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It seems as though the general mood around the franchise lately is as poor as I can ever recall it. The Dewitts don’t care, the money is running short, the manager is ruining everything, the system is broken, etc. I’ll admit that I’ve gotten caught up in it myself, with probably less excitement about the immediate future of the Cardinals than at any point in the past 20 years, I’d say.
Before I begin spinning what I believe is a more hopeful tale, I’ll first acknowledge that the current iteration of the Cardinals core is at the end of the line. Guys like Goldy, Arenado, Mikolas and Contreras are at or coming to the end of their primes and our old guard of Waino, Yadi and company are already gone. Getting more than we have out of those guys is not to be expected or even realistically possible. The team is in tighter financial straits as a whole and attendance and ratings are down. The front office feels a bit stale and in need of a refresh, and the field staff clearly is not assisting talented players in getting the most out of their talent as they are fighting for their (job) lives every day. There is good reason to be pessimistic in the short run.
That said, I also think there is a lot of hope for the near to mid term future. The Cardinals are a smart, resourceful franchise with a loyal fan base that’s willing to bring the support back with a little elbow grease from the owners and front office. Why do I have a little hope that the downturn won’t be too long?
First, I think that the regime may be finally realizing that they need to move on. I do think that we will see Bloom take over more in 2025, and I also think we are seeing the end of the Marmol/Blake/Ward era. Making a solid hire at the key coaching position(s) will help some of the talent we are worried will wither on the vine to get closer to what we all hope and expect from them.
Second, the team is not devoid of talent. There’s some old stars, for sure, that I expect we will move on from in the year or two ahead. Peering beyond the age of the primary starting pitching and corners of the infield, you can see that the team is set up pretty well with youthful talent around the diamond:
Herrera is 24
Donovan is 27
Winn is 22
Nootbaar is 26
Burleson is 25These guys have all had some modicum of success this year and are both young and under contract for a while. Besides Winn, none project as a star, but they all look like solid to very good regular players who can tide us over for the next wave of prospects.
Three guys not listed are Nolan Gorman (24), Victor Scott (23) and Jordan Walker (22)…everyone seems to think these guys are lost causes already. I certainly don’t…their early performances can and should be considered as a baseline to where they could be heading. Gorman may be traded, who knows…but he will have good years coming up, no doubt. Whether those are in St Louis or not remains to be see. Scott had a miserable start to the year as he was clearly pushed too quickly following his breakout last year. He’s possibly a Gold Glover and if the bat comes around slightly (which it very well could this coming year) and you have a starting quality CF for the next 5+ years. Walker, on the other hand, somehow has clawed his way back from his horrendous early performance this year and is very quietly having a good month, with a 135 OPS+ in September. I think he’ll get back on track and provide some offense next year and going forward.
Sonny Gray is still around, Andre Pallante looks like a find for the back end of the rotation at a minimum, and the bullpen is sterling. I expect that to be a hallmark of the 2025 team as well, which should hopefully be able to hold their own.
Third, the minor league system is strong and looks to be capable of filling the pipeline of young players the team will need to weather the next couple of years solidly. On the position side, Memphis has a number of players who look to be at least complimentary pieces and perhaps a bit more. Saggese and Koperniak in particular are guys to look out for if we are not aggressive in free agency this year…OF and middle infield could need a boost from the farm if we trade from depth for starters or lineup players. The middle and lower minors are littered with high ceiling talent that has come into their own-Chase Davis (22) and Jimmy Crooks (22) are looking like they could be in St Louis late next year or by 2026 and they have great potential. JJ Wetherholt (21) looks exactly like we expected him in Palm Beach with more walks than Ks and a hot bat to finish the year, giving us fans dreams of a Winn-Wetherholt double play combo up the middle. Leonardo Bernal (20) continues to march slowly up the system and is a nice backstop for Crooks another year down the road. And there’s Won Bin Cho back in Peoria, a project to be sure but with potential for a big payoff in 2-3 years.
On the pitching side, MLB pipeline recently rated the Cardinals farm system third in the minors for pitching prospects (LINK HERE) and while the gurus aren’t always right, it’s been a while since the prospect raters have dealt this sort of hand for the Cards. There are two legitimate top of the rotation talents in the upper minors in Quinn Mathews (23) and Tink Hence (21). Now, some may quibble with Hence as he’s been a bit fragile, but when he’s pitched he’s been lights out, period. Even if he ends up in the pen, I think he’s a late inning pitcher who will absolutely be an asset. Personally I think he’s a Carlos Martinez type in all likelihood…not super durable but has a couple of All Star type seasons and some lost seasons as well. If you don’t think there’s some value there, Cmart had a 4 year stretch where he put up 14.5 WAR. That’s near All Star level per year and is a solid #2 type. If we get that from Hence, we should be plenty satisfied. Further down the rotation, Michael McGreevy (24) has made himself into a pretty legitimate looking starter for the #4/5 spot as soon as next year. Gordon Graceffo, Sem Robberse and Ian Bedell are potential depth. In AA, Cooper Hjerpe and Tekoah Roby are working their way back from injuries, but have mid rotation potential as well. And further down, I’m particularly high on Chen Wei Lin, (known as “Chen Wei-no” in my book) and Brycen Mautz probably will help at least in the pen down the line.
Finally, there’s the favorite punching bags, sad as it is to say. Goldy and Arenado have been up and down, and we will probably not see Goldy again after this year. But Arenado seemed to be fighting some sort of injury this year, and given the typically progression of righty power bats in Busch, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a mild bounce back (.800ish OPS, 25-30 HRs) from the elder Nolan next year.
So if it seems that this is too sunny of an outlook…so be it. I am in no way suggesting that the Cards are on track to return to dominance of the NL or even the Central soon. That would be really pie in the sky. But what I do see is a return to at least 85-90 wins, perhaps by 2027, with the potential for quite a bit more with a solid support system for our developing youngsters and a little luck (which every franchise needs…do you think it was all an eye for talent when they grabbed Pujols when everyone else, including themselves, passed over him 400+ times? Or choosing Waino out of a hat, having Carpenter finally beat the injury bug, or in more recent years to grab two MVP candidates in a trade two years apart for what amount to spare parts?). Anyway, hopefully some food for thought as I’ve borrowed heavily from others thoughts in sharing my own (jnevel, gscottar, and jj, for three…even tempering my expectations with bling’s pessimism). Have a wonderful Friday and go Cards!!
25 – You pulled a me with the long diatribe! All true though. There are a lot of good prospects percolating. They need to fully develop first though. No more jumping the line like with Walker, Scott, and Hicks.
25 – You pulled a me with the long diatribe! All true though. There are a lot of good prospects percolating. They need to fully develop first though. No more jumping the line like with Walker, Scott, and Hicks.
Occasionally I get the desire to write…haha.
You are correct. I think there’s a good nucleus brewing of pitching and hitting, but hopefully the front office has a little patience. Let the kids get ready, add some trades or free agents, and you could see October baseball again in Busch before too long, and another good runnl starting.
There are certainly some reasons to think this franchise could be back in the postseason regularly in the near future but I still think the smart play is to pull the plug on some of the current veterans and do a real re-tooling instead of the half measures we have done recently. Bloom definitely needs to sit in the big chair.
I know the Cardinals won’t do it but I would try to move both Arenado and Contreras in addition to letting Goldy walk. Factoring in that Mikolas, Matz, and Fedde only have one year of control left this could look like a new team by 2026. Even without Goldy, Arenado, and Contreras we could probably win 70-75 games next year. That isn’t terribly different from this season and we would finally be on the path to doing what we need to do instead of the annual 80-85 win rut we are stuck in. Enough with the bandaids.
How far the sky has fallen depends entirely on your goal. Personally, I wish the bar was set higher than getting into the playoffs as a Wild Card. But even that has become distant. They’ve missed the watered-down playoffs entirely in five of the last nine years, including the most recent two.
Forget about winning the World Series or even the National League. This franchise has just two division titles in the last nine years despite competing in one of the weakest divisions in baseball. It is going to take time to fix, but at this point, we don’t know who will be in charge, let alone how he plans to try to do it with what appears to be dwindling resources.
It is good to have hope, though I am holding out to see the plan… and if it is more of the same, I expect the results will be more of the same.
Has anyone ever seen stlcard25 and Jnevel in the same room? Asking for a friend.
I too hope guys get better and prospects pan out.
Pallante and McGreevy don’t cost $10 Million so I bet they will be in the rotation come opening day. It is worth noting that neither is a big swing and miss guy. As to the gaggle of sore arms, lets see if they can stay on the field, then think about what we have.
What we need are impact players, and we are not going to be going deep in post season if we don’t have them. There is no point even talking about role players, 6-9 hitters. We need 1 through 5, in other words the top of the order and the heart of the order.
I don’t want to offend the Winn groupies, so I will say he might develop into a top of the order hitter. As of now his OBP is too low and he doesn’t make anything happen on the bases. Burleson is a platoon bat, not an everyday top of the order guy. We have nothing at all for 3,4,5.
So we need to consider: What we are going to have in those 5 lineup slots come opening day?
I don’t know anything about McGreevy but, in my view, Pallante’s proven to be a better option in the rotation than has Liberatore. Arenado will in all probability be back next season and will fill the clean-up slot, and I’ve always thought Contreras was well suited at 5. As for the most important slot in the order, along with lead-off, anyone’s guess is as good as mine. Maybe we’ll trade for Freddie Freeman and Rickey will attempt a comeback, but I’d have to say that the odds are pretty long on that unlikely scenario.
Good to have some positive take on things, as you just never know how things will play out. It would not be out of the question to see Walker and say Siani come back in 2025 and greatly improve their offensive production. Or any number of other guys.
But realistically looking ahead, I agree with gscottar. I would like to see Bloom in charge of baseball operations, and then see if he can swing deals for Arenado and Contreras. If he could get someone to take Mikolas without having to pay his salary all the better. Basically get younger and quit the short-term philosophy that we have had the last decade.
Make your mission statement, “To build a championship caliber ball club within five years.” Put that everywhere in the organization’s offices, player clubhouse, stadium corridors etc. Get everyone on board, from the janitors and day porters to the executive management team. Then anytime a decision comes up, ask yourself, “Is this a step towards building a championship caliber ball club within five years?”
, “Is this a step towards building a championship caliber ball club within five years?”
If it is, your first move is to trade Helsley for elite prospect/prospects. Ready in 3-5 years. You don’t need an expensive closer during a rebuild. Helsleys value will never be higher. It’s a no brainer, so don’t be mad at Bloom (if he’s brought in this year) when that’s the first thing he does. Let Goldy walk. Trade Arenado and Contreras for whatever prospects you can get. This is what a rebuild looks like. I have my doubts they go that way, but we don’t have much longer to find out.
I don’t think BDW is willing to see his stadium empty for the next couple years and I don’t think he will eat a bunch of contracts. It’s not going to be that kind of tear down and rebuild.
It will be more like what will it take to make a run at the Division next year. Maybe that will be Bloom’s marching orders. A good place to start is getting more out of the players we have. That would mean changing out the coaching staff. We already know Player Development will get shaken up. we will have to see what else. Beyond that, we need a couple hitters. A dynamic type for the upper part of the lineup and an RBI guy for the middle of the lineup. Not an all or nothing who can’t do anything besides hit a homer a week. My guess is there will be more turnover that we are used to.
I tend to agree. Willie Jr. will be 84 by this time next season. I’m not too sure he’s willing to listen to anyone tell him about their 5 year plan.
“First, I think that the regime may be finally realizing that they need to move on.”
25: Based on what, may I ask respectfully?
Bling there’s different ways to go. But there’s nothing to indicate Bill is willing to spend the money on upgrading the lineup. Really, there’s nothing to indicate he’s willing to spend the money to upgrade the system and coaching staff. We will find out shortly. One thing is clear. His grace period is over. Fans won’t buy into another patch job. Fair or not, fans don’t want Mo as the face of this franchise anymore.
KCB I agree its always a good bet to say BDW won’t spend money. Such has been signalled with the revenue uncertainty and soft attendance messaging. But on the other hand, I agree with TD that an owner getting on to his mid 80s is not likely to be thinking five year plan.
I think an objective will be to increase attendance and revenue next season, and the nachos munching selfie stick crowd is not going to get amped up over a five year plan. I also agree that Mo and his ‘competitive’ schtick have worn out their welcome, so there needs to be new messaging, a new goal. It seems like it has to be a win in 2025 message and it will have to reach beyond the goal of sneaking into post season and hoping to get lucky. This is why I am gravitating toward making a run at the Division title, and what will it take to do that.
First of all, please take “The Lou” uniforms and burn them. What the hell is The Lou? A bathroom in the UK?
Second, Marmol has to go. That experiment has failed miserably.
Third, we need coaching changes as well.
The once vaunted and respected St. Louis Cardinals are quickly turning into the Cubs.
Fourth, I think the fan base, the best in baseball, deserves better than they are receiving. I’m asking the DeWitt family to sell the franchise if this is the best you can do.85-90 wins by 2027? I mean, sure I’d think you could take all but a couple of franchises (White Sox) and give a solid FO / staff three years to get there.
But based on the results since 2016 – who will be happy with that?
“First, I think that the regime may be finally realizing that they need to move on.”
25: Based on what, may I ask respectfully?
The first public step was bringing in Bloom. Mo also has indicated that he would be leaving after 2025. More recently, there are quotes like this from Derek Goold:
Mozeliak has — let me type this again — said he wants to create a clear plan where other voices grow in influence and volume over the coming offseason and season.”
Does it guarantee that they realize that the fan base is ready for change? Maybe not…but it looks like smoke at a minimum, to me.
85-90 wins by 2027? I mean, sure I’d think you could take all but a couple of franchises (White Sox) and give a solid FO / staff three years to get there.
But based on the results since 2016 – who will be happy with that?
It depends on how the franchise is trending. If there is an exciting young core and fans can see that with some FA additions and a trade or two, mid 90s wins is possible, then in think people will be happy. If it’s 87 wins with a rotation of 30 somethings and a veteran lineup, it probably wouldn’t sit as well.
Sustaining a winning ball club without a big payroll is easier said than done. Look at the Mariners as an example. They have a rotation we’re all envious of, a young star in Julio Rodriguez, but after two 90 win years they missed the playoffs last year and will finish around .500 this year. In fact they haven’t won a playoff game since shortly after I graduated high school in 2001.
I don’t think BDW is willing to see his stadium empty for the next couple years and I don’t think he will eat a bunch of contracts. It’s not going to be that kind of tear down and rebuild.
It will be more like what will it take to make a run at the Division next year. Maybe that will be Bloom’s marching orders. A good place to start is getting more out of the players we have. That would mean changing out the coaching staff. We already know Player Development will get shaken up. we will have to see what else. Beyond that, we need a couple hitters. A dynamic type for the upper part of the lineup and an RBI guy for the middle of the lineup. Not an all or nothing who can’t do anything besides hit a homer a week. My guess is there will be more turnover that we are used to.
This may be exactly what they do but it would be incredibly wrong because it would just be kicking the can down the road once again. This team needs a rebuild even it is just through attrition. And in case BDW hasn’t noticed the stadium is already empty. If I were him I would jettison the big money guys and not sign anymore big money guys until this orgainzation is ready to win. That won’t happen until the front office is cleared out and the minor league system is totally rebuilt.
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