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Counting games thru Saturday, March 11, 2023 – including Thursdays game against Nicaragua (0-3 w/2 K’s) – Paul DeJong has struck out three times this spring. To date, DeJong has 2 hits in 16 at bats for a batting average of .125
John “Mo” Mozeliak signed DeJong to a preemptive $26 million, six year contract extension – with two additional years of team options – following just four months in MLB.
Since DeJong was not called up until May 28, 2017, he only played four months and did not qualify for a full year of MLB service time, which requires 172 days on the roster. This means the Cardinals had control of DeJong for six more years – 3 pre-arbitration years, when they could pay him anything, as long as it met the MLB minimum, followed by 3 arbitration years. Since DeJong would not have been a free agent until 2024, there was adequate time for further evaluation of his performance before initiating contract talks.
Mo projected what DeJong “might” do in the next six-plus years, based on only 108 MLB games. Mo hoped DeJong could stabilize the Card’s shortstop issues. While some teams lock up promising young players, it’s a foolish gamble to give a player a long contract after just 4 months in MLB, when the team already has control of him for 6 years. Mo rushed the process, just as he did with the Matt Carpenter extension.
In 2019, DeJong’s best MLB season, he had 30 home runs, but only hit .233, while striking out 149 times. DeJong only hit 3 home runs in the short 2020 season, when MLB played 60 games.
Paul DeJong hit .197 in 2021 and .157 in 2022, a 20 percent decline, in spite of Mo often batting DeJong high in the order to give him better protection – to the detriment of the team. This spring, DeJong is hitting a paltry .125, another 20 percent decline.
DeJong will make over $9 million in 2023, in addition to a $2 million buyout if they chose not to exercise his option for 2024 at $12.5 million, and another $15 million if the Cards exercise their option and sign him for 2025.
Mo’s Mistakes and Meddling
Mo’s trades, contract extensions, and free agent signing have generated mixed results that wasted millions of dollars on questionable moves. While he can be criticized for some of his more egregious mistakes, every team makes blunders.However, Mo should be harshly criticized for repeatedly hurting the team through his meddlesome moves to mask his mistakes. Mo forced his rookie managers to continue playing DeJong, Carpenter, and his other mistakes in an effort to salvage Mo’s reputation for terrible contract extensions and free agent signings. Mo controls which Cardinals play and where they bat, which is why Mo has – and always will – only hire rookie managers that he can intimidate, manipulate, and control.
Mo can also be faulted for his rush to trade Edmundo Sosa to the Phillies in 2022 in order to force more playing time for his mistake – Paul DeJong. Sosa was the better player and went on to hit .315 for the Phillies in 2022, twice that of DeJong’s .157 average. Mo has done this before, clearing competition to force or justify more playing time for his mistakes.
It’s one of the reasons that hot-hitting Randy Arozarena was quickly relegated to pinch-hitting and pinch-running duties to try to erode his batting average and exposure during the 2019 season, prior to being traded to Tampa Bay in January 2020. In 2019, Harrison Bader hit .205, while striking out 28.8 percent of his PA’s, while Arozarena hit .300 for the Cardinals, after hitting .344 in the minors that year.
Mo was determined to keep pimping and promoting Harrison Bader, who was struggling, but had the look Mo wanted – young, white, native born, with long blond hair – to attract young white fans throughout the metro and outlying areas to attend games. The quest for profits took precedence over player performance and what’s best for the team. Mo gave Bader a Bobble-Head day at Busch Stadium, when the struggling Bader should have been in the minors.
Randy was black and of Cuban descent. If the nationality and pigmentation of Arozarena and Bader were switched, Bader would have been the player shipped off to Tampa Bay. Welcome to Mo’s World.
Mo and Paulie – “DeJong,” not “Walnuts”
Mo forced unjustified playing time for Paul DeJong the last 3 years, often batting him high in the order, so he’ll get better protection – to the detriment of the team’s performance on the field and to the team’s morale in the clubhouse.Paul DeJong is unlikely to ever perform at a satisfactory MLB level as a St. Louis Cardinal, and perhaps, with any team. The best thing for DeJong and the Cardinals is to trade or release DeJong this year in order to open his slot on the roster and give DeJong a fresh start with another team. Failing to dump DeJong will mean that Mo will continue to insist he get playing time in a futile effort to salvage Mo’s dubious reputation over another bad contract.
If DeJong’s futility continues, he should be off the team – via trade, public notice of him being put on waivers (which last 47 hours), or outright release – before the trade deadline of July 31, 2023.
We can all hope that Paul DeJong finds his “Stella” swing and gets his groove back, but it won’t happen if he remains in a Cardinal uniform. Like Matt Carpenter, DeJong needs a fresh start and a new team, without the stress, pressure, and baggage he’s accumulated in St. Louis.
Most Cardinal fans hope players do well when they move on – except against St. Louis. Like past players, DeJong will be cheered if he returns to Busch Stadium with a visiting team. Cardinal fans will feel appreciation of DeJong’s past tenure – and a sigh of relief that Mo can no longer hurt the team by tweaking his playing time.
I hope you had something to drink after writing all of that. I read about two paragraphs before I quit reading. Exhausting.
Yeah, a little repetitive. Many of us have commented often about Mo’s mistakes. And I never understood how Sosa was not the opening day shortstop last year after he was clearly the better player.
The Cardinals have a track record over the last five years or so of being reluctant to give young, athletically gifted players a lot of chances (Pham, Arozarena, Sosa, Garcia – those type of players). Out of the players given more of chance in their place, you have (had) Moss, Bader/Carlson, DeJong and probably O’Neill.
Of those to date, O’Neill is the only one who has provided much production, and not as consistently as you would like. And to be fair, Sosa is still unproven and the Phillies were not convinced he was their answer as they shelled out big money for Trey Turner.
I like Johnny only because he takes himself seriously…As for DeJong? Well, it’s obvious to me that all that hard work over the winter months has enabled him to “get his groove back.” I wonder where it wandered off to in the first place? Probably to Stella’s house…
Trading Arzarena, who was tearing up AAA, for a class A pitcher was profoundly stupid. But RA was not a big home run hitter and Libertore had 1st rounder hype dripping off him. That’s the explanation in a nutshell. DeJong hit 25 homers in 108 (that’s a 38 homers in 162 games clip) his rookie year. He had a regular job so long as he hit a homer a week, no matter if he did nothing else. That’s that in a nutshell.
In 2019, Arozarena had 15 home runs in 343 AB’s in the minors when he was called up – an average of one home run every 22.86 at bats.
Bader, who played with the Cardinals in 2019, hit 12 home runs in 347 AB’s an average of one home run every 28.91 at bats, while hitting .205. Arozarena hit .300 with the Cards in 2019, but garnered little playing time due to Mo limiting his exposure, while promoting a struggling Harrison Bader.
The comparison was between Arozarena and Bader regarding playing time and trade bait.
In 2019, DeJong’s big year, he hit 30 home runs in 583 AB’s, an average of one home run every 19.43 at bats. His home run frequency was about the same as Arozarena’s that year.
Tampa Bay chose Liberatore with the 16th pick in the 2018 draft.
One of the driver’s in the Liberatore deal was the fact that Mo had traded left-handed pitcher, Marco Gonzales for Tyler O’Neil July 21, 2017. The O’Neil trade was meant to provide the Cardinals with a much-needed power hitter, without having to sign an expensive free agent slugger. This left the Card’s staff short of left-handed starters. The Cards had chosen Gonzales with the 19th pick in the 2013 draft.
The issue with the Liberatore trade is who the Cardinals would send to Tampa Bay in return.
(Moderator note: This reply was updated at poster’s request.)
Arozarena did not help his case with his video of Shildt’s speech from the clubhouse.
Also in the trade was a swap of competitive balance picks. The Cardinals traded down, but still got Tink Hence for it. With their improved pick, the Rays took Arizona State’s Alika Williams, a defensive SS who seems to fit the Delvin Perez profile. Looks like the Cards will come out well in that part of the trade.
On the shortage of LH starters, the Cards had already used their first-rounder in 2019 on Zack Thompson, who unlike Liberatore, was a collegian, so was expected to advance more quickly.
Remember last Summer when DeJong got called up and hit pretty well for a week and a half. Everyone but me thought he was his old self, lol. Instead of selling Bud and Bud Light at the stadium, they should sell Kool Aid, lol.
The issue is not just Paul DeJong’s performance, but the perceived Front Office meddling to force DeJong into the lineup, due to his contract. This had hurt other Cardinal players and negatively impacted the team.
Paul DeJong will turn 30 on August 2, 1993. Potentially, he has a number of good years left in him as a baseball player, but the weight of his failures in St. Louis have become a psychological barrier that stifles his ability to get out of his own head. This will prevent him from reestablishing his capacity and achieving his remaining potential. These repeated failures, and his inability to successfully address them, could haunt him the rest of his life, extending well beyond his baseball career.
Matt Carpenter suffered from the same affliction, as have many players throughout the history of MLB, and millions of people in professions other than baseball.
DeJong has repeatedly tried to make corrections during the offseason that can revive his career, but none have worked, and likely never will if he stays in St. Louis. DeJong needs a fresh start – physical and psychological – with another team, slamming the door on the emotional and professional baggage he leaves behind in St. Louis. The physical change in locations can provide a fresh perspective that enables him to revive his career.
His teammates back in St. Louis, can focus on winning the Division and advancing in the playoffs, without the distraction of DeJong’s continued futile efforts and their ongoing attempts to console and motivate him.
Baseball is a team sport and the chemistry of the clubhouse can be fragile, – at times. DeJong can provide a back-up at shortstop to open the season, but if he continues to struggle, it would be best for everyone if he were traded or released by the July 31, 2023 trade deadline.
Hopefully, he can resurrect his career in a new location, the way Matt Carpenter did with the New York Yankees in 2022. I doubt that Carpenter would have had the same success if he had stayed in St. Louis, where he would have been haunted by the memories of his recent failures.
Another part of that deal was moving on from Jose Martinez. He had some big hits while he was here but I think we could all see that the shine had just about worn off. Being able to offload him and avoid overpaying him for years to come while getting back a well regarded prospect was a good way to get rid of a guy who was terrible defensively while seemingly not upsetting the team chemistry. Then after not doing too well with the Rays, he really bottomed out with the Cubs.
It doesn’t make any sense to trade for a class A pitcher if you are concerned about a hole on the left side of your rotation. And I don’t think Mo and the gang place great value on a high BA guy who doesn’t hit a lot of homers. They see that profile as a complementary piece, which we are good at developing and have on hand for trade bait. They missed the mark on RA obviously, but I think its a case of too much looking at spreadsheets and not enough looking at what’s happening on the field. But I’ve made that point already countless times.
They signed deJong because they thought he’d handle SS and hit homers. They traded Bader because they thought Carlson would cover CF and hit homers. A homer a week lights up Mo’s computer like a Christmas tree.
The Rockies might want to take a flyer on DeJong as they lost Brendan Rodgers for possibly the entire year. But they signed Moustakas, who they will play some at third with Ryan McMahon moving over to second to take Rodgers’ place.
With the hitter friendly park maybe PDJ could get his groove back. One thing about him, despite the horrid offense in 2022, DeJong was actually a slightly better than replacement player due to his stellar defense. He does not look like a classic late inning defensive replacement guy, but that is where his value is right now.
bling said:
They missed the mark on RA obviously, but I think its a case of too much looking at spreadsheets and not enough looking at what’s happening on the field. But I’ve made that point already countless times.
Yes, you have asserted it many times but have never presented any evidence that your theory is accurate. Please show how spreadsheets led to Arozarena’s trade.
Well, the Rays valued RA differently than we did, and Liberatore as well. Maybe it was luck. Lets go with that.
As to PDJ, he has been wrapped in a protective cocoon of cash, but this is the last year so it will be winding down fast. I expect him to be gone one way or another before the season is over. A good time would be when we’re riding a hot streak and other guys are giving the sports media something to obsess over. Mo could quietly bury the debacle amidst the hoopla and feel good stories. Like it never happened.
The Liberatore trade was 100% a case of looking too much at results on the field and scouting projection and not enough at the analytics. The Rays are infamously into the data and to try to jam the narrative that “analytics are bad” shows no knowledge of the way that trade actually went down. Every analytical type hated that trade, while the traditional scouts loved it for the Cards. Tampa knew that Liberatore lacked the ability to throw a successful 4 seamer to go with his hammer curve and moved on while they could. The rumor was that they wanted Arozarena over the Cards other young OF, so they had something they really liked, to be sure.
That isn’t the way I heard it at the time. The Cardinals interpretation was that RA’s relative lack of home run power meant he was not an impact player. This even though he had a impact on the field in Memphis. And as to Liberatore, we saw scouting reports and the Ray’s saw what was there to be seen on the field.
I think the data supports stlcards25’s assertion that the Cardinals were looking more at results than underlying data. Liberatore had a 1.38 ERA in his first minors season. But his strikeout to walk ratio was poor. Then, in his first full minors season with the Rays, he put up a 3.10 ERA while winning 75% of his decisions. But again, he had a poor strikeout to walk ratio and a little bit concerning WHIP. With Arozarena, he looked like the typical good outfielder that St Louis has produced in droves for the past 30 years. Good defense, solid speed, power enough to put up 20 home runs if everything breaks his way, good average – basically a clone of about 25 other outfielders St Louis has produced over the years. And, since they already had plenty of outfielders and they really needed pitching (in particular left handed pitching), they made a trade from their surplus depth. But the Rays likely saw the underlying abilities of Arozarena when they looked deeper into the data and that’s why they asked for him. And they saw the data on Liberatore and probably thought that while he might one day be an ok MLB pitcher, he was likely to never be anything they would miss. And so both teams got what they wanted. Although the Rays used the underlying metrics data to likely win this trade.
This article was written about nine months after the trade (when Randy had his playoff performance to remember) and does a pretty good job of laying out the potential background behind it. The focus is not theoretical factors of analytics or scouting, but instead real factors that everyone can see, positional depth and roster management.
This author framed it as a choice between two emerging prospects – Carlson vs. Randy – with incumbents Bader, O’Neill and Thomas remaining.
An interesting factoid about 2020: “Bader, though, exceeded expectations and also exceeded Arozarena’s production with the Rays during the regular season – 1.0 WAR to .8 WAR.”
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2020/10/17/21518050/arozarena-trade-martinez-liberatore
Also we can’t forget what Brian mentioned a few days ago, which was the issue of Randy’s social media post of Shildt’s verbal tirade in the locker room. I am not saying that was the only cause of the trade but it could have been a factor. Perhaps the Cardinals thought Randy was going to be a headache similar to Tommy Pham and they didn’t want to deal with it.
When word got out about Aroz doing the live stream, my first guess was he wasn’t going to have a long career with the Birds. When that type of conflict occurs, a bad trade can become more likely. At a minimum, it probably meant any tiebreakers regarding decisions between Aroz and all other OF options were not going the way of Aroz. Although Shildt played it off as no big deal, you don’t know if he was just keeping his real feelings in-house. And even if Shildt was being honest, Mo and BDW might have felt otherwise about Aroz’s poor judgement.
Speaking of tirades, on the WBC thread 1td and I somehow got into Lasorda’s eff bomb rant on Bevacqua from decades ago. Lasorda launched enough missiles to have even Shildt blushing. So what was the problem, lol?
Speaking of tirades, on the WBC thread 1td and I somehow got into Lasorda’s eff bomb rant on Bevacqua from decades ago. Lasorda launched enough missiles to have even Shildt blushing. So what was the problem, lol?
Yeah that was a doozy. Lasorda completely lost it.
The other night I watched one of those 30 for 30 documentaries on ESPN regarding the fall of Bobby Knight. Talk about your tirades!
The difference between Schidlt and Tommy Lasorda’s sermon was that Tommy’s was a direct reply to a question posed by a presser. Lasorda simply didn’t care that his words were being recorded for public consumption and he also provided what I thought was a very amusing story and punchline to his routine. Schildt’s tirade was run of the mill stuff…Another good sermon delivered to the press corps by Lasorda has to do with his reply to a scribbler after the reporter asked Tommy what he thought of Dave Kingman’s performance in a game in which Kingman had tatered-up 3 times and collected 8 RBI’s to help the Cubs defeat Tommy’s beloved Dodgers. It’s almost as entertaining as the Bevacqua routine. Tommy was a genuinely funny guy who said what he wanted to say. Schildt impressed me as a guy who was careful about what he said if he had the slightest inclination his words could be heard. Turns out he wasn’t careful enough. Bobby Knight outshines both of them on the simple basis of being a genuine lunatic…Haha!
Any time a motivation for a deal is non-on-field reasons, you amp up the risk of a bad trade. Keith Hernandez comes to mind. As we have said, the Arozarena deal was not due to the ill-fated recording, but maybe that was a tipping point.
And really, thinking back on that, if anyone was upset about it, it should have been Shildt who got reprimanded. I wonder if that incident is an insight into why Mike got the ax later. Maybe he had done something like that a few too many times and management got fed up with it – part of the so-called philosophical differences.
Back to the trade – the VEB analysis is a good one – the Cardinals filling a need from a surplus. But at least at this vantage point, they mistakenly believed Carlson would be better than Randy, and they may have over-estimated Liberatore’s ability. That all could change – still early on in each of their careers. But as of now, the Cardinals are behind in that swap.
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