photo: Edwin Nuñez (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)
In a FREE article, The Cardinal Nation’s prospect countdown for 2024 reaches the Top 20 with a hard-thrower who put it together in Class-A, followed by a solid stint in the Arizona Fall League. 22-year-old Edwin Nuñez is our top-ranked reliever this year but has more work ahead.
Position: Relief pitcher
Age: 22 years old
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight – 6’3/185
Acquired: International free agent signed in June 2020
Home: Nagua, Dominican Republic
Opened 2023: Palm Beach Cardinals (Low-A)
Primary team in 2023: Peoria Chiefs (High-A)
Finished 2023: Scottsdale Scorpions (Arizona Fall League)
Prior Top 50 rankings – 2023 not ranked, 2022 #44, 2021 #24
Click on the above photo to be taken to Nuñez’ player page at The Cardinal Nation, with additional biography and history information.
Blake Newberry’s scouting report
Blake’s ranking – no. 22
(current grade/future grade)
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Future Value |
| 55/60 | 45/60 | 50/55 | 30/40 | 40 |
| IP | G | GS | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | HR/9 | K-BB% | FIP | xFIP | GB% | BABIP |
| 63.2 | 41 | 0 | 3.39 | 1.35 | 23.4% | 10.8% | 0.7 | 12.6% | 3.37 (A)
4.69 (A+) |
3.37 (A)
4.69 (A+) |
42.2% | .319 (A)
.271 (A+) |
The progression of Edwin Nuñez has been fun to watch. The righty has always been armed with a fastball that can touch 100 mph, but prior to 2023, his command was practically nonexistent.
Things are different now, though. This past season, Nuñez really started to control his body better and develop some command. That brought fewer walks and the added benefit of fewer meatballs.
It looks like he’s starting to put it all together. That’s a good thing for both him and the Cardinals because there’s a whole lot to like from a raw tools perspective.
Nuñez’s primary fastball is a sinker that sat around 95-97 mph in 2023 but has questionable shape. He throws it a lot but not as much as he used to when he was almost exclusively a fastball pitcher in his younger years. He’ll also mix in the occasional four-seamer which is thrown a tick harder on average and has average to slightly above average ride with a good amount of run.
EDWIN NUNEZ GOES TO THE HIGH HEAT FOR THE STRIKEOUT AND PEORIA IS HEADED TO THE PLAYOFFS!!!! pic.twitter.com/ZvTRxEGIKR
— Kyle Reis, 58% Neanderthal (@kyler416) September 7, 2023
Simply from a shape perspective, neither pitch is overwhelming, but the four-seamer does look better to me. I would be curious to see its results with more usage as it could turn Nuñez into more of a true strikeout pitcher as (good) four-seamers tend to be better at missing bats and sinkers tend to be better at managing contact.
Regardless, both fastballs get excellent velocity and have a lot of spin (2300-2400 rpm). The velocity helps the pitches play now but the spin gives them the potential for better shape which would really take them to the next level.
While Nuñez’s fastballs are what first brought attention to him, it’s his secondary pitches that have really helped him become a more complete pitcher.
I already mentioned that Nuñez was almost exclusively a fastball pitcher in his early days as a prospect, but he adopted heavier usage of his changeup in 2023 and mixed in a sweepy breaking ball as well.
The 22-year-old has really developed feel for his changeup and it’s a bat missing pitch. It sits around 88 mph with good depth and some arm side run and he’s able to consistently locate it to his arm side. It’s a pitch that has shown a lot of growth, so much so that Nuñez isn’t afraid to throw it to same-sided hitters.
Edwin Nunez goes to three straight changeups – 87, 85, then 89 – to get the swinging strikeout to seal the victory for Palm Beach. pic.twitter.com/avmwMY5ZrY
— Kyle Reis, 58% Neanderthal (@kyler416) May 17, 2023
While Nuñez can consistently locate his changeup to his arm side and to the bottom of the zone, he struggles to keep the pitch in the zone and that is a limiting factor. The same can be said about all his pitches as Nuñez rarely puts his breaking ball in the zone and throws fewer than half of his heaters in the zone as well.
It’s this lack of control that hurts his profile. It is encouraging that Nuñez’s misses generally go in the same area that they were supposed to (i.e. low target misses low, arm side target misses arm side).So, there is some command in the profile; it just needs to be sharpened.
The breaking ball has also made some progress but still needs more before it can reach its potential as a wipeout offering. It’s technically listed as a slider, but it gets slurvy and is more of a slider/curveball hybrid than a true slider or a true curveball.
Another strikeout for Edwin Nunez, this time using his slider to get it pic.twitter.com/86UZiH3VO4
— Kyle Reis, 58% Neanderthal (@kyler416) August 6, 2023
Basically, it’s a sweeper with more depth or a curveball with a lot of sweep and a little less depth. The pitch sits around 78-80 mph and misses a lot of bats, but its movement profile could stand to be straightened out a bit. Nuñez would benefit from turning the pitch into a true slider or a true curveball or perhaps separating the pitch into two distinct offerings and throwing two true breaking balls.
It’s the latter option that I find most intriguing because Nuñez doesn’t have a bridge pitch that can split the velocity and the movement difference between his running fastball and his sweeping breaking ball. That pitch could be a hard slider, or it could be a cutter, but I do think Nuñez would benefit from developing either of those offerings.
The good news is that even though he throws a slurvy breaking ball, he generates a ton of spin with the pitch (2800-2900 rpm) which really gives it a lot of potential if he can work out a good shape.
While Nuñez has made a lot of progress, you can see that he still has a way to go. His mechanics can still get wild on him at times and that can mess with his release point. He also could benefit from working on his pitch shapes pretty much across the board.
Even with all that development still needed, Nuñez is the top-rated relief pitcher on our list because of his high potential.
His ability to generate velocity bodes well for the effectiveness of his fastballs going forward and improving his pitch shapes would help those offerings become truly plus or even double plus at the highest level. Taken by itself, that’s a great trait for a reliever but Nuñez isn’t done there. His ability to generate a lot of breaking ball spin bodes well for his ability to throw a good breaking ball in the future, even if he’s not quite there yet.
But, again, he isn’t done there. The righty has really developed his feel for a changeup and that gives him another weapon in his arsenal even though his breaking ball has the potential to surpass his changeup as his go-to secondary offering.
We’re looking at a pitcher who has probably the most upside of any reliever in the system which more than justifies his ranking inside the top 20.
Summary: Edwin Nuñez has made a lot of progress and is still a long way from his ceiling, but he possesses the most upside of any reliever in the system with his ability to generate both huge velocity and huge breaking ball spin.
Future Value: 40
Role: Middle reliever
Risk: High
Brian Walton’s environmental impact report
Brian’s ranking – no. 20
Few prospects have been on the kind of ranking roller coaster that Nuñez has been riding. After signing, he was ranked in our Top 25 before falling to 44th in 2022. The skid continued as he dropped off the Top 50 entirely during 2022 and heading into 2023 before his major upturn during the season, and now, securing his best ranking yet.
Background
The Cardinals first started scouting Nuñez in the Dominican Republic when he was 16, He showed glimpses of velocity to come at 90-92 mph on his fastball. By the time his deal was finalized at 18, he was renowned for touching 100 mph.
The Cardinals stuck with Nuñez after he was declared ineligible by Major League Baseball for one year. The issue was his age, as he presented himself as one year younger than he was determined to be. As a result, the Cardinals got a player one year later and two years older than originally hoped. COVID then added to the delay.
Nuñez’ signing was not official until June 2020, as the Cardinals held back the final $525,000 from their 2019-2020 international budget to land him. The amount given to the 37th signing in his class was the organization’s highest bonus allocated to any player that period.
Due to the timing of his signing and the pandemic, Nuñez was unable to become acclimated to professional ball at the Cardinals Dominican Academy after signing as hoped. Because of his limited prior experience, the impact on Nuñez’ early development may have been more significant than most prospects.
Even so, to open 2021, the Cardinals doubled down, skipping him over both their rookie teams in the Dominican Summer and the Florida Complex Leagues. For an international teen, debuting in Low-A was unprecedented in my recollection. With the benefit of hindsight, it was not a successful gambit.
Consider these top international pitching prospects from the organization. At age 18, Carlos Martinez apprenticed a year in the DSL before jumping to Class-A. Alex Reyes spent one summer in the Rookie Advanced Appalachian League in his age 18 debut before reaching Class-A. Sandy Alcantara pitched two seasons (at ages 19 and 20) in rookie-ball before his arrival in Class-A.
Nuñez opened 2021 in the rotation of Class-A Palm Beach (after a quick one-batter tune up). In two starts, he was bombed, yielding nine earned runs in a total of five innings on seven hits and six walks.
He spent the remainder of the season working in relief, though his non-admirable average of more than two baserunners per inning pitched continued. Specifically, his WHIP for the season was 2.24, highest of all pitchers in the Cardinals system who threw 25 innings or more, whether starters or relievers.
Nuñez’ strikeout rate of 9.9 per nine innings was good, but his walk rate of 9.4 per nine was of major concern. In fact, among pitchers throwing in 25 innings or more, it was third worst in the organization.
Despite the fact he was clearly overmatched at Low-A, Nuñez received an uncomfortable five-month baptism by fire. The Cardinals kept him at Palm Beach for the entire season, when other pitchers who were struggling less were sent down to the FCL. His ERA for 2021 was 10.90 in 53 2/3 innings. His BABIP was a very unlucky .383 and his xFIP was “only” 7.02.
His return to Palm Beach to open 2022 was not a surprise. How he was handled, however, was quite different. This time when Nuñez struggled in the first three weeks of the season, he was sent down to extended spring training. He was soon back for a second shot with Palm Beach in May, but as soon as the FCL schedule opened in June, Nuñez was returned to rookie ball for the remainder of the summer (where in hindsight he should have been the year before.)
Sending him backward for more work seemed the right move. For the Beach Birds, Nuñez had appeared in five games in relief and was blistered for nine earned runs in 6 1/3 innings (12.15 ERA). He allowed “only” eight hits but walked 11. Clearly, his heralded 100-mph velocity was not going to be enough.
In the FCL, he threw 26 2/3 innings, walking 15 and striking out 23 while posting a 4.05 ERA. In his 22 appearances out of the bullpen, he earned four holds but blew two of his four save opportunities.
2023 recap
I cannot recall a player who was assigned to Low-A three consecutive years, and certainly not a top prospect – until now, that is.
Nuñez opened 2023 back in the Beach Birds’ pen. He settled into a late inning role, saving five of seven chances while logging a 3.62 ERA. Over 27 1/3 innings, he fanned 35, but most importantly, walked “just” 14 while holding Florida State League batters to a collective .219 average.
On June 26, he finally received the promotion to High-A Peoria. With the Chiefs, Nuñez logged a 3.22 ERA and his lowest walk rate yet, 4.0 per nine innings. His strikeouts were down to 7.4 per nine, but his overall results led to his selection as our Peoria Chiefs Reliever of the Year.
Veteran manager Gary Kendall had Nuñez at Palm Beach in each of the last two seasons and notes the change in the right hander.
“Command is the big thing for him,” Kendall said. “Last year, he was a thrower. This year, he is learning how to pitch… This year, he was able to use his slider and change up more. He was made to use his slider and he got to the point he was leading hitters off with it, so it started to get some consistency.
“So, I was glad to see him move up the ladder and hopefully, his career blossoms because he has a really good arm,” the manager concluded.
Measured at the bottom line, Nuñez’ overall improvement in 2023 was exceptional. Specifically, compare his career ERA of 8.90 coming into the year to his 3.39 mark between the two Class-A stops in 2023. That 5.51 ERA difference powered him to The Cardinal Nation’s Emerging Pitcher of the Year honors.
After Peoria was ousted from the Midwest League playoffs, Nuñez received his second promotion of the year, joining Double-A Springfield. In his only appearance, he allowed one run on two hits and no walks in one inning during the Texas League postseason. It was good recognition and a sign of things to come.
His 2023 did not end in Springfield, however, as he was sent to the Arizona Fall League prospect showcase. This was a plum assignment for a player so young and relatively inexperienced. While some are sent to the AFL to log more innings after injury and others are there to provide additional input for a pending Rule 5 decision, Nuñez seemed to be there because of his considerable potential.
He was assigned uniform number “0,” worn by Masyn Winn with St. Louis. This also gave him the opportunity to spend six more weeks getting acquainted with Springfield pitching coach Eric Peterson, who was in the same role with the Scottsdale Scorpions.
Against more advanced hitters in the desert, Nuñez performed well, converting two of three save opportunities in eight games. The 22-year-old posted a 2.53 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 10 2/3 frames.
2024 outlook
Especially given how his 2023 concluded, Nuñez seems a lock to make his Double-A regular season debut to open 2024. It may be preceded by his first-ever big-league spring training camp invitation. This is an amazing advancement from his place 12 months earlier – coming off three months in the Florida Complex League to return to Low-A for the third year in a row.
My guess is that Nuñez will be given an opportunity to work the ninth inning for Springfield. The Texas League will be a major test, but if he can sustain his 2023 progress, getting to Memphis during the second half would not be out of the question.
Future outlook
While the early hopes that Nuñez could become a front-line major-league starter seem to be out the window, a future role as a hard-throwing reliever, maybe even a closer, would be a good outcome.
With a decision on Nuñez for Rule 5 purposes coming after the 2024 season, right now, it seems like he is firmly on track to receive a 40-man roster spot by fall. In that scenario, a spot in the 2025 Memphis pen could turn into his St. Louis debut with a simple phone call. If he can continue to keep his control under control and develop his secondaries further, a productive MLB career could ensue.
MLB debut: 2025
Rule 5 eligible: 2024
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Our 2024 Top 50 series continues
To see the entire list of top Cardinals prospects, grading scales and remaining article schedule, click here. This includes the Top 50 countdown and 12 in-depth, follow-up articles breaking down the list.
50 Days, 50 Nights, 50 St. Louis Cardinals Prospects for 2024
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