photo: Ian Bedell (Peoria Chiefs)
In a FREE article, The Cardinal Nation’s prospect countdown for 2024 reaches no. 15 with a talented right hander who seemed to have put his injuries in the past in a standout 2023 season. Drafted in 2020, Ian Bedell has the stuff, but needs to move ahead quickly after three years in A-ball.
Position: Starting pitcher
Age: 24 years old
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight – 6’2/214
Acquired: Selected in the fourth round, 122nd overall, of the 2020 First-Year Player Draft
Hometown: Davenport, Iowa
Opened 2023: Peoria Chiefs (High-A)
Primary team in 2023: Peoria Chiefs (High-A)
Finished 2023: Peoria Chiefs (High-A)
Prior Top 50 rankings – 2023 #37, 2022 #21, 2021 #26
Click on the above photo to be taken to Bedell’s player page at The Cardinal Nation, with additional biography and history information.
Blake Newberry’s scouting report
Blake’s ranking – no. 15
(current grade/future grade)
| FB | SL | CB | CH | Command | Future Value |
| 45/50 | 50/55 | 45/55 | 50/60 | 40/55 | 40 |
| IP | G | GS | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | HR/9 | K-BB% | FIP | xFIP | GB% | BABIP |
| 96 | 276 | 19 | 2.44 | 1.15 | 27.2% | 8.7% | 0.66 | 18.5% | 3.50 | 3.72 | 39.3% | .292 |
I wouldn’t be shocked for Bedell to pitch his way into the top 10 of our countdown next year. He re-established his prospect status after a great 2023 season in Peoria and his combination of command and stuff makes me comfortable projecting him a surefire starter moving forward. Bedell could maybe reach mid-rotation status if he takes a jump in 2024 when he’s another year removed from injury.
I’m keeping him at a 40 FV for now because of the injury history but I wouldn’t be surprised if Bedell exceeds that projection – if he stays healthy and pitches like he has shown.
My favorite aspect of Bedell’s profile is that he not only has two effective breaking ball shapes but also throws a downright nasty changeup. In fact, I’m willing to break from the consensus and call Bedell’s changeup his best pitch even though all his pitches could be above average offerings going forward. His arsenal is good and balanced and deep and plays well against both lefties and righties.
He can struggle a bit with consistency, and I think that’s really the part of his game that needs to be cleaned up the most. His fastball command was inconsistent at times, but the pitch plays well when he’s locating it. He also had velocity fluctuations with his fastball, generally sitting 92-94 mph but on occasion the heater looked softer than that.
His nasty changeup was also not quite as nasty as it can be at times and that’s another thing that should and can be improved.
These consistency issues aren’t uncommon for a pitcher who hadn’t thrown serious innings since 2019, when Bedell came out Missouri’s bullpen and then pitched on the Cape. The COVID stoppage and injuries prevented him from throwing more than 40 innings combined from 2020-2022 so it’s not weird for him to show some rust in his first full season back on the mound.
It is encouraging that he was able to throw nearly 100 innings after so little work in competitive environments in recent years. So, 2023 is the season during which Bedell re-established himself and I wouldn’t be surprised if he shoots through the system in 2024 and reaches Triple-A while even challenging for a late season promotion to St. Louis.
Yes, those are high expectations, so we shouldn’t expect that. I want to point out that it’s well within his range of outcomes because of how good his arsenal is.
Let’s dive into that arsenal now.
Bedell throws a four-seamer and sinker that sits around 92-94 mph, but his four-seamer can occasionally look firmer. Both pitches are lively with plenty of arm side run and Bedell is good at locating them to the arm side. He’ll climb the ladder a bit with his four-seamer which doesn’t have as much depth as his sinker and that gives him a vertical element to his attack.
Both pitches are effective and grade out as solidly average for me because of how lively they are. His fastballs seemed to tick up slightly in 2023 and if he can jump up again in 2024, his fastballs could be clear above average pitches, and even though I’m grading both pitches as average, they flash above average at times.
Here’s an example of how lively his fastball can be:
Ian Bedell goes up in the zone to get a swinging strikeout. pic.twitter.com/LVe9Vrnt01
— Kyle Reis, 58% Neanderthal (@kyler416) April 23, 2023
I’ll get to the breaking balls soon, but I want to review the changeup because it’s my favorite pitch in Bedell’s arsenal. It gets about an extra 10-12 inches of depth than his sinker and a lot of arm side run, upward of 20 inches, while sitting in the 84-mph range. The shape and velocity make the pitch incredibly effective, and it can look especially nasty at times.
Here’s a nice changeup fading away from a lefty hitter:
Three pitch strikeout gif from Ian Bedell. Starts with his fastball and ends with his changeup pic.twitter.com/LLXvhdqaKf
— Kyle Reis, 58% Neanderthal (@kyler416) July 3, 2023
Bedell doesn’t throw this pitch enough for my liking, but that’s understandable considering the quality of his breaking balls and how well they play against righties.
The pitch that first drew eyes to Bedell was his curveball. It’s been his bread and butter for years as a sharp breaking 12-6 with hard downward movement and just a little bit of sweep. It’s a good pitch and probably above average which plays effectively against both lefties and righties.
With that said, the curve took a back seat to Bedell’s slider in 2023, a pitch that was brand new for him. The slider gets good two plane break with sweepy movement and plays effectively with his changeup and running fastballs. It misses a lot of bats and is an above average offering that flashes plus and could very easily get to that level with another year of familiarity.
Ian Bedell goes to his slider to register his first strikeout in relief pic.twitter.com/lZFcmibzzR
— Kyle Reis, 58% Neanderthal (@kyler416) April 23, 2023
Bedell’s curveball command is still a bit inconsistent, and he can often leave it up in the zone but it tends to freeze the hitter in that location, so it doesn’t work to his detriment unless he leaves one middle-middle. The slider, though, is generally located well to the glove side and can be nasty breaking away from righties and into lefties.
So that’s the arsenal. It’s hard to pick out one pitch as better than the other and even though I side with the changeup, you could make a compelling argument for any of his secondaries as being top of the class.
That’s why Bedell could rise through the system quickly if he stays healthy, but considering his checkered medical history that is a sizable “if”. Still, Bedell is an extremely promising arm and one that, if healthy, has a solid chance at becoming a big-league rotation piece.
Summary: A good and deep five-pitch mix drives Bedell’s promise and the addition of a slider to an already good arsenal has helped him take a leap in his first full season back after a long stretch of injuries.
Future Value: 40
Role: Backend starter/middle relief
Risk: High
Brian Walton’s environmental impact report
Brian’s ranking – no. 15
Bedell is the slowest moving member of the loaded 2020 draft class in which high schoolers Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn as well as collegian Alec Burleson have reached St. Louis. In fact, Burleson already has accrued over a full season of MLB service time and Walker is just short of one year.
Then there is Tink Hence, another 2020 high schooler, a promising pitcher who has been babied in terms of professional workload. Yet, he has half a season at Double-A, 156 1/3 career innings, a Futures Game appearance and a stint in the Arizona Fall League, all while being three years younger than Bedell.
Finally, there is Bedell himself, who came into the Cardinals system from a major college program in 2020 but is still in High-A and with just 104 1/3 career innings over three full seasons. A positive is that 96 of those frames were logged in 2023, his first healthy year as a pro.
In his three prior seasons in these rankings, Bedell was as high as no. 21 heading into 2022, but a year ago, he dropped to no. 37 before his 2023 rebound.
Background
In 2018, hailing from Davenport, Iowa Central High School, Bedell was one of the elite prep prospects nationally. He was expected to go off the board early in the First-Year Player Draft as a prep senior.
Instead, Bedell reclassified, skipping his senior year of high school to enroll early at the University of Missouri. Though he did not impress in limited action as a freshman, his fortunes took a major upturn in 2019.
As a sophomore, Bedell dominated in relief, posting a 1.56 ERA. He followed it up with a starting and starring role in the summer Cape Cod League, crafting a 0.59 ERA with 36-to-3 strikeout to walk count in 24 ⅓ innings. That led to his selection as the 2019 CCL Pitcher of the Year.
With heightened expectations, Bedell moved into Mizzou’s rotation as a junior but the 2020 season was quickly shortened by COVID. He made just four starts, compiled a 3.70 ERA and registered strong 35-to-4 K/BB counts. He became one the youngest college players (20 years, 9 months) in the draft pool, but that significant age advantage has since been lost due to his subsequent injury problems.
Despite Bedell having just one full college season under his belt, and that as a reliever, plus the Cape success, the Cardinals gave Bedell a hefty signing bonus of $800,000. That was $331,000 above his slot value and equivalent to early third-round money. It was the Cardinals’ second highest overslot payment in 2020, after Winn.
As with the final five of the Cardinals’ seven 2020 draft picks, Bedell was not placed in the organization’s 60-man pool once signed, meaning his professional debut did not occur until 2021.
As 2021 spring training concluded, his first official assignment was an aggressive one – High-A Peoria. His season was over almost as quickly as it began. Bedell threw 68 pitches over 2 2/3 innings before being placed on the injured list on May 13. In his two appearances, Bedell allowed four runs, three earned, on seven hits, a walk, and a hit by pitch. Four of his eight outs secured were via the strikeout.
In essence, he also lost the 2022 season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. By mid-August, he was finally seemingly ready to go, assigned to the Florida Complex Cardinals to ramp up. Nine days after joining the rookie level club, Bedell’s rehab was moved to the nearby Low-A Palm Beach Cardinals. In three FCL innings, he had allowed no runs on three hits and two walks with six strikeouts.
Bedell’s three subsequent outings with the Beach Birds did not go well. He threw 2 2/3 innings, charged with five runs, two earned, on six hits and a walk with four strikeouts. Florida State League batters hit a collective .429 against his offerings.
On September 5, the Cardinals decided that was enough for 2022. Bedell was brought off his rehab and injured list status and reassigned to the FCL Cardinals, whose season had already ended.
2023 recap
Finally healthy coming into 2023 and ready to fully resume his career, Bedell returned to High-A Peoria, from where it had been interrupted by injury two years prior.
Half a year older than league average at 23 years and seven months, Bedell rejoined a promising Chiefs rotation that by then featured Hence and 2022 first-rounder Cooper Hjerpe, among others.
To be accurate, Bedell didn’t open among the starting five, as he ramped up his workload in long relief early before transitioning into the starting rotation in May. He quickly established himself as one of the most reliable arms on a Peoria club that reached the playoffs for the first time since 2018.
Bedell put together a season that culminated with Midwest League Pitcher of the Year honors as well as The Cardinal Nation’s nod as Peoria Starting Pitcher of the Year.
In 27 appearances including 19 starts, he logged a 2.44 earned run average, the lowest among any MWL hurler with at least 95 innings pitched. Bedell’s batting average against was a stingy .218.
Among all pitchers in the Cardinals system throwing at least 40 innings, Bedell had the lowest ERA, was third in FIP (3.50) and xFIP (3.72) and fourth in WHIP (1.15) but was not among the organization leaders in any key counting stats.
Coming off nine days rest, Bedell took the Game 2 loss in the MWL West Division playoffs. He was pulled with no outs in the fourth inning after yielding six hits and five runs.
All told, Bedell’s 2023 was a clear success, but that doesn’t mean I don’t have questions.
His best career effort was on July 3 against Cedar Rapids when he allowed just one hit over six shutout innings, lowering his season ERA to 1.98. It seemed like an ideal time to promote Bedell to Double-A Springfield, but that was not in the Cardinals’ plans. In comparison, at that same time, his rotation mate Hence (and his 2.81 MWL ERA) was sent to the Futures Game and promoted to Springfield immediately after.
Interestingly, that six-inning outing was the only time during 2023 that Bedell was allowed to throw more than five innings. In fact, he went beyond four frames in just four of 27 appearances all year long. Further, none of his “longer” outings occurred after July 8. Normally, with a starter building up after injury, one would expect starts to go longer as the season progressed, but for Bedell, the Cardinals did the opposite, dialing back his workload.
During the second half, as Bedell’s innings total crossed the 60 mark, the Cardinals clearly began to curtail the length of his starts, much like they have done with Hence ever since he became a professional.
Being cautious is completely understandable given Bedell’s injury history, but this kind of care can make results appear better than they might have been in a unconstrained environment. Just as I have pointed out with Hence for three years, a pitcher’s stats are going to look better when he is pulled after just four innings, before he must face a lineup a third time and potentially gets deep into jams that he must find a way to work out of or pay the price.
Some observers were concerned that Bedell was high risk for selection in the December 2023 Rule 5 Draft, but I was not among them. The Cardinals chose not to add him to the 40-man roster and that turned out to the right decision, as Bedell was not taken.
The combination of his injury history, his relatively short mound outings and lack of any Double-A or Triple-A experience heading into his age 24 season made him a low odds possibility to contribute at the Major League level in 2024.
2024 outlook
Instead of being at the back end of an MLB bullpen as a Rule 5 pick to open 2024, Bedell should be in the Springfield rotation. While I have written extensively about the logjam of starting pitching at Double-A and Triple-A, Bedell will almost certainly be given priority ahead of most others.
The step up to the increased level of competition at Double-A is arguably the most important phase of a prospect’s career. From the competitiveness and offering perspectives, Bedell should be up to the challenge.
For obvious reasons, the right-hander remains a darling of analysts and scouts alike.
“I expect Bedell will be promoted rapidly and be in Triple-A by year end (2024),” said a professional scout. “As much as any pitcher I’ve seen in that organization, he competes well and has advanced pitchability. (In the majors) he will be at the back of the rotation or a good relief pitcher if not.”
Despite all the accolades, I am still going to be “from Missouri” until Bedell “shows me”.
I will be watching his durability, of course, but also his usage. Hopefully, in Bedell’s second full year after his return from Tommy John, the Cardinals will take off the wraps and we will see him pitch into the final third of a game for the first time. He needs to become more than a four-inning phenom.
Future outlook
Given the lost time, representing basically half of Bedell’s years before minor league free agency, his career must get moving – with a sense of urgency.
The most expeditious route would seemingly be to put him in the bullpen. Referencing his strong results as a college reliever, he could still have a high career floor working out of the pen. Yet, given his recent success starting, I don’t see that shift as likely at this time.
With no Double-A or Triple-A experience to date and his usage and health questions, I am continuing to assume it will take Bedell the better part of the 2024 and 2025 seasons to reach St. Louis.
This is extremely important because if he doesn’t reach St. Louis by the end of the 2025 season and isn’t placed on the 40-man by then, Bedell will reach minor league free agency at the age of 26.
He wasn’t added for Rule 5 purposes yet, but another decent season at the upper levels of the system and that would likely change. The security and associated three option years that go in hand with 40-man placement would relieve much of the time pressure on him.
But first things first. Bedell needs to log two more solid seasons on the mound while extending the duration of his outings. The results should follow, perhaps including a shot at St. Louis’ rotation. However, any setbacks to this rough timeline and the bullpen could become a viable option for his future.
MLB debut: 2025
Rule 5 eligible: 2023 (not selected)
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Our 2024 Top 50 series continues
To see the entire list of top Cardinals prospects, grading scales and remaining article schedule, click here. This includes the Top 50 countdown and 12 in-depth, follow-up articles breaking down the list.
50 Days, 50 Nights, 50 St. Louis Cardinals Prospects for 2024
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