photo: Preston Guilmet (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)
The first of The Cardinal Nation’s top two monthly awards to St. Louis Cardinals minor leaguers goes to the top pitcher in the system in April. It isn’t who you might think. Our winner is Memphis closer Preston Guilmet.
How fast did this April pass? One month of the 2018 minor league schedule across the St. Louis Cardinals is already on the books.
The purpose of this article is to select the top pitcher in the system during April. Age, level, prospect ranking, and even role are not what matter most. The results during the prior calendar month do.
With a number of pitchers exhibiting success in the first month of the season, the decision was not going to be easy, so I could afford to be particular. To narrow down the candidates to a workable list, here are my criteria:
- ERA at 2.25 or under
- 10 or more innings pitched
- WHIP at 1.00 or less
The latter is fairly stringent – with one runner reaching base via hit or walk being the highest count allowed – yet seven pitchers still qualified in all three areas.
Ones who barely dropped by the wayside would make a good list themselves – Daniel Poncedeleon, Evan Guillory, Edward Mujica, Austin Gomber and John Gant, among others.
Here is where it became really difficult. The very lowest ERAs were posted by the relievers, yet the starters carry a heavier innings load. The one with the highest strikeout to walk rate also posted the poorest ERA, and so on.
The seven are listed in ascending ERA sequence.
| Pitcher | Age | Tm | Lev | W | L | ERA | G | GS | GF | CG | SV |
| Colton Thomson | 25 | PB | A+ | 1 | 1 | 0.71 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Prendergast | 23 | Peo | A | 3 | 0 | 0.75 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Preston Guilmet | 30 | Mem | AAA | 0 | 0 | 1.29 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| Mike O’Reilly | 23 | PB/Spr | A+/AA | 2 | 1 | 1.54 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Walsh | 22 | Peo | A | 1 | 0 | 1.61 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Ellis | 25 | Spr | AA | 1 | 0 | 2.08 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| Jack Flaherty | 22 | Mem | AAA | 3 | 0 | 2.25 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Each finalist did something to stand out over the others. Colton Thomson of Palm Beach logged the lowest ERA (0.71), while Peoria’s Zach Prendergast won three games.
Preston Guilmet was awarded five saves, more than double any other pitcher in the system, and his Memphis teammate Jack Flaherty had the only complete game (over seven innings – not to mention being called up to St. Louis!).
For easier comparison, the pitchers are listed in the same order as above.
| Pitcher | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | WHIP | BB9 | SO9 | SO/W |
| Colton Thomson | 12.2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0.71 | 2.8 | 9.9 | 3.5 |
| Zach Prendergast | 12.0 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1.00 | 1.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 |
| Preston Guilmet | 14.0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0.64 | 1.9 | 12.9 | 6.7 |
| Mike O’Reilly | 23.1 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0.77 | 1.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 |
| Jake Walsh | 22.1 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 0.90 | 3.2 | 10.5 | 3.3 |
| Chris Ellis | 21.2 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0.65 | 1.2 | 8.7 | 7.0 |
| Jack Flaherty | 20.0 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 0.75 | 1.4 | 9.9 | 7.3 |
Mike O’Reilly earned a mid-month promotion and still made the finalists after continuing his results at a higher level. Chris Ellis walked the fewest batters per nine innings while both starting and relieving, but Jake Walsh led the wrong category – highest walk rate, which hurt his strikeout to walk ratio, a stat led by Flaherty, edging Ellis and Guilmet.
Speaking of, the hurler who allowed the fewest baserunners was also the top strikeout rate pitcher. Further, as mentioned earlier, closer Preston Guilmet saved five games for the high-flying Redbirds. Along with the third-best K-to-BB mark, he also registered the third-lowest ERA.
Before we finalize the selection, let’s review a couple of sabermetric stats – BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) and xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching).
| Pitcher | ERA | BABIP | xFIP |
| Colton Thomson | 0.71 | 0.179 | 3.26 |
| Zach Prendergast | 0.75 | 0.286 | 3.90 |
| Preston Guilmet | 1.29 | 0.174 | 3.04 |
| Mike O’Reilly | 1.54 | .243/.191 | 2.39/6.54 |
| Jake Walsh | 1.61 | 0.225 | 3.41 |
| Chris Ellis | 2.08 | 0.170 | 3.53 |
| Jack Flaherty | 2.25 | 0.245 | 3.74 |
All except Prendergast (.286) have BABIPs that are definitely toward the fortunate side. That also bears out in their xFIPs, with all of them coming in above 3.00. However, when all is said and done, Guilmet’s xFIP is lowest of the seven finalists at 3.04.
The 30-year old isn’t going to register on top prospect lists, though he is resilient. Guilmet first reached the majors with Cleveland in 2013, then Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Milwaukee, but was never able to stick, logging a total of only 19 games.
After toiling last year in Japan, the right-hander with the unusual delivery (see lead photo) returned to the US with the Cardinals, but with much less fanfare than fellow import Miles Mikolas.
Working under a minor league contract, Guilmet is doing his best to earn his way back to the big leagues. While his results justify consideration, getting onto the 40-man roster would be an additional and necessary step for Guilmet to join St. Louis’ “Reliever Roulette”.
When the Cardinals organization announces its April Pitcher of the Month, I am guessing that it will not be Guilmet. And if that is the case, it won’t bother me. Any of these seven – as well as several others – could present a solid case for the award, but in my assessment, Guilmet was April’s best.
Congratulations to Preston Guilmet, The Cardinal Nation’s April Pitcher of the Month!
What is next
Check back on Wednesday for the announcement of The Cardinal Nation’s Player of the Month, recognizing the system’s top offensive performer in April.
Thursday update
The Cardinals organization announced its April Pitcher of the Month, Memphis starter Austin Gomber.
Gomber is a top prospect and performed at the highest level of the system. That includes one of, if not the best single-game during April, a 16-strikeout outing on April 23. The lefty deserved his first-ever promotion to St. Louis, but we respectfully beg to differ with the Cardinals’ choice for this particular award.
As noted above, Gomber’s April ERA of 2.45 was bested by all seven of our finalists, plus Redbirds rotation-mate John Gant, as well. Even with the 16 K outing, the 24-year old’s strikeout rate of 9.5/nine innings was in the middle of our pack and his 3.2 walks/nine would have tied for worst among our best of the best.
Gomber’s BABIP of .308 was higher than the seven TCN finalists, but still in the normal range, but his xFIP of 4.39 was worse than that of all seven.
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