photo: Adolis Garcia (Memphis Redbirds)
How could increasing Major League Baseball roster size end up hurting prospects?
It seems counter-intuitive, doesn’t it?
Well, it isn’t. The rub is that starting in 2020, a benefit to be gained in April through August may be more than negated by a substantial loss in September.
Among a series of rule change announcements jointly announced by Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association on March 14 are two that have significant roster implications starting in 2020 – far more significant than they may appear at first blush.
The changes
For decades, each team was allowed a maximum of 25 players on its active roster, but for 2020, the roster size from Opening Day through August 31 will increase from 25 to 26.
In the past, on September 1, each team’s active roster could be expanded from 25 to the maximum of 40, primarily to encourage call-ups of minor leaguers. However, in recent years, this expansion led to growing concerns over inequities in competition, including uneven rosters, more available pitchers leading to more pitching changes, and teams not using the same players who got them into the final month.
The second related change is this. Starting in 2020, the active roster limit from September 1 through the end of the regular season will increase by just two players – from 26 to 28 – down sharply from the prior 40 maximum.
While this will address the overflowing dugouts and perhaps lead to fewer laborious pitching changes in September, I firmly believe that the pendulum has been swung too hard in the opposite direction. The limit of 28 is a very restrictive move which will severely reduce the number of prospects who receive September looks in the major leagues.
Prior to the announcement, a widely-discussed proposal – which was obviously rejected – was to keep the 40-man limit in September as before, but enable teams to declare 28 active players each day.
In my opinion, this 40/28 idea would meet the competitive concerns while enabling prospects to continue to achieve greater big-league exposure. So why was it not chosen?
What is it always about?
I took my concern directly to a high-ranking baseball official. His answer was very enlightening.
He explained challenges such as these:
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- Would all of the up-to-40 players be paid MLB salaries?
- Would all accrue MLB service time or only receive it on the days when they are among the 28 active?
Those points are not substantially different from today. All players called up currently receive MLB pay and service time, whether they play or are glued to the bench. So if anything, adding daily active restrictions could only save teams money.
This explanation (or should I say, non-explanation) turned on the light bulb for me, re-orienting my focus to where it should have been all along – to money.
At the time of the announcement, some media members (including this writer) expressed surprise over the rapid acceptance of the 26th man, as it seemed a significant concession made by the owners without the perception of a corresponding major “give” by the players.
Now, it makes sense – the 26th player may be hard-wired to the 28-in-September limit.
Prospects lose out while the owners may actually save money in the process. And as we have seen time and time again over the years, no one is at the bargaining table representing the interests of the future major league players.
The math is as elementary as it is brilliant – if saving money is the objective, that is.
Why the 28-man limit will be restrictive
For each MLB club, the addition of the 26th player will drive five additional months of expense and service time – from April through August. To correspond, by cutting down September call-ups by at least five players, the financial ledger could roughly balance.
Granted, not all players are brought up on the first, so in reality, more than five fewer September additions would be required to deliver a cost savings. No problem. Many teams, including the St. Louis Cardinals, traditionally have much closer to 40 players than 25 active during the final month.
For example, as 2018 closed, the Cardinals had 35 players from the 40-man roster up with St. Louis. Same in September 2017. So, in the new world, seven of them would not be allowed.
In September 2020, the ramifications of the new rule will be significant – more so than many may yet realize.
Prospects blocked
In many years, teams have established Major Leaguers ready to come off the disabled list, to be added alongside prospects as soon as rosters expand on September 1.
In fact, in 2018, the Cardinals had four front-line players who returned from injury early in the final month – Marcell Ozuna, Kolten Wong, Adam Wainwright and Jedd Gyorko.
So in 2020, faced with that same situation, what would the Cardinals do?
Of course, they want to bring the big-league quartet back in September. In doing so, not only would the club be unable to add any prospects, two less experienced players would actually lose their active roster spots in the final month just to clear room for the established major leaguers (26+4-2=28).
No injury replacements ready
Further, in this new world, from where will replacements come if MLB teams experience a rash of injuries in September? Minor leaguers (unless on playoff teams) are done for the year with the final games on Labor Day.
So, in this scenario, do MLB teams compete in pennant races with fewer active players than their competitors, or bring back others who were already sent home for the off-season? And in the latter case, pitchers will no longer have been throwing regularly and may not be ready to immediately step back into action.
One idea would be for teams to implement a “shadow roster” or “taxi squad”, made up of players who travel with the team and work out to remain ready, but just aren’t active.
Those who back that idea, answer this. Are these players getting paid? Do they receive MLB service time? If so, then just include them in the 40/28. If not, you will need to have a conversation with the Players’ Association, whose rank and file consist of every 40-man roster player in MLB, including these proposed taxi squadders.
OK idea, but bad implementation
These are several concrete examples of why I believe the new “rule of 28” as implemented will be proven to be too restrictive. But for what it is worth, it does look like it could more than balance the financial books.
Yet another victory for the accountants, while prospects take one more hit – and nobody seems to care…
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