photo: Ian Bedell (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)
The Cardinal Nation’s Top 50 prospect countdown for 2025 reaches no. 15 with a former Mizzou right-hander. Will Ian Bedell work his way into the big-league mix or become the next Connor Thomas? Free report!
Position: Starting Pitcher
Age: 25 years old
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight: 6’2, 214 pounds
Acquired: Selected in the fourth round, 122nd overall, of the 2020 First-Year Player Draft
Hometown: Davenport, Iowa
College: Missouri
Opened 2024: Springfield Cardinals (Double-A)
Primary team in 2024: Springfield Cardinals (Double-A)
Finished 2024: Memphis Redbirds (Triple-A)
Prior Top 50 rankings – 2024 #15, 2023 #37, 2022 #21, 2021 #26
Click on the above photo to be taken to Bedell’s player page at The Cardinal Nation, with additional biography and history information.
2024 highlights
| IP | G | GS | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | FIP | xFIP | BABIP |
| 107.2 | 21 | 19 | 4.85 | 1.22 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 5.56 | 4.75 | 0.243 |
Blake Newberry’s scouting report
Blake’s ranking – no. 17
(current grade/future grade)
| FB | SL | CB | CH | CT | Command | FV |
| 45/50 | 45/50 | 40/45 | 45/55 | 40/45 | 45/50 | 40 |
Ian Bedell is a tough pitcher to evaluate. On paper, he didn’t have a great 2024 season. He particularly struggled in Triple-A, but his Double-A K-BB% was quite good at 22.4%. His problem at the lower level was simply the long ball, which isn’t uncommon for a Texas League pitcher.
But Bedell completely fell apart in Triple-A and in a not unrelated move was left exposed to the Rule 5 Draft. His profile is a bit weird but there are things to like and things that are more mediocre.
Bedell’s four-seam fastball is a bit uncommon in the sense that it’s more of a horizontally oriented pitch than vertically oriented. It gets 15.2 inches of induced vertical break from a 5.84 ft release, which is certainly underwhelming, but the pitch also gets 13.6 inches of arm side run on average. That is well outside the norm for most pitchers.
His four-seamer is also a weird pitch in the sense that Triple-A hitters really teed off it, putting up a .404 wOBA and 94 mph average exit velocity. Yet they whiffed at a 22.2% clip, which is more than acceptable for a pitcher’s fastball.
With that kind of profile, I am very curious what a two-seamer would look like out of Bedell’s hand as he’s a pitcher who really excels at pronation.
His pronation bias gives him natural ability to shape his changeup in an effective way. He has not leaned on his changeup heavily, but he is able to get good vertical deviation off his fastball to go with 14-16 inches of running life on average. With some additional development, his changeup could really start to stand out.
Bedell’s breaking balls, on the other hand, aren’t as impressive due to his struggles to get consistent glove side break. Baseball Savant has him throwing a slider and curveball but the profiles or those pitches are more like a cutter and a gyro slider so that’s what I’m calling them. Interestingly, this means that Bedell has pocketed the curveball from his collegiate days and the earlier portion of his professional career.
The cutter struggles to get across the vertical axis into glove side break territory and that limits its effectiveness while the gyro slider is a bit slow at 80 mph for its lack of movement. I’m not a huge fan of either of these pitches and neither played particularly well in Triple-A. The gyro slider was around an average pitch and the cutter was hit around a bit.
Bedell has natural traits that make me think he could be a solid starter with some tinkering and I’m really curious to see what he looks like after making adjustments in the 2024-2025 offseason.
One other item of note is that Bedell’s fastball was sitting 91-92 in Triple-A but there have been outings in which it has been 94-96. If he can get to that higher velocity more consistently, then his profile would get a huge boost.
Summary: Ian Bedell is an intriguing starter with solid arm-side moving offerings, but his glove side breaking pitches need some tweaking if he is going to be an effective major league starter in the future.
Brian Walton’s environmental impact report
Brian’s ranking – no. 15
Despite an up and down 2024, Bedell’s ranking did not change from year to year, remaining at number 15 in his fifth year in our Top 50.
Bedell is no longer the slowest moving member of the loaded 2020 draft class in which Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn and Alec Burleson have established themselves as major leaguers. During 2024, he passed Tink Hence, another promising arm slowed by injury, but his time window is closing.
Background
Hailing from Davenport, Iowa Central High School, Bedell was an elite prep prospect nationally in 2018. He was expected to go off the draft board early as a prep senior.
Instead, Bedell reclassified, skipping his senior year of high school to enroll early at the University of Missouri. Though he did not impress in limited action as a freshman, his fortunes took a major upturn in 2019.
As a sophomore, Bedell dominated in relief, posting a 1.56 ERA. He followed it up with a starting and starring role in the summer Cape Cod League, crafting a 0.59 ERA with 36-to-3 strikeout to walk count in 24 ⅓ innings. That led to his selection as the 2019 CCL Pitcher of the Year.
With heightened expectations, Bedell moved into Mizzou’s rotation as a junior but the 2020 season was quickly shortened by COVID. He made just four starts, compiled a 3.70 ERA and registered strong 35-to-4 K/BB counts. He became one the youngest college players (20 years, 9 months) in the draft pool, but that significant age advantage has since been lost due to his subsequent injury problems.
Despite Bedell having just one full college season under his belt, and that as a reliever, plus the Cape success, the Cardinals gave Bedell a hefty signing bonus of $800,000. That was $331,000 above his slot value and equivalent to early third-round money. It was the Cardinals’ second highest overslot payment in 2020, after Winn.
His professional debut occurred in 2021. As spring training concluded, he received an aggressive assignment to High-A Peoria, but his season was over almost as quickly as it began. Bedell threw 68 pitches over 2 2/3 innings before being placed on the injured list on May 13.
In essence, he also lost the 2022 season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. By mid-August, he was finally ready to go, assigned to the Florida Complex Cardinals and then Low-A Palm Beach to ramp up in rehab mode. He made five outings with mixed results before being shut down on September 5.
Finally healthy coming into 2023 and ready to fully resume his career, Bedell returned to High-A Peoria, from where it had been interrupted by injury two years prior.
Bedell didn’t open among the starting five, as he ramped up his workload in long relief early before transitioning into the starting rotation in May. He quickly established himself as one of the most reliable arms on a Peoria club that reached the playoffs for the first time since 2018.
Bedell put together a season that culminated with Midwest League Pitcher of the Year honors as well as The Cardinal Nation’s nod as Peoria Starting Pitcher of the Year.
In 27 appearances including 19 starts, he logged a 2.44 earned run average, the lowest among any MWL hurler with at least 95 innings pitched. Bedell’s batting average against was a stingy .218.
Among all pitchers in the Cardinals system throwing at least 40 innings, Bedell had the lowest ERA, was third in FIP (3.50) and xFIP (3.72) and fourth in WHIP (1.15) but was not among the organization leaders in any key counting stats.
Coming off nine days rest, Bedell took the Game 2 loss in the MWL West Division playoffs. He was pulled with no outs in the fourth inning after yielding six hits and five runs.
All told, Bedell’s 2023 was a clear success, but the organization was careful with him. He went beyond four frames in just four of 27 appearances all year long. Further, none of his “longer” outings occurred after July 8. Normally, with a starter building up after injury, one would expect starts to go longer as the season progressed, but for Bedell, the Cardinals did the opposite, dialing back his workload in the second half.
A pitcher’s stats are going to look better when he is pulled after just four innings, before he must face a lineup a third time and potentially gets deep into jams that he must find a way to work out of or pay the price.
That fall, the Cardinals chose not to add him to the 40-man roster. That turned out to be the right decision, as Bedell was not taken in the Rule 5 draft.
2024 recap
Blake is absolutely right. Bedell is a tough nut to crack.
After his managed success in High-A in 2023, Bedell made the Double-A rotation coming out of spring training. He was promoted to Triple-A on June 21, but that felt rushed, more based on injury backfill need above than his 4.73 ERA/4.59 FIP with Springfield. At least, he was showing improvement at the time.
Ian Bedell set a new career-high with 11 strikeouts today without issuing a walk.
In his last four starts: 24.1 IP, 3 ER, 36 K, 1.11 ERA 🤯 pic.twitter.com/JyjAyz0pbW
— Springfield Cardinals (@Sgf_Cardinals) June 9, 2024
Bedell’s apparent lack of readiness for the International League showed as he posted a 5.45 ERA in his first eight Memphis starts, including nine home runs allowed and 22 free passes issued in 38 innings.
Stepping back, there can be no argument that Bedell’s ERA essentially doubled from his 2.44 mark at Peoria in 2023 to 4.85 between Springfield and Memphis this past year. His 5.56 FIP in 2024 does not offer great encouragement, either.
However, there were also aspects of Bedell’s 2024 that were very similar to his solid 2023 at Peoria. They include WHIP (1.22 in 2024), batting average against (.220), strikeout rate (9.2 per nine innings) and ground-to-fly ball ratio (0.72).
Not all indicators moved in the right direction, though. His walk rate rose from 3.2 to 3.6 per nine and his home run rate essentially tripled, at just short of 2.00 per nine in 2024. In fact, his 1.83 mark was the highest in the Cardinals system among pitchers who threw at least 40 innings.
Then there is his ever-present injury concern. In 2024, the Cardinals did not artificially limit his innings as they did in 2023, but the bottom-line result was comparable as he missed over six weeks on the injured list late in the season.
Despite being out from August 5 until September 22, Bedell still pitched a career-high 106 2/3 innings. Another positive arising from the negative is that he was able to come off the injured list to start Memphis’ final game of the season. He threw one scoreless inning.
An even more encouraging development would have been if the Cardinals had sent Bedell for more work in the Arizona Fall League, but that did not occur.
The combination of his injury track record, his managed workload and just 43 innings of Triple-A experience heading into his age 25 campaign made him a low odds possibility to contribute at the Major League level for the entire 2025 season. As such, he was again left unprotected and was not selected in the Rule 5 draft for the second consecutive year.
2025 outlook
Bedell should receive his first-ever invitation to St. Louis’ spring camp in 2025. From there, it seems a relative certainty that he will return to Memphis. However, his role is less clear.
Despite his “incumbent” status in the Redbirds’ rotation, the influx of new contenders joining other returnees means there is no guarantee that Bedell will be among the Triple-A starting five on Opening Week.
Right now, I have newcomer Roddery Muñoz, Quinn Mathews, Sem Robberse and Gordon Graceffo, plus Tink Hence up from Springfield, as my projected Memphis rotation. That would push current starters Drew Rom, Zack Thompson and Bedell to relief.
Further, Muñoz, Robberse, Graceffo and Thompson all have 40-man roster spots, putting Bedell at an even greater disadvantage to fight through the candidates to have a chance as even a spot starter with St. Louis.
The best route seems to be to put Bedell in the bullpen. Recalling his strong results as a college reliever, he could still have a high career floor working in shorter bursts, and it might relieve some of the workload and injury pressure.
Future outlook
Future Value: 40
Role: Middle relief
Risk: Moderate
Time is getting tight for Bedell in the Cardinals organization. If he doesn’t reach St. Louis by the end of the 2025 season and isn’t placed on the 40-man by then, he will reach minor league free agency this coming fall, just after turning 26.
In his limited months remaining, it would be very difficult for Bedell to fight his way to the top of the pecking order for a legitimate starting chance with St. Louis.
For these reasons, I am suggesting the bullpen move now. The Cardinals should use Bedell’s last minor league season to determine if he can contribute as a reliever and earn a 40-man spot. The latter step would give the organization three more years of control.
A professional scout sees it similarly.
“I like him, but he does not have a ton of stuff,” the evaluator said. “He is probably going to be the new Connor Thomas long guy.” (Former starter Thomas had the most appearances of any pitcher in the Cardinals system in 2024 before being selected by the Milwaukee Brewers in the Rule 5 Draft.)
MLB debut: 2026
Rule 5 eligible: 2023 and 2024 (not selected)
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