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1.) Sonny Gray is signed through 2026, with a team option (and opt out if option is exercised) for 2027
2.) Miles Mikolas is signed through 2025
3.) Steven Matz is signed through 2025
4.) Lance Lynn is signed through 2024, with a team option for 2025
5.) Kyle Gibson is signed through 2024, with a team option for 2025So, hypothetically, the Cards could be set for the next 2 years without making any moves. That’s assuming Lynn and Gibson do well this season.
But that’s probably not realistic thinking. The Cards would be delighted if Lynn’s and Gibson’s spots would be filled from inside sooner than later. That means Liberatore and
Thompson have to earn those spots for 2025. Or, we can take a look at all the other starters listed in MLB’s 2024 Cardinals top 30 prospect list.2.) Tink Hence
3.) Tekoah Roby
7.) Cooper Hjerpe
9.) Gordon Graceffo
13.) Sem Robberse
14.) Max Rajcic
15.) Michael McGreevy
17.) Adam Kloffenstein
18.) Zack Showalter
20.) Ian Bedell
21.) Brycen Mautz
22.) Quinn Mathews
27.) Pete Hansen
29.) Drew RomSeems like some pretty good depth. Anyone have thoughts on who’s going to nail down a spot in the rotation over the next year or two? Hence and Roby are purported the have the highest ceilings. But who could be dark horse(s). Seems like Rom is rated too low. What about Hjerpe with his unorthodox delivery? Or Graceffo with that near 100mph heater? Or Missouri Tiger Ian Bedell to take over for Missouri Tiger Kyle Gibson? Or Sem the Dutchman? Or Kloff who’s got a Lance Lynn look?
Or do you think they’ll have to go outside again via free agency or trade?
Good list, bccran. As far as the answers, no one knows, even the Cardinals. But they are trying to buy as many lottery tickets as possible.
Mo went outside the org because no one had been able to show the ability to dominate AAA hitters. So that is where the system is right now. We will have to take a look at the AAA pitching stats later this year to see if anyone emerges. Nobody is a lock, that is for sure.
My guess is that the 2025 rotation looks identical to the 2024 rotation but there would be huge turnover in 2026 with Mikolas, Matz, Lynn, and Gibson all out of contract. The only youngster I see with good odds of breaking into the rotation the next two years is Thompson but hopefully one or two others will make it.
Given the age of our rotation, I’ll guess that Thompson is a starter with 120 innings this year. Rom also gets significant innings as a starter with a few going to McGreevey and Graceffo.
In 2025, Lynn will be retired and Matz will move to the bullpen due to injury concerns. Graceffo and McGreevey get most of the work with Bedell as the main #6 starter. Gibson has his option picked up and throws a second year alongside Miles and Gray. It’s a boring rotation, but steady. We get to see some action from Hence, Roby, and Hjerpe as fill-in starters.
In 2026, with any luck, 2 of Hjerpe, Hence, and Roby join Gray in the rotation after Gibson retires and Mikolas’ arm falls off leaving him injured for the season. The other of that big 3 trio suffers a TJ surgery. McGreevey and Bedell stay as solid, but uninspiring starters. Graceffo moves to the pen joining Granillo as one of the best back of the pen combinations in baseball. Rajcic becomes the 6th starter. Showalter and Ixan Henderson battle it out for next starter up with Ruben Menes looking like a future stud option waiting in the wings.
I’m going to go out on a limb here, because I don’t believe the Cards have a future #1 Starter in the system. Those are hard to come by when you draft on average 18-22. I think one of future rotation slots will come from the 2024 Draft.
By the time the draft rolls around, I believe the Cards will benefit from a top heavy position player draft, and will get their choice of power arms, or control LHP.
Burns, Hartle, Hagen Smith, Brecht, Holman…all might look good in the rotation.
Excited to finally see Mathews pitch.
If I were to do a future rotation for 2026, I’d go with
Gray, Hjerpe, Hence, Mautz, #7 overall pick 2024 draft.
Maybe it’s good to compare the guys who were at AA and AAA last season, by looking at their 2023 and career numbers.
Rom (24 years old) – AAA all of last season
AAA – 4.82ERA/1.567WHIP/97IP/102H/118K/50W
Career – 3.71ERA/1.314WHIP/450.2IP/430H/532K/162WRoby (22 years old) – AA all of last season
AA – 4.62ERA/1.200WHIP/58IP/55H/69K/15W
Career – 4.38ERA/1.195WHIP/185IP/164H/230K/57WRobberse (22 years old) – at both AA and AAA last season
AA – 4.06ERA/1.173WHIP/88.2IP/71H/86K/33W
AAA – 4.84ERA/1.783WHIP/35.1IP/39H/44K/24W
Career – 4.85ERA/1.286WHIP/334.1IP/301H/326K/129WKloffenstein (23 years old) – at both AA and AAA last season
AA – 3.24ERA/1.270WHIP/89IP/79H/105K/34W
AAA – 3.00ERA/1.182WHIP/39IP/29H/35K/21/W
Career – 4.42ERA/1.408WHIP/407.2IP/378H/433K/196WMcGreevy (23 years old) – at both AA and AAA last season
AA – 1.45ERA/0.964WHIP/18.2IP/17H/16K/1W
AAA – 4.49ERA/1.467WHIP/134.1IP/160H/107K/37W
Career – 4.19ERA/1.348WHIP305IP/341H/247K/70WGraceffo (23 years old) – at AAA all last season
AAA – 4.92AAA/1.535WHIP/86IP/87H/81K/45W
Career – 3.51ERA/1.194WHIP/251.1IP/218H/257K/82WWhat seems to me to stick out are the number of hits given per innings pitched and the number of Ks for the innings pitched. Clearly Mo wanted more guys last July who could miss bats. Control is another story.
But maybe these stats give a little clearer picture of who might stack up a tad better in vying for the rotation in the next several years. And a little more detail for discussion.
Without knowing a whole lot about these guys other than what I read, two guys I like are Hence and McGreevey. Hence, I will take those two as future rotation pieces. I think Thompson can be a decent mid-rotation guy as well. I want Liberatore to be that as well as he has the physical presence to be very good. Needs to improve his command to take the next step, but you can say that about a lot of guys, including those who have pitched a lot at the big league level.
Mike – McGreevy must be more of a finesse pitcher. Hope he’s a good one. Less than a K/IP guy at the minor league level sometimes has trouble at the major league level when guys lay off his soft stuff and tee off on his “hard” stuff.
I think there is some unjustified optimism about these guys. Just to take one, Graceffo. Last season in AAA he made 18 starts and only 3 quality starts. His WHIP as a starter was over 1.500. Nothing about that says this guy can hold down a rotation slot in MLB. Nothing. Maybe he will get better, yes, he was hurt for a while, yes, but he has to show something at least in AAA before he deserves any talk about MLB, and so far he has not done it.
McGreevy had 27 starts and I think 9 or 10 QS. His WHIP 1.400. That is marginal, but its a maybe for the back end. But a problem I see is his K/9 as a starter was only 7.2, and that is vs minor league hitters. I don’ think Mo is going to go with that. Does anyone think Mo is going to count on that for his future rotation? He too could get better, so lets see him do that, only then it makes sense to write him into a future rotation.
bccran, McGreevy will thrive as far as the middle infield defense lets him. And if he can locate better on the fringes of the zone. I’m still bullish on the guy. He pitches deep into most games, and that is extremely valuable.
Graceffo, his shoulder and delivery are problematic. Talent is there, but I’m afraid he won’t last as a starter.
Nice effort Cranny.
Gray is the only future rotation piece. The next 4 are rentals. Mikolas and Matz I see replacing Gibson and Lynn.
We need to add at the top of the rotation ASAP, upgrading SP2 and SP3, while our pitching prospects gain development.
Mo may also choose to bundle prospects and trade for a “young controllable pitcher” we could slot at SP3.
Another vet rental this deadline (Monty or Q types) is possible. If we fancy ourselves as buyers this deadline, adding at SP2 I expect to be necessary, or we’re pretending.
I’m giving the pitching pipeline a two season pass, but be ready to replace Mikolas and Matz as FA’s after 2025. By then we better be seeing pipeline results.
Re: pitching prospects
Not once this winter have I read here “what more does this guy have to prove to get his debut?” This rebuild will take time.
We need to continue to logjamb the SP depth in the minors, until we have a wave knocking at the door (in theory).
This winter Mo raised the floor of the rotation with positive IP trends, which was a necessity.
My version of the rotation renovation, is now upgrading at SP2 & SP3, which buys additional developmental time, and prioritizes the STL W/L. A best case could see both roles in place by 2025 opening day (trades above).
FDR got it right, you build, before you engage. I hope this rebuild isn’t rushed. Unless the prospects can add a SP2 or SP3 to the rotation, will will need to continue to add from the outside.
Keeping two of Mikolas, Matz, Gibson and Lynn, in 2025, in the SP2 & SP3 roles? Please, no. I’ll gladly eat crow if one of the four earns it.
The only way for the cardinals to solve their pitching problems is to take moe entirely out of the decision making process
VEB had a piece on the Cards acquiring Noah Syndergaard. Anyone think that is wise enough to consider?
Traded then released last season. 6.50 ERA in 18 starts. 22 HRs served up in 88 IP, a higher home run rate than even Lance Lynn! The reason Thor is unemployed isn’t money like Snell and Monty. He was great once, before injuries. Hard pass.
P.S. What did the VEB writer cite as justification?
Maybe for 2025 we could have a rotation of:
SP1 – Gray
SP2 – acquisition
SP3 – Thompson
SP4 – Mikolas
SP5 – MatzSorry to be picky and comment on spelling, Wally, but his name is Mo.
Also, Oliver Marmol spells his first name Oli.
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