photo: Brycen Mautz (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)
The Cardinal Nation’s Top 50 prospect countdown for 2025 reaches no. 40 with a lefty who after making an adjustment to his offerings at High-A, finished the 2024 regular season strongly. Free report!
Position: Starting pitcher
Age: 23 years old
Bats/Throws: L/L
Height/Weight: 6’4, 209 pounds
Acquired: Selected in the second round, 59th overall, in the 2022 First-Year Player Draft
Hometown: San Diego, CA
College: University of San Diego
Opened 2024: Peoria Chiefs (High-A)
Primary team in 2024: Peoria Chiefs (High-A)
Finished 2024: Peoria Chiefs (High-A)
Prior Top 50 rankings – 2024 #16, 2023 #13
Click on the above photo to be taken to Mautz’ player page at The Cardinal Nation, with additional biography and history information.
2024 highlights
| IP | G | GS | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | FIP | xFIP | BABIP |
| 121.2 | 24 | 24 | 5.18 | 1.45 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 4.86 | 4.01 | 0.329 |
Blake Newberry’s scouting report
Blake’s ranking – no. 41
(current grade/future grade)
| FB | SL | CH | CB | Command | FV |
| 40/45 | 50/55 | 40/50 | 40/45 | 40/55 | 35 |
Brycen Mautz has always felt like a pitcher who would eventually transition to the bullpen. He was known as a sinker/slider specialist coming out of college but the Cardinals seemed to have hope that he could develop his changeup into a viable third pitch.
That didn’t materialize in Mautz’s first season of 2023 or much of his second season, either. But he started tinkering late in 2024 and into the Arizona Fall League, which has led to a completely revamped changeup. The pitch has gone from being well below average to at least average and possibly above average depending on how much feel Mautz can develop for it.
Previously, Mautz’s changeup averaged 8.2 inches of induced vertical break and 14 inches of run. In the AFL, his changeup has been more in the 2-4 IVB range and has reached over 20 inches of run with some consistency. It’s basically a brand-new pitch and that’s huge for Mautz as it may not only help him remain a starter going forward but also give him a weapon to use versus right-handers, who put up an OPS of .890 against him in 2024.
Even though I have slid Mautz down drastically in my rankings this year (last year I had him ranked #17), I think Mautz has every chance to rise back up if he can prove that he has feel for this new changeup shape.
His curveball is still a below average offering, but his sinker and his slider, though not having great measurements from a stuff perspective, have continued to miss bats. The sinker is particularly lively to the arm side and the slider is more of a gyro offering that lefties have really struggled against.
I have Mautz just outside my personal top 40 because while I am hopeful about what his improved changeup could mean for him, I also recognize that he has a long way to go toward overcoming his steep lefty/righty splits and establishing his changeup as a true third pitch that he uses more than 20% of the time and puts in the zone consistently.
Still, after a difficult season for Mautz, he really added some promise back into his profile in the fall.
Summary: Mautz’s sinker and slider combination would certainly play out of the bullpen, but his changeup has come a long way and could prove to be a pitch that allows him to stay in the rotation.
Brian Walton’s environmental impact report
Brian’s ranking – no. 39
Background
Between college lefties Cooper Hjerpe in the first round and Pete Hansen in the third, the Cardinals grabbed University of San Diego junior lefty Brycen Mautz in the second round of the 2022 draft.
As a freshman in the shortened 2020 season, the San Diego native threw just 10 innings, with eight strikeouts but nine runs allowed. As a redshirt freshman in 2021, Mautz was a swingman, making eight relief appearances and five starts. In 27 frames, he fanned 26 and improved his ERA to 4.67.
Following the 2021 college season, he pitched in relief in the summer Northwoods League showcase and posted a 2.08 ERA in just over 30 innings.
A full-time starter in 2022, Mautz showed considerable improvement. His strikeout rate jumped from a so-so 8.7 K/9 to a strong 12.8 K/9 (14th nationally). He also cut his walk rate by more than half, improving from 4.7 BB/9 to 2.2 BB/9. His 5.86 strikeout to walk ratio led the West Coast Conference (WCC) and ranked 28th nationally.
In 2022, Mautz led the WCC in strikeouts with 129, ranking 11th in the country. He logged a 10-2 record in a team-high 15 games started and 90 2/3 innings pitched.
Carrying an ERA over four for much of 2022, Mautz closed his final collegiate season on a high note. His final ERA dropped to 3.87 after he held national powerhouse Vanderbilt to one run over seven innings with five strikeouts in the NCAA Regionals.
Coming into the July 2022 draft, Baseball America pegged Mautz as their 95th ranked prospect while MLB Pipeline had him ranked 69th among eligible players. After his selection at 59th overall, Mautz came to terms for $1.1 million, 12% under his slot value of $1,246,200.
The Cardinals used the savings of just under $150,000 (plus extra) to sign sixth-rounder Max Rajcic. Standing on its own, Mautz’ $1.1 million bonus received is still end of second-round money, so his terms were reasonable.
With Low-A Palm Beach, Mautz made his professional debut in April 2023, and he remained with the Beach Birds for his entire rookie campaign.
He got out of the gates quickly, earning the Pitcher of the Week award in the Florida State League in mid-April and repeated the honors in late July. Shortly after, Mautz was named the Cardinals organization Pitcher of the Month based on a 2.05 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and a .141 batting average against over 22 innings and four starts.
His low point of 2022 immediately followed his high point. Coming off a streak of 23 2/3 scoreless innings that ran into early August, Mautz was touched for 10 runs, nine earned, in his next five innings between two starts. He was skipped over his next rotation turn and did not pitch in game action between August 18 and September 3.
Following his standout July, he made just five starts in August and September, averaging fewer than four innings per outing. His ERA was 5.89 ERA over his final 18 1/3 frames.
During 2023, Mautz threw 104 innings with a 3.98 ERA and a 3.65 FIP that was fifth in the Cardinals organization. His 23 starts tied for third in the system. Mautz’ strikeout rate was just under 10.0 per nine innings but his free pass rate was 3.9 per nine. That latter concern was pronounced against left-handed batters, who walked at a 5.5 per nine clip.
2024 recap
As expected, Mautz made the step up to High-A Peoria for 2024. Less expected was that he would remain in the Midwest League all season long. Mautz was dependable, making 24 starts, one more than in 2023, and tied for fourth-most in the system. His 121 2/3 innings thrown topped his 2023 total by 17 2/3 frames.
Mautz’ 2024 ERA was 5.18 (FIP 4.86), with a major concern an increase in home runs allowed from four in 2023 to 20 in 2024. His rate of 1.48 per nine innings was highest among qualified pitchers in the Cardinals system.
However, his late-season story is one of significant improvement. Over his initial 19 outings, through July, his ERA was 5.86, but over his final five starts in August and September, his ERA was 3.19, including just two home runs allowed. That surge was highlighted by a career-high 12 strikeouts on August 20.
Brycen Mautz new career high, 12 strikeouts 🔥
– – –#peoriachiefs pic.twitter.com/Xi0ymceAQ3— Peoria Chiefs (@peoriachiefs) August 21, 2024
Perhaps what fueled the improvement was a combination of his new offering as Blake described, along with a greater familiarity with High-A hitters.
To be their designated starting pitcher in the Arizona Fall League, the Cardinals decided to deploy a younger, less experienced arm, Ixan Henderson, over Mautz. Perhaps Mautz’ regular season workload, the eighth-most innings pitched in the system, was another factor in him working out of the pen in the desert.
Against better hitters than he had likely ever faced before, Mautz was unable to carry his late season improvement into his shorter AFL bursts.
In the desert, he posted an 8.10 ERA with 11 strikeouts, and seven walks. In two separate outings in the final week, Mautz gave up three runs on three hits in two innings. Despite the high ERA, he kept the ball in the park in his 10 AFL innings over eight bullpen appearances.
2025 outlook
As we all know, the pyramid narrows as players advance. If their results do not keep pace, their role changes. A struggling starter becomes a reliever. An ineffective reliever is released, etc.
I am not suggesting that Mautz’ career is in jeopardy, or even that the move to the pen he made for the AFL is necessarily permanent. After all, four of the five assignees to the desert were primarily starters in the 2024 regular season.
But I am wondering how long the Cardinals will let Mautz continue to start given the increasing competition for rotation spots. That pressure will be increased if everyone else is healthy in the spring.
Springfield could have some breathing room if Tink Hence and Tekoah Roby are promoted to Memphis to open 2025. My best guess is that the former will do it, but the latter may need more Double-A time. Another factor is the health of Cooper Hjerpe, who should return to the Springfield rotation if healed.
Also looking to make the move upward are Mautz’ Peoria rotation mates Pete Hansen, Inohan Panaigua and Hancel Rincon, all of whom had a considerably better 2024 in High-A than did Mautz.
However, Mautz has been durable and dependable, making every start for both of his professional seasons. Several more heralded pitchers cannot match that very basic requirement – to answer the bell every fifth day.
Future outlook
Future Value: 35
Role: Up/down depth/middle relief
Risk: High
The time has come for Mautz to make his move, building upon his gains in his final 10 starts of 2024 and putting his AFL results aside. 2025 is his final season before becoming Rule 5 eligible. Pitching meaningful innings with positive results at Double-A will be crucial to his protection decision.
Regarding Mautz’ ultimate role, his relief history is known as are the current limitations of his repertoire. Still, I can’t imagine the Cardinals drafted him in the second round with a bullpen future in mind as their “Plan A”. However, it may soon be time without a major uptick in performance that “Plan B” becomes necessary.
Ultimately, Mautz’ future will be defined by how well he can refine his offerings. If as a reliever, his risk would be “moderate,” but since he is still a starter, it is “high”. With an early move to the bullpen, his MLB debut could perhaps occur in late 2026. As a starter, maybe 2027.
MLB debut: 2027
Rule 5 eligible: 2025
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Our 2025 Top 50 series continues
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50 Days, 50 Nights, 50 St. Louis Cardinals Prospects for 2025
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Brian Walton can be reached via email at brian@thecardinalnation.com. Follow Brian on X/Twitter.
Follow Blake Newberry on X/Twitter @bt_newberry.
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