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I’m gonna miss Contreras. He was a perfect fit and did everything they asked. Even after the pitchers tried throwing him under the bus and Ollie and Mo wanted to move him to OF, he stayed positive.
I thought I read Dobbins wasn’t expected back at the start of the year due to his surgery. I look at him more as a mid-season audition/replacement for when a starter goes down for injury or ineffectiveness if he looks ok rehabbing At Memphis first. It’s not like he has a long history to fall back on. The real 8 million dollar prospect may have been the Venezuelan hurler.
I loved Contreras but this was a good deal long term.
Dobbins it appears to be a little better Mikolas at $800k so that helps.
Fajardo is obviously why the Cards gave up 8M, the other minor leaguer doesn’t really excite me.
Fair deal and a win for both sides as of today.They have to sign or trade for a corner OFer with so much uncertainty around Nootbar and Walker…. Once again, to make sure 63-70 wins is at least possible.
MLB.com has already installed Fajardo as the Cardinals 9th best prospect.
FYI…Clarke was earlier put as the 7th best.
Cardinals saved $64.5 million on the Gray/Contreras trades over the life of their deals, and a $26 million saving this year ($15 million Gray/ $11 million Contreras)
Gray was owed $35 million this year and they owed him $5 million if they declined option next year, Cardinals paid $20 million
Contreras was owed $19 million this year and $42.5 million over the rest of his deal, Cardinals paid $8 million
Yes, that is what it is about. Play poorer, fewer fans come. Fewer fans mean less revenue. Less revenue means less expense. Less expense means getting rid of big contracts.
The only way to break the cycle (with this ownership) is to develop inexpensive talent that plays better. Then, the cycle is reversed. Play better, more fans come. More fans mean more revenue. More revenue means more expense. More expense means spending to get better players to add to the inexpensive ones.
The big question is how long this reversal will take…
Mrperkins
I thought I read Dobbins wasn’t expected back at the start of the year due to his surgery. I look at him more as a mid-season audition/replacement for when a starter goes down for injury or ineffectiveness if he looks ok rehabbing At Memphis first. It’s not like he has a long history to fall back on. The real 8 million dollar prospect may have been the Venezuelan hurler.
That would be very surprising for an ACL tear that was repaired in July. He should be fine for pitching by March/April. I’ve torn my ACL twice and was cleared around 6 months, March is 7 months post-op.
https://x.com/IanCundall/status/2002920990192656525
I can’t get the link to show in the post.
So, for those that don’t want to click:
Don’t think it’s a coincidence that the three pitchers the Red Sox dealt for Wilson Contreras all have fastballs that struggle to miss bats consistently. The highest whiff rate of the trio was 16%. MLB average was 21-22%.
Hunter Dobbins 11.9%
Yhoiker Fajardo 12.9%
Blake Aita 16%I’m assuming that the Gray $20M is coming from this year’s budget, and that the Contreras $8M is too. So for this year, the Cards save $15M on Gray and $11M on Contreras, for a $26M savings. They combined for 3.9 WAR (BRef) to 6.4 WAR (FG). So the cost per win ranges from $4.06M to $6.67M. The Cards totaled 24.7 WAR (BRef) to 30.4 WAR (FG) in 2025. They have already traded away 15.7% (BRef) to 21.1% (FG) of their WAR for next year, rising to 26.7% (BRef) to 30.6% (FG) if they trade away Donovan as well.
For an already mediocre team (probably 70ish win true talent), this is a huge blow. It’s very likely that this will be the worst Cardinal team that many (any?) of us have ever seen. There will be no stars (maybe another bullpen guy will be the All Star), and an outside shot that no player achieves a 2 WAR season, which is sort of unfathomable. It will take some fight from the team to avoid 100 losses.
Then, the cycle is reversed. Play better, more fans come. More fans mean more revenue. More revenue means more expense. More expense means spending to get better players to add to the inexpensive ones.
I am not sure the Cardinals are ever going to go back to the model where they are spending 100% of their own money as opposed to collecting welfare from other MLB owners.
Baseball America
Blake Aita was set to rank 28th in the Red Sox system entering 2026.
Now, he heads to the Cardinals.
His best pitch is a sweeper with above-average potential.
Dobbins was ranked #11 heading into 2025. So we got roughly the #9, #11, and #28 prospects from them. Plus Fitts was up to #10th and Clarke at #5.
I’m assuming that the Gray $20M is coming from this year’s budget, and that the Contreras $8M is too.
Correct on Gray but Cot’s is showing $4M of the Contreras money for 2025 and $4M for 2026.
stlcard25 wrote:
For an already mediocre team (probably 70ish win true talent), this is a huge blow. It’s very likely that this will be the worst Cardinal team that many (any?) of us have ever seen. There will be no stars (maybe another bullpen guy will be the All Star), and an outside shot that no player achieves a 2 WAR season, which is sort of unfathomable. It will take some fight from the team to avoid 100 losses.
Totally agree with this stlcard25. This might be 1990 all over again. If somebody gave us 75 wins next year at this point I would jump for joy.
r/Ratsbuddy
Cardinals have cut roughly $86 million in payroll in 2 years according to Spotrac, even w/ them paying Gray and Contreras $24 million ($20 mill Gray/$4mill Contreras) total this year.
As of now the current 40 man will make around $86 million, with the likely trades of Donovan and Romero they save at a minimum $12 million. Then if they ship Arrenado they may save 1/2 his deal so possibly $8 million
That may put them at 2004 payroll levels
Dear Chaim,
I still have faith, though it is looking somewhat worrisome. Just a reminder that there are other teams with minor league prospects.
Sincerely,
A 60 year Cardinals fan.Trade Arenado and this is a fine lineup for what we are trying to accomplish.
So what is the current MLB roster now assuming no more trades? I know that isn’t a good assumption, but just trying to see what they have now and what other trades may happen
C – Herrera, Pages (or Crooks / Pages?)
1B – Burleson
2B – Donovan, Saggasee
3B – Arenado, Wetherholt (Wetherholt will start at 2B or 3B)
SS – Winn
LF – Nootbaar
CF – Scott, Church
RF – Walker
DH – Gorman (or Herrera with Crooks at C)That still feels like a weak OF and DH although one I could see them running with. And then one of Arenado or Donovan most likely is gone to clear a starting spot for Wetherholt.
There will be no stars
Wetherholt, Winn, and Herrera, and possibly Burleson, may not be All Stars yet, but all four have star power.
Dobbins could end up being a good get. I dont expect greatness but im hopeful for consistency. Though with pitchers lije him you have to have a great defense. We will see. I dont expect him there opening day, prob around may or june before hes in shape. I dont really care how many games this team wins next season. If we win 50 games but if it helps the process of getting us a better minor league system and players to get this organization back to winning baseball not hopeful baseball im all for it. I might even try to make a game now that i feel the team may be making progress but still more to see. If i start seeing them spend money on 7also rans just to see if they can win now, ill be back to where i was.
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