photo: Tink Hence (MiLB.TV)
In a FREE article, The Cardinal Nation’s Top 50 prospect countdown for 2026 reaches no. 10 with long time top prospect who hasn’t stayed healthy long enough to reach Triple-A. Is it finally time to move Tink Hence to relief?
Position: Starting pitcher
Age: 23 years old
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight: 6’1, 195 pounds
Acquired: Selected in Competitive Balance Round B, 63rd overall, of the 2020 First-Year Player Draft
Hometown: Pine Bluff, Arkansas
College: none
Opened 2025: Memphis Redbirds injured list (Triple-A)
Primary team in 2025: Springfield Cardinals (Double-A)
Finished 2025: Springfield Cardinals injured list (Double-A)
Prior Top 50 rankings – 2025 #3, 2024 #2, 2023 #3, 2022 #19, 2021 #11
Click on the above photo to be taken to Hence’s player page at The Cardinal Nation, with additional biography and history information.
2025 highlights
| Tm | IP | G | GS | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | FIP | xFIP | BABIP |
| Spr/Peo/PB/FCL | 21.1 | 8 | 8 | 2.95 | 1.22 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 3.80 | 4.18 | 0.255 |
Kyle Reis’ scouting report
Kyle’s ranking – no. 10
All that I can promise the reader is that I am 100% honest with my assessments of prospects. Even though I often seem flippant, I’m doing it intentionally and for effect.
With that warning, I am absolutely exhausted at the thought of having to write about Markevian “Tink” Hence again. I feel like I’ve been writing about him since he was in high school. Well, that’s because I have been, and that’s too long.
If I’m doing the math correctly, this is the sixth time that I’ve had to write about Hence on a top prospect list to start a season. Maybe funny enough, maybe sadly enough, maybe enough is enough, things have hardly changed over those six years. 2025 was another season shortened by arm and body issues. There were times that he looked like an elite pitching prospect. He started to throw more innings. Etc. Etc. Etc. Rinse. Lather. Repeat.
The only real difference in Hence’s 2025 season is that the new pitching brass decided to spend some time, starting before spring training, trying to rebuild Hence from the ground up hoping for more long-term arm health. That didn’t work. Hence didn’t even make it out of spring before suffering a lat strain, then a shoulder impingement later in the year. The other cause is the mechanical changes that the Cardinals tried to make with him which ruined his fastball shape and effectiveness. So that stinks, not just because it hurts his fastball but also because it hurts what the rest of his arsenal does off his fastball.
So, six years in and Hence is more of a project than ever before. Hooray. There’s also been talk about shifting him into a reliever role for the long-term. Whatever. Who cares. Not with that fastball even with velocity, but we’ll see. They’re also continuing to tweak his mechanics, so that’s… cool.
It’s a shame that this is happening to this young man. It’s crazy to think that he is just one full season removed from his best season as a member of the organization, 2024. When Hence was healthy and on the mound, he was a high-velocity, multiple above-average-to-plus off-speed offerings strikeout machine at Double-A.
One of the results from the mechanical adjustments made during 2025 was that Hence lost feel for his changeup, which had consistently been his best off-speed offering. In 2024, he used the changeup as a haymaker to both lefties and righties, and it played beautifully off his often high-90’s but usually mid-90’s fastball.
The other big question about Hence’s arsenal is what became of his curveball. Like with his changeup, the curveball was a strikeout, swing and miss, and chase pitch, but the results and shape backed off in 2025. Again, there are a lot of moving parts as the Cardinals and Hence toy with his mechanics and the shape of his pitches. If the group can get Hence back to some of his 2024 majesty with the curve and changeup, then we’ll be back to cooking with plutonium.
The one positive that came from Hence’s work with the new pitching development brass is that he’s developed a gyro slider that may be a bigger and better part of his arsenal moving forward. Over the years, I’ve been all kinds of mixed up about how to feel about the slider that Hence would flash here and there. Thankfully, his new 2025 slider was the best slider that he’s thrown consistently, and with more velocity. It’s nice that there’s some positivity out of what became another lost season.
My initial plan for writing about Tink Hence was to say, “I’m tired of doing this, here’s Blake Newberry’s write-up from last year because it’s basically the same a year later”. I’m glad that I didn’t, because it’s certainly more complex than that.
The gist with Hence is simple, even if the steps to get him there are going to be nuanced and complex. The Cardinals and Hence are working to rebuild him for long-term health, and if they can get there while rediscovering some of the pitching magic from past seasons then we’ll finally see this supremely talented righty dealing at the Major League level. As is, he’s still as much a work in progress as he’s ever been, but he still flashes enough of his prior magic to keep one excited and hopeful.
And with that, I *THINK* that my whining is over for the Top 50 list! We did it!
Brian Walton’s environmental impact report
Brian’s ranking – no. 8
Background
Entering the COVID-reduced 2020 Draft, then-17-year-old Hence was ranked as the no. 84 draft prospect by MLB Pipeline and no. 123 by Baseball America. The Cardinals did not risk the chance that Hence would make it to the third round, so they used their extra pick, at 63rd overall.
Following the second round, the Cardinals took the University of Arkansas commit with their Competitive Balance B selection. The pool amount for Hence’s selection was $1,076,300 and he received $1,115,000, slightly less than $40,000 over slot.
That 63rd pick was acquired from Tampa Bay along with the 37th overall pick in the trade that also sent prospect pitcher Matthew Liberatore to St. Louis.
In his 2021 debut, the right-hander threw just eight innings in the Florida Complex League, six of which were single-inning outings, allowing eight earned runs. He had an elite strikeout rate of 15.75 per nine innings, but was hittable, with a .306 batting average against and a 1.75 WHIP.
Even during that limited introduction, Hence sat out multiple times including three weeks at one point and he did not pitch after August 18.
Coming out of spring training 2022, Hence did not make Low-A Palm Beach, instead assigned to extended spring training camp. His season debut did not occur with the Beach Birds until May 19.
By July, Hence was named The Cardinal Nation’s Pitcher of the Month. Despite the continued success, he was not allowed to go more than three innings until mid-July and no more than four innings all season. The right-hander remained at Palm Beach for the entire schedule.
Summarizing Hence’s 2022, he was the Cardinals system ERA champion at 1.38, but it was compiled in just 52 1/3 innings. No other qualifier had an ERA lower than 2.65. He was “only” second in strikeout rate at 13.9 per nine and strikeout to walk ratio at 5.4.
Following the season, Hence was recognized by the Florida State League as a Post-Season All-Star, the League’s Pitcher of the Year and perhaps most notably, the FSL’s Prospect of the Year.
Hence’s 2022 continued with a high visibility assignment to the Arizona Fall League. It was no surprise that he was selected to the AFL Fall Stars Game. Working in relief, Hence dominated in the top prospect league, throwing one inning at a time about once per week. In just 8 1/3 relief frames, he recorded a 2.16 ERA. He fanned nine and crafted a 0.96 WHIP.
During the 2022 season, Hence made his first appearance on national top 100 rankings, placing in the 90s in summer updates from Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. Following the season, BA named Hence’s fastball as the best in the system and his pitch metrics were seventh-best among their Top 100. Heading into 2023, Hence ranged from no. 43 to no. 77 in the country according to eight national ranking concerns.
Hence was less decorated in 2023, but his career continued to progress, albeit still slowly. First, he received his first non-roster big-league spring training camp invitation.
As expected, Hence opened the 2023 regular season in the rotation of High-A Peoria, but less than two weeks later, he went on the injured list with an intercostal muscle strain. He sat out almost a month. At the end of June, he was named the Cardinals organization co-Pitcher of the Month.
That strong June led to his July 1 promotion to Springfield. Hence finished his time with the Chiefs with a 2.81 ERA with 46 strikeouts in 41 2/3 innings. A week later, Hence represented the Cardinals in the 2023 All-Star Futures Game in Seattle.
In Double-A, Hence started weekly for the remainder of the season. Over his 12 starts with Springfield, Hence had a 5.47 ERA/4.98 FIP. His peripheral trends were not great, as his strikeout rate was a career low 8.8 per nine innings and his walk rate was a career high 3.6.
For the second consecutive year, Hence was recognized as having the Best Fastball in the Cardinals system, per Baseball America.
To open 2024, his age 21-22 season, Hence received his second St. Louis spring camp invitation. He started the first Prospect Showcase Game and stood out with three strikeouts in two scoreless innings.
Given his uneven Springfield introduction, returning to Double-A to open 2024 was reasonable. Fate again caused him to remain in the Texas League all season.
The slight-of-build right-hander started strongly, then slowly came back after missing most of June and July. His 20 starts in total yielded just 79 2/3 mound innings, but the results were good enough for Hence to be named a Texas League All-Star and the Double-A circuit’s Pitcher of the Year. He was also The Cardinal Nation’s Springfield Starting Pitcher of the Year.
With the qualification bar lowered to 60 innings, Hence finished fourth in the system in ERA (2.71), second in the system in FIP (2.51) and xFIP (2.62), fifth in WHIP (1.07), fourth in strikeout rate (34.1%) and fourth in strikeout-to-walk ratio (25.9%). Hence’s K/9 was an exceptional 12.3, and Texas League batters were held to an average of just .204.
Though he was never placed on the injured list, Hence disappeared from action for several long periods. In the middle of the season, he battled through injuries that were either cramping and weakness in his back and side or tightness and pain in his upper chest/shoulder region. An MRI reportedly indicated nothing serious.
The result was just 4 ⅔ innings total thrown during June and July. In all three starts, he was pulled early due to apparent discomfort.
Oddly, the Cardinals selected him for his second consecutive Futures Game in mid-July. But since he was not throwing in game action for Springfield at the time, he did not play in the Arlington, Texas contest.
In August, Hence basically had to start over rebuilding his pitch count. In his final seven starts of the season, he tossed just 23 1/3 frames, with an exceptional 1.54 ERA, but he averaged only 3 1/3 innings per start.
On September 11, Hence left what turned out to be his final 2024 start after just 29 pitches in 1 1/3 innings, again due to some kind of discomfort. Hence did not pitch again in the final days of the regular season or in the Texas League playoffs.
In their pre-2025 rankings, Baseball America rated Hence as having the “Best Fastball” and “Best Slider” in the Cardinals system. The former was his third consecutive nod.
It was a no-brainer for the Cardinals to add Hence to the 40-man roster in November to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. In an unusual move, the Cardinals promoted him to Memphis during the offseason.
2025 recap
Hence was invited to St. Louis’ camp as a member of the 40-man roster for the first time. In two outings totaling 1 2/3 innings, he was bombed for seven runs, six earned. On March 7, he was one of the first cuts.
On March 10 on the back fields, Hence departed after one inning of his scheduled three-inning outing. A Cardinals official told me the starter was “under the weather”. That was interesting as he did not pitch again in a game for over two months. That was confirmed by his subsequent placement on Memphis’ 60-day IL with what was later said to be a right ribcage strain.
On May 21, Hence made his 2025 debut in a one inning rehab outing with Palm Beach. From there, he toggled between the Beach Birds and the Florida Complex League, then an outing with Peoria. When Hence was activated on June 17, the Cardinals removed him from the Memphis roster and reassigned him to Springfield.
In his first week back, Hence flashed his greatness again, named Texas League Pitcher of the Week after throwing four no-hit innings with one walk and eight strikeouts.
However, the honeymoon was soon over as Hence didn’t last a month on Springfield’s active roster. On July 12, he returned to Springfield’s injured list with what was reported to be a shoulder impingement.
You can see his full-season stats above, which include his five rehab outings. For Springfield, Hence threw just 10 2/3 innings over three starts. Two appearances were scoreless but he was knocked around for five runs in 3 1/3 innings in the other. His Double-A ERA was 4.22.
Hence was the only Cardinals minor leaguer to pitch at four different levels last season. If you count his paper time on Memphis’ IL, he was with all five US affiliates during 2025. That is unusual, but far from ideal.
According to Baseball America, Hence was replaced as having the Best Fastball and Slider in the system by 2025 draft picks Liam Doyle and Tanner Franklin.
After ranking in the pre-season Top 100 prospect rankings from every major national outlet, by the end of the season, Hence fell off the lists of BA and MLB Pipeline.
2026/Future outlook
Future Value: 45
Role: 4/5 starter/low set up
Risk: High
I am combining the normally separate 2026 Outlook and Future Outlook sections into one because I (still) firmly believe the time is now for Hence.
To recap, he was drafted five and a half years ago, with fellow high schoolers Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn. Hence pitched in the Arizona Fall League in 2022 and was named to the Futures Game back in 2023 and 2024. He has been at Double-A for 2 ½ years. His major successes are in the rearview mirror while others pass him and he drops in everyone’s prospect rankings.
As the 2026 season opens, Hence will still yet to have thrown his first pitch for Memphis, let alone St. Louis.
So, how can the idea of Hence starting in the majors be anything but high risk?
His upside also remains high, but not as high as it used to be. Simply put, how could Hence ever throw 100-plus pitches every fifth day and log 150 to 180 innings in a season as expected from a top of the rotation starter on the game’s biggest stage when he has never reached 100 pitches or innings in five years of trying in the minors?
The time is past to do something different and maybe the Cardinals are finally realizing it.
At the Winter Meetings, Chaim Bloom said that the Cardinals had internal conversations about whether to move Hence from starting to relief, but he did not share if a decision was made.
Despite Hence’s track record warning me otherwise, I will once again be too optimistic and suggest that as a reliever, he might stay healthy and productive long enough to reach St. Louis in the second half of 2026.
The reality is that Hence is running out of time. 2027 will be his last allowable minor league option year. Maybe with a different approach, the Cardinals can still get something from the very talented pitcher.
MLB debut: 2026
Minor league options remaining: 2
Our 2025 Top 50 series continues
To see the entire list of top Cardinals prospects, grading scales and remaining article schedule, click here. This includes the Top 50 countdown and 10 in-depth, follow-up articles breaking down the list.
50 Days, 50 Nights, 50 St. Louis Cardinals Prospects for 2026
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