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Again, there are two big assumptions being made here.
1) 85 wins is the 2027 goal.
2) The existing players (including minor league additions) cannot improve enough to reach the goal.Until/unless we know how the Cardinals feel, this is a representation of what some would like to see.
They might be able to if there isn’t another trade deadline sell off but a lot of things would have to go right.
And for the record, these are my goals. This is a message board so I assume opinions are allowed. I have no idea what the Cardinals are going to do.
Its a system rebuild not a ML roster makeover.
The results of the rebuild is mostly still in the minors, the upper end of it in AAA and AA.
I’m not sure where to put this, but I’m going to put it here. I’m going to dump most of our players into categories based on their performance this year (offense & defense combined or pitching).
One of the best in the league at his position: Wetherholt
Could have been a good player on a good team this season: Burleson, Walker, Pallante (these last two are a bit on the bottom edge of this category, but probably qualify)
Around an MLB Average Player: Leahy, McGreevey, Winn, Herrera, Graceffo, O’Brien, Bruihl, Dobbins, Gastellum
Had limited playing time but showed they might get to category 1 or 2 with more: Mathews, Bernal
Solid role player. Fine for a bench player or low leverage BP guy on an average team, but probably doesn’t belong on a good one: Pages, Saggese, Pereira, Fermin, Jordan, Torres, Soriano, Stanek, Fernandez
Poor season all around – not MLB-worthy: Svanson, Scott, Prieto, Gorman, (plus several that were released)
Who knows what we have yet?: Baez, Crooks
Ideally, to be highly competitive again, we need a LOT more players in category 1 & 2 than what we have today. Maybe 5-7 more of them. That’s why 2027 doesn’t exactly look like a winner either – even with Mathews & Bernal and even if Winn or Herrera hits better again. They would either need some dramatic improvements in their current roster or to go out and sign (or trade for) 1-3 excellent free agents.
to be highly competitive again, we need a LOT more players in category 1 & 2 than what we have today
We should also remember that a player in catagory 1 or 2 this year may not be next year, or the following year, or ever again. System productivity has to stay ahead of performance attrition. And we should also remember DeJong and how much worse a contract makes that sort of thing.
2027 will be an interesting season with how the Cardinals approach it. When you factor in the upcoming CBA mess and the fact that the Cardinals are a conservative, prudent, and frugal organization it would not be shocking for them to have another runway year, although I think they should be a little more aggressive. Not a lot but at least a little.
Perhaps another runway year will be good enough for them to move the needle forward and maybe get a wild card spot but a lot of things would have to go right if the plan is to go internal only once again. I would view it as a mistake if the plan is to just settle for another 75-80 win season but perhaps my timeline and theirs do not align.
It took the Cardinals a long time to finally let go of the rope and undertake a proper rebuild. I am sure it wasn’t an easy decision since they had been in trying to have winning seasons for the previous 25 years or so. It has recently occurred to me that it might also be a difficult decsion to move on from the rebuild. There will be a temptation to make sure everythiing is exactly right before taking the plunge to try to win again but it has been my experience that the perfect conditions never exist. Sometimes you just have to take a chance that you are ready.
I just hope the paralysis of analysis doesn’t overcome the organization and we are still debating this topic in 2029 or 2030.
We also don’t really know how well the Cardinals TV set up is going as far as revenue and whether ownership has confidence in that part of the revenue stream.
Ideally, to be highly competitive again, we need a LOT more players in category 1 & 2 than what we have today. Maybe 5-7 more of them. That’s why 2027 doesn’t exactly look like a winner either – even with Mathews & Bernal and even if Winn or Herrera hits better again. They would either need some dramatic improvements in their current roster or to go out and sign (or trade for) 1-3 excellent free agents.
I agree (although I wouldn’t expect Pallante to maintain his status next year, as bling notes) and I’ve tried to make this argument here before. You need basically a team without any real black hole spots (such as a guy could be a noodle bat but elite defender, or a big bopper without a glove, but not more than one of those guys), or a team with a superstar or two that can overcome a couple of bad positions on his own. You also need at least two really good starters, and a very good bullpen.
For example, I’d say the Brewers this year have probably 11-13 category 1 or 2 players. The Dodgers have a similar number. Our last division winner, 2022, the Cards had probably 8 or 9 in those two categories, depending on how you quibble about the edges of the categories and whether you count deadline additions. Going back to what I would say was the last elite Cardinal team, in 2013, the Cards had 13 guys I would put in those categories by the time the playoffs came around.
Across the board, it looks like these great teams have around 5 excellent lineup players, with at least two really good starters and a bullpen of 4 or 5 guys you can rely on at the end of games. I personally do not see how the Cards get there next year either, unless we see major development from the farm guys (such as Doyle, Franklin, Rainiel makes it to the show, and a couple of bullpen arms) to where a couple of rookies end up in the top couple of tiers, and guys like Walker, Baez, Bernal, and Mathews really pan out.
I agree that we need at least one or two star players like Walker appeared to be at the start of this past season. The only way to get that, IMO, is through bringing in a free agent or two. The Cardinals need a ‘face of the franchise’ type player.
What are we going to do with Raniel Rodriguez?
What are we going to do with Raniel Rodriguez?
Rainiel has 400 PAs in AA. Walker had about 500 when he had a strong spring training and made the team.
“64” – Good callout. I missed him.
Right now, for this season, Church would have qualified in the solid role player category. I do think he has potential to get to average, but probably never above that.
I should have also listed Hjerpe in The Who knows? category even if I think he’ll end up being a really good one.
From a 40-man roster standpoint, the changes from where we were a week before Spring Training ended to now are:
Subtractions – Dustin May, Matt Pushard, JoJo Romero, Ramon Urias, Yohel Pozo, Lars Nootbaar, Nick Raquet, Chris Roycroft, Tink Hence
Additions – JJ Wetherholt, Quinn Mathews, Max Rajcic, Cade Winquest, Hancel Rincon, Blaze Jordan, Luis Gastelum, Everson Peirera
I’m not sure what to think of all that. I love the first 2 names on the addition list. Nootbaar and May though are big losses. However, the guys we got for them, we will have to wait on. I think in a vacuum, this view looks like marginal progress. It may not count as progress at all if you decide to only look at the changes from opening day and ignore the Wetherholt addition.
Two ways to improve. The one covered here is via additions. The other is improvement from the players already there.
Burleson leads the majors in RBIs. Obviously the face of this ballclub. Now we will be reading some “POBOs” suggesting that we trade him because he may have reached the apex of his production in his career. Others may say that at 27 he doesn’t fit into what the FO is looking for, or he’ll be too tough to sign now that he’s had a power-packed season. (He’s the type of player that this organization was drooling to sign two years ago….. I know things have changed)
All three of those reasons can be argued amongst fans. I’d like to keep him around….. winners of the RBI leader board don’t grow on trees and besides….. he is one of our guys, the rd. 2C pick in 2020 and he is very durable (really only one trip to the IL.in the majors and 601 ABs this season) The kids will be looking for leadership from a guy that is already successful not one that has the potential to be a success. One vote here for him being part of the ’27 edition of the Cards.
I agree with what you say about Burleson.
But what do we do with Raniel Rodriguez who is reported, by some, to be the best prospect in the game. He has consistently hit, and hit some more. There seems to be a consensus that has anointed Bernal as our catcher going forward. Announcers Caray and Thompson commented that Bernal has the ‘it’ factor. Bernal was playing 1B against the Brewers last night. As for as I could tell, he did fine. As a catcher his throws have not been great. Agree that Burleson is exactly that type of player this organization was drooling to sign a couple of years ago.I’d say that this is a ‘choose your poison’ moment.
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