With so many problems facing our nation, if Major League Baseball is focusing its efforts on how it might begin play in 2020 as soon as deemed feasible, could anyone fault them?
In recent days, we have read about (and debated extensively) the merits of all 30 MLB teams playing a shortened 2020 regular season in Arizona, or more recently, in both Arizona and Florida. Though the odds of success may appear to be low, ideas are being considered, at least.
But what about Minor League Baseball? How and when could play begin for 160 affiliate farm teams based across the US?
Let’s consider several scenarios.
Later start in local towns
This is the most optimistic case and least realistic, perhaps.
If the all-clear is sounded by health officials by late summer or early fall, perhaps minor league ball could play a shortened schedule, as well. Local gate revenues are the lifeblood of the minors and some money coming in, even while competing against fall weather and football, would be better than nothing.
In this scenario, MLB might be able to play with rosters that are less expanded than if there were no minors. Injury call-ups could still be available as always. MLB potentially saves money since fewer active players at the highest level means less salary expense and service time accrual.
Obviously, the uncontrollable requirement would be a return to people being allowed to congregate – and people being willing to do to. This remains a huge unknown which is not under the control of any sports officials.
Later but limited start on back fields
Without a full all-clear across the country, starting up local minor league baseball in 2020 seems unlikely. So, why not expand the MLB proposal, instead?
What if baseball could bring in enough minor leaguers to augment the major leaguers such that Triple-A games are played on the back fields of the spring training facilities?
This could allow MLB teams to proceed with fewer additional active players, due to having a ready supply of reserves very close by. There are no salary and service time concerns.
The clear losers in this case are the minor league team owners and local fans.
No minor league games
In resuming on a limited basis, MLB could choose to allow its clubs to bring in their entire 40-man rosters, and perhaps enable them to add non-roster prospects onto the roster, as well.
With a pool of at least 40 healthy players to draw from, all MLB teams should be adequately insulated from injury impact to cover their needs over a shortened season. In this case, there is no pressing need to play any minor league baseball at all in 2020.
The actual implementation for MLB daily play, whether healthy scratches, taxi squad or the like to drop from 40 to 26 (or whatever the active number of players will be), are details that could be worked out in advance.
What about the minor league teams?
A number of reports have highlighted the crucial importance of game revenue to the business model of minor league teams. Scenarios 2 and 3 above – perhaps the most likely ones at this point – could prove devastating to a number of these locally-owned businesses.
While the recently-passed CARES Act would seem a good fit for cash-strapped minor league owners, the contingencies have to be concerning. Loans are only forgiven if the small business keeps its workforce size constant for the next two years.
As an owner, if your team may not be able to continue financially and/or is at risk of being contracted by Major League Baseball in 2021, what do you do?
Negotiations may resume, but will they conclude?
According to a report from The Athletic, within the next few weeks, MLB and Minor League Baseball (MiLB) officials are expected to reopen talks on a new operating agreement for 2021 and beyond. The current Professional Baseball Agreement (PBA), which defines the structure and operating rules for the minors, expires this September 30.
Even before the virus threat surfaced, MLB made it clear it would like to reduce the minor leagues from 160 teams to around 120 starting in 2021. MiLB disagrees, but says it is willing to discuss adjustments.
Against the backdrop of everything else going on, MiLB has reportedly asked MLB to extend the current working agreement a year to give both sides more time to negotiate.
The Athletic report suggests MLB is disinterested in continuing the status quo, however. By simply delaying, MLB can let the virus-driven shutdown across the game weaken MiLB’s resistance to their reduction plans.
Perhaps MLB could offer to throw MiLB a financial life preserver – but only under its terms. MLB holds all the cards at this point.
They have already played one very telling card. By reducing the draft to as few as five rounds, each organization may have 30 to 35 fewer minor leaguers under contract starting this summer.
For the various reasons stated, the quantity of minor league teams to survive 2020 may be low enough to satisfy MLB – though not achieved via the manner originally intended.
Stay tuned
As in all matters regarding baseball in this uncertain time, the situation is tentative and as such, could change dramatically in the upcoming weeks and months. In the meantime, we are left to ponder the “what ifs?”
For Minor League Baseball, the short-term picture is cloudy.
Update
On Monday, April 13, Ballpark Digest reported that MLB is proposing to take a much greater role over operations of Minor League Baseball, with the next meeting between the two sides on April 22.
The article provides additional detail on proposed minor league reconfiguration and notes that MLB is motivated to expand by two teams, with eight new farm teams to follow.
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