photo: Max Rajcic (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)
Opening his professional career with a bang, Palm Beach right-handed starter Max Rajcic put together the top overall pitching performance in the St. Louis Cardinals system in April.
It is time to select The Cardinal Nation’s Pitcher of the Month. This article covers pitchers across all levels of the St. Louis Cardinals minor league system during April 2023.
As a reminder, this is NOT the “Pitcher of the Month Among Top Prospects”. Every player in the system has an equal chance, with only their performance during the month used to differentiate the best of the best. Age and level, which are key prospect considerations, are not factors here.
Guidelines
To qualify, a pitcher must have thrown at least 10 innings during April. 37 pitchers made the first cut. To reach the list of seven finalists, an ERA below 2.50 was required.
The finalists break out into three distinct groups: one pitcher with an ERA below 0.70, three with ERAs in the range of 1.25 to 1.64, and three hurlers with ERAs between 2.12 and 2.19.
The finalists represent all four full-season levels of the organization, from Low-A Palm Beach up through Triple-A Memphis. Three are starters, three are relievers and one performed in both roles during April.
Counting Stats
In the following table, finalists are listed in ascending ERA order.
| Pitcher | Tm | W | L | ERA | G | GS | CG | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | WHIP |
| Dionys Rodriguez | Peo | 0 | 0 | 0.66 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13.2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 1.32 |
| Max Rajcic | PB | 2 | 1 | 1.25 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 21.2 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 0.60 |
| Ian Bedell | Peo | 1 | 1 | 1.42 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 12.2 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 1.50 |
| Ryan Shreve | Spr | 0 | 0 | 1.64 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 1.73 |
| Kyle Leahy | Mem | 1 | 2 | 2.12 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 1.24 |
| Matthew Liberatore | Mem | 3 | 1 | 2.14 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 33.2 | 25 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 45 | 1.10 |
| Michael McGreevy | Spr/Mem | 3 | 0 | 2.19 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 24.2 | 22 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 1.01 |
(Stats are courtesy of Fangraphs.)
Based on his very low ERA, Peoria’s Dionys Rodriguez appears to stand head and shoulders above the other candidates. The 22-year-old began the season in long relief and stepped into the rotation on April 21. While Rodriguez allowed just one run in 13 innings, a red flag is a walk count higher than both his hits allowed and strikeouts.
As Max Rajcic’s professional career opened with Palm Beach, it could hardly have been any better. He yielded just three runs in three starts, struck out over a batter per inning and walked no one. His WHIP of 0.60 was nothing short of exceptional.
Speaking of exceptional, Chiefs reliever Ian Bedell punched out more than two batters per inning, a major eye-catcher, though his traffic on the bases was a bit high (1.50 WHIP).
In his six starts for Memphis, no. 8 prospect Matthew Liberatore was very strong, though his 2.12 ERA is toward the high end of our finalists. Same with Michael McGreevy. Our no. 5 prospect earned a promotion to Triple-A after three stellar Double-A outings to open 2023.
A dark horse finalist is Redbirds reliever Kyle Leahy, with solid numbers across the board in April.
While it would be easy to anoint Rodriguez and his 0.66 ERA, there is more to his story, evidenced as we dig deeper into the numbers.
Advanced stats
Here are additional statistics from the seven finalists in the same ascending ERA sequence.
| Pitcher | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | AVG | BABIP | WHIP | ERA | FIP |
| Dionys Rodriguez | 13.2 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 0.7 | 0.174 | 0.205 | 1.32 | 0.66 | 4.85 |
| Max Rajcic | 21.2 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 0.169 | 0.222 | 0.60 | 1.25 | 2.57 |
| Ian Bedell | 12.2 | 17.8 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 0.260 | 0.500 | 1.50 | 1.42 | 2.67 |
| Ryan Shreve | 11 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.295 | 0.382 | 1.73 | 1.64 | 3.85 |
| Kyle Leahy | 17 | 10.6 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 0.234 | 0.341 | 1.24 | 2.12 | 2.14 |
| Matthew Liberatore | 33.2 | 12.0 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 0.208 | 0.315 | 1.10 | 2.14 | 2.69 |
| Michael McGreevy | 24.2 | 7.7 | 1.1 | 7.0 | 0.239 | 0.300 | 1.01 | 2.19 | 3.20 |
Rodriguez was clearly playing with fire, with the highest walk rate and lowest strikeout rate among our finalists. His batting average against was strong at .174, but his BABIP of .202 suggests a high rate of good fortune. All that is reflected in his FIP of 4.85, over four runs higher than his actual ERA and worst among our finalists by a considerable margin.
At the other end of the BABIP spectrum are Leahy and Springfield reliever Ryan Shreve, who managed to place in the middle of our finalists despite high BABIPs that hint for potentially even better results ahead. Leahy’s lowest FIP of .214 is another feather in his cap.
None of the finalists approached Bedell’s strikeout rate, though Liberatore’s is also very admirable. After Rodriguez, the walk rates of Bedell and Shreve were on the high side.
McGreevy’s walk rate was exceptional but Rajcic’s 0.0 was impossible to beat.
Speaking of Rajcic, he posted the lowest walk rate, lowest batting average against – and not surprisingly, allowed the fewest baserunners by a considerable margin. The right-hander also posted the best strikeout to walk ratio with no others close.
Rajcic’s ERA was second (to Rodriguez) among finalists and his FIP of 2.57 was also second (to Leahy). His BABIP was low, but not such that it hurts his case substantially.
When considering all results across the board, Rajcic is the clear choice as The Cardinal Nation’s April Pitcher of the Month.
About the winner
Rajcic (pronounced like “magic”) joined the Cardinals organization as their first right-hander taken in the 2023 draft, in the sixth round from UCLA. As a draft eligible sophomore, the 21-year-old received third-round money to sign early, which may better indicate where his talent stacks up.
Like many starters, Rajcic throws four pitches, and mixes them well. Unlike many others, however, he has excellent command. He had good results both starting and closing for the Bruins.
His relatively conservative no. 39 ranking on The Cardinal Nation’s Top Prospect List for 2023 was due in part to Rajcic not appearing in game action after signing last summer. His results to date suggest a rise is coming in our May monthly re-rankings.
Significantly more background on Rajcic is available for TCN members here:
What is next?
On Tuesday, The Cardinal Nation will announce our Player of the Month for April across the system. The Cardinals organization may also name their own selections this week.
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