Tuesday, June 30 was a very difficult day for Minor League Baseball and its fans, as the group of 160 domestic teams finally threw in the towel on the 2020 season.
— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) June 30, 2020
But this announcement is far from the end of problems facing minor league ball. No 2020 season will soon transition into fewer teams in 2021 and fewer players under contract.
Strike one – No 2020 season
For some weeks, Tuesday’s outcome had been clear. The reality of COVID-19 restrictions across the country, coupled with the need for fans in seats for minor league teams to secure any revenue doomed their hopes of playing.
The lack of supply of players by their MLB organizations as mentioned in the MiLB release was another factor, but not the telling one. After all, most minor leaguers are still being paid for not playing.
Strike two – Fewer teams in 2021
As inevitable as the end of the 2020 minor league season before it began is MLB’s plan for contraction of at least 40 minor league teams, starting in 2021. The combination of these occurrences means that fans in those communities are unable to say goodbye to their teams during one final summer – a real shame.
In terms of the MiLB teams themselves, the current affiliation model with MLB parents will change for 2021, as MLB takes greater control. But the most difficult aspect may be the loss of 2020 revenues since no minor league games will be played. These small businesses lack the liquidity and asset base of the massive MLB enterprises and some may not be able to return post-pandemic due to heavy financial losses.
What this means for MLB for 2021 is straightforward. Being managed as a business more than as a public trust with an eye on building their future, those running baseball believe they can more cost-efficiently run their machine to develop future major leaguers. Towns and their fans losing affiliated ball will be the losers.
Starting in 2021, the plan is for each of the 30 MLB organizations to field four full-season clubs plus rookie level teams in their Arizona and Florida complexes. In terms of the basic math, 160 today minus 40 equals 120, which equates to 30 organizations times four farm teams.
Any minor league teams on the chopping block that can be “saved” by local grassroots efforts and backroom maneuvering would just mean another town will lose its affiliation instead. 120 is 120.
The levels reportedly being disbanded are Short-Season Class A and Rookie Advanced. For the St. Louis Cardinals, this means the State College (PA) Spikes and the Johnson City (TN) Cardinals are expected to lose their affiliated status and will have to seek for a new role to survive.
Strike three – Fewer players
With fewer teams comes the need for fewer players. The bottom line as I see it for the Cardinals is that if the 2021 short-season would begin today, the organization would have a current excess of approximately 40 minor leaguers.
Here is my rough math using 2018 and 2019 as a guide. This data comes from The Cardinal Nation’s Roster Matrix (a free resource you should be using!).
| June 2018 | June 2019 | June 2020 | Pre-draft 2021 | ||
| Players in organization | 302 | 313 | 275 | 275 | estimate |
| minus St. Louis (active + IL) | 32 | 30 | 30 | estimate | |
| Minors players | 270 | 283 | 245 | ||
| Maximum active roster spots | 275 | 275 | 205 | ||
| “Excess” | -5 | 8 | 40 |
It shows that at this time the last two years, there was between five theoretical open roster spots and eight more players than active roster spots. The latter can be explained by those on injured lists and early international signings not effective until the next summer. Also, the lower minors often do not run with entirely full rosters of 35 active players.
The broad conclusion is that in the past, the organization had a balance between the number of players under contract and the available roster spots to place them. Makes sense.
But things could change for 2021.
Some players will leave as free agents this fall, but others will be signed. Also remember that before the next short-season schedule begins, the 2021 First-Year Player Draft will have been held. While the number of rounds has yet to be announced, many expect 20 to be the new total. In addition, the new international class, which was scheduled to begin July 2, has been deferred to January. This means a considerable number of players will sign, many of whom will need to be assigned to a team roster.
Putting all these potential pluses and minuses aside, the most logical way to drop by 40 players is to release them.
This is not unprecedented, nor should it be surprising.
In late May, many teams across MLB released a large quantity of minor leaguers. In the case of the Cardinals, 33 players were cut loose, the largest number let go at once in the 12 years I have been tracking every system roster movement. The combination of no 2020 minor league season and the team’s payroll burden of paying players for not playing this season, along with the knowledge of fewer teams next season all had to be drivers.
What may be ahead?
Will another mass release occur in the future? Does it matter how the cuts are made?
Whether the reductions occur in one fell swoop or via a series of smaller moves, the end result would be the same. With the current structure, the Cardinals will have 70 fewer roster spots in which to place minor leaguers – 205 in 2021 versus 275 prior.
But could the current team configuration change?
About a third of major league organizations already have a second rookie level team playing in their spring training complexes in Arizona or Florida. These teams participate in the short-season Arizona and Gulf Coast Leagues (GCL), respectively.
Could the Cardinals join them, adding a second GCL team for 2021?
By doing so, they could reclaim half of the roster spots lost in the shedding of State College and Johnson City, at a lower overall cost to the organization, since the players would be at the team-owned Jupiter, FL facility.
A second GCL team could also help relieve what appears to be a significant player bottleneck in the system going forward. As it is on paper, without State College and Johnson City, there will be great pressure on the 35-player maximum GCL roster to serve many needs.
The top players from two feeder teams in the Dominican Summer League normally play their first US-based games in the GCL. The level also hosts many of the current years’ draft picks, especially the high schoolers, along with collegiate pitchers, who due to their heavy spring workload need to ramp up slowly in their first partial professional season.
Finally, without two levels in between, the jump for players to make from the GCL directly into full-season Class A would present a huge obstacle for most minor leaguers. In the past, the few to accomplish this were the organization’s very best prospects, while other really good players were unable to handle the significantly higher level of competition in the Midwest League. Two GCL teams, perhaps structured by experience level, could help smooth out some of these bumps.
However, to do so, considerable expense would be involved and it is unclear if the Cardinals are even considering such an idea. Still, it has to be less than fielding two teams at State College and Johnson City, while keeping more players in the developmental pipeline than cutting 70 roster spots at once.
Not to be forgotten is the collateral damage in this drive for efficiency – baseball fans in State College, Johnson City and at least 38 other communities across the USA slated to lose their local affiliated team.
Despite all the continued uncertainty across Minor League Baseball, one thing is certain. The pain driven by dramatic change has just begun and the pressure will only intensify.
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