March 11, 2019 at 10:30 pm #83742Bob ReedParticipantFree
“Do you know if the model (the Davenport Translations) has any built in biases, such as weighing performances against higher levels of competition as more important, or if it gives more importance to guys who both perform well and are young for their league, like Carlson and Gorman?”
Good questions, dac. Through his website I have reached out to Davenport a few times over the past decade, but to no avail. So I’m afraid I’m not versed enough in his methodology to comment.
However, speaking strictly of Lane Thomas, it certainly seems that more weight was given to his 2018 season than to his distant past. Rightly so, of course. Players change.
Since that answer was so useless, I should at least offer you a scrap of new information, dac. So here are some more NAPS numbers for Cardinal farmhands. Again, keep in mind that these are Peaks, not career averages. And they are based on a normalized on-base percentage of .320. Therefore, a NAPS of .500 is good enough to start for almost any team, at any position, in any season. And a .400 NAPS makes you roughly a league-average batter (in your very best seasons).
Ramon Urias .481
Ivan Herrera .462
Carlos Soto .458
Justin Williams .455
Andrew Knizner .452
Randy Arozarena .447
Evan Mendoza .415 (Yairo Munoz was also .415 before his 2018 breakthrough in the majors)
Victor Garcia .409
Tommy Edman .387
Edmundo Sosa .354
For further context, Paul DeJong was .473 and Harry Bader was .477.March 12, 2019 at 2:20 pm #83792Bob ReedParticipantFree
Unfortunately I overlooked the guy who was already the most overlooked in the organization, Dominican Summer League keystone/hot corner combo infielder Ramon Mendoza.
Mendoza’s NAPS number of .455 compares quite favorably with many of the better Redbird prospects, and his road OPS was 158 points above his home tally so he might actually be even more promising than he seems at a glance. (If you get a chance, check his batted ball heat map at MLB Farm. Highly unusual, in a good way I think.)
As a righty bat he absolutely mauled righty arms (.370/.470/.590), which I also like a lot. First half, batted .347 but with an isolated slugging of just .102. Second half, hit just .292 but slugged a robust .520.
Listed at a modest 5’11” and 174, Mendoza was a conservative 75th in the community rankings. But I have him solidly inside the team top 40, perhaps as high as the 28-32 range. Wish I knew more about the glovework, but you can’t have everything.
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