Cardinal catching prospects

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  • #304148
    Bob Reed
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    After a deflating defeat like tonight, nothing picks me up like farm system optimism. Here’s how the Redbird backstops have faired so far in the minors. (As you probably know, they’ve been great.)

    Jimmy Dale Crooks .400/.538/.900 with a stellar 5/6/26 ratio of BB/K/PA. If the 24-year-old has reclaimed his solid plate discipline of 2022-2024, his prospect profile gets a huge boost into the 70-80 range or so.

    Leonardo Bernal .360/.429/.400 with a 3/4/28 ratio. Elite contact so far, but no pop.

    Rai-Rod .273/.385/.545 and 1/2/13. Just a handful of AB’s, but the power/patience combo looks good so far.

    Chase Heath .429/.500/.857 with 1/0/8. Placed at Palm Beach for some reason. Turns 23 in a few months and already dominated in his brief Low-A appearance last year, so he really, really belongs at Peoria with Rodriguez.

    Ryan Campos .308/.400/.462 and 2/5/15. Not a prospect like the others above, but earns a mention here anyway, with his nice start to the campaign.

    #304168
    1982 willie
    Participant

    Good list bob. Does seem odd to keep chase at lower level if hes already shown that hes above that. Hopefully they will rectify it soon

    #304362
    Albert de Morcerf
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    Can’t wait until we Crooks & Bernal in St Louis!

    #304370
    Bob Reed
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    You certainly may get your wish, Albert.

    Crooks & Bernal are definitely producing right now in Triple-A, and I for one do not consider them blocked at all by Pages or Pozo. (Herrera is a whole other matter. I wanted the Panamanian behind the plate so badly, for some time. But with Ivan’s three leg injuries in the past 12 months, caution suggests that idea should be completely abandoned, to keep the 25-year-old in the lineup every day.)

    As for our minor leaguers, the projection systems admire Jimmy and Leo quite a lot. Specifically, the ZiPS forecast has Bernal as the #6 catching prospect in the sport, and Crooks at #9. (ZiPS has seven catchers among their top 40 overall prospects, by the way.) Clay Davenport’s computer modeling has an almost identical ranking, with Bernal the #5 backstop and Crooks #9. Excellent, right? Your potential MLB catching tandem from 2027-2031 or longer, right?

    Well, the thing of it is, there’s this teenager named Rainiel Rodriguez. ZiPS lists Rai-Rod as the #3 catching prospect, behind only Carter Jensen and Alfredo Duno. Clay Davenport likes him even more. Davenport rates Rodriguez as the #1, with Duno second and Jensen actually one slot below our own Leonardo Bernal. And if you don’t go in for computer modeling, the guys at MLB Pipeline put Rainiel Rodriguez at #2 among all catchers.

    If they all show average, boring, typical progress (and decent health), it should be an embarrassment of backstop riches for the organization over the next decade or so. I’m not talking Yogi Berra & Elston Howard, mind you. Just some good-to-very good options at catcher, year after year.

    #304403
    Cardinals27
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    Isn’t there a DSL catching prospect that put up very good numbers? And we’d have to consider Crooks major league ready, with Bernal ready next year, and Rodriguez MLB ready in 2028?

    #304486
    bicyclemike
    Moderator

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    If we fall out of contention I can see us moving Pages around the deadline, and Pozo too. And if we don’t fall out then probably at least one of those guys will be gone in the off season, and perhaps one of the prospects as well.

    #304487
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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    I can’t imagine Pozo would draw any trade interest, but if they could get something of value for him, I agree that they should do it.

    #304491
    blingboy
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    A key part of being an org that lives by producing its own talent will be the trading from areas of excess to bolster areas of need. If the position is we will trade the guy we want least among our area of excess, then what we will get back is the somebody else’s guy they want least among their excess. That is unlikely to improve things overall much or at all.

    Take the case of the Cardinals catching situation and Pozo as an illustration. We could trade Pozo and get back someone else’s Pozo equivalent at a different position, like outfield. Or we could decide who we want as our primary catcher going forward, retain Pozo as a second catcher, and trade a more valuable guy or guys for someone else’s more valuable guy or guys. You have to decide if want a better second catcher more than you want a better something else.

    #304492
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    With Crooks and Herrera now plus Bernal a season or less away, they won’t need either Pozo or Pages, IMO. With a rebuilding club, I want guys on my roster with upside potential. Pozo and Pages are not that. They are what they are. And if the plan fails, there are Pozos available as free agents every winter.

    #304493
    blingboy
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    I’m not sure the backup catcher needs upside potential. I will agree it depends on if you want a better second catcher more than a better something else.

    #304494
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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    We suspect that Herrera may not be a 130-140 game catcher each season. But they need his bat in the lineup. My opinion is that more than any other position on the Cardinals, the second catcher will play more than other backups. So, yes, having a better second catcher is more important to me than a better second something else.

    In your scenario, keeping Pozo (or Pages) would mean that both Crooks and Bernal would likely have to traded away in the next year or so. IMO, that would be crazy just to protect Pozo (or Pages). He just isn’t that important.

    #304498
    Jnevel
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    I think what Bling is saying is that we keep one of Crooks or Bernal, pair them with 20-40 games of Herrera at catcher, and then use one of Pages or Pozo for the balance of 20-40 starts. That way we get good value back from one of our catchers rather than have a good catcher mostly on the bench. However, if you assume Herrera will only DH, then yes, keep both Bernal and Crooks.

    #304499
    blingboy
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    Having an everyday 1B in Burleson complicates the task of stuffing all the C/DH/1B bats into the lineup with a decent number of PAs.

    #304500
    gscottar
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    There is a decent chance that Crooks, Bernal, and Rodriguez all become good enough to be everyday MLB catchers which means two of them will need to be traded, which is not necessarily a bad thing. You would think they would fetch something that we need, like an OF who can hit.

    #304504
    blingboy
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    Right g. I don’t have an opinion as to the exact scenario, just an openness to trading strength to bolster weakness, and an aversion to playing fantasy ball GM trying to cram all the bats into a roster without thought to anything else, including building for a future. Herrera will become arb eligible next year, so his years of control will be dwindling. Depending upon how other guys come on, a year or two from now it might be him who is excess and valuable enough to bring something good to fill a weakness. We can’t fall in love and we can’t be hoarders.

    #304505
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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    Keeping good catchers interests me. Keeping below average ones doesn’t.

    #304506
    gscottar
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    If we were loaded at every position I would be fine with having multiple All Star catchers but until then I think we should be open to using our surplus to shore up weak areas.

    The latest TCN prospect ranking has numbers 3, 5, and 7 all being catchers and that doesn’t even count Herrera. Meanwhile, we have numerous other positions with little quality depth at all.

    #304507
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    It seems like some assume the Cardinals must tie up one of their four bench spots on a third catcher who rarely plays. I do not. Most teams in MLB do not carry three active catchers. There’s a reason for that – use the spot on a more productive player.

    (Numbers are examples.)

    Today
    Starting quality catcher 60 starts
    Below average catcher #1 80 starts
    Below average catcher #2 20 starts and pinch hitter

    Why not this?
    Starting quality catcher #1 80 starts
    Starting quality catcher #2 80 starts
    Reserve catcher #3 stashed in Memphis if/when needed
    Use bench spot for a hitter who can hit

    #304508
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    i purposely did not list names but contracts matter.

    Next year, both Herrera and Pages will be arbitration eligible. Pozo has two more years. (Assumes they remain in MLB all season.)

    Herrera has no options remaining. Pages has two and Pozo has three.

    I see no need for the Cards to keep carrying five catchers on the 40-man and three on the 26-man.

    I guess the big questions are how many to keep and which ones. Other than that, we agree! 😉

    #304509
    blingboy
    Participant

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    Why not this?
    Starting quality catcher #1 80 starts
    Starting quality catcher #2 80 starts

    Or this

    Starting quality catcher 125 starts
    Starting quality outfielder 150 starts

    #304510
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Other than Herrera, which catcher would generate a starting quality OF in trade?

    Assume it is Crooks, maybe, if he has a good season?

    Then next year, the catchers are Herrera and Bernal with Rodriguez next in line. No need for Pages or Pozo in 2027. Or if you want to keep Pozo, which I get, stash him in Memphis.

    P.S. Other teams might prefer Rodriguez, who is now a consensus top 100 prospect in baseball. It might hurt later to give him up. It also doesn’t solve the current logjam building at the top, with four MLB catchers plus Bernal at Mem/StL.

    #304512
    Cardinals27
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    I don’t think we need to be in a rush to trade any of our top catching prospects. I would call up Crooks, and send Pozo down though. Give Bernal primary catching duties at Memphis. What’s even more interesting is next year. Rodriguez could make it to Memphis by then. Similar to the Donovan trade, and a future Romero deal, I would not be in a hurry.

    #304513
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    The problem with bringing Crooks up now is that if he takes Pozo’s playing time, he will only get about four plate appearances per week. (Pozo currently has nine PAs in 13 games.) My take is if they bring Crooks up, they have to be willing to cut Pages’ playing time.

    #304514
    gscottar
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    I am not in favor carrying three catchers on the 26 man roster but then again I don’t consider Herrera to be a catcher. Unfortunately the Cardinals do so I guess we have to count him as one.

    This surplus issue does not have to be addressed today but eventually all three of Crooks, Bernal, and Rodriguez will graduate from the minor leagues (at least I assume they will). Are all three going to be on the STL 26 man? I would certainly hope not. At least one, and more likely two, should be traded unless they flame out before getting to STL.

    Guys like Pages and Pozo are your sterotypical backup catchers and they are fine in that role.

    #304518
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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