TCN 2024 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #1 – Masyn Winn

photo: Masyn Winn (Memphis Redbirds)

In a FREE article, The Cardinal Nation’s prospect countdown for 2024 reaches no. 1 with the 21-year-old starting shortstop of the St. Louis Cardinals. Masyn Winn has the defense along with the tools to improve on his MLB introduction at the plate and play in the majors for a long time.

Masyn Winn

Position: Shortstop
Age: 21 years old
Bats/Throws: R/R

Height/Weight: 5’11/180
Acquired: Selected in the second round of the 2020 First-Year Player Draft, 54th overall

Hometown: Katy, Texas

Opened 2023: Memphis Redbirds (Triple-A)
Primary team in 2023: Memphis Redbirds (Triple-A)
Finished 2023: St. Louis Cardinals (MLB)

Prior Top 50 rankings – 2023 #2, 2022 #5, 2021 #8

Click on the above photo to be taken to Winn’s player page at The Cardinal Nation, with additional biography and history information.

Link to Winn’s career stats

Blake Newberry’s scouting report

Blake’s ranking – no. 1

(current grade/future grade)

Hit Power Field Arm Run FV
50/55 40/45 50/65 80/80 70/70 60
AVG OBP SLG OPS HR SB CS BB% K%
.288 (AAA)

.172 (MLB)

 .359 (AAA)

.230 (MLB)

 .474 (AAA)

.238 (MLB)

 .834 (AAA)

.467 (MLB)

 18 (AAA)

2 (MLB)

 17 (AAA)

2 (MLB)

 2 (AAA)

1 (MLB)

 8.8% (AAA)

7.3% (MLB)

 16.7% (AAA)

19.0% (MLB)
ISO wRC+ GB% LD% FB% Pull% Cent% Oppo%
.187 (AAA)

.066 (MLB)

 108 (AAA)

29 (MLB)

 39.8% (AAA)

46.9% (MLB)

 24.0% (AAA)

13.3% (MLB)

 36.2% (AAA)

39.8% (MLB)

 39.6% (AAA)

28.7% (MLB)

 26.9% (AAA)

33.7% (MLB)

 33.5% (AAA)

37.6% (MLB)

Masyn Winn struggled immensely in his first exposure to the majors but that doesn’t change his top prospect status in my view because he still showed flashes of his talent and promise. I was most surprised by Winn’s defense as he struggled a bit more than I thought he would as a major league shortstop but I’m still high on his glove long term, and, to put it simply, I’m still high on him long term.

It’s important to add context to Winn’s struggles. He was only 21 years old when he made his debut, and he won’t turn 22 until March 2024. There’s still plenty of growth ahead and he has had an offseason to adjust after experiencing the majors for the first time.

Most impressive was Winn’s ability to stay within the strike zone and put the bat on the ball. His hit tool has always been the most advanced part of his offensive game so that shouldn’t be too surprising but a strikeout rate of just 19% and a whiff rate of just 21.6% (MLB average is 24.8%) is notable for a 21-year-old whose value is likely to be driven by his glove.

Winn’s glove was below average according to defensive metrics like DRS (-1) OAA (-3) and UZR/150 (-3.9) but he still possesses the same athleticism and rocket arm as always. That gives him the ability to make plays that other shortstops can’t.

It’s not just his arm strength that stands out but also his accuracy. Paul Goldschmidt said as much this winter:

While Winn makes spectacular plays because of his athleticism and his elite arm strength, he isn’t the most instinctive shortstop and doesn’t always get the best read off the bat. This can improve but it’s what limits his glove from being a true plus-plus tool.

Even so, I’m not worried about Winn’s defense. It may take him some time to reach his defensive ceiling but he’s not a below average defender or even an average one. He has the potential to be a standout defender at a premium position and that will drive his value.

Like Victor Scott, Winn is a defense-first prospect but even so, his bat has the potential to catch up to his glove and add value at the major league level.

I mentioned that Winn has a great feel for contact but also has above average raw power in the tank, as evidenced by his 110.1 mph max exit velocity in Triple-A. The trick will be tapping into that power more often as he can struggle to reach his top end exit velocities consistently. Winn can also struggle to pull fly balls which will limit his power even further. So, despite the above average raw power, he’s probably going to settle around 45-game power in the majors.

Regarding his hit tool, Winn can make frequent contact and he loves to spray the ball around the field. He struggled to hit line drives in the majors, but I expect that will change as he becomes more comfortable with major league pitching. Winn was adept at hitting the ball on a line in Triple-A and has potential to fill the gaps more than in 2023.

His speed enables him to take extra bases and beat out infield singles, which remains a key asset. Despite his elite speed, he’s not the most aggressive base stealer but he should still be able to steal quite often at the highest level.

I expect Winn to draw about an average amount of walks, but his swing decisions need to be refined. He was more aggressive at the plate in Triple-A than in the majors and the aggressive approach likely serves him better. He did a great job of staying within the zone in the majors, but he was an extremely patient hitter overall and swung at a well below league average amount of pitches in the zone.

How he settles his approach will be important. Ideally, he will become more aggressive in the zone and retain his patience outside it but that’s not always possible. If he’s unable to do that, he would likely have more success attacking hittable pitches more often and living with a higher chase rate.

I expect Winn will develop a better plate approach over time and I wouldn’t be shocked if it was significantly improved in 2024. In fact, that approach is probably the most malleable part of Winn’s game and will have the biggest impact on his performance at the plate in the upcoming season.

Once he settles that, he’ll be able to maximize his great contact abilities and get back to spraying the ball all over the field, letting his speed work for him, and even clearing the fence from time to time,

Another point in favor of Winn’s hit tool is his demonstrated ability to hit all pitch types. This was true throughout his minor league career, and I expect that to remain a strength.

To bring everything together, we’re looking at an explosive athlete with big speed, huge arm strength, an above average feel for contact, and decent raw strength in his bat. He’s still bringing his whole game together but that’s a lot of tools.

Also, for a player who has already reached the majors, I think considerable development is possibly still ahead in Winn’s game. He’s still a long way from his ceiling and that’s exciting.

Winn is an electric player who can really wow you on the field and it’s hard to put a ceiling on someone like that. He looks like a glove-first prospect with a good hit tool and there’s a chance that he can turn into an average or better hitter playing really good defense at shortstop. That’s a player who can go to All-Star games if he puts everything together.

Summary: Masyn Winn is an electric athlete with a lot of tools and the ability to turn heads at any moment. There’s still some refinement and adjustment needed on defense and at the plate before he reaches his ceiling but Winn is an extremely exciting player.

Future Value: 60
Role: All Star
Risk: Medium

Brian Walton’s environmental impact report

Brian’s ranking – no. 1

Background

During his Texas high school years, Winn starred as a two-way player, hitting .410 and posting a 1.33 ERA with a strikeout rate of 12.7 batters per nine innings while throwing 98 mph from the mound.

Pre-draft, Baseball America wrote, “Pound for pound, Winn could be the most purely talented player in the 2020 draft.”

After the Cardinals selected him, Winn received a signing bonus of $2,100,000 – substantially above the slot amount for the 54th overall pick of $1,338,500. After signing, Winn was one of a select few who worked out in the alternate camp under organization supervision while the regular season was canceled.

While some scouts felt Winn’s pre-draft pitching was ahead of most 18-year-olds, the Cardinals primarily focused him on playing shortstop and acclimating to hitting fulltime with a wood bat. In Springfield, Winn threw off the mound the last two weeks of the alternate camp, but by the start of the 2021 season, the Cardinals asked Winn to concentrate solely on shortstop.

Winn apparently put in enough work in Springfield and in 2021 minor league spring training camp to progress to a full-season assignment with Palm Beach to make his official professional debut.

After a slow three-week start (.494 OPS), Winn figured out Low-A pitching. From May 25 until his July 26 promotion to High-A Peoria, Winn placed in the top 11 in the Southeast League in key offensive categories including all four slash stats (.303/.395/.449/.845) along with 54 hits, 80 total bases, 32 RBI and 32 runs scored. During that hot stretch, Winn was named the Southeast League Player of the Week for the period of June 7-13. His highlight was a seven-RBI game on June 13.

His only real offensive weakness in Low-A was an extreme split. Winn pummeled left-handed pitching to the tune of a 1.120 OPS but registered a pedestrian .696 mark against righties.

Masyn Winn (Ryan Dowd/Palm Beach Cardinals)

Joining the Peoria Chiefs at the end of July, Winn initially scuffled, with a .504 OPS in August and a .534 mark in September. His strikeout rate increased from 21.1% at Palm Beach to 26.0% at Peoria as he struggled at times with the elevated pitch. More concerning was his walk rate plummeting from a very good 14.1% with the Beach Birds to just 3.9% with the Chiefs.

At Palm Beach, Winn committed 24 errors in 86 games at short, but improved during the season, with just six errors in 30 games in the field with Peoria.

Another positive is that Winn became more aggressive on the bases in High-A while maintaining his high level of efficiency. He matched his Low-A total of 16 stolen bases in roughly half the number of games at the higher level. His success rate for the season was a very strong 86.5% and his season total of 32 swiped bags was 33% higher than any other player in the Cardinals system.

Winn was not invited to 2022 major league spring training camp, which was not a surprise. From minor league camp, he was sent back to Peoria to open the season. To note that his second shot at the Midwest League was an improvement would be a colossal understatement.

When promoted to Springfield on May 23, the leadoff man was leading the Chiefs in most offensive categories, including batting average (.349), slugging (.566), OPS (.970), doubles (11) and runs (22), and topped the Midwest League in triples with seven. Win was a perfect 15-for-15 in stolen bases and his OBP was “only” .404.

Unlike his experience when joining Palm Beach and Peoria, Winn did not hit badly from the start in his new, higher league. Overall, in 86 games at Double-A, he drove in 48, hit 11 home runs, stole 28 bases in 33 attempts and registered a slash line of .258/.349/.432/.781.

Along with Jordan Walker, Winn was selected to represent the Cardinals in the MLB All-Star Futures Game held in July at Dodger Stadium. His 100.5 mph throw from shortstop drew national attention.

During 2022, Winn was second in the Cardinals system in plate appearances with 550, not including 81 additional accrued later in the Arizona Fall League. Across the organization, he was third in hits (134), first in doubles (36), first in triples (8), tied for second in walks (63), second in runs scored (91) and his surprising .468 slugging percentage was fifth in the system.

Winn was also second in stolen bases in the organization. He swiped 43 bags and was caught just five times for an excellent success rate of 89.6%, a slight improvement over his stellar 2021 mark of 86.5%.

Masyn Winn (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)

To conclude his 2022, Winn was sent to the AFL. Originally moved to second base because of teammate Jordan Lawlar, the top prospect of the Diamondbacks, Winn took over at shortstop when Lawlar was injured and remained there for the rest of the schedule. In the desert, Winn recorded a .294 average with an impressive .407 OBP in 20 games. He also went 9-for-10 in stolen base attempts and drove in nine. With one double and a home run, Winn had a .760 OPS.

Winn was named to the AFL Fall Stars Game, during which he made another eye-catching play at shortstop for the national television audience.

Baseball America continued their praise of Winn, naming him the Best Athlete and having the Best Infield Arm in the Cardinals system – for the third consecutive year. Prior to 2022, BA had also anointed Winn as the organization’s Fastest Baserunner, but he ceded that title to Mike Antico.

At the 2022 AFL, I asked a scout about Winn’s offense.

“He is a little exposed by the high fastball,” the evaluator said. “He has a low scoop swing, but elite (90%) contact. These contact over power guys tend to hit.”

2023 recap

With Tommy Edman away from spring training camp for the World Baseball Classic, Winn received as much playing time as any Cardinals regular in Jupiter. He performed well with four walks, 12 singles, two doubles, two triples, two home runs, nine RBI and 11 runs scored. Winn tied for the team lead with four steals in five attempts. In 61 plate appearances over 18 games, he slashed .333/.393/.556/.949.

Winn became the youngest player in Triple-A baseball to begin 2023. Continuing his prior pattern, Winn struggled in his first month with Memphis, slashing .223/.287/.321/.608. However, his offense improved substantially in May and June.

In July, Winn’s offense caught up with his defense. In his new peak as a professional, he slashed .359/.427/.750/1.177 in 21 games. Winn led all qualified Cardinals minor leaguers in OPS and topped all system hitters in multiple counting stats – 33 hits, of which 18 went for extra bases including eight home runs, along with 26 RBI, 26 runs and 69 total bases. Winn reached base safely in 20 of his 21 games.

He was the consensus Player of the Month from the Cardinals organization and The Cardinal Nation and completed his recognition with the International League Player of the Month award.

Masyn Winn (Memphis Redbirds)

When Paul DeJong was traded to Toronto on July 31, speculation was high that Winn would receive the call to join St. Louis. Instead, Jose Fermin was promoted from Memphis.

On August 18, the opportunity finally came when St. Louis placed Lars Nootbaar on the injured list and promoted Winn. Edman became the regular center fielder and Winn played daily at shortstop for the remainder of the season. The motivation to wait for the promotion seemed to be that the Cardinals wanted to keep Winn underneath the qualification bar so he would remain rookie-eligible in 2024. (Not coincidentally, he finished 2023 with exactly 45 days of service time, right on the line.)

In his first season of play at Triple-A, in 498 plate appearances over 105 games, Winn slashed .288/.359/.474/.833, with 18 home runs, 61 RBI and 17 stolen bases.  At the time of his promotion, he led minor league baseball with 99 runs scored and was tied for second in hits (128) among all Triple-A players. With Memphis, Winn had four separate hitting streaks of at least 10 games, including a career-high 16-game streak.

Like what occurred when he first joined Palm Beach, Peoria and Memphis, Winn initially struggled with the bat with St. Louis. But in the majors, the visibility, scrutiny, and the stakes are much higher. In 137 plate appearances over 37 games, Winn slashed a disappointing .172/.230/.238/.468. An extenuating circumstance was a very low .196 BABIP that should normalize over time. His strikeout rate crept up from Triple-A but was ok at 19%. His walk rate fell to 7.3%, an area that needs attention.

2024 outlook

Any speculation about Winn’s status coming into 2024 should have been quelled during the Winter Meetings when Cardinals PBO John Mozeliak disclosed the starting lineup, including Winn at short and Edman in center field. Yet, there are those who feel Edman should be the starter at shortstop. The reality is that the Cardinals do not have three other starting quality outfielders without him. Tyler O’Neill was traded, Nootbaar is better in left and Dylan Carlson cannot consistently hit right-handed pitching. In other words, Edman is needed most in center field.

Despite what some may think, having Edman in center is a positive for the Cardinals, as is playing Winn at short.

I probed a Cardinals insider about the level of commitment of the organization to Edman in center. I was told that Edman is “an unbelievable center fielder” and according to a prominent staffer, he is the best center fielder on the team. However, there is concern about the potential of requiring Edman to move back to cover short if Winn is hurt, as greater defensive stability appears to be a 2024 team desire.

The Cardinals have given Winn their clear stamp of approval as the regular shortstop. How long that might continue if his offensive struggles are not limited to his 2023 debut is unknown. For multiple reasons, perhaps a roster depth addition at short is coming by spring.

Future outlook

Winn has been and still is the Cardinals shortstop of the future. The only question remaining is how ready he is to be the shortstop of the present. I think Winn should be able to improve his offense enough to hold onto his starting berth with St. Louis. In 2023, he demonstrated a mastery of Triple-A, but not every player clicks in his first MLB action, especially at the age of 21. And if Winn shows he needs more finishing in the minors, it will only be a matter of time until he is back, likely for good.

In the short term, if Winn can break out, it would be the kind of performance that could help stabilize a borderline club into a contender. For the long haul, it could enable him and Walker to evolve into roles as part of the next generation of team leaders.

MLB debut: 2023
Minor league options remaining: 3

Exclusively for members of The Cardinal Nation

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Our 2024 Top 50 series continues

To see the entire list of top Cardinals prospects, grading scales and remaining article schedule, click here. This includes the Top 50 countdown and 12 in-depth, follow-up articles breaking down the list.

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