TCN 2024 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #45 – Matt Koperniak

photo: Matt Koperniak (Palm Beach Cardinals)

At no. 45 in The Cardinal Nation’s prospect countdown for 2024 is an underrated outfielder who does everything well. Matt Koperniak has reached Memphis with a ceiling of a fourth outfielder in the majors. FREE article.

Matt Koperniak

Position: Outfielder
Age: 25 years old
Bats/Throws: L/R
Height/Weight – 6’0/200
Acquired: Signed as a non-drafted free agent on June 14, 2020

Hometown: Williamstown, Massachusetts

Opened 2023: Springfield Cardinals (Double-A)
Highest level team in 2023: Memphis Redbirds (Triple-A)
Finished 2023: Memphis Redbirds (Triple-A)

Prior Top 50 rankings – 2023 #41, 2022 #35

Click on the above photo to be taken to Koperniak’s player page at The Cardinal Nation, with additional biography and history information.

Link to Koperniak’s career stats

Blake Newberry’s scouting report

Blake’s ranking – no. 53

(current grade/future grade)

Hit Power Field Arm Run FV
45/55 35/40 50/50 50/50 50/50 35
AVG OBP SLG OPS HR SB CS BB% K%
.287 .362 .437 .799 18 11 6 10.4% 15.5%
ISO wRC+ GB% LD% FB% Pull% Cent% Oppo%
.150 123 (AA)

97 (AAA)

 47.1% (AA)

50.3% (AAA)

 22.5% (AA)

23.9% (AAA)

 30.4% (AA)

25.8% (AAA)

 40.4% (AA)

41.7% (AAA)

 26.0% (AA)

24.8% (AAA)

 33.7% (AA)

33.4% (AAA)

Matt Koperniak is another who deserves more love than I am giving him. He’s not the most exciting prospect in the world but he does a lot of things well and certainly deserves a spot in the top 50, and maybe even the top 40, so Brian’s ranking is a much better representation of his talent than mine.

Koperniak doesn’t really excel in one area but he’s also not bad in any, either. He doesn’t have a ton of power, but he does have some. He makes a lot of contact. He’s not a super disciplined hitter but he doesn’t chase a ton. He’s not a great outfielder but he’s solid.

He fits into the greater-than-the-sum-of-his-parts mold by simply doing everything well.

The big weakness in his game is against left-handed pitchers but the left-handed hitter made big strides in that area and finished 2023 with a .772 OPS against same-sided pitchers. Now that mostly seems to be a few extra singles dropping his way as he still showed very little power when batting at a platoon disadvantage so I’m not sold on the fact that Koperniak’s newfound success against lefties will stick.

Either way, though, it’s a good sign and a big step up from 2022 when Koperniak only OPSed .595 against lefties.

The other weakness in Koperniak’s game is a general lack of power as his average exit velocity (86.5 mph) and max exit velocity (108.2 mph) leave a lot to be desired. Still, he managed to slug 18 home runs in 2023 so he does have enough juice to clear the fence, mostly on the pull side.

I suspect that those exit velocity numbers are weighed down by his at-bats against lefties. Still, that’s not enough power for me to give him better than a 40. He’s maybe a 45 but I wouldn’t go above that.

The real strength of Koperniak’s game is his contact profile and it helps make up for his lack of high-end pop. The lefty rarely swings and misses on pitches inside the zone and does a good job of hitting breaking balls and changeups as well as fastballs. It’s a solidly above average hit tool that doesn’t have any significant susceptibility. It’s also the only tool I’m willing to grade out as better than average.

I especially love how Koperniak is able to drop down and hit the low pitch, and his ability to pull his hands through an inside pitch is also impressive. He’s adept at using the first base line or the hole between the right-side infielders when pitchers try to come in on his hands.

Here are a few examples to show what I mean. I’ll start with him hitting the low pitch:

Now, here’s an example of him pulling his hands through the inside pitch and shooting it to the pull side:

The 25-year-old does this a lot. He’s also very good at sitting on breaking balls and offspeed pitches and taking them the other way or up the middle. His ability to identify those pitches out of the hands and sit back on them makes him an effective hitter even when he gets behind in the count or when pitchers try to pitch him backwards.

Here’s a few examples (note the 1-2 count in this first video):

Also, the second video reminded me that Koperniak loves to hit home runs to the deep right-center gap. He pulls most of his homers but it’s not uncommon to see him go where he did in that video.

Defensively, Koperniak played mostly left field but saw some time in center field as well. He isn’t the quickest player, but he usually (though not always) gets good reads, takes good routes, and gets a good jump. That helps him be a dependable, solidly average outfielder and his ability to play all three spots and hit right-handed pitching does give him the chance to be a fourth or fifth outfielder depending on how well he continues to hit.

Here’s an example of his arm which I’m rating as a 50 but is right on that average to above average spectrum.

The deeper I get into this scouting report, the more I regret ranking Koperniak so low (and Chandler Redmond too for that matter). There just aren’t a lot of weaknesses. He doesn’t really excel anywhere (as emphasized by his lack of a plus tool) but he’s just solid across the board and can even play some center field. That helps his profile.

The Cardinals have been effective at churning out players with this kind of a profile in years past and I wouldn’t be shocked if Koperniak reaches St. Louis and even plays his way into some kind of a fourth outfielder or bench outfielder role in the majors.

Summary: Koperniak’s all around game is highlighted by an above average hit tool but his lack of weaknesses and ability to play some center field makes him an option as a big league fourth outfielder.

Future Value: 35
Role: AAAA player/reserve
Risk: Medium

Brian Walton’s environmental impact report

Brian’s ranking – no. 38

Background

Koperniak was a two-time all-conference first-teamer at Division III Trinity College in Connecticut and had also stood out in two summers in the New England Collegiate Baseball League (NECBL).

Though Koperniak is accurately listed as a non-drafted free agent, one should remember that due to COVID, his draft class consisted of only five rounds. Had 2020 been a normal draft of 20 rounds, he almost certainly would have been selected.

Opening his professional career in 2021 at High-A Palm Beach, Koperniak was overshadowed by top prospects Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn but was highly successful in his own right. The left-handed hitter’s slash line was .322/.443/.470/.913. Impressively, his walk rate was 13.2% versus a strikeout rate of 14%. In his 58 games, he posted a very high BABIP of .367, however, suggesting some good fortune in his outcomes.

At the start of August, Koperniak was promoted to Peoria. Just a few days later, his immediate fortunes improved further. The roster of Double-A Springfield was decimated due to a COVID outbreak and Koperniak was among those dispatched to Missouri to help out. As a result, his stint with the Chiefs was just four games.

To conclude the season, his slash line with Springfield was much more down to earth as he slashed .271/.326/.391/.717 in 33 games. Koperniak held his strikeout rate constant (13.9%) but his Double-A walk percentage of 6.3 was just half his Low-A rate. Still, his play was good enough that he was not returned to Peoria and remained in Double-A.

Following the season, Koperniak received The Cardinal Nation’s recognition as our 2021 Palm Beach Player of the Year. Though other contenders like Walker and Winn had moved ahead in the system more quickly, Koperniak’s results made him a worthy selection.

In fact, only former first rounder Walker was better among Cardinals first-year players in 2021. Koperniak’s wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) of 135 was second to Walker’s 151. It was the fourth best of all hitters in the organization. Brendan Donovan at 134 was just behind.

Overall, Koperniak tied for fifth in the system with seven outfield assists while playing all three positions. His .306 batting average only trailed Walker among Cardinals farm players and his .405 on-base mark was second in the system. He was one of eight Cards minor leaguers to collect more than 100 hits. Of his 101 hits, 25 went for two bases, tying him with Walker for third in the farm system.

For 2022, Koperniak returned to Springfield and spent the entire season there other than a brief fill-in period with Memphis. He had a solid year, though not as good as his 2021.

Koperniak finished strongly, with a Texas League Player of the Week award in August and was the system-wide August Player of the Month as named by both the Cardinals organization and The Cardinal Nation. His season highlight was on August 9 when he had the first cycle by a Springfield player in 11 years.

Overall, in 2022, Koperniak slashed .288/.359/.442/.801 with a 106 wRC+, 6% above Texas League average. His batting average was third on the Double-A club and he was fourth in RBI with 59.

Matt Koperniak

Just before Springfield’s season ended, Koperniak was allowed by the Cardinals to compete for Great Britain in the World Baseball Classic Pool A qualifier. The Brits advanced to the March WBC by winning the six-team, double-elimination tournament.

Koperniak was eligible because he was born in the UK while his US civil servant father was stationed there.

2023 recap

Koperniak’s 2023 began with the WBC, during which he went hitless with two walks and two strikeouts in 10 plate appearances.

Coming out of minor league camp, he returned to Double-A Springfield. However, his stay there in 2023 was only about six weeks. In mid-May, he moved up to Memphis and remained there for the rest of the season.

When Memphis outfielder Oscar Mercado was promoted to St. Louis, the Cardinals called up Koperniak from Springfield to replace him. In what was likely his final 145 plate appearances in the Texas League, Koperniak slashed .320/.386/.453/.839.

With the Triple-A Redbirds, Koperniak logged 422 plate appearances with a slash line of .275/.353/.431/784. While his wRC+ fell from 123 at Springfield to 97 with Memphis, he held his 10+% walk rate and his strikeout rate dropped from 18.6% to 14.5%.

An example of his quiet but effective production is his 85 RBI across the two stops, third most in the system in 2023 after Luken Baker and Chandler Redmond.

Though Koperniak had only 16 career steals prior to 2022, he became a sneaky success on the bases at Triple-A, going 9-for-10 after being caught five times in seven tries at Double-A earlier in 2023.

2024 outlook

Koperniak is another Rule 5 eligible player for the first time in December 2023. As noted, he has a broad set of tools, yet none stand out enough to make the corner outfielder a surefire MLB player today. As such, I do not expect he will be taken in the Rule 5 draft.

His first big-league spring camp invitation should be coming for 2024. The time with St. Louis coaches should be especially valuable because of his WBC side trip kept him away in 2023.

When the regular season begins, Koperniak should again be back to roam the outfield at AutoZone Park. There, he should be competing with Moises Gomez and Michael Siani – both of whom already have 40-man roster spots which Koperniak desires – for a chance to join St. Louis when called.

Future outlook

The good news for Koperniak is that time is not overly pressing. He cannot achieve minor league free agency until after the 2025 season, so he has two years to play up to the level of Triple-A and position himself to earn that 40-man roster spot.

His best scenario would seem to be to join the roster in the next off-season based on his performance during 2024. It would greatly aid his chances to reach that final rung sometime during 2025, with his most likely future ceiling as a reserve Major League outfielder.

The other side of the coin is that if Koperniak plays well in 2024, but isn’t protected by the Cardinals next winter, he could draw the attention of another team and get a chance through Rule 5 to reach the majors in that organization instead.

MLB debut: 2025
Rule 5 eligible: 2023

Exclusively for members of The Cardinal Nation

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Our 2024 Top 50 series continues

To see the entire list of top Cardinals prospects, grading scales and remaining article schedule, click here. This includes the Top 50 countdown and 12 in-depth, follow-up articles breaking down the list.

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