I am one who bristles every time I read that so-and-so was “snubbed” after missing out when honors of any type are announced, whether all-star selections, Gold Glove Awards or Hall of Fame inductees.
The reality is that people have their own criteria for recognition that is subjective by definition and as such, there will never be 100 percent agreement. Almost always, there are more deserving candidates than spots to put them. For these reasons, I generally go out of my way to give voters the benefit of the doubt.
However, in the case of the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame, I believe that Keith Hernandez is being unjustly treated by a large segment of fan voters. I won’t go quite that far with Steve Carlton, though I believe his accomplishments with St. Louis are not being adequately considered. There are similarities (as well as differences) in the qualifications of the two.
As most everyone reading this should already know, the 2020 Cardinals Hall of Fame Class was announced Friday night. If by chance you missed it, check out this article, then return here, please.
Tom Herr, John Tudor and Bill White Join St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame
Among former Cardinals greats on the Modern Era fan ballot who did not finish in the top two in the 2020 voting are repeat candidates Hernandez and Carlton.
Keith’s “buts”
Hernandez was exceptionally productive as a Cardinal, winner of a National League Most Valuable Player Award, an NL batting title and was a key member of the 1982 World Series champions. In 10 seasons with St. Louis, he logged 34.4 WAR, which is more than this year’s fan inductees Tom Herr and John Tudor combined over 15 years. To this day, Keith is considered one of the best defensive first basemen in MLB history.
But…
And there is always a but. In fact, for Hernandez, there are two major “buts” working against his Cardinals Hall of Fame candidacy. The first is drug use and ensuing turbulence that culminated in his trade. The second is that he became a hated opponent as a member of the New York Mets in the second chapter of his career.
Wondering the percentage breakdown of fan opposition to those two “buts,” I posted the following 24-hour Twitter poll Friday night.
Which is a bigger inhibitor to Keith Hernandez' #stlcards Hall of Fame candidacy?
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) May 23, 2020
While I understand that some people may have deep and intermingled feelings about both, I really wanted to get a feeling for which of the two points is stickier as Cardinals fans view it. With over 900 votes cast, Hernandez’ identification and success with the Mets led, 54 percent to 46 percent. (Thank you to all who voted.)
Even though his drug use and deterioration of the situation in St. Louis was not the number 1 factor, its 46 percent support is strong. This continued focus on Hernandez’ mistakes and their ramifications indicate that many fans will not forgive and forget. This is really too bad, but Hernandez was guilty as charged. His behavior directly led to his messy departure. It was a different time and was dealt with accordingly then.
Over 35 years later, Hernandez is still on the hook for his transgressions with some, despite the fact that the key principals in the matter, he and manager Whitey Herzog, buried the hatchet long ago.
Update: In Sunday’s Post-Dispatch, Herzog shared his current thoughts with columnist Benjamin Hochman. Here are two excerpts which summarize his position.
“I think Keith Hernandez very much deserves to be in the Cardinals Hall of Fame,” he said.
“I thought Keith Hernandez would get in the Cardinal Hall of Fame this year, I thought he and Tudor would,” said Herzog, 88, the legendary Cardinals manager and general manager in the ’80’s.
Hernandez eventually paid the price in the public spotlight, as well, over a decade before McGwire (a Cardinals Hall of Famer), Sosa, Bonds and the rest.
March 8, 1986: Commissioner Peter Ueberroth punishes Keith Hernandez at the 1985-86 cocaine drug trials. The @Mets 1B is ordered to give 10% of his salary to a drug rehab center and 200hrs of community service and random driug tests the rest of his career: https://t.co/C6S3UFuUso pic.twitter.com/B4Q4lXgzgA
— MetsRewind (@metsrewind) March 8, 2020
I am most troubled by the majority who use Hernandez’ time as a Met against his Cardinals Hall of Fame case. First of all, he did not choose where he was traded. Herzog sent him to an also-ran opponent, but one in the same division that was on the cusp of emerging. This led to the Cardinals getting their collective nose rubbed in it time and time again over the next seven years.
Do fans really expect that Hernandez would and should have stopped trying to excel at baseball after being traded? Beating the opponent, whatever team it may have been, was his job. His success with the “Pond Scum” illustrated that he was a great player who confirmed it with two different teams. Even so, his best years were with St. Louis.
I suspect recency bias is coming into play for at least some, and in this case, the bias is negative. I suggest that if Hernandez had played with the Mets first and the Cardinals second, the lasting memories would likely be different. (And this is not even taking into account that some number of fans were not yet following the Cardinals during his time with the team, 1974-1983.)
I am not criticizing anyone for this natural phenomenon. We remember better what we experience more recently. The most important point when considering performance over the annals of time is that the sequence of events should not matter, however.
Compare Hernandez to Tom Herr, a deserving Cardinals Hall selection in 2020. Both spent 10 seasons with the Cards, but after leaving St. Louis, Herr bounced around to four teams in his final three and a half seasons and then retired. In other words, there was no “Pond Scum” blemish to mar his post-Cardinals years, which totaled just 4.4 bWAR. In contrast, after leaving St. Louis, Hernandez accrued 25.9 bWAR.
In a direct comparison of their Cardinals-only results, Hernandez’ decade was substantially better, 34.4 bWAR to 19.1. This is likely a big reason why Hernandez was on the fan ballot years before Herr. This is meant with no disrespect to Herr, who was up for consideration for good reason, but comparing candidates is something we all do before we cast our votes.
Especially in the context of the Cardinals Hall of Fame, what Hernandez did elsewhere and when he did it should be separate from what he accomplished with St. Louis. His Cardinals results are more than Hall-worthy, yet he has been passed over in all seven years of the fan vote. This has gone long enough.
For his part, Hernandez identifies himself as a Cardinal.
Don’t forget Lefty
Though Carlton was with St. Louis seven years versus Hernandez’ 10, it is longer than a number of others already inducted with as good or better results. Carlton’s solid St. Louis resume includes a World Championship, three All-Star Game selections and 20.9 bWAR in seven seasons.
I sense the left-hander is also being overlooked because he played for St. Louis even before Hernandez (1965-1971) and especially because he was just too good later on in his first-ballot Hall of Fame career. As most probably know, in the pre-free agency days, Carlton was exiled to Philadelphia in a salary dispute over $10,000 prior to his age 28 season.
Again, that Carlton was traded within the division was no fault of his own. That he went on to regularly defeat the Cardinals for years – to the tune of a 38-14 record with a 2.98 career ERA vs. St. Louis – just rubbed salt in the festering wound that may have been the single largest contributor to the down decade of the 1970’s. It lives on as the worst trade in team history.
Why should Carlton be blamed if he may have had greater motivation facing the Cardinals? His .731 winning percentage vs. St. Louis is his best against any opponent he faced more than four times in his 24 years in the majors. His 2.98 career ERA versus the Cardinals was even better than the 3.10 ERA he logged over his seven seasons on the mound for them!
Yes, Carlton is a Phillie first and foremost. Yes, he owned the Cardinals for a long time and it hurt. But I also think Carlton is a Cardinals Hall of Famer solely based upon his prior results with St. Louis.
Why a one-team association only?
As is the case for all Modern Era nominees, it is ultimately up to the fan voters. I just wish the decisions could take contribution more into account than other factors not entirely under the players’ control.
Specifically, that anyone with seven to 10 stellar seasons with Team A should be labeled a one-team player only associated with Team B is narrow thinking I do not support. I would have no problem whatsoever with a player being a member of multiple team Halls of Fame if he is worthy.
In fact, Nolan Ryan is in three of them – the Astros, Rangers and Angels Halls of Fame. Randy Johnson, Reggie Jackson, Gary Carter and another Carlton, Carlton Fisk, are among the many greats whose accomplishments have been celebrated by two different teams via Hall of Fame and/or retired number honors.
I think it is overdue that Cardinals fans consider this kind of multi-team recognition acceptable, too.
What is next?
Some have suggested the voting process should be changed. I don’t think that is the way to go, however.
Any system will have its bumps, whether fan-driven or writer-driven or owner-driven or numbers-driven or some mix of them. There is no magic answer, but ultimately, it is a fan-oriented Hall. I am all for engaging as many people as possible on the subject of team history, even if I may not always think a given year’s results are optimal. All of the deserving candidates should get in eventually and when they do, we will soon forget who went in ahead of who.
In the meantime, let’s keep the dialogue going and maybe next year, the record 113,000 votes can be surpassed!
Bonus for members of The Cardinal Nation
St. Louis Cardinals in Rookie Complex Level – Top Teams and Standouts – 1964-2019
Now Available! – TCN’s New 2020 Prospect Guide
232 pages, 97,000 words, over 60 player capsules, history and much more – in both PDF and spiral-bound book versions. Foreword by Dan McLaughlin. Order your copy today!
Brian Walton can be reached via email at brian@thecardinalnation.com or for fastest turnaround, pose your questions on The Cardinal Nation’s members-only forum. Follow Brian on Twitter.
© 2020 The Cardinal Nation, thecardinalnation.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.