photo: Adam Wainwright and Busch Stadium fans (Jeff Curry/USA TODAY Sports)
St. Louis Cardinals fans are excited about Adam Wainwright again – some overly so, in my opinion.
In his three September starts since returning from a four-month disabled list stint, the right-hander has bookended a masterful six scoreless inning, nine-strikeout outing against the Dodgers with two much less impressive four-run appearances of five and 6 1/3 innings duration, respectively.
Still, that one dominant start has some fans calling for the club to re-sign Wainwright for 2019. Beyond the mound results, his veteran leadership, numerous past successes and his status as an MLB career-Cardinal are key opinion-drivers.
How replaceable is Wainwright?
It seems almost unfair to place on Wainwright’s shoulders the upcoming Friday afternoon start in Chicago with the Cardinals reeling and their post-season hopes reduced to a thread. It could mark his 352nd and final regular season appearance for St. Louis, the first of which was in 2005. Yet, that is where fate has placed the 37-year old and his team.
But no matter what happens in his start at Wrigley Field, the harsh reality is that any sustained mound success by Wainwright occurred in the distant past.
I will not outline here the many good rotation alternatives the Cardinals already have under contract for 2019. And if they want a veteran from the 2018 team to return to potentially pitch in long relief and make spot starts next season, I submit they would be better served to re-sign Tyson Ross – or add someone not currently on the roster.
The last time Wainwright provided ace-like production was in his age 32 season, back in 2014. It is also the last time he logged an ERA better than Ross’ career mark of 3.95. The latter is also 5 ½ years younger, though is certainly not a must-sign for next season.
Money expectations
A very important, yet entirely unknown factor in whether Wainwright should be asked back for 2019 is his salary expectation. Even if he took a whopping 50 percent cut, his new pay would be just under $10 million, likely out of sync with his expected contribution. The Cardinals could buy two or three Rosses for that, or more likely, deploy the money more wisely to improve the team elsewhere.
For those who ride the train of wanting to continue to richly reward Wainwright for his many past successes, I submit that debt has already been paid in full – several times over.
Specifically, over the last three years, he has received almost $60 million in return for 4.74 ERA results. Overall in his concluding contract, for that one good full year in 2014 plus the four seasons since – three of which were interrupted by injury – Wainwright has been paid $97.5 million.
So he has been treated very well financially compared to what he has been able to deliver on the mound.
Is Waino really “back” (again)?
Regarding his current performance, I say, “Been there, seen that”. In each of the last few seasons, Wainwright has strung together a few very good starts – leading to the same premature fan celebrations that the “old Waino” was back.
Plausible explanations of pitch-tipping stopped, mechanical adjustments made and/or improved health achieved quickly fell by the wayside, however, as the reality of an inevitable late-career decline returned after these short bursts of goodness.
For example:
July 2016 – Three straight wins, one run allowed over 23 innings. Then came an August ERA of 6.10, and September ERA of 5.05.
May-June 2017 – Four straight wins, one run allowed over 26 1/3 innings. In two of his next three starts, he was charged with nine earned runs each.
The terms to return
As much as I respect all that Wainwright has accomplished over what will one day will be formally recognized as a Cardinals Hall of Fame career, to be asked to pitch for my team in 2019, he would have to accept a very low-base, heavily incentive-laden contract with no promises given.
If Wainwright wants greater assurances – whether dollars or years or role-related – I would make the tough call to shake hands and wish him well as he concludes his storied playing career elsewhere.
Even if that occurs, Wainwright will be back in St. Louis wearing his well-deserved red jacket soon enough.
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Brian Walton can be reached via email at brian@thecardinalnation.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.
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