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What’s the latest with him? Will he be at AAA this year? Any chance he makes it to St. Louis this year? Can he hit higher level pitching?
What can we expect from Mr. Scott in 2024?
r/Esteemed Rat
He is in spring camp and should get to play a lot.
Very likely yes.
Yes there is a chance, but it may depend on others more than him.
Double-A, yes. Triple-A, TBD.We wrote extensively about him here…
I really like Scott, especially the intangibles he could bring to our club. The big league club is a little bland – not real good speed, not a lot of enthusiasm, a boring manager.
Contreras is fun, and Nootbaar can be a cheerleader, but other than that not much to rave about. Scott can really add some spark. I hope he makes it and has a great career here – be sort of a combo Curt Flood/Lou Brock.
I noticed that all the projections shown on Scott’s fangraphs page have his 2024 projected OBP around .300. They seem to get there by projecting his unusually high BABiP will drop to around .300 and his unusually low BB% will stay low.
In the minors you carry a .300 OBP guy in the leadoff slot all year if that’s what you are told to do, and that’s what I figure happens at Memphis. Obviously, that is not going to work in MLB, so lets hope for the best. Steamer, ZIPS etc. have been wrong before. They are right more than they are wrong, though.
I admit that I have not watched any video of Scott but everytime I read about him I have visions of Vince Coleman in my head. Maybe my mind is stuck in the 80’s but I would be thrilled if he turned out to be another Coleman. Of course it helped Vince that he played on artificial turf.
It would be interesting to see how the throw over limit would affect the running game with an elite runner like that.
Besides the raw athleticism, another thing that impresses me about it Scott is his intelligence. He understands what is expected of him and the trade offs involved between being more aggressive at the plate, at the potential expense of drawing more walks for example.
He is a student of the game. He comes across as a rare find – the kind of insights that Albert Pujols has.
There is a lot of excitement for a player with a half-season at Double-A and no Triple-A experience yet. I hope the Cardinals aren’t forced/tempted to rush Scott.
One of the hardest things to judge, as a fan, is whether or not a prospect is really ready to take the next step. We only have eyewitness reports and data to go on. The team has up close coaching and evaluators to make the decisions. Some prospects are ready quicker than others. Only time will tell where Scott stands in the development process.
My view is also shaped by others who I respect. In Scott’s #4 prospect ranking article I linked to above, I shared quotes from two scouts I asked about Scott. They are divided as to his future. One thinks he will struggle against good pitching and sees him as a #4 outfielder, but not in 2024. The other thinks Scott will be an MLB starter due to his speed and defense though I did not press him as to when.
With a split squad, maybe he will get into a game today.
The projections I mentioned all seem to agree with the scout who thinks Scott will have some trouble with advanced pitching. I would add, not just better stuff, better control, better at holding runners, time to the plate, better defenses, better catchers, better pitching and defensive strategery. He will have to get better too, and he might. He has a lot going for him, but the hit tool is a weak point. As I have often said, a lot of guys look good in the Texas League. But I agree its fun to have a guy to get lathered up over, just keep him away from the tarp roller. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxdvzg-MeMM
Scott is interesting because he doesn’t walk much. I have heard that his bunting evens things out, but the real issue is he needs development in a number of areas.
My eye test is that his bat could become Milt Thompson-esque with Alex Cole’s speed. If you add Rod Carew’s bunting (intended hyperbole), and Curt Flood’s glove, we are golden.
Mike Antico is waaay undervalued in this conversation. He is the version of Victor Scott who is actually ready.Nigel T said:
Mike Antico is waaay undervalued in this conversation. He is the version of Victor Scott who is actually ready.
Well, the Cards don’t see it that way. Scott is in big league camp while Antico is in STEP Camp. Can’t make the team from the back fields…
Prior to today, which is the latest I have, Scott’s BABiP was .136. Egad, how is that possible. He is swinging a nerf noodle up there. I am not watching games, but they must be knocking the bat out of his hands to have a BABiP like that. I know he had an unusually high BABiP last year in MiLB. I do not know what to make of it exactly. I am sure it relates to going from a half season in AA to MLB.
What do people who have been watching think?
For a speedy guy he has been hitting the ball in the air a lot. He has hit some balls hard, but he has been hitting “at ’em” balls. I wish he would try bunting at least once a game.
I like his mechanics, and he will be a good player in this league. But he probably needs to spend a year in AAA.
He’s overmatched right now. He’s exciting in CF and on the base paths,
but his bat needs more development. He’s hitting weakly.Statcast thinks he’s been a bit unlucky: .152 xBA vs .083 BA. But his Barrel% is 0.0% (no, that is not a typo, he has yet to barrel a ball) and his HardHit% is a pretty weak 31.8%. In short, he’s probably been a little bit unlucky, but even if you adjust for batted ball luck, it still amounts to a lot of very weak contact. Also, he has a 36% GB rate (MLB avg is 45%), so he’s hurting his BABIP by hitting more FBs than ideal for a player with his speed/strength profile.
A 31% K-rate + a lot of weak contact = bad results.
Cardinals starts in CF in post-Edmonds era Jay 482, Bader 381, Rasmus 315, Carlson 181, Pham 180, Fowler 166, Grichuk 151, Ankiel 147, Bourjos 106, Schumaker 88, Nootbaar 82, Robinson 50, Edman 43, O'Neill 38, Mather 20, Hazelbaker 17, Thomas 10, Piscotty 11, Heyward 10, Scott 10
— Tom Orf (@MU4124) April 8, 2024
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