The ZiPS forecasting model ranks StL prospects 6th, sort of

[Bob Reed]

I apologize if I’m just repeating something that’s already been mentioned in another thread here, but I think that even if it was referenced earlier, this topic probably deserves a room of its own.

Formerly of ESPN, Dan Szymborski has on occasion turned his ZiPS projection machine toward minor leaguers in an attempt to objectively identify baseball’s strongest prospects, and at Fangraphs last week he produced his ZiPS top 100 list. Link: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-top-100-prospects/

Dylan Carlson was ranked 7th, Nolan Gorman 21st, and Matthew Liberatore 95th. (Ivan Herrera was not on the list, but that kinda looks like a clerical error, based on the relative rankings of some other prospects like George Valera and especially Tristan Casas. But I’ll elaborate on that in a day or two.)

At any rate, this of course means that ZiPS sees Carlson as a superstar with therefore a roughly 60 WAR future, Gorman as a star (~30 career WAR) and Liberatore as an MLB contributor, albeit a relatively modest one.

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Now the math. I won’t bore you with the dreary details, but based on historical norms I’ve assigned specific career WAR values to each individual top 100 prospect slot, e.g., 55 WAR for the 10th-best prospect, 12 WAR at #50, 34 WAR for the #18 prospect, 8 WAR for #70, and so on. Taking these WAR values and applying them to the ZiPS prospect rankings, we conclude these farm systems as the 10 best in the game. (Remember though, these rankings obviously ignore every prospect outside the top 100.)

1) Dodgers 217 career WAR from top 100 prospects
2) Devil Rays 193 WAR
3) Pale Hose 135
4) Indians 113
5) Friars 107
6) Cardinals 97
7) Braves 90
8) Athletics 89
9) Angels 88
10) cubs 81

As far as ZiPS is concerned, it’s truly a two-horse race. And although they are 6th, it’s pretty easy to argue that really the Cards comfortably fit anywhere from 5th to 9th. The strong placement of Chicago’s northsiders surprised me a bit. Why ZiPS loves obscure overaged starting pitcher Cory Abbott (#58) is a mystery to me; Abbott is more than two years Angel Rondon’s senior, and posted a very similar AA season in 2019 — but there you have it. We Redbird fans can take heart however in these numbers: Brewers just 8 future WAR, and Reds also 8. So, Cards 97, and Brewers + cubs + Cincy, also 97. I like the fearful symmetry.

(By the way, speaking of Rondon, I don’t much like what I’ve seen so far this spring. I’m concerned they overdid it with those 160 innings last year, given he’d never thrown 100 frames before. Maybe I’m just a worrywart, but fingers crossed for the young man.)

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