- This topic has 23 replies, 9 voices, and was last updated 2 years, 9 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Besides the Flaherty for Arenado rumors, what could the Cards expect to get back should they decide to trade him?
Trading Flaherty doesn’t seem like the kind of move the Cardinals would normally make. A more likely scenario is they will go year to year through arbitration then make him a qualifying offer before his free agency year.
If he’s a 5war for the next 4 seasons, that’s 160mil field value. If he draws 50mil salary during those seasons, that’s 110mil surplus value.
Flaherty’s value would depend a bit on whether a team thought he was pre mid-season 2019 Flaherty or the 2nd half 2019 Flaherty. If the former, he’s probably worth a Jose Quintana type return for 4 years of service at cheap rates. That’s a top 50 prospect and a couple of other good prospects. If they think he’s 2nd half 2019 Flaherty, then he’s a top 5 ace under team control for 4 years. That’s probably worth a Chris Sale+ type of return. So two top 50 prospects, and two other legit prospects, at minimum.
what could the Cards expect to get back should they decide to trade him?
Thanks 25 for answering the question with your opinion. That sounds like quite a haul. There are some folks on here that have a very good understanding of the trade market.
I would think his value right now is somewhere in between what stlcard25 said. He will need to pitch more like his second half 2019 to get to the Sale/Kershaw/Cole type status. I doubt many teams right now would take on the risk that he’s is another Cole in terms of value. After all he could be another Wacha.
In my opinion he is going to be real good though. Might take the highest Cardinals’ offer ever for a pitcher for us to keep him once he hits free agency. The Cards will do what they always do and try to keep him with a strong offer before then, but Jack has already shown that he will be tough at contract time. A bit of a latter-day Steve Carlton in that regard.
If the Cardinals truly felt they needed to move Flaherty then the only way it would make sense would be to get a young, controllable, MLB level star in return. There aren’t many of those out there.
I am thinking along the lines of Gleyber Torres, Matt Chapman, Ronald Acuna, Eloy Jimenez, etc…It doesn’t seem likely to me.
Kind of reminds me of the phantom trade that got so many fans excited back in 2013-2014 – Oscar Taveras for Jurickson Profar. But this would be even trickier, as Flaherty is an established MLB star.
Maybe Carlton for Rick Wise would be closer to reality.
I still don’t get why the Cards would want to trade Flaherty in the first place, and others on the thread wondered about that, too. It seems like more and more posters prefer not to entertain questions about their posts, which sort of defeats the purpose of a message board, to discuss…
So, I will take a few shots at perhaps why…
If the underlying reason to consider a trade is Flaherty’s support of the union in compensation matters, think of the number of players across MLB who have also spoken out this year. If teams were to retaliate against outspoken players, a significant percentage of MLB rosters would be changing uniforms – but which teams would take them?
Pretty difficult to guess on a trade package without knowing which teams would be willing to take on union supporters as other teams are ridding themselves of them. Of course, another assumption is that the Cardinals would be among the retaliating teams, for which there seems no shred of supporting suspicion.
I guess another potential reason for trading Flaherty would be a fear of him leaving as a free agent. But since that is four years away under current rules, giving up what look to be very good years ahead at a well below market salary seems a really bad idea, especially for a team not tanking, but expecting to contend each season.
Maybe it would be worth revisiting in three years from now – or sooner if free agent rules and compensation changes are enacted in the next CBA. Also, one can hope that by then, the lingering problems from 2020 will be past and the baseball labor market will settle into normalcy (whatever that will be).
OK, here is a third theory. Because of Flaherty’s success, relatively low salary and relatively long window before free agency, he appeals to other teams. The Cardinals might be motivated to trade him to scoop up high-salaried stars from other teams looking to save money. (This is a generic Arenado scenario.)
The reason this idea does not hold water is that if Mr. DeWitt did not want to add more payroll in normal times, why would he change direction now? No, it is not impossible – just extremely unlikely.
Upon further review… I have a potential reason four – selling high – a fear that Flaherty’s strong 2019 was an aberration. Does anyone actually think this?
Selling VERY high would be the reason for me. I don’t know what Flaherty will do in the future, and he might be a perennial Cy Young Award candidate. It depends on the haul you get in return. I always think of Jimmy Johnson, Herschel Walker, and the Vikings when this kind of discussion comes up. JJ fleeced them with all those draft picks and turned it into two Super Bowls.
Of course that kind of deal doesn’t translate to MLB and it’s hard to find the perfect storm to make it happen anyway (i.e., find a team who thinks your guy is worth the world and then ignite a bidding war with a third team who thinks your guy is the missing piece to a championship).
So in other words, these things rarely happen.
STL 2019 brWAR rankings within MLB
2B 6.0 (1st)
PH 1.5 (6th)
SS 5.1 (7th)
LF 2.0 (10th)
SP 11.4 (12th) w/Flaherty’s 5.7
C 1.7 (12th)
1B 2.4 (12th)
CF 2.7 (13th)
RP 3.7 (15th)
3B 2.8 (17th)
SP 7.7 (20th) w/out Flaherty, replaced by 2.0 war league avg SP
RF 1.3 (24th)RF is set w/Fowler and Jose Martinez season didn’t help the RF numbers either. Without Flaherty, SP’r is next in line to be upgraded, which makes a Flaherty trade very questionable. LF lost Ozuna, but the org seems intent staying in-house with the outfield youth options.
Though not the subject here, I was pleasantly surprised by the no. 6 ranking for Cards pinch-hitters. That might be a slight positive indicator for the designated hitter coming.
The real subject of the above post, of course, is that without Flaherty, the rotation would likely become below-average. A high quantity of starting options does not mean high quality.
So you draft a high school kid in the supplemental first round in 2014 and pay him a $2,000,000 signing bonus ($349,600 over slot). You nurture him, teach him, and groom him all the way up through the system. And just when you’re about to get a great return on your investment you want to trade him? When your business model is to develop your core players from within your own system? Makes a lot of sense.
I do not think anyone wants to trade Flaherty, but rather the original poster was curious as to what he might bring in return at this point in his career.
With no current baseball to talk about, stuff like that is fun to banter about.
Agreed. And I think everyone understood the original question. It was very clear.
However, it is also fair game to ask follow-on questions. Flaherty (vs. Wong or Hudson or anyone else) was singled out for a reason. Seemed worthy of exploring why he was named, as well.
As to no one wanting to trade Flaherty, well, that is not the case, at least in the broader fan population – in the specific context of Arenado. (This is a preview of my column to run in the morning.)
Question of the Day on Karraker & Smallmon:
Would you trade Jack Flaherty for Nolan Arenado?— Michelle Smallmon (@msmallmon) June 17, 2020
Fantasy baseball discussions at least fill time, I reckon. The highly unlikely can be intriguing to some.
Summarizing points already made here.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.