January 12, 2020 at 6:46 pm #1192741982 willieParticipantPaid - Annual
under current ownership, no the cardinals aren’t going to be elite. an elite team is one that expects and tries to win it all every year. the cards ownership generally just hopes they win.January 12, 2020 at 8:01 pm #119276gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
We all salivate over Carlson, Gorman, Liberatore, Herrera, and Thompson and dream of a potential run of championships but things can change so quickly.
It seems like yesterday we had a young core bursting onto the scene led by CMart, Wong, Wacha, Miller, Rosenthal, and Taveras with the promise of a possible dynasty. It didn’t happen as some of those players just didn’t pan out the way we thought they would.January 12, 2020 at 8:19 pm #119280
When you consider that Wacha, Miller, CMart and Rosenthal were all affected by injury and Taveras was killed in an accident, that can really skew the results. Also, Miller was traded for 1 year of return on investment.January 12, 2020 at 8:25 pm #119281gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
I understand what happened forsch. My point is that just when you think you are set up for a great run things can change quickly. Promising prospects can disappoint so it is wise to have a good balance of prospects and proven veterans. Sometimes you even have to look outside the organization. Shudder the thought…January 12, 2020 at 8:32 pm #119284stlcard25ParticipantPaid - Annual
It’s crazy that with essentially 5 guys who were all top 100 pitching prospects (Miller, Cmart, Wacha, Reyes and Rosie) and several of them potential aces, only Carlos ever got close to his potential as a starter for more than one year.January 12, 2020 at 9:11 pm #119290
Bob, I understand what you are saying. A pitching rotation of Flaherty, Hudson, CMart and Mikolas has the start of an elite rotation. But there are 29 players listed and 9 of them are starting pitchers. That is a good basis to make a trade package. It also lists a bunch of relievers. Relievers turn over quickly and there are usually spots filled from outside. Again, another basis to use in trade. There is also depth to cover injuries.
When looking at the player side to make an improvement, you can pinpoint only a few positions to upgrade. Catcher and 1B will be set unless Yadi retires. DeJong will be at SS unless they make a move for an elite SS and either trade DeJong or move him to 3B. I don’t see why you trade for someone at 2B considering that is not a position that any team has elite talent. Albies and Altuve are the closest ones to be considered “team carrying” elite. That is basically leaving OF and 3B. If you are going with long term upgrade at 3B, Gorman will probably be used as a trade chip. Out of the 5 OFs listed, there is a good chance to field a very good, above average OF. Overall, I see the opportunity to have at least 4 positions filled with 3.5 WAR or above players.January 12, 2020 at 9:20 pm #119292
stlcard25, tinstaappJanuary 12, 2020 at 9:21 pm #119293kscardfanParticipantFree
Add Arenado, bring back Ozuna and you are there.January 12, 2020 at 11:30 pm #119305Brian WaltonKeymasterPaid - Annual
It’s crazy that with essentially 5 guys who were all top 100 pitching prospects (Miller, Cmart, Wacha, Reyes and Rosie) and several of them potential aces, only Carlos ever got close to his potential as a starter for more than one year.
Kaminsky makes six.
But then there are Marco Gonzales, Weaver, Alcantara, Hudson and Flaherty to potentially help balance it out.
The organization has had a lot of top 100 pitching talent in the last decade…January 13, 2020 at 12:41 am #119307Bob ReedParticipantFree
“But then there are Marco Gonzales, Weaver, Alcantara, Hudson and Flaherty to potentially help balance it out. The organization has had a lot of top 100 pitching talent in the last decade…”
Well said, Brian. And Lance Lynn and Zac Gallen and Jordan Hicks as well. Although of course none of them ever even made the back end of anyone’s top 100 list. And by the by, Dakota Hudson never made the top 100 at MLB Pipeline or Baseball Prospectus. Or Keith Law or Fangraphs, I’m sure, since they both pegged him as a reliever.
As Brian implied, during the Mozeliak decade-plus, the Redbird pitching prospect outcomes overall have probably matched if not exceeded the industry-wide expectations. Here’s a dirty little secret about prospect lists: if all prospects were evaluated exactly right, there’d be guys ranked in the top 100 who only wind up with a handful of career WAR. Like 5 or 6 WAR for their entire careers.
Here’s a rough guideline for how their careers would actually shake out, if all minor leaguers were placed on a top 100 list with flawless foresight.
Top 8-10 prospects, 60+ WAR and the Hall Of Fame.
Next 10-12 prospects, 30+ WAR, Hall Of Very Good.
Next 12-15 prospects, 20-30 WAR. Cool rule of thumb is the “20/30 Law.” A prospect ranked 20th should accrue ~30 career WAR, and one ranked 30th should accumulate 20 career WAR, give or take.
Next 15-20 prospects, 12-18 WAR.
Next 20-30 prospects, 8-12 WAR.
Rest of the top 100, about 4-6 WAR.
We hear “top 100 prospect!” and we think a guy will be at least an above average regular, or mid-rotation starter, or longtime closer. But that’s more like top 50 and up. If not top 40.
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