The Stolen Base

[bccran]

What’s happened to the stolen base as a weapon in the NL? Here are the Top 10 listed in today’s Post Dispatch –

Hamilton – 51
Gordon – 43
Villar – 23
Broxton – 19
Inclarte – 17
Pollock – 17
Goldschmidt – 16
Peraza – 16
Pham – 16

Only 3 in the whole league with 20 or more? Has the focus shifted that much to the home run? What’s happened to the speed game?

[Brian Walton]

Analytics. Much more individual data on pitchers and baserunners alike. Probabilities are better understood.

Here is an article from last season with great detail on the subject.

https://www.sportsonearth.com/article/169289786/stolen-bases-are-few-in-mlb

[Euro Dandy]

You know it’s got to be the analytics. I haven’t read the article closely yet, just skimmed it quickly, but I saw where it said outs are more precious than bases.

Still though, I would think based on analytics you should see more situational steal attempts late in close games…where you’re playing for one run…or early in the game of an anticipated pitcher duel. If you have a man on first and no power bats coming to the plate soon, you know it’s probably going to take either two more hits to score, or a walk and and a hit. The alternative would be to get a stolen base first, then one hit would often produce that crucial one run. Given that the average successful stolen base rate of around 70% would be higher than getting a hit or walk, then maybe it should be considered more often in those situations.

[bccran]

To your point, Euro – is it my imagination, or do the Cardinals try to steal more bases in the late innings of a close ball game?

[Euro Dandy]

^ Maybe so, especially if the right guy is on base. But I can’t say I’ve really noticed it. There are a lot of variables for managers to consider I suppose. You would think most pre-plan for those situations by considering a lot of different potential scenarios…so they don’t have to do a lot of in-game, on-the-fly analysis to give the green light.

[Author]

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