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Some people think that the only 2 “set” pieces of the rotation are Flaherty and Mikolas. They use analytics to say that Hudson will surely regress in 2020, and positions #3-5 are up for competition. They mainly cite Hudson’s walks.
Not only was Hudson a 16 game winner, with a 3.35 ERA, but he finished the season strongly.
August –
2.38 ERA/1.12 WHIPSeptember –
2.33 ERA/1.22 WHIPWhy all the questions about him?
Shouldn’t he be even better this season as he matures even more as a MLB starter?I brought this up a couple of weeks ago and I totally agree with you bccran. Some people get spooked by Hudson’s peripherals but the guy is a horse. At worst he is currently our third best starter and maybe our second best. He is a combination of Danny Cox, Matt Morris, and Lance Lynn; a bulldog. I can’t imagine him not in our rotation.
Seems like Hudson’s 2019 “issues” are fixable. If you look at it that way, it does give hope to upside as much as downside.
Hudson’s walk rate in his two full minor league seasons was right around 3. I’d expect him to improve his MLB rate starting this year and be around 3.2-3.3 BB/9, which is a bit high but livable for a guy with good stuff. Carlos Martinez has been right around that most years as a starter, which has driven us a little batty but he’s been good.
I’m pretty naïve about this stuff. All I see is a rookie starter who won 16 games with a 3.35 ERA. In the last third of his rookie starter season he had a 3.17 ERA and only gave up 60 hits in 82 1/3 innings. In August, his BAA was
.193 and in September is was 1.63. Seems to me he got even better as the season wore on. That might bode well for 2020.I just remember at Spring Training in 2017 the coaches were raving about the amount of sink on his 95-96 MPH fastball. Maybe the true measure should be WHIP rather than walks on average per 9 innings.
Hudson led all qualifying MLB pitchers in ground ball rate in 2019 at 56.9%. Only one other pitcher was better than 54.5% and only eight other pitchers in baseball had a rate over 50%. No one benefits from the strong infield defense more than him. Cut down on the free passes and he takes another step up.
Excellent point. The Cards have two solid Gold Glove candidates on the infield and one who is rising to the Gold Glove level. Perfect for Hudson’s style.
Google can be your friend, if you let it… because I knew you would not take my word for it… 😉
The ability of batters and pitchers to hit and induce ground balls is a repeatable skill and studies have shown that batter and pitcher ground ball rates can be estimated reliably using small samples (Carleton, 2012) (Carleton, 2013).
https://www.google.com/search?q=is+ground+ball+rate+repeatable&oq=is+ground+ball+rate+repeatable
Carlos Martinez has a career GB rate of 53.1%. He certainly should benefit from the defense behind him as well.
Is ground ball rate considered a repeatable trate?
That’s why you have certain relief pitchers during certain game scenarios like when a team needs a ground ball to turn a double play.
Hudson had –
4 innings in rookie ball
0 innings in A ball
9+ innings in A+ ball
114 innings in AA ballWhen he arrived in Memphis at the end of the 2017 season, he only had
127 innings pitched as a professional in a little over a full season. In 2018, he only pitched 19 games at Memphis before being called up to the Cardinals. He may still be developing as a professional pitcher. In college and coming through the minors he averaged
1 walk every 3 innings. He’ll probably settle back into that going forward.Ground ball rates generally follow certain pitchers at any levels.
low home run rates usually accompany a high ground ball pitcher due to weaker batter contact, and an inability to square pitches. IMO, a year to year decrease in groundballs, and an increase in home run rate generally signal mechanical or injury issues.Connor Jones has an even higher career groundball rate than Hudson in the minors. But his command is worse than average, and he lacks a swing and miss pitch.
Was it ever a question that Hudson won’t be in the rotation? It should be fun to see how the final two spots shake out though.
Unfortunately, the injury luck in the rotation last year will be hard to repeat.
Bccran, CMart just getting back to 150+ innings below 3.50 would be a major win that I’d be thrilled about.
Was it ever a question that Hudson won’t be in the rotation? It should be fun to see how the final two spots shake out though.
It seems like it was to the blogosphere. Not for those who can look beyond FIP, though.
ST25, FIP is a decent tool and something to take into account for sure, but results are results. Just like projections, I look at them, but how they actually perform are the only thing that matters at the end of the day.
When will there be a stat that measures mentality/what goes on between the ears? That would be something I’d love to see! For example, Waino has a +2.00 mentality and CMart has a -1.5, meaning how many runs they are better than or lower than due to what goes on between the ears.
ChiTown –
That’s a great observation. The scouting department interviews parents, coaches, teachers, administrators, professors, deans, counselors, etc. before the draft in an effort to learn as much as they can beyond the statistics about potential draftees. It’s also why BDW
wants to see how a player is under pressure, with teammates, with the manager, with coaches, with the FO, with fans, and in the community before committing to a long term contract situation. They simply strayed from that with Leake, Cecil, and Fowler and look what happened. It’s one of the reasons why they’re gun shy with big name free agents right now.
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