photo: Luke Weaver (Scott Kane/USA TODAY Sports Images)
Change is clearly in the air with the St. Louis Cardinals’ starting rotation, currently the National League’s best with a collective 2.99 ERA.
A number of fans have placed Luke Weaver on the bubble, with the perceived weakest hold on his spot among those in St. Louis’ starting five.
I am not among them, however.
With the expected return of Alex Reyes just ahead on Wednesday, expectations for the organization’s no. 1 prospect for the last three years running are sky-high. That is what four totally dominating scoreless rehab outings – one at each of St. Louis’ full-season minor league affiliates – will do.
However, even with Reyes coming back, the rotation logjam is not a major issue – quite yet.
With Carlos Martinez on the disabled list for 17 days and counting, it is John Gant who is expected be bumped by Reyes. (As an aside, who really believed an oblique strain would cause Martinez to miss just one start? C’mon, man!)
When Martinez is eventually ready – unless there is another starting pitching injury in the interim – the math will become a tougher problem to solve – how to fit six into five.
Solely based on season ERA, Weaver draws the negative attention, with the highest mark from among the starting corps – currently at 4.31 through 10 starts.
However, it is not that clear cut.
Looking deeper into the numbers, one can see that Weaver’s story has been that of three distinct seasons in one. His first three starts and most recent three have been exceptional, bookending four substandard ones in the middle.
| Dates | # starts | IP | ERA | H | BB | K |
| 4/1-13 | 3 | 17 1/3 | 2.08 | 12 | 5 | 17 |
| 4/19-5/5 | 4 | 18 | 9.00 | 23 | 10 | 15 |
| 5/11-22 | 3 | 19 | 1.89 | 15 | 3 | 18 |
A quick check of the individual game logs does not indicate a significant variance in his fastball velocity as a potential explanation for the marked increase in hits and walks. In his 10 starts, the average was always between 93.9 mph and 94.7, with his season highs and lows both occurring during his four rough outings.
Whatever it was, that which plagued Weaver seems to be in the rear-view mirror. Most recently, he is pitching deeper into games with a higher strikeout rate, fewer walks and a lower ERA. What about that is not to like?
The (pleasant) problem for the Cardinals is that none of the others warrant removal from the rotation, either.
With six one-run innings on Saturday in Pittsburgh, rookie Jack Flaherty lowered his season ERA to 2.15. The most consistent starter to date, Miles Mikolas, is just behind at 2.24. Michael Wacha’s mark is 2.88, but in his last seven appearances, his ERA is just 2.32.
Some have suggested a six-man rotation. That has its own pros and cons, worthy of discussion another time.
I cannot predict the answer today, but I do believe Weaver deserves to keep his spot.
(Note: His next outing opens the Milwaukee series on Monday afternoon.)
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