TCN 2024 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect # 35 – Alex Cornwell

photo: Alex Cornwell (Springfield Cardinals)

At no. 35 in The Cardinal Nation’s prospect countdown for 2024 is a groundball specialist with a plus curveball. As the starting pitching pyramid narrows with St. Louis approaching, how will Alex Cornwell fit?  FREE article.

Alex Cornwell

Position: Starting pitcher
Age: 24 years old
Bats/Throws: L/L
Height/Weight – 6’2/200
Acquired: Selected in the 15th round of the 2021 First-Year Player Draft, 451st overall

Hometown: LaCañada, California

Opened 2023: Peoria Chiefs (High-A)
Primary team in 2023: Peoria Chiefs (High-A)
Finished 2023: Springfield Cardinals injured list (Double-A)

Prior Top 50 rankings – none

Click on the above photo to be taken to Cornwell’s player page at The Cardinal Nation, with additional biography and history information.

Link to Cornwell’s career stats

Blake Newberry’s scouting report

Blake’s ranking – no. 40

(current grade/future grade)

FB CB SL CH Command Future Value
40/40 50/60 45/50 40/45 45/60 35
IP G GS ERA WHIP K% BB% HR/9 K-BB% FIP xFIP GB% BABIP
119.1 22 20 2.87 1.22 20.7% 4.7% 0.5 16.0% 3.07 (A+)

3.45 (AA)

 3.40 (A+)

3.88 (AA)

 55.9% .331 (A+)

.311 (AA)

I really enjoy watching Alex Cornwell pitch. He is not overpowering but I love his breaking balls, his control, and the way that his whole arsenal works together.

The lefty’s biggest flaw is that he is pedestrian from a pure stuff perspective, and that’s especially true when it comes to his fastball. The pitch sits in the low 90s and its movement profile is nothing special. The pitch plays up a bit because he commands it well and because it tunnels well with the rest of his arsenal.

Here’s what the fastball looks like:

That’s important and it helps but Cornwell still shouldn’t be throwing a ton of fastballs. Instead, he should be turning to his strong breaking balls.

My favorite pitch in his arsenal is a big sweepy curveball that Cornwell locates well to the glove side. The best part of the pitch, besides the good movement profile, is that it doesn’t have a hump when it comes out of the hand like some other curveballs do.

That adds deception to the pitch because it comes out flat and then falls off the table but it also creates good tunneling as any sort of a hump would distinguish the pitch from Cornwell’s fastball out of the hand.

Here’s the curveball in action:

It gets better, though. Cornwell also throws a nice slider that looks a bit like a flatter and harder version of his curveball. The pitch gets a good amount of sweep and though Cornwell isn’t always great at burying it, he is pretty consistent at locating it to his glove side. It’s a good offering and though I don’t have the pitch specs, I would assume that both the slider and the curveball have above average spin rates.

These two pitches that have helped Cornwell to the success he’s had, specifically because of how well they work together as part of his arsenal.

All of Cornwell’s pitches look the same out of the hand, which gives him some deception, but he also throws each of his pitches in complementary zones. He loves to throw the arm side fastball and the glove side breaking balls and can effectively locate those pitches in those spots. That means that all three pitches start in the same spot but then the fastball breaks to the arm side while the slider sweeps to the glove side and the curveball does the same but has more depth.

That’s tunneling and Cornwell is good at it.

I should mention that he’s not consistent at commanding his pitches to different regions. He’s not as good at locating the glove side fastball or the arm side breaking ball but that’s okay right now. He has shown flashes of being able to do so but even if that skill never develops, he still has pitches that allow him to work all regions of the zone and vary his attack. That’s what really matters.

The final pitch in Cornwell’s arsenal, which I’ve not mentioned yet, is a changeup with some tumble that he likes to keep on the arm side almost exclusively. He’ll use the pitch against righties mostly and isn’t afraid to throw it when he’s behind in the count.

That last part can be said about the rest of Cornwell’s arsenal is that he will use his breaking balls in a variety of counts. They’re not just used to finish off hitters.

I would like to see Cornwell throw fewer fastballs overall, as it’s really a pitch that needs to be hidden a bit to allow that velocity to get on hitters a bit more. Even if Cornwell does take that approach, he’s never going to be a true bat misser.

He lacks velocity and that does limit his arsenal a bit. Not only would some extra velocity help beef up his fastball, but it would also especially help his breaking balls. Don’t get me wrong, I like both his curveball and his slider, but the pitches would miss more bats with a little extra juice.

As they stand, they do miss some bats, but they are especially effective at creating chases and weak contact. Pair that with an ability to fill up the zone and it’s clear why Cornwell had success this year – he gets hitters to expand the zone, stays off the barrel, and doesn’t give out free passes. He also does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground.

The limitations are real, though. From a pure stuff perspective, Cornwell is a below average pitcher. His control is also better than his command, meaning that he can fill up the zone but he doesn’t always put his pitches where he wants them.

I do think that command can get to a plus grade but his current command actually isn’t as good as the walk rate would make you think it is. He’s also a bit on the older side for a prospect yet to see time in Triple-A. All of those things keep me from ranking Cornwell in the top 30. Yet, I’m not low on him at all.

In fact, I do think that Cornwell might have enough to stick as a backend starter. I’m not all that confident in that assessment but I think that he may be able to overcome the limited pure stuff with how well his pitches play off each other. Factor in the low walk rate and the high ground ball rate and you don’t have to squint to see a future as a back-end groundballling starter.

That’s probably closer to the higher end of Cornwell’s range of outcomes but it is why I want him to remain a starter until he proves that he can’t turn over a lineup. That may happen in Triple-A where hitters are more advanced and are more likely to take advantage of Cornwell’s limited stuff – but it may not. We’ll have to wait and see on that.

One thing that works in Cornwell’s favor is his ability to get righties out. In fact, the lefty has actually shown reverse splits over the course of his career, pitching more effectively against righties than against lefties. I wouldn’t expect that to continue but the point is that Cornwell doesn’t struggle against opposite handed pitchers like some.

I love prospects who show minimal platoon splits and Cornwell’s ability to pitch against righties makes it much more likely that he’ll remain an effective starter.

Regardless, what’s clear is that the Cardinals plucked an interesting starting pitching prospect with advanced pitchability out of the 15th round in the 2021 draft. I really loved watching Cornwell this year. I’m really curious to see how he handles the jump to Triple-A that led to many pitchability prospects faltering before him.

Summary: A big, deceptive, and sweepy curveball is Alex Cornwell’s signature pitch but the best part of his arsenal is how well it plays together. He is limited from a stuff perspective but he may still have a future as a groundballing back end starter with advanced pitchability.

Future Value: 35
Role: AAAA player/middle relief/spot starter
Risk: High

Brian Walton’s environmental impact report

Brian’s ranking – no. 32

Background

Coming out of high school, Cornwell was drafted by the Cubs in the 37th round in 2017 but did not sign. As a USC Trojan, missed all of 2018 and 2019 with injury and then when he was finally healthy, COVID washed out his 2020 season after four starts.

So, Cornwell only pitched one full season in college, 2021. He was not impressive overall, with a 5.35 ERA in 79 innings while walking 21 and striking out 65. However, his results were often at the extremes, as he allowed three runs or less in nine of his 15 starts.

Cornwell was selected by the Cardinals in the 15th round of the 2021 First-Year Player Draft and signed for $50,000. The organization eased him into professional ball as he made eight one-run appearances for a 2.25 ERA in the rookie-level Florida Complex League.

The left-hander began the 2022 season in Palm Beach’s bullpen but built up his innings count and moved into the rotation in late June. For June, he was named The Cardinal Nation’s system-wide Pitcher of the Month.

In six of his 10 2022 starts, he allowed one run or less, but in three others, Cornwell was blown up for a total of 20 runs, 17 earned.  Even so, his 4.50 ERA while in the Beach Birds’ rotation was superior to his 6.38 mark working out of the pen. Cornwell improved from 5.52 in the first half to 4.87 after the break. For the year, he fanned 10 batters per nine innings and had a walk rate of 2.6 per nine.

2023 recap

In 2023, Cornwell began with High-A Peoria and pitched well prior to his promotion to Double-A Springfield on July 7. With the Chiefs, Cornwell made 15 appearances, 13 starts, logging a 5-2 record with a 2.94 ERA. His strikeout rate slid to 7.7 per nine innings, though, as his walk rate also declined to 1.6 per nine. His best month was again June, when his 1.53 ERA was the lowest in the entire Cardinals system.

At the time of his promotion, Cornwell was among Midwest League leaders in ERA (second), innings pitched (first, 82 2/3), strikeouts (T-eighth, 71), WHIP (ninth, 1.23) and winning percentage (second, .714).

A veteran scout familiar with Cornwell from his time in the Midwest League commented. “He is ok, but I was not impressed,” the evaluator said.

Cornwell made seven more starts at Double-A before his 2023 season ended on August 19. He was not moved to Springfield’s injured list until September 5.

He registered a solid 2.70 ERA/3.45 FIP over 36 2/3 Texas League innings. Cornwell fanned 7.6 per nine and walked 2.0 per nine. Across the two stops, he threw a career-high 119 1/3 innings, ninth-most in the system.

Alex Cornwell (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)

Among all pitchers in the Cardinals system with at least 40 innings in 2023, Cornwell’s 2.87 ERA was third lowest, his FIP of 3.19 was second lowest and his xFIP of 3.55 was first. His walk rate of 4.7% was second-best and his strikeout to walk ratio of 4.43 was third best.

The kind of rebound exhibited by the 6-foot-0 hurler, from a 5.14 ERA in 2022 to his strong 2023, resulted in Cornwell’s selection as The Cardinal Nation’s Comeback Pitcher of the Year.

2024 outlook

The combination of four new starters acquired by the organization via trade at the 2023 deadline and Cornwell’s relative inexperience in Double-A suggests that he will return to Springfield to open 2024. That assumes he is healthy and ready to go in the spring, of course.

A Rule 5 protection decision is forthcoming in the fall of 2024, so the preceding season will be very important to Cornwell’s future.

Future outlook

At some point, a shift to the pen may be in the cards for Cornwell. Though it might not be immediate, it could be beneficial to him if player development makes that call sooner rather than later.

The competition for rotation spots is getting tighter and as good as his 2023 was, Cornwell is not among the organization’s top dozen starting prospects. But lefty relievers seem to have nine lives, at least.

If Cornwell is coming out of the bullpen, I could see him debuting with St. Louis during the 2025 season. As a starter, it could take him longer and perhaps with the need to travel elsewhere to reach the highest level.

MLB debut: 2025
Rule 5 eligible: 2024

Exclusively for members of The Cardinal Nation

TCN 2024 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #36 – Michael Siani

Our 2024 Top 50 series continues

To see the entire list of top Cardinals prospects, grading scales and remaining article schedule, click here. This includes the Top 50 countdown and 12 in-depth, follow-up articles breaking down the list.

50 Days, 50 Nights, 50 St. Louis Cardinals Prospects for 2024

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