Why Jordan Walker will start the season in AAA – not MLB

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  • #214597
    Baseball Banter
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    There are several reasons for this that can be expanded upon, but the length would be excessive, so I’ll simply list a few of them.

    1. The Cardinals already have a crowded outfield and roster, so playing time and at-bats will be limited. Walker needs to play every day. The Cardinals need to see what they have in the outfield, before adding Walker to the mix. They will also need to gauge who they’ll keep and who they might trade midseason – if necessary – to improve the team. Showcasing the talent can spike the interest of potential trading partners. These trades could also clear space for minor league prospects.

    2. Walker’s torrid initial batting average has been dropping as the pitchers get caught up to the batters. Walker was batting over .400 at the start of spring, but has now dropped to .295 with his 0 for 4 performance today (3-23-23) against the NY Yankees. It will drop more as the quality of pitching deepens, due to the return of WBC players, ongoing roster cuts, and a focus on getting MLB pitchers more innings.

    3. Walker’s average will likely decline further at the MLB level as teams get more exposure to him, studying his performance during games and via video tape to look for weaknesses they can exploit. He’ll also see a significant spike in the quality of pitching, compared to what he faced this spring and in AA last year.

    4. Jordan Walker’s Age and Experience. Jordan Walker will be 21-years-old on May 22, 2023. He has only played two years in the minor leagues at A and AA level. He has never played in AAA. He is a raw talent who likely needs more experience to mature and hone his skills, while playing at an elevated level of competition – AAA.

    5. The MLB Service Time calculator is a factor, though it is usually not openly acknowledged by the Front Offices of MLB clubs. If Walker is on the MLB roster less than 172 days this year, he will not meet the requirement for a year of MLB service time in 2023. This will give the Cardinals at least six more years of control – three pre-arbitration years in which they are only required to pay him the MLB minimum, and three arbitration years.

    Six years of MLB service time make a player eligible for free agency and three or more years of MLB service time – but less than six years – makes a player eligible for salary arbitration, if they do not have a signed contract for the next season.

    In 2023, the MLB season starts on March 30 and ends October 1. That totals 186 days. If Jordan Walker or other prospects are off the MLB club for 15 days or longer, this ensures the team will gain a seventh year of control over the player before they can reach free agency.

    The MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) provides limited incentives and penalties for MLB clubs not to hold back their top prospects. Jordan Walker meets the ranking criteria, but is unlikely to make the jump from AA to the elevated CBA thresholds to activate rewards or penalties.

    Summary
    As exciting as it would be to see Jordan Walker remain with the St. Louis Cardinals on opening day, this could significantly undermine his development and potential.

    Jordan Walker’s amazing performance during spring training should boost his confidence that he can excel in MLB, motivating him to continue working on all aspects of his game to make himself an elite player. He still has a lot to learn and that can best be done in the minors, without the added pressure of the media, fans, and inflated expectations.

    There is also a question of maturity that can add wisdom, experience, skill, and mental toughness to help him succeed during his rookie season in the MLB and throughout his career – on and off the field.

    Jordan Walker has shown terrific talent and potential this spring that is worth waiting for. One sign of maturity – for ballplayers and fans – is the ability to delay instant gratification to obtain greater rewards, later. As fans, we can look forward to tracking Walker’s progress, while understanding the need for him to establish a solid foundation from which to excel.

    #214599
    blingboy
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    As ST goes along the hitters face more and more MLB pitchers and fewer NRIs and such. While it is true that Walker will acclimate to the pitching, the pitching will also acclimate to him. We will have a chance to see what happens.

    I haven’t seem much game action, can anyone say how he looks defensively in the outfield?

    #214601
    bicyclemike
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    I think the wise decision is to have Junior start in AAA this year, assuming all of our regular garden tenders are healthy. This will give him lower pressure experience at a high level, plus give the veterans, some of whom are young vets, regular reps to get into a groove.

    #214605
    1toughdominican
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    So, given the choice of Walker, Burleson, or Yepez, who’s the best option for a 4th OF’er? Burleson’s glove may be fine, but he didn’t exactly rip it up with the bat in his limited chances last season. Yepez generates a bit of production with the bat, but wears the proverbial oven mitt in LF. My choice is to give the young man Jordan Walker the chance he’s earned and have him with the Big League ballclub on opening day.

    #214606
    Ratsbuddy
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    As I said in my prediction thread post, Walker will be a callup around the Memorial Day timeframe.

    #214608
    1toughdominican
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    I’d say that’s a good guess, Rats. If either Carlson falters out the gate, or O’Neill blows a tie rod end lifting a heavy dumb-bell, Walker gets a ticket to a Big League OF.

    #214710
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    As Roseanne Roseannadanna often said on Saturday Night Live, after making inaccurate statements, “Never mind.”

    This was on MLB, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, and other outlets today,

    This is from MLB:

    “Cards set to add top prospect Walker to Opening Day roster”

    “‘The 6-foot-5, 220-pound Walker was informed on Saturday afternoon that he had made the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster and would be added to the team’s 40-man roster,’ team president John Mozeliak said. The Cardinals are expected to announce their official 26-man Opening Day roster on Sunday morning, and Walker will be a fixture on a Cardinals team…”

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    I still question how much playing time Walker will get with the crowded outfield and roster, but this is what many of the fans want – Walker on the roster to start the season.

    After going 0 for 2 today (3-25-23), Walker is down to .286, but hopefully he can catch fire in MLB. At least it will give him a taste of the Big Show, while adding some additional excitement for the fans.

    We’re all pulling for Walker to excel, but I suspect he will end up spending some time in AAA this year to work on mechanics and / or to get more playing time.

    If Walker is off the MLB roster for 15 days of more during this season, he will not qualify for a year of Service Time in 2023 – unless he gets it under the steep CBA qualifier – giving the Cardinals a seventh year of control.

    #214711
    1toughdominican
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    The same article claims that Packy Naughton and Taylor Motter will be in St. Louis for the opener. I’m surprised Packy made it and Bling mentioned he thought Motter had a more than decent chance. The only way I would have guessed that Motter’s name would be on the 26 man to start the season is if his first name were Manny…

    #214712
    1toughdominican
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    Best I can tell, even Pujols had 15 PA’s at the AAA level before stepping into a Big League batter’s box for the first time. He hit .214 with only 3 hits…Haha!

    #214715
    Brian Walton
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    It’s pretty simple as I see it. Walker will play every day if he keeps hitting . If not they’ll send him back to Memphis.

    #214718
    1toughdominican
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    I’m not so sure even if he hits he’ll play every day, BW. In fact, I’ll be surprised if he’s in the starting line-up on opening day. But you’re right. If he hits when he plays, he stays…

    #214736
    stlcard25
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    There’s no way they’re bringing Walker up to be a bench warmer. He’s gonna play the majority of the time somewhere…or he’ll be back at Memphis. I’m sure the Cards will rotate Carlson in at times, but it’s pretty clear that it will be at the expense of O’Neill and perhaps Nootbaar. I could see it being:

    Walker 5/6 starts
    Nootbaar 5/6 starts
    O’Neill 4/6 starts
    Carlson 4/6 starts

    #214738
    blingboy
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    I don’t think so TD and BW. Hype skews the decision making process away from a rational results based approach. He will have to not hit for a long time to squeegee off that much hype.

    Lets hope he does not find out MLB pitching is different than AA. Maybe if nobody mentions it he won’t notice.

    #214745
    Brian Walton
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    What you call hype, bb, many others call results. Walker is a special player. BTW, he said he will wear #18.

    stlcard25, good point but also don’t forget about the DH position. The two guys with four OF starts in your example could easily each take one DH day every week. In that case, everyone could play five of six.

    #214747
    Brian Walton
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    I may not have predicted the right uniform number for Walker, but I did see this coming…

    #214748
    Brian Walton
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    #214749
    Brian Walton
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    Someone should give the Cardinals credit for not manipulating service time. It could have been a better business decision to wait to bring him up, but they want to win now. And it seems pretty clear that Walker is already MLB starting material.

    #214753
    Brian Walton
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    #214755
    1toughdominican
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    I may be in the minority, BW, but I serve up credit and accolades for the solitary reason that you mentioned in the last part of the second sentence of your comment. As a fan, I have no interest at all in mundane and wearisome business decisions. My entire focus is placed on following my favorite team and watching them win baseball games. I afford credit when a manager calls for a hit and run, or a player lays down a perfect bunt at precisely the right time to win a ballgame. As you mentioned, Walker earned a place on the 26 man. To me, the decision to place the young man on the Big League roster only follows suit and applies to the natural order of things concerning the desire to win baseball games. Everything else is small potatoes and insignificant. Any so called “business decision” should be entirely based on the simple philosophy of Al Davis…”Just win, baby.”

    #214756
    Oquendo11
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    DH will be a scramble.

    4 OF that should be everyday players (would be on most teams).

    3 middle infielders for 2 positions.

    A catcher that will frequently DH to rest his legs.

    Corner infielders that will occasionally DH, to get a half day off.

    Not to mention Alec and Motter.

    #214758
    1toughdominican
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    Yepez being optioned is surprising to me in so far as the DH slot. If Gorman proves ineffective, who occupies the DH slot in the order when Goldy, Nado and Contreras are manned up at their normal positions? I’m guessing if Gorman falters, he trades places with Yepez.

    #214759
    Mrperkins
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    So Walker starts season on roster. Let’s say he struggles for 2 weeks and is sent down. Tears it up while down there for 3 weeks (long enough to delay his clock), then comes back up and wins ROY. Do we get the pick and the year? Sounds like ideal situation.

    #214763
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    Based upon the MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), as a top-100 prospect, if Walker wins the Rookie of the Year award, or comes in second, he will be credited with a full year of MLB Service Time, even if he was on the roster for less than the required 172 days.

    By strict interpretation of the agreement, the Cardinals would not get the CBA’s Prospect Promotion Incentives (PPI) draft pick at the end of the first round for having Walker – one of the top-100 prospects – finish in the top three for Rookie of the Year voting, because he was not physically on the MLB roster for 172 or more days.

    The issue of having an “actual” versus “credited” Full Year of Service time – and the benefit of the draft pick – needs to be made more clear. Perhaps, it was clarified in the agreement. It’s been awhile since I looked it over, but it seems like MLB would not reward a team if their top-100 prospect had to come in the side door to get the full year of Service Time.

    #214797
    jj-cf-stl
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    BW, the FO also knows they can demote Walker at any time and gain that extra year back they lost by not manipulating his time out of ST.

    Walker is no lock to have 6 consecutive full seasons in a row, and that 7th season is much more valuable than avoiding super2 $ and the marginal increase in arb1 thru arb3 salaries.

    If ever there was an extension candidate, Walker fits the bill, which makes the “manipulation” strategies a moot point, but the FO knows this already too. I’ll hold my praise / applause until I see how that 2/14 BB/K against non-WBC pitchers works out over the first half.

    Walker will likely slug and rbi as Gorman did, which sells tickets, but I expect a demotion after the league sees him for 300 PA’s.

    #214798
    TexasCard
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    I had little doubt Walker would make the opening day roster when I saw him play last year. He is that special and no, i don’t see him going back down. The one I’m waiting for is Winn. I think he is ready as well and my hope is they move on from Dejong in short order and put this kid at SS. His bat will catch up like Ozzies’ did but that glove has the potential to be special now. IMHO the future is now.

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