photo: Adam Wainwright (Jeff Curry/USA TODAY Sports)
Most everyone makes predictions, but very few come back after the fact to self-assess the quality of the guesses. When bows are to be taken, memories are crystal clear, but bad takes are often conveniently forgotten.
That isn’t how we do it here at The Cardinal Nation, though. Whether we can strut or have to eat a big piece of humble pie, we follow through.
Last year at this time, as in each January, I published my predictions of the topics I felt could evolve into the top five stories across the St. Louis Cardinals organization for the then-New Year of 2023.
Now with the benefit of full hindsight, including the Top 10 Stories of 2023 now on the books, it is time to return to my initial forecast.
The original top five projections from a year ago follow, along with where the stories ended up at year end. I won’t be repeating my 2023 summaries here, so click on the article link below if you’d like to read those detailed reports.
The Cardinal Nation’s Top 10 St. Louis Cardinals Stories of 2023
This year, my predictive powers were above average. In fact, for the first time since 2017, all five of my predictions made the 2023 Top 10. However, I still had one major miss. I did not anticipate the Cardinals’ fall from first place to last, but then again, who did?
Here is the scoreboard.
| Prediction | Actual | ||
| Pre-2023 prediction story | rank | rank | Post-2023 actual story |
| Firming Up the Rotation | 1 | 2 | The Big Sell-Off |
| 6 | Gambling on Age in 2024 | ||
| Contreras Filling Yadi’s Cleats | 2 | 4 | Contreras Weathers Bashing |
| Jordan Walker and the Outfield | 3 | 7 | Walker and Winn Arrive |
| 9 | Clearing the Bench | ||
| Wainwright’s Last Hurrah | 4 | 3 | Wainwright Hangs on for 200 |
| New Leaders in the Dugout | 5 | 10 | Bench Coach Shuffles |
Revisiting my predicted top St. Louis Cardinals stories of 2023 from last January.
- Firming Up the Rotation
In January 2023, I wrote about the six veteran pitchers vying for the starting five and how stability from them would be needed for the Cardinals to repeat as National League Central Division Champions.
As we all know, the rotation turned out to be a contributor to the last place finish, leading to a retooling for 2024. Adam Wainwright retired, Dakota Hudson was non-tendered and Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery were traded. The end of July sell-off topic became our no. 2 story of 2023.
Three free agents have been signed to join holdovers Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz in the 2024 version of the rotation. They are Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and Sonny Gray. Their additions are our no. 6 story of 2023, with a bullet.
2. Contreras Filling Yadi’s Cleats
It was clear coming into the season that the Cardinals’ biggest addition for 2023 would become one of the year’s biggest stories. However, we didn’t know that free agent signee Willson Contreras would be engulfed in public controversy that embarrassed everyone involved.
Yet, by the end of the season, the catcher turned the negatives around by leading the team in OPS and showing leadership and maturity in the process. This became our no. 4 story of 2023.
3. Jordan Walker and the Outfield
The high expectations for top prospect Jordan Walker increased coming into 2023 when the 21-year-old jumped over Triple-A and became St. Louis’ starting right fielder. It wasn’t always easy, but the rookie made progress as the season went on. This became a part of our no. 7 story of 2023.
The fortunes of Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson took a turn downward in 2023, however, due to injury and performance below expectation. Following the season, O’Neill was traded to Boston (part of our no. 9 story), while Carlson is coming into 2024 as the fourth outfielder.
4. Wainwright’s Last Hurrah
The wish of everyone coming into 2023 was that Adam Wainwright’s final season would mirror the 2022 triumph of his longtime teammates Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina.
That did not come to pass, however, with the 41-year-old pitcher’s personal achievement of 200 career wins the only positive in a dismal year for player and team alike. This became our no. 3 story of 2023, though not as hoped.
5. Important New Leaders in the Dugout
Coming into 2023, the Cardinals had three new coaches replacing veterans in arguably the most important non-manager spots on the staff – pitching coach, hitting coach and bench coach.
Looking back, it is difficult to assess the individual contributions of Dusty Blake, Turner Ward and Joe McEwing during 2023, though the latter’s position was held as the year opened by Matt Holliday. McEwing was a quick hire last January when Holliday backed out.
Two of the three will be back in 2024, but the Cardinals replaced the long-time MLB bench coach McEwing after one season in the job with first-time coach Daniel Descalso. The bench coach carousel became our no. 10 story of 2023.
Next up
In the final article of this annual series, I will outline my predictions for the top five St. Louis Cardinals stories of 2024.
Earlier article: The Cardinal Nation’s Top 10 Stories of 2023
The Cardinal Nation’s Top 10 St. Louis Cardinals Stories of 2023
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Brian Walton can be reached via email at brian@thecardinalnation.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.
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