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There isn’t one particular article as A.E. Schafer who does the writeups releases his Top 30 over the course of several articles, typically five prospects at a time.
1. Dylan Carlson
2. Nolan Gorman
3. Matthew Liberatore
4. Andrew Knizner
5. Ivan Herrera
6. Zack Thompson
7. Jhon Torres
8. Genesis Cabrera
9. Angel Rondon
10. Elehuris Montero
11. Johan Oviedo
12. Justin Williams
13. Malcom Nunez
14. Junior Fernandez
15. Rangel Ravelo
16. Griffin Roberts
17. Jake Woodford
18. Lars Nootbaar
19. John Nogowski
20. Juan Yepez
21. Trejyn Fletcher
22. Ramon Urias
23. Mateo Gil
24. Jack Raltson
25. Edmundo Sosa
26. Luken Baker
27. Kodi Whitley
28. Tony Locey
29. Pedro Pages
30. Andre PallanteJust Missed Prospects
Patrick Romeri
Austin Warner
Patrick Dayton
Delvin Perez
Bryan Dobzanski
Seth Elledge
Kramer Robertson
Francisco Justo
Terry Fuller
Brendan DonovanHe didn’t even have Julio Rodriguez in the just missed articles so he has him out of the Top 40 it would seem.
I don’t know anything about Romeri, but every sites ranking has him listed or mentioned with high praise. Is his potential up there with Fletcher?
Fletcher is supposedly a freak athlete so I would say his potential is greater. However Romari came from the IMG academy so he is probably more advanced currently skills wise. Fletcher is a true lottery ticket. If he improves his skills his athleticism could make him a superstar. If he doesnt pick up the necessary skills he probably doesn’t see the majors though it is possible his speed/defense could make him a fringe player.
Nogowski was a first baseman with very little power coming through the Oakland system, after being drafted out of Florida State in 2014. After coming into the Cardinals system in 2017, he finally showed some power at Springfield in 2018 and Memphis in 2019. Has an outside chance of getting some major league time if he can learn to play a little outfield. He has always had a decent BA and OBP.
Fletcher is supposedly a freak athlete so I would say his potential is greater. However Romari came from the IMG academy so he is probably more advanced currently skills wise. Fletcher is a true lottery ticket. If he improves his skills his athleticism could make him a superstar. If he doesnt pick up the necessary skills he probably doesn’t see the majors though it is possible his speed/defense could make him a fringe player.
That’s about how I see it, too. Both have some intriguing potential, but there was talk that Fletcher might have been the top prep player in the 2020 draft class before he reclassified. Romeri looks like a solid prospect with a good eye and athleticism, but if both hit their 90th percentile outcomes, they’d have much different value.
bccran wrote:
(Nogowski) Has an outside chance of getting some major league time if he can learn to play a little outfield.
That was already tried and abandoned. He is a plus defender at first, however, and can even pitch in a pinch. 😉
This VEB writer also has Ramon Urias ranked ahead of Edmundo Sosa. That seems odd to me. I expect Sosa to be in St. Louis on opening day while Urias probably has very little chance and could be in danger of losing his 40 man spot this year.
This VEB writer also has Ramon Urias ranked ahead of Edmundo Sosa. That seems odd to me. I expect Sosa to be in St. Louis on opening day while Urias probably has very little chance and could be in danger of losing his 40 man spot this year.
Yeah, Sosa seems a considerably better bet to make an impact. I’m hoping he can fill in for Dejong sometimes unless they’re committed to giving Edman some time there.
Sosa may have the better glove but Urias has hit better in the minors. Not sure it is clear cut who might make more of an impact
I am a firm believer that the Cardinals’ own behavior can tell us a lot. Sosa has been called up each of two of the last Septembers. Urias was passed over in 2019. No one can predict the future with 100% certainty, but Sosa has consistently been ranked better on every prospect list I recall seeing until this one. That suggests Sosa is considered by the majority to have a better chance. Sosa is also almost two years younger than Urias.
The one advantage Urias has is one more year remaining on the roster than Sosa, if he survives that long.
CC – Let’s compare how Urias and Sosa have done the past 2 years at Memphis, so we can compare apples and apples.
2018 –
Urias – .261/.291..721/6HR
Sosa – .262/.321/.729/5HR2019 –
Urias – .262/.369/.793/9HRs
Sosa – .291/.335/.801/17HRI don’t believe that you can use Mexican League statistics to make a point. I would argue that Sosa has actually had a slightly better bat in the minors over the last several years.
Why cherry pick? Why not use AA stats as well?
Urias’ has the higher wrc+ even using just AAA stats which seems to be the comparison standard these days.
Perhaps it is just me, but I wouldn’t call using the most recent 1.5 years of data “cherry picking”. How would first-half 2018 AA data carry more weight than both second-half 2018 AAA and full season 2019 AAA results?
Brian, I dont know how relevant a Sept call up is as a criteria. Competitive teams are often looking for a specific thing such as speed or defense at a specific position. It may have to do with a regular with a nagging injury (often unannounced). Or it could mean everything.
We will have to agree to disagree on that. In this case, the players play the same positions. It is clear that Sosa is ahead of Urias right now.
While technically, you could be right about injury, I would give it less than 5% odds. Urias played a full season of winter ball so he sure was not badly hurt. And he played every inning of Memphis’ final series just prior – including after they were officially eliminated from the playoff race and could no longer even reach .500. I submit if Urias was seriously banged up, he would surely have been rested at that point.
No one, I mean no one, expected Urias to be called up ahead of Sosa. Not even you, I bet.
CC –
I guess I like to wait until players get to the AAA level before
I start to feel confident about anything really regarding their potential. That’s why I’m cautious about using the Urias AA numbers.Call it the Schrock syndrome. Here’s how Max progressed the past 3 years –
2017 (AA) – .321/.379/.801
2018 (AAA) – .249/.331/.627
2019 (AAA) – .275/.366//.747And it’s why I’m concerned about the Urias drop off in productively between AA and AAA.
The danger of using all levels accumulative stats.
No. But that doesn’t mean I think Sosa is definitely the better prospect. As far as injury I guess I wasn’t clear. I meant that Dejong or Munoz could have had a nagging injury and they wanted a specific backup for SS. But I was also talking in general terms.
I consider Sosa a better prospect. Their hit tool is close, but fielding wise, I’ll take Sosa, especially at shortstop, although some say Urias will play shortstop at Memphis. I guess that is assuming Sosa stays in St Louis as a reserve.
Munoz at AAA –
2017 – .289/.316/.414/.730
2018 – .287/.330/.436/.766I may be wrong, but it looks Sosa, Urias, and Munoz are pretty close on the offense side. So the determiner is probably their defense.
So the determiner is probably their defense.
We know that Munoz is not a great defender. Sosa is known to be a pretty good shortstop, and Urias seems to be more of a 2B/utility guy.
Sosa is only better offensively if you consider OPS a better overall hitting stat than wrc+ (which few knowledgeable analyst do).
AA Urias’ wrc+ is about 80% higher than Sosa
AAA Urias’ wrc+ is higher than Sosa’s
AAA 2019 Urias’ wrc+ is higher than Sosa’s
AAA 2019 Urias’ improvement in wrc+ exceeds that of Sosa’s
2020 projections give the edge overall to Urias in wrc+
2020 Zips projections give Urias a 50% edge in OPS+. 50%!!
2020 Zips projections give Urias a substantial edge in projected WAR and nearly a 100% edge on a plate appearance basis! Note: WAR includes a defensive element though we dont know what position they are projecting for him to be playing.
Offensively, I consider it indisputable that Urias is the better offensive player (up to now). The only real argument you could make for Sosa would be that he is younger. Defensively it seems likely that Sosa is superior at least at SS. The question is by how much and rather that holds at 2B/3B as well.
DeJong needs a few days off, and Sosa has to be viewed as the best defensive SS of the three. So unless they find that Edman is more than adequate at SS, which isn’t unlikely to get him more AB’s, then I’d give the likelihood of Sosa making the 26 man much higher than even Munoz.
As long as the middle infielders healths are good, I would keep Sosa in place of Munoz. This would leave one option for Sosa and Munoz for 2021. Injuries and performance in ST may change these plans, but that would be my roster. I think options are important as infield depth is pretty shaky at AA and AAA, especially shortstop. Ascanio is the only true shortstop at or above AA.
In fact, I believe that middle infield and pitching, if available, should be a focus in the 2020 draft.
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