September 18, 2019 at 7:47 pm #106786
Tanking is usually thought of in terms of a team deliberatly playing poorly to get the first choice in the subsequent seasons draft.
The disastrous 3 game series for Pittsburgh with the Cubs brings tanking to mind. The Pirates used reserves and had 11 appearances by pitchers with ERA’s of 6.00 or more and 5 with 9.00 or more.
Starting today where most teams are playing their last 10 games it is interesting to note that there are 6 major league teams with 63-68 wins. The poorest record by these teams at seasons end will probably get the 6th overall draft choice next year.
So teams could have an additional motive to accept less than stellar performance other than getting prospects experience down the stretch.
Last year the Brewers and Dodgers sprinted into the playoffs with a 9-1 and 8-2 record in their last 10 games. The Giants, Marlins, White Sox, Tigers and Reds played against the top contenders for playoff spots in their last 10 games.
San Francisco 1-9 including 0-3 vs the Cardinals
White Sox 2-8
Tigers 3-7 including 0-3 vs Milwaukee
2019 draft choices
Giants 10th overall
White Sox 3rd
How do you remove the incentive? I believe that it is more important than ever. Improved scouting methods are providing better results from the draft than in the last century.
One way is to have a lottery of the bottom 6-10 much like the NBA. You could make it even more severe by not allowing any team to participate in the lottery two years in a row.
Interested in your thoughts.September 18, 2019 at 10:48 pm #106808
The Reds playing a pitcher in CF in two of these three games wasn’t too good as far as I am concerned. They even had a pitcher batting in the top of the 10th with the bases loaded and two outs. I don’t care if it was Lorenzen he is still a pitcher.September 19, 2019 at 12:02 am #106827
Reds also did not play Iglesias muchSeptember 20, 2019 at 11:10 am #107165
Brian WaltonKeymasterPaid - Annual
One could argue that the September version of tanking is going away next year. With only two additional call-ups allowed in September, there won’t be an army of prospects to play during the final month, even if teams wanted to.September 20, 2019 at 11:15 am #107168
stlcard25ParticipantPaid - Annual
A draft lotto would certainly be one way to incentivise trying to win. A lotto for international money might also. It is frustrating when your rival has a cream puff schedule of teams that have already thrown in the towel, but it is what it is. You’ve got to play good ball and win.
As Brian mentioned, smaller rosters next year should help a little bit. Who would have been the 28 for the Cards this year, do you think? Probably all relievers.September 20, 2019 at 11:54 am #107177
Brian WaltonKeymasterPaid - Annual
Here’s the problem (as I have written about). Each season, most every MLB team has IL players they have ready to activate on or about 9/1. This year, it was O’Neill and Martinez*. Last year, it was Ozuna, Wong, Wainwright and Gyorko. In other words, I don’t think there will be room for any prospects in September. Really bad, money-driven decision.
* Plus Gomber, who they decided not to activate. If Memphis or Springfield had kept playing for a week or two in the playoffs, he might have had enough time to show he was fully ready.September 20, 2019 at 12:31 pm #107183
Have baseball scouts proven to be that accurate in evaluating talent? I wonder if a losing attitude taken by the team, even if it is out of the playoffs, is worth sliding up or down one or two spots when it seems that it is difficult to tell who is a #25 vs a #40 player. I might call up a prospect and let them get a taste of the good life before I would give away a game.September 20, 2019 at 7:39 pm #107440
I did a study of the first round picks since the beginning of the draft.
The first 30 years about 60-65% of the first round picks made the majors.
The last 20 years leading through 2014 75-80% made the majors. 2015-2019 is still much too early to evaluate.
In my opinion the Cardinals have been marginal at best with first round picks but some highlights.
The first decade of the draft (1965-1974) 50% of the first round picks made the major leagues.
84.6 of the 1985-1994 Cardinal first round picks made the major leagues but with an average career WAR of only 4.40.
In the 2005-2014 decade 84.6% of the first round picks have made the major leagues. Only Woodford (likely to make it) and Zach Cox (unlikely) have not made it. The average WAR is 6.63 but it is likely to increase with at least Wong and Flaherty with a lot of upside.
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