perspective beyond the original single-year view of this article.

Debuts Met rookie qualification in debut year Met rookie qualification later
2008 11 4 TBD
2007 6 2 0
2006 4 1 0
2005 6 2 3
2004 3 2 0
2003 5 3 0
2002 6 2 1
2001 6 2 0
2000 8 0 4
1999 4 0 3
1998 7 1 6
1997 12 3 4
1996 5 1 3
total 83 23 24
avg 6 2 2
pct 28% 29%

This data shows that 56% of the new players eventually earned 50 innings / 130 at-bats as major leaguers. But what I find most interesting is the concentration of players that reached the milestone after their debut year. 20 of the 24 “met rookie qualification later” players came from the first five of the La Russa years, 1996-2000.

Since 2000 however, just four players have accomplished that. The jury is still out on the 2008 cup of coffee pitchers. In other words, they still have a chance to get those necessary innings in 2009 or beyond. Most of the other cuppers from 2007 and earlier are already gone from the organization, so even if they do make it later on, it won’t help the Cardinals. Josh Kinney and Nick Stavinoha remain as 2009 possibilities.

This data seems to add support to a theory that the Cardinals are placing less emphasis on September call-ups of prospects in recent years. At least to me, the recent data seems to show that either the players come up and get significant time pretty quickly or they have their cup of coffee and fade away.

Cardinals minor matters – February 5


The Hunter is being hunted

Memphis outfielder Amaury Cazana Marti, labeled “The Hunter” during his successful summer campaign in Mexico, is competing against the country in the Caribbean Series. The 34- (or 30) year-old played winter ball for Licey in the Dominican Republic and his club is representing the nation in the Series.

Through his first four games, Marti has struggled badly, looking very anxious at the plate, often overswinging. After starting the series batting #5, he has been dropped down to the #7 spot and has just one single, one walk and six strikeouts in 16 plate appearances. His 1-for-15 mark translates to an .067 average. Defensively, the Cuban émigré has seen time at both corners.

The regular winter season was a different story. Against Dominican League pitching, the right-handed hitter posted a .314/.390/.535 line for Licey. He hit seven home runs and drove in 34 over 172 at-bats. However, Marti fanned 42 times.

While the 2006 draftee remains under Cardinals organizational control for 2009, he was not invited to major league spring camp as he was in 2008. Unless he is added to the 40-man roster by next winter, Marti will be eligible for the December 2009 Rule 5 Draft.

(Scout.com subscribers, be sure to check the site on Friday for my view of some potential starting pitching targets coming out of the Caribbean Series. “Playing a Hunch: Edgar Gonzalez to St. Louis?“)


How Larry Bigbie Became the Most Important Man in Baseball

A very, very interesting read about how a reserve Cardinals outfielder inadvertently opened up the government’s steroid investigation.


Skip at second a serious matter

MLB.com’s Matthew Leach is turning up the heat on the Skip Schumaker to second base story. He does not mention that this move does not address the left-handed splits problem, however. Neither Adam Kennedy (bad – .596 OPS last year) nor Schumaker (really terrible – .423 OPS in 2008) can hit lefties. So a platoon makes no sense.

They would never say it this way, instead pointing to 2010 potential, but the immediate benefit is all about making roster room for Colby Rasmus, while quietly exiting Skip from the starting outfield picture. I think it is incredibly optimistic to think Schumaker could become a major league starting-quality second sacker, but maybe a credible reserve level of play can be achieved.

If the experiment works, the five bench guys would seem to line up as Jason LaRue, Chris Duncan, Skip, Joe Mather and Brendan Ryan, with Rick Ankiel, Ryan Ludwick and Rasmus starting in the outfield.

That seems to be the plan as I interpret it.


Lefty to the left coast

The Seattle Mariners announced on Thursday that they have signed left-handed reliever Tyler Johnson to a minor league contract with an invitation to major league spring training camp.

The 27-year-old had been non-tendered by the Cardinals after missing all of 2008 and part of 2007 due to shoulder problems. Overall, Johnson pitched in 116 games for the Cardinals with a 3-5 record with a 4.32 ERA. He allowed 67 hits, struck out 65 and walked 42 in 77 career innings.

Johnson’s primary claim to fame was playing a major supporting role in the 2006 post-season. He fanned a dozen in just 7 1/3 playoff innings on just one earned run for a 1.23 ERA with the eventual world champs.

Cardinals “walk year” results: fact or urban legend?


The term “walk year” is commonly defined as the final season of a player’s contract prior to when he becomes free agent eligible. The view is that the player can walk away from his current team and ostensibly join a new, higher-paying one – if the results are there.

Just prior to training camp and before the very first injury is reported is the time of the year when optimism is at its peak – and when “walk years” get tossed around as a potential reason for players to improve their performance.

Reporting on a recent discussion with St. Louis Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan the other day, the Post-Dispatch’s Bernie Miklasz turned the phrase in question when referring to number five-by-a-thread starting pitcher Joel Pineiro (pictured).

“Duncan didn’t say this, but I will: remember, Pineiro is pitching for a new contract. He’s in his walk-year of a two year deal,” Miklasz offered.

After letting that sink in a bit, I went looking for some fact-or-fiction justification addressing walk years, sort of like I do whenever my brother-in-law emails me another idiotic urban legend that he thinks is real – you know, like the old yarn about earthworms in McDonalds hamburger meat.

I did find a 2003 study at ESPN, written by an author of Baseball Prospectus. Since it was a BP author after all, he couldn’t resist using their PECOTA predictions instead of actual results. To top it off, he compared players to other players instead of to themselves over a single year.

Other external factors like injury, role changes, schedule differences and Father Time are acknowledged as variables that cannot be properly accounted for, a valid point for any method used, in my opinion.

The headline of that story: ‘Hitters love the ‘walk year’. It’s conclusion:

“… this quick statistical glance does indicate that there might well be something to the motivational effect of the walk year, at least for hitters.”

Hardly conclusive, but I was amused by the most-valid point made that at its essence, hopes of walk year success is fueled by a basic belief that if only the player tried harder, he would perform better. Sort of like the old Janis Joplin tune, “Try Just a Little Bit Harder”, which ironically popped up on my satellite radio receiver just as I was typing this.

Instead of hope, I’d like to grab onto something more meaty, or should I say, substantial.

What I am going to do here is compare the stats of former Cardinals players for the duration of their Cardinals career prior to their walk year with their walk year itself. I strongly believe that for relevance, a player needs to be compared to himself, not to a body of other players as in the ESPN study.

My ground rules are simple: The player had to have been a Cardinal for at least three seasons, had a multi-year contract and departed via free agency, as opposed to trade, release or retirement. The idea behind three years is to have at least two years of results prior to the walk year. A multi-year deal is required to ensure not every comparison year was a walk year, too.

The Cardinals saw 12 such walk year players depart the organization in the last six years.

For pitcher stats, I selected ERA+ as the measurement, which takes into account performance relative to the league each season. For the hitters, I used OPS+ for the same reason.

I am showing each player’s St. Louis high- and low-water marks but am using the average ERA+ or OPS+ to compare against each player’s walk season. The bar isn’t that high, in my opinion. All the player has to do is post an above-average year. Either the walk season is higher than his previous average with the club or it isn’t.

walk year walk ERA+/OPS+ average previous year StL high StL low
Jason Isringhausen 2008 75 164 177 198 75
Braden Looper 2008 102 107 89 125 94
Mark Mulder 2008 39 71 36 116 36
David Eckstein 2007 93 90 81 99 81
Jason Marquis 2006 74 109 102 115 74
Jeff Suppan 2006 108 111 119 119 103
Matt Morris 2005 103 126 90 167 90
Mike Matheny 2004 65 67 79 79 51
Edgar Renteria 2004 88 99 130 139 77
Woody Williams 2004 102 151 106 189 102
Steve Kline 2004 239 155 108 240 108
Fernando Vina 2003 82 92 79 100 79

The story is pretty compelling.

The results of ten of the 12 players or 83% DECLINED in their walk year over their previous years’ Cardinals average. Only two players, David Eckstein in 2007 and Steve Kline in 2004, improved in their final season.

Lowering the criteria to simply improving in one year – in the walk year compared to the previous single season – delivers slightly better results. In that case, six of the 12 or 50% showed improvement in their final season over their second-to-last with St. Louis.

The six improvers are Braden Looper (2008), Mark Mulder (2008), Eckstein (2007), Matt Morris (2005), Kline (2004) and Fernando Vina (2003).

However, Mulder’s numbers were so bad in both years (39 vs. 36 ERA+) that calling his 2008 season a step up over his 2007 would be a cruel joke. Putting him aside would drop the walk year-to-previous year success rate to 5-of-11 or 45%.

Further, three of the 12 walk year performances represented the player’s absolutely WORST year as a Cardinal. They include Jason Isringhausen (2008), Jason Marquis (2006) and Woody Williams (2004).

On the other hand, not a single one of the dozen players had their BEST year in St. Louis during their final season there.


Conclusion: You can pick your favorite reason as to why, but the data has spoken. Considering the most recent six years at least, expecting walk year improvement for impending St. Louis Cardinals free agents, whether pitchers or hitters, is a low odds proposition at best.

Sorry, Joel, but it looks like there is a very good reason Duncan didn’t say it.


Addendum: After publishing, I recalled that Jim Edmonds was in his walk year in 2006, just before then-GM Walt Jocketty surprised both the player and the Cardinal Nation by ill-advisedly offering Jimmy two more years. As we know, the Cards ate $2 million just to get out of year two.

walk year walk ERA+/OPS+ average previous year StL high StL low
Jim Edmonds 2006 110 153 137 170 110

Anyway, Edmonds just reinforces the conclusion already made, as his 2006 “walk year” was his worst as a Cardinal up to that point. (He posted an OPS+ of 88 in his final St. Louis season, 2007.)

There may have been other mid-Cardinals career walk years that I missed here, but I think the point has been adequately made.

Cardinals minor matters – February 4


Ankiel and Ludwick arbitration dates set

You heard it here first. The dates for the arbitration hearings for St. Louis Cardinals outfielders Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick have been set. In a schedule that only MLB could devise, the two hearings will be held in Phoenix five days apart – on February 12 (Ankiel) and February 17 (Ludwick).

If I was a betting man, I would put my money on February 12 happening while the 17th would be made unnecessary by a pre-hearing agreement with Ludwick. Whether the latter would be a simple one-year deal or a multi-year contract is unclear.

The last arbitration hearing the Cardinals actually had, back in 1999, they defeated agent Scott Boras on behalf of pitcher Darren Oliver. This time, Boras represents Ankiel, the pitcher-turned outfielder. The two sides come in separated by almost $1 million in their respective views of the player’s 2009 value.

More information from my previous reports here and here. (Also be sure to read the comments below the posts.)


Korean is day-to-day, just like the rest

Regarding the contract of Hyang-Nam Choi, the 37- (or 38) year-old reliever from Korea signed by the Cardinals (reports vary on his exact age), a Korean news source reported the deal is a month-to-month agreement, somehow implying out-of-the-ordinary terms that put the import on less-firm ground than his minor league counterparts.

Not so.

Choi is signed to a standard one-year Memphis contract, and will be in minor league camp when it opens on Monday, March 9. The “monthly” aspect is standard for all minor league contracts, in that players are paid a monthly amount, rather than having it expressed as an annual salary.

Apparently the Korean writer was unfamiliar with that. That’s ok, as many of us Americans are confused by Korean names. Choi is the player’s family name followed by his given name, listed as Choi Hyang-nam in Korean sources.

Think Hee-Seop Choi, the then-Dodgers Korean first baseman whose 2005 collision with Scott Rolen‘s shoulder changed everything. On the other hand, let’s not think about that after all.

Also, Choi the pitcher has been added to my Cardinals roster matrix as its 307th player.


Rosenthal: Cards out of money

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports had this sobering comment about the Cardinals in a Wednesday column.

“Club officials are telling agents that they are out of money, a stunning development considering that the team will host the All-Star Game this season.”

The reporter speculates that ticket sales and revenues are not being boosted by the presence of the All-Star Game and that the Cards are not in the hunt for free agent Braden Looper, or apparently anyone else that requires a major league salary.

I haven’t revisited the math of the Cardinals total payroll with a set roster, but it would seem to be somewhere in the low $90 millions, which could be as much as a 10% reduction from 2008. Of course, as noted above, Ankiel’s and Ludwick’s salaries could swing the 2009 total by as much as $2.4 million one way or the other.


Gorgen’s shoulder surgery?

Via a post on a social networking site (nothing seems to be private anymore), our Scout.com Cardinals Minor League Rookie Pitcher of the Year with Batavia last season, Scott Gorgen, mentioned recently that he required surgery on his shoulder. I have not yet been able to reach the 22-year-old right-hander to confirm this but I will post if so.

Since the Cardinals have not yet received their signed HIPAA waiver forms which enable them to discuss 2009 player injuries, the organization is unable to comment publicly at this time.


Houston Justice served

In case you missed this good news story the other day, Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle, writing for the Sporting News, offers a positive spin on the 2009 Cardinals. It is nice to see from a writer from an opposing city, especially considering some of the biased junk that has come out of Chicago in recent years.

Justice should have a good eye for bad situations as the Astros have decimated their once-strong farm system both in staff and players and despite finishing just ahead of the Cardinals last year, are an organization seemingly trending in the wrong direction.

Tough Decisions: The Cardinals 2009 Rule 5 Draft – Part 2


Note: This post has been superseded by more current information as of November 28: link to updated Cardinals Rule 5 list.

In part one of this article, we looked at recent St. Louis Cardinals history with respect to the Rule 5 draft and began to consider the increased problem that will be facing the organization this coming winter.

As part one concluded, I disclosed the current number of Cardinals farmhands that would become Rule 5 eligible this December is 59. That is just two short of the total number of players they exposed over the prior three Rule 5 drafts combined.

Here they are, broken out into several groups. First, we will start with the 14 players that rank among my top 40 prospects in the Cardinals system. These would seem to represent the most likely candidates for protection as of now.

The columns include the player’s date of birth (DOB), the year the player was drafted and the round, the year and age at which the player first signed, my top 40 ranking and the working roster assignment for the player heading into spring training.

Player Position DOB Draft yr/rd Signed Age Rank Team
Colby Rasmus OF 08/11/1986 2005 1 2005 18 1 Memphis
Bryan Anderson C 12/16/1986 2005 4 2005 18 3 Memphis
David Freese 3B 04/28/1983 2006 9 SD 2006 23 5 Memphis
Daryl Jones OF 06/25/1987 2005 3 2005 17 6 Springfield
Jon Jay OF 03/15/1985 2006 2 2006 21 12 Memphis
Adam Ottavino RHS 11/22/1985 2006 1 2006 20 15 Springfield
P.J. Walters RHS 03/12/1985 2006 11 2006 21 17 Memphis
Allen Craig 3B 07/18/1984 2006 8 2006 21 18 Springfield
Francisco Samuel RHR 12/20/1986 2006 19 21 Palm Beach
Tyler Herron RHS 08/05/1986 2005 1a 2005 18 25 Palm Beach
Shane Robinson OF 10/30/1984 2006 5 2006 21 27 Memphis
Shaun Garceau RHS 08/28/1987 2005 20 2005 17 29 Palm Beach
Luke Gregerson RHR 05/14/1984 2006 28 2006 22 30 Springfield
Jose Martinez 2B 01/24/1986 2004 18 37 Springfield

Next are the 13 first-time eligibles from the 2006 draft that are not ranked among my top 40 prospects. There are certainly some prominent names in this list that could move up if they can put together solid 2009 seasons.

Remember that the organization’s 2008 Minor League Player of the Year Daryl Jones (pictured) was absent from top prospect lists just one year ago. Now I have him ranked number six and I am not alone!

Player Position DOB Draft yr/rd Signed Age Team
Brad Furnish LHS 01/19/1985 2006 2 2006 21 Springfield
Mark Hamilton 1B 07/29/1984 2006 2a 2006 21 Springfield
Gary Daley Jr. RHR 11/01/1985 2006 3 2006 20 Quad Cities
Eddie Degerman RHR 09/14/1983 2006 4 2006 22 Palm Beach
Tyler Norrick LHS 09/27/1983 2006 6 2006 22 Palm Beach
Luke Gorsett OF 05/28/1985 2006 7 2006 21 Palm Beach
David Carpenter RHR 07/15/1985 2006 12 2006 20 Johnson City
Amaury Marti OF 09/02/1978* 2006 18 2006 27* Memphis
Brandon Buckman 1B 02/14/1984 2006 19 2006 22 Springfield
Mark Shorey OF 08/13/1984 2006 31 2006 21 Springfield
Isa Garcia 2B 08/20/1984 2006 34 2006 21 Springfield
Jim Rapoport OF 06/25/1985 2006 35 2006 20 Springfield
Kyle Mura RHS 11/24/1984 2006 42 2006 21 Springfield
* add four years?

There are another nine players from earlier Cardinals drafts, almost all of whom have been previously exposed to the Rule 5 draft. One exception is Mike Parisi, removed from the 40-man roster after the season and potentially lined up for his first Rule 5. Instead, it is possible that he will be re-added to the roster following his recovery from Tommy John elbow ligament replacement surgery, but if he does, it will be at the expense of one of these other players. Another first-timer is oft-injured hurler Tyler Leach, part of the teenaged signing group from 2005.

Player Position DOB Draft yr/rd Signed Age Team
Mark McCormick RHS 10/15/1983 2005 1a 2005 21 Springfield
Trey Hearne RHS 08/19/1983 2005 28 2005 21 Springfield
Casey Rowlett OF 02/08/1983 2005 32 2005 22 Springfield
Kenny Maiques RHR 06/25/1985 2005 37 2005 20 Palm Beach
Tyler Leach RHS 09/08/1986 2005 39 2005 18 Johnson City
Mike Parisi RHS 04/18/1983 2004 9 2004 21 Memphis
Mike Sillman RHR 12/03/1981 2004 21 2004 22 Memphis
Brandon Yarbrough C 11/09/1984 2003 5 2003 18 Memphis
Matt Pagnozzi C 11/10/1982 2003 8 2003 20 Memphis

The final group of 23 includes those signed as free agents, whether as minor league veterans such as Ian Ostlund, non-drafted free agents like Brandon Dickson, a minor league Rule 5 pick up (Russ Haltiwanger) as well as those that were originally signed to play in the Latin American academies. This group includes such standouts as Donovan Solano, Domnit Bolivar and Elvis Hernandez. A number of these players also have a chance to step up during 2009.

Player Position DOB Signed Age Team
Russ Haltiwanger RHR 04/21/1984 2005 21 Memphis
Jon Mikrut RHR 11/22/1982 2005 22 Memphis
Joe Rogers LHS 07/19/1981 2001 19 Memphis
Justin Knoedler C 07/17/1980 2001 20 Memphis
Joe Thurston 2B 09/29/1979 1999 19 Memphis
Ian Ostlund LHR 10/17/1978 2001 22 Memphis
Donovan Solano SS 12/17/1987 2005 17 Springfield
Brandon Dickson RHS 11/03/1984 2006 21 Springfield
Marco Gonzalez RHR 05/28/1984 2006 22 Springfield
Jose Mateo RHR 08/31/1986 2005 18 Palm Beach
Elvis Hernandez RHS 04/27/1985 2005 19 Palm Beach
Domnit Bolivar SS 05/12/1989 2005 16 Quad Cities
Edwin Gomez OF 03/10/1988 2005 16 Batavia
Jairo Martinez OF 05/27/1987 2005 17 Batavia
Jaime Landin 2B 04/19/1983 2005 22 Batavia
Carlos Gonzalez RHR 08/31/1988 2005 16 Johnson City
Andres Rosales RHS 06/13/1988 2004 16 Johnson City
Ivan Castro C 11/17/1987 2005 17 Johnson City
Senger Peralta LHS 08/14/1987 2004 17 Johnson City
Jose Rada RHS 04/13/1988 2005 17 GCL
Omar Javier RHS 10/04/1987 2005 17 GCL
Julio Castellanos LHR 06/11/1987 2005 17 GCL
Carlos Noguera RHS 04/21/1989 2005 16 VSL

Puts and takes

Obviously, not all 59 of these players will require protection. Some will also get added to the 40-man sooner than this coming fall. Third baseman David Freese is a good example. Yet all that will do was “use up” a roster spot a few months early. It doesn’t change the bottom line problem.

Simply put, there just isn’t going to be enough room on the 40-man roster for all these players. The Cardinals have averaged only four fall additions in recent years. It would be difficult to expand that exponentially, even if there were to be an extraordinarily large number of exits from St. Louis at the conclusion of the 2009 season.

Looking at the current roster of 35, I count nine potential free agents following this coming season. A number of these players have prominent roles, including four starters from the infield and outfield (Adam Kennedy, Khalil Greene, Troy Glaus and Rick Ankiel) along with two members of the rotation (Todd Wellemeyer and Joel Pineiro). Assuming that none would be kept for 2010 or at least replaced by another veteran would be unreasonable, but it is surely the outside, or most extreme case.

There are at least three players on the 40-man today who have yet to contribute at the major league level that might painlessly be removed between now and then, Blake Hawksworth, Jarrett Hoffpauir and Nick Stavinoha. Even so, that would still leave 23 players on the 40-man roster (35 minus nine minus three).

In other words, under this set of assumptions, at most only 17 (40 minus 23) of the 59 potential Rule 5’ers could be protected by late fall.

One might argue there are other younger players currently on the roster that could also be jettisoned, such as Brendan Ryan and Brad Thompson. I truly feel that the assumption of the club letting all nine veteran free agents leave without replacing any of them from the outside is unbelievable enough already.

Fantasy trades are often just that

Another popular option among fans to provide relief is trading minor leaguers, something the Cardinals have avoided like the plague since the disastrous Mark Mulder for Dan Haren, Daric Barton and Kiko Calero robbery over four years ago. Still, packaging up a group of prospects for one proven major leaguer would seem ideal given this impending problem.

If only it were so easy. Finding one such trade partner for a deal that would seem fair is difficult enough, let alone the inherent challenge in engineering the multiple trades that would probably be needed to put a real dent in the problem. Obviously, any one-for-one swaps of prospects for veterans (unless they are rental players in their walk year) would do nothing to relieve the roster jam.

Doubt me? If we are to take the Cardinals front office comments at face value, they couldn’t even land a reliever to help the struggling 2008 club down the stretch without having to give up “too much” prospect value in return. Well, the time may be coming to seriously rethink that stance.

On the other hand, if the spin is valid and the Cardinals truly have only a very few prospects that are coveted by other organizations, then those who suggest the improving minor league system has been overhyped may be proven correct.

Making it worse

While the number 17 is unrealistically high, it could be eroded from another source. We must also consider that some fast-rising players not yet close to being Rule 5 eligible may break out early, effectively using up one or more of the potential 17 “spare” roster spots “prematurely”.

Brett Wallace, Jess Todd and Clayton Mortensen are among those potentially in this situation. Knowing the roster logjam that will be occurring this fall, the Cardinals may very well decide instead to keep one, two or all three of these players (and others in a comparable status) in the minors for the entire 2009 season, including not calling them up in September.

This would be entirely disconnected from what the three might do on the field in 2009 and regardless of whether or not they could actually help in St. Louis. It would be done only so that the players don’t use up precious roster spots too soon.

Before you scoff at the idea, consider Freese, our Scout.com Cardinals Minor League Player of the Year in 2008. Why do you think he did not receive a most-deserved September promotion to St. Louis? To keep him off the 40-man roster, of course. Instead, journeyman Josh Phelps got the coveted call instead.

How does that short-sighted decision look now that Troy Glaus is out for the first few months of the 2009 season? Wouldn’t it have been better for the 2009 Cardinals for Freese to have had a month of familiarity in the big leagues instead of taking it from a fire-hose as the interim starter at third base this spring? How is Phelps helping St. Louis now that he is with San Francisco?

Same with catcher Bryan Anderson and former major leaguer Mark Johnson. Tell me which player in St. Louis in September would have more greatly benefited the team’s future. It is no contest. (Hint: Like Phelps, Johnson is already gone from the organization.)

Point being that roster issues sometimes inhibit sound baseball decisions. If I was Wallace, I wouldn’t be picking out a new house in the St. Louis suburbs just yet.

One other related point. As you evaluate the “aggressive” moves made (or not made) within the Cardinals system during the 2009 season, keep this list of 59 players in mind. As I said in part one, I believe the organization is going to do everything possible during this upcoming season to sort out the keepers from this group, as they should. For many, time may be running out.

Can’t stash them all

Once the Rule 5 date approaches, there is a further consideration for those players that cannot be kept on the 40-man. The organization can place no more than 38 non-40-man players on the Memphis roster submitted for the Rule 5 draft. These players, eligible to be selected in the Major League phase of the draft, would require the claiming club to keep them at the MLB level for the entire 2010 season if taken.

On the other hand, players rostered at Double-A Springfield and below for Rule 5 purposes are not required to be kept at the major league level by the claiming organization if selected. In other words, if any decent prospects at that level or below are exposed, chances are good they will be lost. The price is just $12,000 or $4,000 depending on the level.

Cody Haerther is a recent example, left on the Double-A roster for the December Rule 5. Since the claiming Toronto Blue Jays can keep Haerther off their 40-man roster and in the minors, they have absolutely no reason to consider returning the outfielder to St. Louis in the spring.

Dual challenges

I bring this up to suggest that the Cardinals may have two sets of decisions coming this fall. The first, and most important revolves around which players to add to the 40-man roster to secure full player protection. The second, selecting those to put on the Memphis “reserve” roster for Rule 5, could also become a bit of challenge.

As a point of reference, in the December 2008 Rule 5 Draft, the New York Yankees were the big losers. Six of their farmhands were selected by other organizations, including four off their Triple-A roster, lost in the Major League phase.

Still, for a Rule 5 player to be claimed by another team in the Major League phase, that organization must have 40-man roster space to put him. There is a legitimate reason to wonder if many other clubs may also have troubles with having more qualified players than room on their rosters.

This might keep the projected Cardinals Rule 5 losses next December down a bit, but there are a lot of gyrations required between now and then. It is a bit of a two-edged sword, as the more of these 59 at-risk players that excel during the 2009 season, the more difficult the organization’s decisions will become.

At what point does something that is generally considered to be a “good problem”, minor league depth, become a “real” problem? I think we will soon find out.

Tough Decisions: The Cardinals 2009 Rule 5 Draft – Part 1


Note: This post has been superseded by more current information as of November 28: link to updated Cardinals Rule 5 list.

I am amused when I read about writers praising the St. Louis Cardinals for their aggressive minor league promotions, as if the organization has discovered some new brand of baseball wisdom.

Here’s the reality. They are doing it because they have to.

They need to move their players up through the system more quickly in order to determine which ones are keepers before they start to risk losing them at what could soon be an unprecedented rate for the franchise.

Do I have your attention yet?

There is potential trouble on the horizon, which may first manifest itself in the 2009 Rule 5 Draft this coming December, of all places.

The Rule 5 Draft, which occurs each year at the Winter Meetings, is of only mild interest at best to the average fan. After all, it is sort of a baseball version of a flea market. There could be good merchandise available, but it may take some shopping to find what you want and more likely than not, you may come home empty-handed.

For players that may feel buried in their current organization, Rule 5 can offer the chance for a fresh, new beginning. For clubs, the draft represents an opportunity to mine a diamond in the rough at pennies on the player-development dollar.

Not everyone is in love with Rule 5, however. Those clubs blessed with more top talent than they can protect view the event with some trepidation. After all, for every organization that gains a player via the process, another club takes a loss, saying goodbye to a player in whom they’ve likely invested a lot of time and money in development.

The qualification

Players that have been professionals for four or five years must be added to their club’s 40-man roster or be exposed for possible selection by one the 29 other clubs in the Rule 5 draft.

Organizations have five years of exclusive control of players that signed their first professional contract at 18 years old or younger, but it drops to four years for those that signed at 19 or older. The relevant date for this calculation is when the first contract is signed, not when the player initially takes the field.

The current example – 2005

This line is currently drawn at the 2005 draft, one of the Cardinals’ best in recent years. This is both a blessing and a curse, as will be further explained later.

Five players from the class of 2005 would already have been Rule 5 eligible in December 2008. This is due to their being at least 19 years old when having first signed and having passed four years as a pro.

The group was led by first-rounder, shortstop Tyler Greene and supplemental first-rounder, pitcher Mark McCormick. Trey Hearne, Kenny Maiques and Casey Rowlett were the other players originally drafted in 2005 eligible to have been selected. Greene was added to the 40-man prior to the draft and the other four were not taken.

Other members of the 2005 draft class were excluded from this most recent Rule 5 draft for the final time. That group of high-flying teenage draftees was headlined by top prospects Colby Rasmus, Bryan Anderson, Tyler Herron and Daryl Jones, all selected in the first four rounds that year. Other later-round 2005 drafted exclusions include Shaun Garceau and Tyler Leach, signed at the age of 18 or younger.

Unless protected, all of the 2005-drafted players will be eligible to be taken in the December 2009 Rule 5 Draft – with the exception of one individual. (Don’t you hate all the exceptions?)

Pitcher Blake King was selected as an 18-year-old in 2005 and was a draft-and-follow player. Under a since-abolished rule, clubs could control the rights to certain players up until the next draft. King did not sign his first contract until May 2006, after he turned 19. That gave the organization his services for four years, or through the 2010 season.

Coming up – 2006

If you thought 2005 was bad, wait until you see the college-heavy draft of 2006. Without action, 20 members of that class still in the organization will become Rule 5 eligible this coming fall. Only nine younger players from that draft can remain under Cardinals control for an additional year.

The 20 at-risk include some very prominent names such as Adam Ottavino, Jon Jay (pictured) and P.J. Walters. Does that help you understand why Jay was invited to major league spring training when others were not?

Free agents, too

It isn’t just drafted players that figure into the Rule 5 mix. Free agent signings, including players from the Latin American academies, also come into play.

Jose Martinez, Francisco Samuel and Domnit Bolivar will be among those potentially exposed for the first time this coming winter.

The history

In recent years, the Cardinals have been relatively quiet in terms of Rule 5 activity. Yet this past December, they actually had a player taken in the major league phase of the Rule 5 Draft, their first since Tyler Johnson in 2004.

Reliever Luis Perdomo, who came over to St. Louis last summer in return for Anthony Reyes, was selected by the San Francisco Giants. Perdomo may still end up back with the Cardinals if he is unable to stay on the Giants’ 25-man active roster for the entire 2009 season.

The previous year, the Cards selected Brian Barton from the Cleveland Indians, but did not have any players taken. The outfielder remained with the Cardinals during all of 2008 so is now St. Louis property.

In the major league phase of the 2006 draft, the Cardinals were neither buyers nor sellers. The previous year, they selected, then returned Cubs pitcher Juan Mateo. Johnson was the only Cards major league Rule 5 transaction in 2004.

The population

If the recent past is any indication, things will get interesting as the December 2009 draft nears.

In November 2008, the Cardinals added two players, reliever Matt Scherer and shortstop Greene, to their 40-man roster for Rule 5 protection. The two years prior, they added six and five players, respectively.

Those remaining behind became Rule 5 draft eligible. In 2008, that totaled 16 players, after 18 the year prior and 27 in 2006. However, one must remember that minor leaguers signed as free agents each fall prior to the Rule 5 draft are also unprotected.

Taking that into account, the number of true prospects that were eligible to have been taken in the last three drafts were 13, 16 and 20.

40-man adds R5 avail R5 avail prospects lost
2008 2 16 13 2
2007 6 18 16 0
2006 5 27 20 0
Total 13 61 49 2

Of them, only Perdomo and Cody Haerther left via the Rule 5 draft. In the case of the latter, the Cardinals seemed to purposely leave him at the Double-A level, making it easier for another organization to select and keep the outfielder.

St. Louis Cardinals recent Rule 5 Draft and related results

MLB taken Return MLB lost Return MiLB taken MiLB lost 40 man adds
2008 none Luis Perdomo (SF) TBD Russ Haltiwanger (KC) Cody Haerther (Tor) Matt Scherer
Tyler Greene
2007 Brian Barton (Cle) no none none none Kyle McClellan
Jason Motte
Joe Mather
Mike Parisi
Jarrett Hoffpauir
Mark Worrell
2006 none none Omar Falcon (Pit) none Troy Cate
Jose Contreras (Was) Dennis Dove
Blake Hawksworth
Cody Haerther
Andy Cavazos
2005 Juan Mateo (ChC) yes none Iker Franco (Atl) Tim Hummel (CWS)
Vince Harrison (Bos)
2004 none Tyler Johnson (Oak) yes Matt Demarco (Fla) Tony Granadillo (Bos)
Jose Garcia (Tex) Josh Teekel (Fla)
Justin Knoff (Cin)
2003 Hector Luna (Cle) no none Rayner Laya (Mon) Jesse Roman (SD)
Jackson Paz (Min)
2002 none Blake Williams (Cin) yes

The future

With rosters as of today, the number of Cardinals farmhands that would be Rule 5 eligible this December is an amazing number – 59. This is very close to the total number of Cards players that were eligible in the last three Rule 5 drafts combined!

In the second part of this article, we will look into how they are distributed and consider what the Cardinals might be doing over the next ten months to protect as many as possible.

Cardinals television update – 02/03/09


Note: See updated schedule information here in my February 22 post.

I didn’t expect to have another of these reports so soon, but the remainder of the St. Louis Cardinals spring and regular season television broadcasts are now filled in on MLB.com.

This post is an update of my January 8, January 19 and January 31 reports.

The news of the regular season television telecasts on Fox Sports Midwest are not a big deal, as they are as expected – basically the 130 games that were not already announced on ESPN, big FOX or KSDK-5. Still, it is good to see them down in print.

The best new news is that FS Midwest’s spring schedule includes five telecasts, including three that were not already scheduled on the away team’s network. This group includes the Friday, April 3 exhibition against the Triple-A Redbirds in Memphis.

Add the two games on KSDK and that makes seven Cardinals spring games available locally. Including two other games on opponent clubs’ networks makes a total of nine televised games planned so far.


Redbird Roundtable on FS Midwest

Fox Sports Midwest postgame analysts Rick Horton and Jack Clark give their takes on the 2009 season in Redbirds Roundtable, a 30-minute special taped at the recent Cardinals Winter Warm-up.  The show debuts Tuesday, February 3 at 10 p.m. CST on Fox Sports Midwest. Schedule details here.

Replays of Fox Sports Midwest’s Winter Warm-up recap shows are also continuing. Schedule details here.


Radio note: The KTRS radio schedule below is now confirmed. 20 spring games, all on Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday and Sunday plus the Friday night exhibition in Memphis on April 3.

TV notes: Second SportsNet New York (SNY) Mets game on 3/3 added to the schedule as well as the 3/19 game on Fox Sports Florida. That brings the total to 11 televised games, seven on home and six on away networks including two games simulcast by home and away networks.


2009 St. Louis Cardinals Spring Training Television Schedule (as of 2/17/09)

DAY DATE TM* HOME TEAM VISITOR Radio TV
Wed 25-Feb-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Florida Marlins
Thur 26-Feb-09 1:05 Baltimore Orioles St. Louis Cardinals
Fri 27-Feb-09 1:05 New York Mets St. Louis Cardinals SNY
Sat 28-Feb-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Washington Nationals KTRS
Sun 1-Mar-09 1:05 Florida Marlins St. Louis Cardinals KTRS
Mon 2-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Tampa Bay Rays
Tues 3-Mar-09 1:05 New York Mets St. Louis Cardinals KTRS SNY
Thur 5-Mar-09 2:05 St. Louis Cardinals Dom Republic WBC KTRS
Fri 6-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals New York Mets
Sat 7-Mar-09 1:05 Houston Astros St. Louis Cardinals KTRS
Sun 8-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Florida Marlins KTRS
Tues 10-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Detroit Tigers KTRS
Wed 11-Mar-09 1:05 Florida Marlins St. Louis Cardinals
Thur 12-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Boston Red Sox KTRS
Fri 13-Mar-09 1:05 Baltimore Orioles St. Louis Cardinals
Fri 13-Mar-09 7:05 St. Louis Cardinals Baltimore Orioles
Sat 14-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Atlanta Braves KTRS KSDK 5
Sun 15-Mar-09 1:05 Philadelphia Phillies St. Louis Cardinals KTRS My Phl 17
Mon 16-Mar-09 1:05 Detroit Tigers St. Louis Cardinals FS Midwest
Wed 18-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Baltimore Orioles
Wed 18-Mar-09 1:05 Baltimore Orioles St. Louis Cardinals FS Midwest
Thur 19-Mar-09 1:05 Tampa Bay Rays St. Louis Cardinals KTRS FS Florida
Fri 20-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Philadelphia Phillies
Sat 21-Mar-09 1:05 Washington Nationals St. Louis Cardinals KTRS
Sun 22-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Baltimore Orioles KTRS KSDK 5
Mon 23-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Washington Nationals
Wed 25-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Houston Astros FS SW/Midwest
Thur 26-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals New York Mets KTRS
Fri 27-Mar-09 1:05 Boston Red Sox St. Louis Cardinals
Sat 28-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Baltimore Orioles KTRS
Sun 29-Mar-09 1:05 Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals KTRS FS No/Midwest
Mon 30-Mar-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals Florida Marlins
Tues 31-Mar-09 1:05 Baltimore Orioles St. Louis Cardinals KTRS
Wed 1-Apr-09 1:05 St. Louis Cardinals New York Mets
Thur 2-Apr-09 1:05 Florida Marlins St. Louis Cardinals KTRS
Fri 3-Apr-09 7:05 Memphis Redbirds St. Louis Cardinals KTRS FS Midwest
Sat 4-Apr-09 1:05 Memphis Redbirds St. Louis Cardinals KTRS

How about some relief around here?

As every St. Louis Cardinals fan already knows so well, one of the major disappointments of the 2008 club was its relief corps.

There are plenty of reasons assigned to the problem, including the collapse of Jason Isringhausen, the struggles of the left-handers, relievers being used out of their roles, late-season fatigue, rookie inconsistency and many more.

I have no reason to argue about any of them, yet I wondered whether the starters might have been putting more pressure on the bullpen by not going as deep into games. Here are basic numbers for the starting pitchers over the last six seasons.

Games Total IP Starters IP IP/start
2008 162 1454 955 5.9
2007 162 1435.7 889 5.5
2006 161 1429.7 941.7 5.8
2005 162 1445.7 1048 6.5
2004 162 1453.7 996.3 6.2
2003 162 1463.7 979.3 6.0

While the Cardinals starters last season fell just short of six innings per outing, that mark was actually better than achieved in either of the prior two years. Not surprisingly, the high water marks in recent years of well over six innings were established by the triple-digit win clubs of 2004 and 2005.

There seems nothing obvious that can be pinned on the starters so let’s look at the relievers themselves. The most frequently-quoted measurement is their 31 blown saves, tied for worst in the majors. Here are the other traditional measures.

Save opps Saves Blown Holds
2008 73 42 31 115
2007 45 34 11 82
2006 57 38 19 90
2005 65 48 17 86
2004 73 57 16 102
2003 71 44 27 77

Those looking for the bright side in the pen’s performance can point to the 115 holds, which is the top number in recent years. That offers the major difference between 2008 and 2003, the season closest to last in terms of bullpen ineffectiveness.

Despite all the troubles, the 2008 bullpen was presented with 73 save opportunities, tied for the most during this period. (Though not material, I couldn’t help but notice that 2008 and 2004 would have been almost identical if 15 blown saves last season could have been moved to the saves column instead. Of course, had that happened, the team could have won as many as 101 games and everything would have been different!)

Here is where I decided to dig a bit deeper with the help of the stats available from Baseball-Reference.com.

One of the many splits available is starters vs. relievers. Every pitch, every at-bat all season long was made by one or the other, right? The next split is between relievers in a save situation (SS) and those not in a save situation (NSS). Again, every relief appearance has to be one or the other.

To look at the difference in results achieved between these two situations, I selected one traditional measurement, ERA, and another newer one, OPS+ of the opposing hitters facing the Cardinals relievers.

Save sit ERA SS OPS+ Non-save sit ERA NSS OPS+
2008 5.01 132 3.83 101
2007 3.28 88 4.25 95
2006 3.94 92 4.09 96
2005 2.59 98 3.41 90
2004 1.96 55 3.48 81
2003 5.20 132 4.65 115

A couple of things stand out. Most obvious is the increase in ERA and OPS+ in save situations in 2008 over previous seasons and the disparity between the 2008 results in the non-save situations vs. the save situations. In only 2003 and 2008 were the numbers worse when there was a small lead to protect.

Another observation is that the size of the 2008 gap based on the situation is larger than in any of the other years in this study. Why was that? Why did this pen do ok except when the game was on the line?

Relief IP Rel appearances Save situations SS IP Non-save situations NSS IP
2008 499 506 189 156.3 317 342.7
2007 546.7 516 113 104.3 403 442.3
2006 488 469 127 109.7 342 378.3
2005 397.7 436 158 118 278 279.7
2004 457.3 469 164 142 305 315.3
2003 484.3 461 146 128 315 356.3

The 2008 bullpen made over 500 total appearances for the second consecutive season, but what really catches my eye is the extraordinarily high number of save situations presented the pen at 189.

I initially wondered if that 189 number could have been increased by many short, ineffective appearances that required additional relievers to be deployed. Yet, the high number of innings pitched under those conditions, 156 1/3, tends to discount that.

Next, let’s look at the percent of the save situations and save situation innings compared to the total workload of the bullpen.

Relief IP Rel appearances Save sits SS % appearances SS IP SS % IP
2008 499 506 189 37% 156.3 31%
2007 546.7 516 113 22% 104.3 19%
2006 488 469 127 27% 109.7 22%
2005 397.7 436 158 36% 118 30%
2004 457.3 469 164 35% 142 31%
2003 484.3 461 146 32% 128 26%

Not only were the absolute numbers large, but the 37% of pen appearances occurring in save situations was substantially greater than in either 2006 or 2007. Same with innings pitched.

Could that mean that the 2008 relievers just weren’t able to handle the frequent pressure situations they were placed in? As crazy as it first sounds, would their overall results have been better if they had been presented with fewer save situations to protect?

The 2008 percentages at least did not vary much from 2004 and 2005, though the results in the win column between 2008 and those seasons were quite different.


My final step is to put this together. Remember that inherent in the definition of a save is that at most only one can be had per win. For example, during last season, Cardinals relievers pitched 189 times in save situations over no more than 73 different games. Of those 73, 42 saves were converted and 31 were blown (42%).

(Not to overly complicate, but there could be multiple blown saves in a single game if the bullpen loses the lead more than once.)

That 42% blown save rate in 2008 is the highest in this six-year period. Yet when considering the total number of pitchers that were put in a save situation, the blown save rate of 16% across all of them does not stand out nearly as much compared to other years.

Of course, none of these gymnastics change the bottom line.

Save situations Save opps (~games) Blown saves Blown save % – opps Blown save % – situations
2008 189 73 31 42% 16%
2007 113 45 11 24% 10%
2006 127 57 19 33% 15%
2005 158 65 17 26% 11%
2004 164 73 16 22% 10%
2003 146 71 27 38% 18%

I am going to stop there and ask you, the readers, what you think. Does this work say anything to you? What do you conclude? What if anything might be missing?


Addendum: At the request of DD17 in the comments that follow, I factored out Jason Isringhausen’s 2008 stats. Interestingly, he appeared in an equal number of save and non-save situations. I guess it is not surprising that his removal helped the club’s save situation ERA, but he actually had a positive impact on the non-save ERA.

What I did find interesting is that Izzy’s save conversion rate of 63%, while not very good, was still better than the rest of the club with him excluded (56%).

In save sits G W L S BS Sv % IP ERA
Team 2008 189 5 13 42 31 58% 156.3 5.01
Izzy 21 1 4 12 7 63% 17.7 10.70
Team w/o Izzy 168 4 9 30 24 56% 138.7 4.28
In non SS G W L S BS Sv % IP ERA
Team 2008 317 17 18 0 0 0 342.7 3.83
Izzy 21 0 1 0 0 0 24 2.16
Team w/o Izzy 296 17 17 0 0 0 318.7 3.95

While I redid the team totals, I am not comfortable with them. To do it properly, it would have required me to make an assumption about whether or not another reliever could have converted the saves that Izzy couldn’t. Instead, I just took out his numbers.

Save sits Save opps (G) Blown Blown Sv % Blown save sit %
2008 total 189 73 31 42% 16%
2008 w/o Izzy 168 73 24 33% 14%