While anyone can and does make predictions these days, how many of them come back after the fact to self-assess the quality of the guesses? When bows are to be taken, it is more likely to occur, but more often they are forgotten.
That isn’t how we do it here at The Cardinal Nation, however. We do our reviews whether we can strut or have to eat a big piece of humble pie.
Last year at this time, as in each January, I published my predictions of the topics I felt could evolve into the top five stories across the St. Louis Cardinals organization for the then-New Year of 2022.
Now with the benefit of full hindsight, including the Top 10 Stories of 2022 now on the books, it is time to return to my initial forecast.
The original top five projections from a year ago follow, along with where the stories ended up. I won’t be repeating my 2022 summaries here, so click on the article link below if you’d like to read those detailed reports.
The Cardinal Nation’s Top 10 St. Louis Cardinals Stories of 2022
This year, I frankly characterize my predictive powers as below average. I was on target with just two of my top five guesses from one year ago. Of course, that means that three others did not make it, which I will explain below.
Almost always, how the Cardinals season ends up becomes my number one story of the year, but it placed second in 2022. In my assessment, the unexpected triumphant return of Albert Pujols leapt ahead of the Division-winning, but Wild Card Round losing 2022 Cardinals.
Here is the scoreboard.
| Prediction | Actual | ||
| Pre-2022 prediction story | rank | rank | Post-2022 actual story |
| Marmol’s Maiden Voyage | 1 | 10 | Marmol Manages |
| The End of the Waino and Yadi Era? | 2 | 6 / 4 | Wainwright and Molina Record Setters / Molina Retires |
| Top Prospects and Friends Reach the Bigs | 3 | ||
| Matz’ Mastery? | 4 | ||
| A Shortstop Solution | 5 |
Revisiting my predicted top St. Louis Cardinals stories of 2022.
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Oliver Marmol (Steve Mitchell/Imagn) Marmol’s Maiden Voyage (actual story no. 10)
What I thought a year ago would be the top story of 2022 barely scraped the top 10. Since a manager usually takes more than his fair share of heat when things go bad but receive little of the praise when all goes well, that is probably a good sign.
No one knew what to expect from new manager Oliver Marmol, but a steady but unspectacular 93-win, division title result followed for the 36-year-old and his team.
The Wild Card format expanding from one game to best of three did not matter. 2022 ended with the same disappointing result as in 2021 and 2020 – a first-round defeat. The ride was as bumpy as it was short. Marmol received a fair amount of criticism for his reliance on Ryan Helsley in Game 1 despite the closer having been physically compromised.
2023 will be Marmol’s sophomore season, but it won’t be status quo. He will break in new pitching, hitting and bench coaches. Whether that is reflected in his managing style or the end result of the season is to be determined.
- The end of the Yadi and Waino era? (actual stories nos. 6 and 4)
For the second consecutive year when I made my predictions, I wondered whether the upcoming season would be the last for long-time Cardinals teammates Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina.
In 2022, Wainwright was his steady, dependable self. While Molina’s behavior became erratic at times and his offense fell through the floor, the battery mates set several important MLB records together. The biggest was their 328 joint career starts.
The celebrated catcher decided to hang up his spikes after the season but the right-handed pitcher signed a new contract to return for 2023.
So I wonder once again… Will 2023 be Wainwright’s final year as an active player? It will surely feel odd with both Albert Pujols and Molina gone, but fans will have another year to celebrate Wainwright’s many accomplishments.
- Top Prospects and Friends Reach the Bigs
A year ago, the Cardinals organization’s top pitching and hitting prospects, Nolan Gorman and Matthew Liberatore, were on the cusp of making their respective MLB debuts. The infielder and left-handed pitcher are long-time friends back to their days as youth players in the Phoenix area.
Anticipation only increased when the second baseman began his 2022 loudly with home run after home run at Triple-A Memphis. He made his St. Louis debut on May 20 and got off to a fast start, with a 1.151 OPS in his first 10 contests that month.
Soon, however, the left-handed hitter settled into a pattern of relatively high strikeouts and diminished productivity. With regard to playing time on the middle infield, though Paul DeJong slid, Brendan Donovan emerged. Gorman became more of a platoon player, appearing at second in 66 of his 89 games played. From September 19 through the remainder of the regular season, he was sent back down to Memphis. During his time with St. Louis, Gorman contributed 0.5 fWAR – not terrible, but not as much as was expected from him.
Liberatore had put in a full season with Memphis in 2021 and was assumed to be the Cardinals’ sixth starter in waiting. Just a day after Gorman was called up the first time, so was his buddy.
However, neither with St. Louis nor with Memphis did Liberatore get into a groove during 2022.
He was up to the Cardinals and sent back down to the Redbirds seven times, including serving as the 27th man in doubleheaders. With St. Louis, he made seven starts and two relief appearances, logging a 5.97 ERA, 5.02 FIP and 0.0 fWAR. Red flags included five home runs yielded and 18 free passes issued in 34 2/3 innings. His batting average against of .304 was not inspiring, either.
Liberatore was with Memphis the majority of 2022 and made 22 starts with an ERA of 5.17, up over a run compared to his 2021 at the same level. Further, his monthly splits did not indicate progress during the season.
In just 12 months, the two have gone from the top prospects in the system with hopes of quickly becoming impact players to question marks heading into their sophomore MLB seasons. There is still plenty of time to change the trajectory.
- Matz’ Mastery?
The Cardinals’ major free agent signing of a year ago, left-handed pitcher Steven Matz, proved to be a disappointment in his first season with the club.
Signed for four years and $44 million, the 31-year-old made 10 starts and five late-season relief appearances with a 5.25 ERA over his 48 innings. Matz tore the MCL in his left knee on July 23. At the time, he had a 5.70 ERA. He returned in mid-September and worked out of the bullpen.
Matz will be back in the rotation mix in the spring and should be given every opportunity to earn his money.
- A Shortstop Solution
Clearing up the uncertainty at the shortstop position coming into 2022 focused either on the rebirth of Paul DeJong or the emergence of Edmundo Sosa. Neither happened, with the former struggling enough to have been sent down to Memphis for a time and the latter traded away.
I noted in the top story prediction that moving Tommy Edman to short was an option preferred by some, and that is precisely what occurred as the season evolved.
Edman shined with the glove at short, stabilizing the position and delivering an unexpected 5.3 fWAR. He comes into 2023 as the incumbent at the position. With an eye toward the future, top shortstop prospect Masyn Winn is expected to play the coming season at Triple-A.
Next up
In the final article of this annual series, I will outline my predictions for the top five St. Louis Cardinals stories of 2023.
The Cardinal Nation’s Top 10 Stories of 2022
The Cardinal Nation’s Top 10 St. Louis Cardinals Stories of 2022
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Brian Walton can be reached via email at brian@thecardinalnation.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.
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