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Mikolas and Cardinals get the W with the help of 3 perfect innings from the BP. Helsley looked real good placing S #20 in the books.
First you complain that you expect Mikolas to give up the two runs, then you question him being removed at 62 pitches – before he can give up the two runs. Feels like you are disappointed they won.
Oli Marmol on pulling Miles Mikolas after 62 pitches: "We've got three guys that are really good on the back end. He's going right through the lane. At that point it's not pitch count. It's more familiarity with the hitters that got him." #STLCards pic.twitter.com/h820ex751Y
— Bally Sports Midwest (@BallySportsMW) June 5, 2024
Taking a gander at the out-of-town scoreboard on this rainy Wednesday in SW Indiana:
The Phillies lead Milwaukee 2-0 in the 7th at Connie Mack Stadium. Hope the Phils can hang on.
The Reds trail the Rockies 7-6 in the 8th at Coors Field.
The White Sox and Cubs are tied 0-0 in the top of the 1st at Wrigley Field.
And the Doyers and Pirates are scoreless in the top of the 1st at Forbes Field.
r/Esteemed Rat
UPDATE:
Spencer Steer homers to left with two outs in the top of the 9th and the Reds take an 8-7 lead on the Rockies at Colorado. I wish we had some players that could come through in the clutch instead of striking out, or hitting little weak ground balls, or hitting little weak pop flies.
The Phillies still lead Milwaukee 2-0 in the last of the 8th.
UPDATE:
And now Jonathan India has hit a grand slam in the top of the 9th. The Reds now lead 12-7.
The Phillies still lead the Brewers 2-0 in the top of the 9th.
I also thought it was a bit odd when Mikolas’ day was over at 62 pitches, but it didn’t hurt my feelings too much when he wasn’t out on the mound to begin the 7th. I thought his day of work may have ended due to some sort of infirmity, but we’ve been told that wasn’t the case. At any rate, you can’t question 3 scoreless innings from the BP and the Cardinals won the game, so the little whiz-kid obviously did what any other baseball genius would have done…Haha!
UPDATE:
The Phillies win over the Brewers. 2-0 the final.
And the Reds came back late and beat Colorado with two homeruns in the 9th 12-7.
So Ollie pulled Mikolas because he had no confidence in him going the third time through?
I wouldn’t and this is one of the good things I have seen Oli do.
Mikolas in 71.0 innings has given up 42 earned runs for a 5.32 ERA
Kittredge + Romero + Helsey in 84.2 innings have given up 22 earned runs for a 2.40 ERAI think it is clear if you are serious about winning a game and all those arms are available, who you go with.
For context, Liberatore has started 21 career games, or about 2/3 of a season. His ERA is right at six.
In the role, he has gotten worse with more experience:
2024: 8.10 ERA, three starts
2023: 5.88 ERA, 11 starts
2022: 5.46 ERA, seven startsLiberatore has relieved 30 times in his career. His ERA is 3.82, more than two runs per nine better than when he starts.
How to best use him seems clear.
Yeah I am maybe being too hopelessly optimistic on Liberatore. I have a feeling if he leaves this org, he will be given a consistent shot (even if after the years to reach FA) to start and develop into a solid #4 SP.
Another view of Mikolas.
OPS against him this season:
1st time through order: .774
2nd time: .782
3rd time: 1.011Mikolas is hardly the only MLB starter who loses some effectiveness as the hitters get more looks at him. I am surprised some of our posters seem surprised by this.
SCOREBOARD UPDATE:
The White Sox lead the Cubs 5-1 in the 4th at Wrigley. Then again, the Cubs trailed 5-1 last night and the White Sox found a way to lose it for them.
Time to hit the tub, grab a bowl of chili, an ice cold slushy Mt. Dew and a couple of cigars and watch the Padres and Angels from Anaheim. Maybe late tonight a couple of episodes of Dragnet with Joe Friday.
r/Esteemed Rat
Getting back to Libby and starting – sorry, I was busy all day and am just catching up – he has been better relieving than starting. Does that mean he won’t be a good starter in the future?
Maybe I am wrong in this, but has he ever just stayed in the rotation for more than say 4 starts? Seems like he will start a game, be used in relief, then start a couple, then relieve, then management scraps the whole idea of him starting.
I would like to see a commitment to him as a starter, similar to how the Giants are doing with Hicks (which I would have also done with Hicks here), and see how he responds. He has so much more potential than Pallante. Hate to see him not get that chance.
Looks like the Cardinals are leaning in the opposite direction this season with Liberatore as evidenced by 11 turns in the rotation in 22 appearances last season as opposed to only 3 turns in 20 appearances this season. I don’t think they know what to do with him just like they don’t know what to do with Pallante. They’re probably whistling in the dark and hoping Matz can provide a few decent turns when he returns from the infirmary.
Seems like Liberatore got a bunch of starts after the break last season but I can’t trust my memory….
Bikemike asked:
Maybe I am wrong in this, but has he ever just stayed in the rotation for more than say 4 starts?
The answer is yes.
In 2023, Liberatore made seven straight starts from May 26-July 5. His ERA was 6.75 when he was sent down to Memphis.
He was brought back for three starts in August and allowed 10 runs in 18 innings, which included that great eight-inning shutout vs. TBR sandwiched between two clunkers. At that point, the Cards had apparently seen enough of Liberatore starting and used Rom in the rotation instead for the rest of the season. Those final eight starts could have been Liberatore’s had he been better in his prior 11 starts, but they decided to look at Rom instead.
In September, Liberatore pitched in relief and allowed just two runs in 11 2/3 innings.
In terms of getting a chance to start every fifth day, Liberatore had done that for three years with Memphis and did not dominate. So why would we think he can do so in MLB?
Memphis 2021: 18 starts 4.09 ERA / 4.26 FIP
Memphis 2022: 22 starts 5.17 ERA / 4.63 FIP
Memphis 2023: 13 starts 4.18 ERA / 4.48 FIPThat is 53 career Triple-A starts with a 4.50 ERA (not including his 21 MLB starts). We excused his early results as he was skipped up into Triple-A post-COVID. But his results did not improve over time.
I am not down on Liberatore, but I just don’t see any reason to anticipate some kind of breakthrough from him as a starter, especially at the major league level. He has been good in relief, but it isn’t translating to starting.
FWIW, I doubt Pallante is the answer, either, but they don’t seem to have better rotation alternatives right now. Matz seems closer to returning and when he does, this will go back to a Memphis discussion.
Liberatore certainly hasn’t knocked down any doors with his opportunities, but I think his AAA numbers need a little more context:
Year/ERA/League ERA/ERA-/Age relative to lg avg
2021: 4.04/4.51/-90/-6.0
2022: 5.17/4.63/112/-5.0
2023: 4.18/5.17/-81/-3.9Fair enough, but the fact that the average Triple-A player is old and the league average ERA is high doesn’t say anything for his MLB potential. It just indicates he is younger and better than many in a mediocre lot.
I think it also indicates that the Intl League is a hitter’s league–the average OPS last year was .794. Which is why I always caution when certain posters are overly impressed by raw, unadjusted hitting stats of position players at Memphis.
To be clear, I’m not suggesting that Liberatore was killing it at AAA, just that the Cardinals promoted him pretty aggressively and he was generally better than the raw numbers look. I just wish they would have left him down there last year for the full season and kept him on a regular starter’s schedule.
For comparison of recent first-round talent pitchers at Memphis:
Michael Wacha, age 21, 2.75 ERA in 12 starts
Carlos Martinez, age 21-22, 2.18 ERA in 18 starts
Luke Weaver, age 22-24, 2.47 ERA in 17 starts
Dakota Hudson, age 22-23, 2.99 ERA in 50 starts
Jack Flaherty, age 21-22, 2.63 ERA in 20 startsJake Woodford, age 21-26, 4.02 ERA in 61 starts/2 relief appearances
Zack Thompson, age 23-26, 6.58 ERA in 44 starts/15 relief appearances
Matthew Liberatore, age 21-23, 4.91 ERA in 53 starts/4 relief appearancesHudson looks like a pretty good comp in terms of age and number of Triple-A starts. Results are very different, however, which is probably an indicator why he could stick at the back end of an MLB rotation when Liberatore cannot.
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