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I haven’t made too many comments here this season but I’m here everyday and have enjoyed reading a good number of the topics. There are many commenters here that are very Cardinal knowledgeable and should be considered for the POBO job. All of the affiliates have finished their seasons and I followed every box score for everyone of their games…. and every GS for the starting pitchers…. so I’m still game.
So what can we expect from 2025 STL season? This is meant to be a very general topic that should attract a wide range of ideas. It will be a long off-season and there will no doubt be some adjustments…. new faces. How many? Good question. The rotation, the pen, catching situation…. the FO etc and so forth, all in one place.
So step up and tell us what you really think ha ha ha. It should be good reading now and during the hot stove days that are sneaking up on us, right up until ST in Feb.
2025 will be a transition year.
I doubt Goldschmidt is resigned after this year. Maybe his late season mini-surge might be good enough but will he take a 1-year contract? Or perhaps a 2-year contract at the most? I don’t believe the Cards feel Luken Baker is his replacement.
After 2025 I believe Lynn and Gibson and Matz will be gone. That means in 2025 Graceffo, Matthews, Hence, and McGreevy are going to get experience for 2026.
Two young guys that need to be ready for 2026 are Victor Scott and Jordan Walker. Plus Nootbaar needs to finally start to produce. Winn should be solid and be even better if he quits trying to hit homeruns and shortens his stroke to put the ball in play.
2025 will be Gorman’s last chance to show the world he won’t strikeout 250 times in a full season.
Yes, alot of questions will be answered in 2025 that will take us into 2026. The only thing that can skew all of this are free agent signings.
r/Esteemed Rat
I think the way the club kicks off plans for 2025 and beyond will be to first ease Mo out of the POBO position. Because he’s built up a lot of goodwill here, and DeWitt won’t have the heart to fire him he will be moved to what the organization will call an advisory role, with Bloom taking over as the head man.
Bloom might take on both the POBO and GM roles, with Girsch shown the door to cut some front office expense to cover the increased salary Bloom will have from the promotion.
Bloom will then fire Marmol and most of the coaching staff, possibly retaining a couple of guys. Then the work really begins – new manager, coaches, player decisions. I expect the 2025 edition to look a lot different.
What I think will happen and what should happen are probably two different things.
What should happen is that Bloom replaces Mo, the minor league system is totally rebuilt with pitching labs, hitting labs, extra coaches and instructors, etc… and all of the drafting and development infrastructure we can afford.
At the big leagiue level we should phase out the veterans and just go with young guys, at least on the position player side. Most of the pitchers are on short term contracts so they will be phased out through attrition.
This means that 2025 would probably be painful since we would be a 70-75 win team but at least we would know that we were taking serious measures to rebuild.
Now what do I think will really happen? Probably a fraction of what I mentioned above. It will probably be more half measures and can kicking so we can scrape together a 83 win team and try to fool the fans into thinking we have a shot at the 6th playoff spot.
Any NL team better bring 90 wins and hope that’s enough wins for the postseason. Nothing watered down about the NL bracket.
1. Revenue enhancement will require ‘win now’ messaging to generate turnstile kliks and viewers.
Mo and the ‘competitive’ schtick, meaning try for a playoff berth and get lucky, will no longer work, so the message will roll out a new goal with higher reach. The Division crown is my guess.2. BDW is not going to eat all the contracts so the vets can be moved for prospects, or just moved. Goldy will be gone, but Arenado, Contreras, Mikolas, Fedde and Gray will remain. Matz might be an exception, I don’t know what happens with him.
3. Winning now starts with getting more out of the players already rostered. That means changing out the ML coaching staff. If the ML staff is replaced, it probably means Bloom is calling the shots, since Mo just gave Ollie an extension and will look like even more of an imbicile if he is now fired. With Bloom calling the shots I do not think a new manager will be a Cardinals legacy guy or fan favorite. Somebody with no connection to the organization.
4. Winning now requires better depth reinforcements and better prepared players coming up to the ML squad. There has to be a move away from hitters who can’t cope with ML pitching and players with limited usefulness because of sever defensive limitations and/or severe platoon splits. We know there will be changes in player development, but whether there will be any evidence of it any time next year is unknown. I think there will be a strong effort at the top of the system, the AAA level, to produce results next year as far a sending up more useful players.
5. With limited funds, I think payroll will be deployed away from contract pitchers and toward the position players side. So I think both Lynn and Gibson will be gone. It will be back to the laundry list approach. It is dubious, because other than Pallante and McGreevy there isn’t anything. Yes, sore arm guys could stay healthy and that would be great. There will be Gray, Fedde and Mikolas. Maybe Matz. Pallante and McGreevy.
6. Even with guys hopefully doing better, something has to be done about the offense. We can’t fix the offense by using guys who can’t play defense, or can’t hit righties or lefties, and we have to minimize guys playing out of position and using UTs as regulars. The roster has to be reconstructed in such a way that there can be far less lineup churn, and less guys moving around the field defensively.
7. Continuing on from 6 above, we will need a first baseman who is strong defensively. Not a platoon or some 1B/DH combo guys who have Winn throwing to a different guy every day and causing a ripple through the lineup when one or the other plays. Remember, this is brick and mortar baseball, not fantasy. Intangibles matter. Consistency matters. We need a regular second baseman. We need an everyday OF, which obviously can’t be constructed out of players we have. If it could, it would, but it hasn’t so it can’t. We need to face that reality. We need to figure out catcher, and as soon as we do, Contreras will find a way to get hurt, probably. It is not too much to expect Player Development to recognize that a catcher has to be able to control the running game, and if he can’t it doesn’t matter how sweet his launch angle is. So how much of all that can be sorted out of what we have, and what do we need to acquire. Those are the questions.
What you are saying Bling is shuffle the deck. I’m all for that. You are saying win the division. I’ve always been all for that. New manager and coaches. Check. You want all new outfielders and first baseman. You want everday guys that are better than average both offensively and on defense. I’m all for that. I just need to know how you do that without adding payroll. And you need to dump Arenado.
If the current leadership (front office and manager) remains the same, I would expect much the same as the last two years. A thorough shakeup is needed.
I don’t know how many new players are needed. First they need to decide what to do with the ones they have. Who is the right fielder? If its Walker, then its Walker. It’s not Burleson. It’s not Noot. It’s not Donovan. But Walker is not a good fielder. Maybe he works at 1B, but we don’t know because we insist on pretending he’s a right fielder. So who? Burleson is a poor fielder and a platoon bat, so not him. Noot then. He is good enough or he is not. Decide. Left field then. Is it Donovan or isn’t it? Decide. If its him, then you need a second baseman? If not, then you need a right fielder. They need to make decisions so they can have a plan. If Burleson or Baker is the 1B, then you can trade Walker. If Donovan or Saggese is a second baseman you can trade Gorman. Decide so you know what you need and do something.
I dont think this team is really that close to winning the division or even having that mindset. Our pitching and hitting is average at the best of times, worse a lot of the times. To me as long as the people calling the shots now are still doing it, why would i expect a different result. Even if there is a shakeup, i dont think it will be fixed for next year. Maybe getting some decent draft picks for a couple more seasons wouldnt be the worst thing. Unless another pujols and molina fall into our lap, it could be a good minute before the birds are flying high again. But the smell of spring always brings optimism if only for a while.
I tend to agree with Willie that the team is not close to winning the division. I also doubt they will do enough to get there. But among all the ownership/FO problems is they are delusional. So I think that will be the plan, and I tried to lay out my guesses on how they will/should go about it. Hopefully, they will make some decisions about which players to move forward with and move the rest for other things they need. That is why I expect more turnover than we have seen. Maybe if Bloom has enough authority they might surprise us. If Mo is calling the shots I will not be hopeful.
Mozeliak is not getting fired. His contract expires after the 2025 season and that’s when he has said he will retire. What happens after that is anybody’s guess, but my guess is that they promote from within and Girsch is offered POBO. If there are changes for 2025, I think it will have something to do with scouting. Maybe Bloom gets more involved with scouting. Also, the Cardinals are supposedly weak on analytics, so they might put a significant amount of time and resources into improving that.
As far as position players and pitching, there are a lot of good looking possibilities, IMO.
I don’t think the Cardinals’ organization is that bad off.
Exactly like 2024…pathetic with no attempt by the front office to make improvements over the winter. Like usual.
The problem with the win now approach is that you can only do that one of two ways:
1. Keep the same players and hope they are miracously better than they have been the last two years.
2. Go buy some new players while also slashing the payroll.Both seem like fantasies to me. The reality says to do a rebuild. And from the ground up. The rebuild has to start in the minors and player development system. A winning organization has to have a solid foundation.
I haven’t really commited yet emotionally where I think this thing needs to go. But I’m leaning heavily toward GScotts views in his last post.
I expect the Cardinals to cut payroll by $15-25 million.
Even though the Cardinals need two outfield bats of the Teoscar Hernandez/Anthony Santander variety, I don’t expect the Cardinals to sign either one.
The Cardinals will probably trade Liberatore & Gorman, and Gorman will go on to post a 900+ OPS with his new team.
The Cardinals hitting coach will be the sacrificial lamb, but the new guy won’t be any better.
Ratsbuddy
I doubt Goldschmidt is resigned after this year. Maybe his late season mini-surge might be good enough but will he take a 1-year contract? Or perhaps a 2-year contract at the most? I don’t believe the Cards feel Luken Baker is his replacement.One thing that bothers me about a legacy signing like Wainwright, Molina, or Goldschmidt, is that it would be fine in a bubble, but the front office then claims that payroll can’t go up. Well, stop overpaying on players that aren’t giving us better than average production (at best).
LACardFan
I expect the Cardinals to cut payroll by $15-25 million.
Even though the Cardinals need two outfield bats of the Teoscar Hernandez/Anthony Santander variety, I don’t expect the Cardinals to sign either one.
Our issue isn’t signing players, it’s signing the right players. Look at KC – They spent $16M on Wacha and $15M on Lugo – Both vastly better than any of our 5 expensive starters.
Imanaga, Flaherty, Severino, Manaea, Nick Martinez, even Fedde were all solid free agent additions (with hindsight of course). Trades for Cease and Sale paid off big-time.
Likewise, the Royals can’t-miss star (#2 on BA in 2022) is a legit star ~ Witt, while Walker (#4 on BA in 2023) is a massive letdown.
2025 has to be about making the right decisions.
I really think 2025 will be a ‘reset’ year and the Cards should be transparent with us fans and call it what it is.
Gray makes $25M in 2025; is he scheduled to make that or more in 2026?
They completely blew the opportunity to get prospects for Goldschmidt in 2023. Now they will get nothing after paying him ‘star’ money for 2024.
Mikolas, lololololololol
It almost feels like whatever decision they make it will turn out to be the wrong one. Snake bit.
Based on Mo’s comments about hoping that the fans will be understanding about what they are doing, that lends me to believe that a rebuild of some sort is in order. I wouldn’t expect the team to entirely tank, but I would think they’ll hit the reset button about mid-season next year unless they are in contention (which as the Giants a few years ago showed, can come out of nowhere). My expected off-season will be something like this:
Mozeliak says he’s taking a step back and Bloom is promoted as the new PBO.
Goldschmidt is resigned, something like 1 yr $15M. They want that red jacket and the HOF cap. The team has almost never veered from this path with the late career stars.
Some of the roster chaff is removed via trade or turning down options (Lynn, maybe Gibson, Matz goes in trade, probably one of Gorman, Donovan, Burleson).
A veteran addition or two (maybe Kittredge and…?) shows that they are “anticipating being competitive within the division.” Overall, payroll is slightly down but not so down that they appear to be giving up.
If all goes well at the deadline, it looks sort of like this year…a cheap veteran arm for the pen or the rotation that is cost effective. If the season gets away from them, I would expect that they’ll trade Helsley, Gibson if he’s still around, Mikolas if he is any better than this year, perhaps even Arenado (who tends to start complaining when he’s on a bad team) or Contreras.
Note that this is not what I’d like to do, but I think it’s likeliest based on the comments from the FO regarding a potential rebuild and the fact that Dewitt will want to make it at least appear that he’s trying to put a decent team on the field for the fan $$.
ZTR asked:
Gray makes $25M in 2025; is he scheduled to make that or more in 2026?
per Fangraphs:
Sonny Gray – 3 yr, $75M (2024-26),
2024 – $10,000,000
2025 – $25,000,000
2026 – $35,000,000
2027 – $30,000,000 – mutual option yearYeah Gray’s contract gets considerably worse as he gets older. A real genius move by the FO.
Assuming all three are still here in 2026 Gray, Arenado, and Contreras will account for $75M of our payroll with 23 other roster spots to fill. That is economic misfeasance.
Bloom will be inheriting a mess to cleanup.
Our issue isn’t signing players, it’s signing the right players. Look at KC – They spent $16M on Wacha and $15M on Lugo – Both vastly better than any of our 5 expensive starters.
Imanaga, Flaherty, Severino, Manaea, Nick Martinez, even Fedde were all solid free agent additions (with hindsight of course). Trades for Cease and Sale paid off big-time.
I agree it is about signing the right players.
Yes, Imanega, Manea, Wacha, Lugo, Martinez & Lorenzen were all discussed on this board last year as better alternatives than the old-timers the Cardinals signed in clearly panic-stricken moves.
But this was the worst season for the Cardinals in terms of attendance in a non-pandemic year, and I expect the Cardinals to reward the fans by reducing their payroll. They started bellyaching about being poor last year, those cries will only get louder in 2025.
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