photo: Dylan Carlson (Jeff Curry/USA TODAY Sports)
Should the St. Louis Cardinals play outfielder Dylan Carlson more frequently or more selectively? Brian Walton explains why he believes the latter.
In partial explanation of the recent demotion of rookie outfielder Jordan Walker to Triple-A, the St. Louis Cardinals expressed a desire to gain clarity and find rhythm among their remaining outfielders. Five had been competing for regular at-bats with that total now reduced to four.
A by-product of the change is that Dylan Carlson is receiving more playing time after having been slowed by neck soreness.
My view is that Carlson should be played more selectively, in a manner that accentuates his strengths.
Case in point – not only is Carlson playing on Saturday in Los Angeles, he is batting fifth against none other than three-time Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw.
At first blush, this might seem puzzling, as here in 2023, Carlson has the lowest OPS among the Cardinals’ outfielders (including Walker). In fact, his .630 mark is even lower than that of journeyman infielder Taylor Motter (.633), currently the last man on the bench.
Yet, the pearl in this is that Kershaw is a left-hander. Facing lefties remains Carlson’s forte.
The related point is less positive. Since his first full season, 2021, the switch-hitting Carlson’s results against the majority of the pitchers in MLB, right-handers, have steadily declined.
I looked into this in detail in response to a poster on The Cardinal Nation’s free forum, who suggested the Cardinals should return Carlson to the everyday lineup in the hope he can better his production against righties. While the Cardinals defense would likely improve with Carlson reinstalled as the regular center fielder, the data indicates the offense would not.
Others wondered if it should have been Carlson, who had a .592 OPS for the season to that point, sent down to Memphis instead of Walker. On the other hand, maybe at this stage of his career, Carlson is what he will be.
Yes, Carlson is still “just” 24 years old, but he has played in 330 career games with St. Louis. No longer can one cite “small sample size” as a hope for a major directional change.
Specifically, since his 2020 debut, Carlson has taken almost 1000 plate appearances against major league right-handed pitchers. Not only is his career OPS almost 200 points worse against righties compared to lefties, the gap has been widening each year.
As the data below indicates, Carlson’s OPS against lefties have been fairly consistent while his results against righties have gone steadily downhill. The data suggests a clear directional change should be made.
| vs. RHP | vs. LHP | OPS | |||
| Carlson | PA | OPS | PA | OPS | difference |
| career | 972 | 0.680 | 310 | 0.868 | -0.188 |
| 2023 | 39 | 0.534 | 17 | 0.849 | -0.315 |
| 2022 | 347 | 0.633 | 141 | 0.845 | -0.212 |
| 2021 | 481 | 0.739 | 138 | 0.923 | -0.184 |
| 2020 | 105 | 0.621 | 14 | 0.558 | 0.063 |
One might argue that this exposure has generally been long understood, yet Carlson’s usage indicates nothing has changed. Here in 2023, 70% of Carlson’s plate appearances have been against right-handed pitchers, which is almost the same as his 71% split in 2022.
The recommended solution?
There is no need to force Carlson to abandon switch hitting. However, he should not start against right-handed pitchers and should be pinch hit for in crucial late inning at-bats versus righty relievers.
If that means bringing up another outfielder for additional depth rather than keeping Motter as the head-scratching choice as third reserve infielder, the Cardinals should do it.
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