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I don’t really follow all those expectations and and even where they rank as prospects. I decide once I see them at the big league level and that’s when I make my analysis. Carlson never looked that great from my eye test. He might end up there but I haven’t seen anything to suggest that. I’ll have the same approach with walker
Willie, I’ve noticed that many who evaluate minors prospects here, can get locked in to their own evaluation, and regardless of how a player debuts, their evaluations are slow to change, if at all.
For instance, Nootbaar. He must have overachieved to date, because his mlb effectiveness is greater than his prospect ranking. He’s due to regress is the thought process, based on his past minors evaluation.
Woodford is another. He can’t be this good at mlb because his effectiveness is greater than a 2 or 3 yr old minors evaluation.
That type thought process leaves no room for a player to continue to develop at mlb, and possibly surpass his minors numbers.
That’s where I believe a lets wait and see what happens (at mlb) is a more flexible evaluation, not clouded by past judgements.
JJ, my evaluation will definitely change if Carlson makes some changes and can be more consistent in a good way at the plate but that wouldn’t change my evaluation now on or then. I agree that too much is made of guys one way or another in the minors. I’ve rated Woodford as a solid pitcher since I’ve seen him. If I was making decisions, he would be consistently used out of the bullpen and if a starter went down, he would be taking that spot til that player returned or we got someone better.
I don’t have a method for evaluating minor league players because I don’t follow the minor leagues. And I don’t pass any sort of judgement on any rookie player until I’ve seen him collect roughly 350 to 400 PA’s in the Big Leagues. However, I have made an exception or two to the PA rule. One that will always stand out is a guy that had only 69 PA’s in ’13 and was caught napping and picked off of 1B to end a WS game with our best hitter representing the tying run at the plate. I’m aware that’s harsh, but I never really regained any confidence in him after that mistake. In any event, I’m sure a player’s minor league performance can somewhat illustrate his potential, and if I lived in Memphis or Springfield I’m certain I’d have more interest, but I’d rather wait until he saunters on to a Big League field until I form an opinion as to what type of ballplayer he may turn out to be. I’m reasonably certain most players feel the same.
I did not independently verify this, but it is very notable if accurate….
If Jordan Walker makes the big league roster to start the season, he’ll be the first @Cardinals player since Rick Ankiel in 2000 to debut at 20 years of age or younger.
— Ryan (@The_Ryan_Shull) February 7, 2023
What’s the over/under for PA total for Walker in ST? I’d have to guess about 2.5 per game which translates to about 80 PA’s.
Whoops…I didn’t take into account that both O’Neill and Nootz will be participating in the WBC and could be absent until as late as March 21. Walker should get a good long look.
I read somewhere that Walker will get maximum ABs during spring training. He should fair well against the minor leaguers that the team will face during the first part of the schedule. As the big league candidates start getting into games, we’ll see if he is ready. Normally spring training is not much to put any faith into, but for Walker all eyes will be watching at every at-bat. His OF defense will also be monitored. Yes it will put some pressure on him but that pressure will be watched carefully also.
He’ll have to overcome the pressure at some point anyway… especially since he is a highly valued prospect and the expectations for him seems to be growing as we get closer to the ST games.
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