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As the season draws to a close, it’s good to take a look back at whether this team accomplished its goals. The goal this season was to find out what we have and also to grow our Minor League development program. Did we get there?
I think the 2nd part of this equation looks like a “yes”. Our prospect depth looks to be the best it has been in years. We used to focus on 5-8 players who looked like they might one day have a chance to make a difference. Now, that number is about 30. At least 20. And possibly 35-40. And, national rating sites are recognizing these developments and rating the team as a near the top farm system. I’d say mission accomplished on this one.
For the other part, I think it’s a general win with more successes than failures, but still some big question marks. Here’s what we learned:
Catcher – Nothing. This is my biggest criticism area. We still know Herrera can’t throw and Pages can’t hit. We still don’t know what we have in Crooks. We won’t have time to learn what we have in Bernal. 2027 will be about figuring this out.
1B – Burleson passes all the tests and appears to be the first baseman of the future. This wasn’t a big question mark, but Burleson still passed with flying colors.
2B – A phenomenal rookie season by Wetherholt makes us feel comfortable that he has 2B covered for the future. Hopefully, the team can help him with offseason conditioning to help him not wear out over 162 games. I’m sure that will be a focus. That’s nearly impossible to prepare for in the Minors when the season is shorter.
3B – Gorman is not the answer. There isn’t really an answer. But at least we learned the first part and can finally close that book. I’m ready to do so anyway.
LF – Nothing really. Nootbaar got traded and Baez has very few at bats. He looks like a maybe. We will spend much of 2027 continuing to find out.
CF – Scott probably isn’t the answer. Church still may be but it looks more likely that both of those 2 fit better as a 4th or 5th outfielder than an everyday player.
RF – Walker looks like the right long-term solution. I don’t think it’s a definite yet, but close enough. Walker has improved on defense and has made drastic improvements on his swing decisions. Plus, he’s hitting the ball mostly in the air or on a line.
Blaze Jordan – Right now, he looks like a good platoon player for 1B/3B. I do like the at bats he takes even if the results haven’t been fully there yet.
Fermin – His plate approach has grown to the point where he is now a good backup utility player & pinch hitter.
Pallante/Leahy/McGreevey – They have established themselves as somewhere between #2 and #4 starters and I have a good deal of confidence they continue to be that at least in the near future.
Gastellum – He looks like the real deal as a future potential closer. Still need a bit more time to learn for sure.
O’Brien – We learned he can be the closer, but that he is often a bit wild or too hittable to provide the team with confidence of him locking it down.
We have lots of solid young bullpen pitchers who may all be about average.
Holes left to fill either through someone stepping up or external acquisition: LF, CF, 1B, C, 2 starting pitchers. That’s still a lot of question marks going into 2027, but it’s far less than going into 2026 where all we knew we had was a SS and probably a solid first baseman. That’s major progress anyway.
I think this year has been better than expected. I thought we’d be terrible. Seems a lot of our posters agreed. But this year has been occasionally entertaining especially with the additions of Baez, Mathews, Wetherholt and Jordan. Walker has played near MVP level. Graceffo has had a good year. Now we add Bernal.
I believe we had the third youngest lineup. That’s not counting Baez and Bernal. There is much to be excited about. I sure hope there is a 2027. But at least our minor leagues will continue prospect development.Overall this season has been a success. Bloom was tasked with beefing up the farm system and giving younger guys runway and I would say he has done both. Our farm system is now ranked as high as it has been since 2013. Most if not all of the vets have been cleared out.
I agree with most of the position evaluations. I think we are set at 1B, 2B, SS, RF, and DH. Burly, Wetherholt, and Walker have solidified themselves. I also consider Winn a long term piece even though he does need to improve some with the bat. His glove is electric and I don’t think we should take that for granted. Defense matters.
Herrera has had a down year for him. No doubt about it. I think he deserves another full time shot in 2027 to prove that 2025 was not a fluke unless another team makes a big trade offer for him before next season. As for catcher we probably have our long term answer in the organization. We just need to figure out which one it is.
LF could be Baez for a long time but we don’t know yet. He hasn’t done much beyond the miraculous opening game. He has a ways to go to be an everyday player but the talent is obviously in there.
We dont have immediate answers for 3B and CF. Jordan, Church, and Scott are complimentary bench players and I doubt they will become more than that. We are most likely going to have to go outside the organization to address those two spots. Hey, we aren’t going to fill all 26 active roster spots from Memphis if we plan on being a real contender. Sorry but it is the truth.
I like Pallante, Leahy, and McGreevy in the rotation for next year. The other two spots are up for grabs and we may need to bring in some competition from the outside.
O’Brien, Graceffo, and Gastelum are solid bullpen pieces and we have some intriguing options for the other spots. I am not too worried about the pen.
I don’t think SS is a problem spot. Winn is good at defense and he is acceptable with the bat.
Overall, I do think the season has been a success.
The Successes:
1. JJ Wetherholt starting his career off playing at such a high level
2. Jordan Walker breaking out after all hope was lost
3. Kyle Leahy exceeding all expectations and improving throughout the 2nd half o the year and looking like what I would call a good #3
4. Alec Burleson’s steady year to year improvements continuing and looking like a solid middle of the order bat albeit only against RHP
5. The success of signing May and being able to turn him around for 2 quality prospects who have a chance of helping the team going forward.
6. The overall improvement of player development in the minors that seem to be trending upward. Particularly the hitting prospect side has seen some good progress and maybe this will continue.
7. Andre Pallante and Michael McGreevy both doing better overall than I expected and looking like a #3/4 hybrid role.
8. Bryan Torres looking like a capable utility guy.
9. The young RP getting a chance here at the end of the year to see which ones can make it. Luis Gastelum being fun to watch and making guys look silly withFailures
1. The dearth of a viable CF going forward with the whiff of Scott and Church is only looking like a role player. At last they got an answer here though that there isn’t a short term answer.
2. The failure of 3B as well. Gorman is a complete flop and Jordan isn’t hitting quite yet.Similar to CF, at least they know there isn’t an answer short term here but more options for 1+ year down the line with Ortiz, Baez.
3. Liberatore regressing and showing that he isn’t a MLB SP when he was hoped to have at least mid rotation upside.
4. Svanson falling apart after looking so good.
5. Having to watch so much of Stanek
6. The trend of SP hitting a wall in Memphis
7. Crooks continuing to struggle. This is the lowest as much more C options exist for the team.
8. Injuries at the lower levels for position player prospects like Padilla, LunaThere is still a month left to see if some guys like Mathews can become a success.
I don’t think SS is a problem spot.
I didn’t say it was. I said it may become a problem. I say that because Winn’s career trajectory is sloping down. Not steeply, but down. That could reverse, or SS could become a problem.
I am happy with Wetherholt’s rookie year. I do note that he was a lot more exciting at the plate early on that later on. But this year sets a base line. Next year we can judge whether the trajectory is up or down and how steeply, or a plateau.
The outfield is a concern. Besides Walker, there is Baez who is a maybe. Walker straightened out both offensively and defensively, so I am optimistic. My sense is that Baez is not the worker Walker is though. Beyond that, you need binoculars to see anything coming.
At third Jordan is a maybe. I guess maybe Jesus Baez is coming at some point and might be a maybe. Nothing else that I know of.
My thoughts about the catcher situation are known, so I will just say we will try again next year.
Burly has 1B locked up. He has hit a lefty pretty good a few times, so I hope he can overcome the platoon split.
We’ve got some pitchers coming. Hopefully not just more of the same.
I have also talked about the system already. There is a lot more potential now, as yet unrealized. Birds in the bush will need to turn into birds in the hand.
I think .500 was at the upper end of the reasonable expectation range. With injuries now we may drop off.
I will expand with individual grades.
Catcher
Herrera C+, he hasn’t hit as well as I hoped. He was relatively healthy
Crooks F, he strikes out too much, and will likely be passed by Rodriguez and Bernal.
Pages C, he is what he is, a defensive catcher
Bernal incomplete, not even sure we’ll know what we have after the next monthFirst base
Burleson A, he has had his best season and should be a candidate for a long term extension.Second base
Wetherholt B, a great rookie season. An all around good player who will only get better.Shortstop
Winn, B-, his gold glove makes a huge difference. If he hits more he would be an easy A.Third base
Gorman F, he has regressed so much that I don’t think he has a future with us.
Jordan Incomplete, I reflect back to his time at Memphis a last year and then this year. He improved so much and has been a run producer in the minors. We have to give him time in 2027, if there is a season to see what we have. Jesus Baez might be our future.Left field
Baez, incomplete, he has to make more contact. He proved he can do this in his breakout 2025 season I just hope he can improve and not be another Gorman.Center field
Church C-, he probably would fill as a 4th outfielder. I am hopeful Ragsdale, Peete, or Frias will eventually fill this position.Scott F, despite his great speed he just can’t hit enough. He would make a great difference if he could hit. He plays very good defense.
Right field
Walker A+, he has exceeded all expectations and should be locked up long term.Starting pitchers
McGreevy B-, he was great before the last 4 or 5 starts. He may be tiring, but overall seems our ace.Leahy B+, he has exceeded expectations. After a rough start has a sub 3 era, which is great. But he is 29 and might be dealt.
Liberatore D-, he has regressed. He gets a lot of Ks, but has not got the most out of his stuff. He likely might get moved to the pen next year.
Pallante B, he has also done better than expected. I wonder if he has improved, or has been a little lucky. He figures to outprice his value next year and may be traded while his value is higher.
Dobbins, Incomplete, he has filled in well but is now injured with an uncertain return.
Mathews, Incomplete, he will get an audition for the next month, but should be in the rotation next year.
Roby, Incomplete, maybe I am too optimistic on him but I feel he and Mathews have the best pure stuff of this group.
Fitts, Incomplete, in a brief look this year he looked good. He will likely be out ubtil next May or so, but could be in the mud as a starter then.
Bullpen
O’Brien B, he has had a few meltdowns, but has exceeded expectations. He is older, so he may be dealt at some point. But there is little bullpen competition with the exception of Gastulem.Gastelum Incomplete, his change up baffles a lot of hitters,and he has a decent fastball. He could be a future closer.
Soriano B, He has much better than expected. He is a solid set up guy.
Bruihl, B, again he has been better than i thought. I still don’t believe in him longer term.
Stanek, D-, he has been a bust as a free agent signing, even though he was cheap.
Graceffo, A, he has been great. I am wondering if he might be tried as a starter next year.
Svanson, F, he was awful this year. Not sure how you can go IMO from being a future closer to being a liability. His stuff is very good, but it shows how volatile relievers are from year to year.
Bench
Fermin, C, he improved his hitting this year, but i am not convinced he has a future role with us. I think he can be upgraded.Torres, C-, I was hoping he’d hit better. His minor league history says he will.
Pereira, Incomplete, if he can cut down on his strikeouts he may be a valuable right handed bat that can play center field. All we know so far is that his defense is very good.
Yes, I’d say that based upon the states purpose of the 2026; season they accomplishes the mission.
If 2027 has a season – do we think it will be Part B of the goals or something different?
Those who wish to find success in a sub-.500 season will always be able to do so as long as winning is eliminated as an element in building that success.
It all depends on your expectations coming in. They may not be the same as the organization.
In 2025, the Cards had a .481 winning percentage. After shedding their three highest paid players for 2026, they have a .493 win pct currently, along with a much better farm system.
I don’t know how that couldn’t be considered progress, though the use of the word “success” suggests the work is done, which it is clearly not. The pace is not fast enough for some, it appears.
While that statement is certainly true CiF, in this case the actions of the team (and stated actions) make sense given that they weren’t going to win almost no matter what – at least not without diving fully into free agency and not spending that money on player development. This long-term approach looks to be the much wiser decision. That sacrifices 2026 for certain. I think 2027 is also probably a casualty, but there’s a chance that the injection of newly developed prospect blood into the Majors towards the middle to end of the season immediately bares fruit and the team makes the playoffs. Then, who knows what can happen? Hopefully we get to experience some of that exhilaration.
I kind of liked having a shot every year so this giving up a season thing hasn’t always set well. However, I see the logic and I’m happy to see that their plan, for the most part, actually looks like it’s making progress on the stated goals. Had they not made much progress, it would have been gravely disappointing.
I will also point out that they have put themselves in a position where if they were so inclined, they could sign 3 impactful free agents (SP, CF, 3B) and try to go for it in 2027. I doubt they do that, but it is at least now an option on the table.
Signing three impactful free agents would only be an option if BDW wants to substantially increase payroll for a 2027 season that no one knows how many games will be played, in the midst over a battle with the Players Union over money, while coming off another down year in attendance (and surely revenue).
It can’t be called “impossible” until it doesn’t happen, but even putting it out there right now seems overly optimistic. (Sorry to rain on the thought, but it doesn’t seem realistic to me.)
If your expectation is to lose and then you do indeed lose, you have succeeded? I guess I can see a certain logic in that. But I think I’ll continue to equate success with winning. Somehow that just seems to make more sense.
BW: Ahh, progress! As the French would say, that is a cat of a different color!
If by losing you can still be making progress? I believe I can subscribe to that. I’m not sure that’s true in this case either, but I can see the possibilities.Brian, I agree that they are highly unlikely to add 3 good free agents – at least on long-term deals. That would go contrary to what they have been trying to do. However, their entire team salary (even accounting for the $13 million they still will pay Arenado and Contreras) looks to be about $75-80 million. That’s getting crazy low. I could easily see them signing 2-3 recovery contracts like May on 1-year deals which help as stop-gaps for key holes while we wait on development. Then it just becomes a matter of whether those players perform or not.
I don’t think we will sign any impactful free agents for 2027 but I think it is possible they sign or trade for a couple of veteran stopgap players to plug holes at 3B, CF and SP. I recently went into more detail on this in the Trades thread.
CIF said:
If by losing you can still be making progress? I believe I can subscribe to that. I’m not sure that’s true in this case either, but I can see the possibilities.
Doesn’t losing less often matter? Most would probably agree that the organization overall is in a better place now than they were 12 months ago. There is a lot more to making progress than just counting wins.
I guess relatively inexpensive stopgaps COULD become impactful. But they aren’t going to spend the money for 2027 to sign anyone who is SURE to be impactful.
I think Our Bill is done buyng impact players developed by other systems. We could see hole fillers.
That is true for 2027 but at some point the Cards will have to make a splash if they ever want to hoist a 12th flag.
The season has been a modest step forward, and a little more than that on the farm level. I would say that whether we look back at it as a success will depend a lot more on what happens in 2027-2030 than the win-loss record for this year will end up showing.
Chaim Bloom has talked about creating a championship contender, so I think that is the lens I’m going to focus through. In my mind, to be a real World Series contender, you need to have most, if not all of the following in place:
1. A couple of star level performers (MVP or Cy Young vote getters, the sorts of guys who are going to perform day in and day out).
2. A lineup with no more than one weak link (an elite defender with a noodle bat may not be a weak link the same as an elite hitter who can’t catch the ball…but you can’t have more than one guy who struggles to hit or field well enough to avoid the 0-0.5 WAR hole).
3. A rotation with four solid starters and at least one or two of them being legitimate #1-2 starters for October. You can make October with 4 guys and even win with 3, but they have to be very good at the top.
4. A bullpen that is pretty much leak proof at the back end of games. You need reliable arms for the 7th-9th innings and even need some depth here to cover earlier innings in October.
5. Minors or other organizational depth to cover for injuries throughout the season.
It is theoretically possible to win if one or two of these are off the charts dominant (like a staff of aces, or a completely stacked lineup or totally lights out bullpen), but for practical purposes I will be using these 5 measures to define what I think the Cards will need to be successful (aka have a real shot to win a pennant/World Series in the next three or so years).
So, these are my thoughts on the areas defined above:
1. The Cardinals have several good players, but I do not think they have any true stars on the team. Sure, Wetherholt has a great WAR total, but it’s built on more fickle stats such as defensive OAA. Burleson is a solid bat and so is Walker. Winn is a great defender. Herrera can hit a little. Beyond that, I wouldn’t say there are many plus tools on the team. I would say that they need two guys better than Walker or Burleson to be a true contender. Wetherholt may be one. The other will likely have to come from the system or via trade.
2. The lineup has not only two weak links, they have at least three and possibly four as currently constructed and can feasibly be constituted with the current group of players. 3B, CF, LF and C are all big question marks (in order of question size from biggest to least). Can Baez, Bernal or Rodriguez make at least two of those spots average or above? We will still need something more from 3B and CF to get anything out of the next few years.
3. The staff has performed reasonably, and I think we have a few mid to back end guys. Leahy, I feel most comfortable with saying he’s a #3-4 guy. But he’s also no spring chicken. McGreevy has a problem missing bats and that means he’s almost assuredly no better than a #4-5 going forward. Pallante is still not trustworthy but could be the #5 on a good team. Otherwise, Liberatore is clearly best suited for the pen. Mathews looks like he should be a back end starter. Ideally, we need two guys better than Leahy. Will they come from the system or via trade or free agency?
4. The pen is really where the Cards chose to go cheap this year and it shows. O’Brien is fine…Graceffo, Bruihl and Soriano have also been decent. That says a lot about how the team looks. Not just ideally…I think necessarily you need two guys better than O’Brien for the 8th and 9th. You’d also like some depth. Thankfully this is not the hardest part of the rest of the rebuild, so they should find some arms somewhere.
5. The farm is looking healthier. Part of it feels a bit illusory…other than Springfield, it doesn’t seem like any of the farm teams are really performing that well. Part of it is that the Cards have been going for the type of toolsy prospects with athleticism to dream on and tools (power, great fastballs) that seem to get prospect raters excited. But there is some good stuff to work with here and hopefully we will see it come to fruition in the next few years. They need Rainiel to pan out and it would be super nice if Doyle or Franklin (or both) became a star as well because I don’t see the Dewitts shelling out for multiple big free agents or trades.
So I guess it’s a bit of a TBD situation for me. On the surface, I don’t see it as successful. But it very well may be that the building blocks are there and they will come together over the 2027 and 2028 seasons. Sort of like the hitter who’s crushed the ball all year but due to a low BABIP, his stats don’t end up looking great. Or the prospect who tweaks his fastball to add velocity and movement but the results just aren’t there yet. As constructed, I’m not sure I think the Cards will be title contenders in 2028 or 2029. But you could squint (with Cardinal colored glasses) and see something like this come 2029ish:
2B Wetherholt 5 WAR
C Rodriguez 5 WAR
1B Burleson/Gurevitch/Bernal 2.5 WAR
RF Walker 4 WAR
3B Big Acquisition 3-5 WAR
LF Baez 2.5 WAR
DH Bernal/Burly Gurevitch 2 WAR
SS Winn 3 WAR
CF Condon 2.5 WARSP Doyle 5 WAR
SP Logan Gilbert 3.5-4 WAR
SP Mathews 2.5 WAR
SP Fajardo 2 WAR
SP McGreevy 2 WARBP-Franklin, Cijntje, Hjerpe, O’Brien, other acquistions-elite end of game bullpen
Would that team be a title contender if the stats fell the way they’re listed? Sure. Of course it’s no given, but Chaim and company have created a situation where it’s at least feasible. That’s a lot more than could be said for the last several years of the Mozeliak era. So that’s something at least.
Unless a miraculous occurence similar to the parting of the Red Sea becomes a reality, the Cardinals will be denied any bonus baseball for the 4th consecutive season which would be the longest post-season drought since the 7 year famine of ’88 to ’95. From my vantage point, no bonus baseball equates to a failed enterprise.
25 that is probably a. ,105 win team with those stats. — exactly why it won’t happen
I figured it was around 95-97. Maybe the math isn’t too far off. But I do think that in today’s day and age, you need a 100ish win true talent team to beat the Dodgers and whatever club comes out of the AL. The point is that if everything broke right it would be possible. It’s not likely. But it’s much more possible than it was the last few Mozeliak years.
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