photo: Sonny Gray (St. Louis Cardinals)
The St. Louis Cardinals are signing Sonny Gray to a three-year, $75 million contract. The deal is awful for a team looking to show its fanbase they mean business in the off season. Here is why the Cardinals will regret this signing.
Sonny Gray is not the answer to the Cardinals pitching woes. He wanted to be closer to home in Tennessee. The Atlanta Braves were interested in him and Truist Park is nearly an hour closer than Busch Stadium. Maybe the Braves weren’t willing to overpay, and the Cardinals are desperate.
The new Cardinals ace is 34 years old, and the club is willing to shell out $25 million a year to a guy who finished 8-8 last season for a division winning Minnesota Twins team. Why did they let him walk? Gray has never won more than 14 games in a season and that was back in 2015. Over the last four seasons, his record sits at 28-25. Hardly what I would call an ace.
People will point to innings pitched, ERA, strikeout rate, walks allowed and home runs surrendered. Brandon Kiley @BKSportsTalk tweeted that the Cardinals were 34-19 when their starters went 6+ innings and allowed fewer than four runs. So, let’s see, Sonny Gray was 22nd in innings pitched in 2023 with 184. With his innings pitched amid his 32 starts, that gets him two outs deep into the sixth. That’s not six plus innings, in fact it’s not even six innings of work on average. Explain how that helps St. Louis. Miles Mikolas threw 201 1/3 innings for St. Louis in 35 starts. One year deal signee Kyle Gibson threw 192 innings with 33 starts and won 15 games. Also newly inked Lance Lynn threw 183 2/3 innings in 32 starts. So, all four worked similarly deep into a game yet Sonny Gray is worth $25 million per? Hmmm.
Gray had a 2.79 earned run average, third in the major leagues last season. His career ERA though is 3.47. He has recorded a sub 3.00 ERA just four times over his 11 seasons and two of those were in his first four years in the bigs. It’s more likely that he will be closer to his career average if not more then to the sub three or even low 3.00 St. Louis may be hoping for from him.
Will strikeouts and walks provide some separation between Gray and the other Cardinals signees? His strikeout totals leave him on the outside of the top 25 in major league baseball. Even Lynn, who threw basically the same number of innings (183 2/3) had more strikeouts (191). Walks allowed is one spot where Gray does shine, having given up just 55 but Gibson, who threw more innings than Gray, had the same number of walks and Lynn is right there with both at 67 walks. Each of their strikeout to walk ratios are very similar so Gray doesn’t really separate himself here as the ace, either.
Maybe the best argument for signing Sonny Gray is that he kept the ball in the park in 2023, allowing just eight dingers. It didn’t hurt that the walls at Target Field are further back and that there is a 23-foot wall in right field. The outfield walls at Great American Ballpark are very similar to Busch Stadium, and there in 2021, Gray gave up 13 of his career-high 19 home runs allowed in a season. Like GABP, there is not a 23-foot wall in right at Busch Stadium to protect Gray and the Cardinals. In seven of his 11 seasons, he allowed 15 or more home runs. There is no reason not to expect his home run totals to rise.
Finally let’s look at how Gray’s 2023 season came to an end. In his final five regular season games, he was 2-3. In three of those five starts he didn’t last beyond the fifth inning. In the postseason, the numbers were not much different. He went 1-1 throwing just nine innings. Pitching in the ALDS with the series tied a game apiece, the veteran right-hander had a stat line that looked like this; 4IP, 8H, 5R, 4ER, 2HR 1BB and 6K. Hardly what one would expect from a pitcher worth $75 million over three years as a free agent.
Sonny Gray is not the answer to the St. Louis pitching problem. If they had rented him for a year like they are renting Gibson and Lynn, that could be acceptable, even at $25 big ones. There are better and younger ace options available, though. Personally, I would rather see the $75 million spent on Michael Wacha, for example, who at least showed in 2023 that he might be back to his former self. They may be wasting it on Sonny Gray.
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