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And how does the FO improve the core?
The draft is glacial, for everyone, and it’s pure speculation and luck. Sometimes 13th rounders are THE difference makers.
Trading is a wash, without consistently fleecing everyone. Sideways moves just help fill inadequacies. Rob Peter, pay Paul.
Spending acquires FA’s who can be flipped to acquire young core pieces from other orgs, to improve the drafts glacial pace. Without FA-to-be chips to trade back with, how does Poor Bill improve the core?
It’s not enough to assume CB will fleece everyone by trading from what little depth he has. Or that the draft get us over the top with the next Pujols.
I’m waiting for Paul Harvey to tell me “the rest of the story”, and it’s not “we are better than we are playing” as Juniors-Junior says.
IMO, it also requires a solid core such that a few strategic additions could put a good young team over the top. It doesn’t feel like the current Cards are at that point.
Agreed. The Cards have a “core” of averageish (1.5-3 WAR) guys who are limited by lack of offense (Winn, Nootbaar), defense (Herrera, Burleson), power (Donovan), or age (Contreras, Gray, Arenado). Without some star power entering the team, it’s hard to see them becoming a real contender in the near future. There’s Wetherholt, Rodriguez and Doyle to dream on at the moment (all with their various risk), but the other top prospects look to be more in the same bucket of useful reserves to solid regulars.
Put another way, who’s the next Cardinals who will get MVP votes? Is he even in the system right now? That’s a pretty serious issue for the club to need to figure out.
As stl25 alluded to the Cards need to be careful or this 3 year rebuild could turn into a 10 year rebuild. Some rebuilds go great (early to mid 2010’s Astros and Cubs) but others don’t go so well (Pirates). The Astros and Cubs were willing to spend once their young core was established but the Pirates haven’t been willing.
With Bloom and Cerfolio leading the way it is verly likely the Cards are going to try to emulate Tampa and Cleveland. That isn’t a bad thing but at some point I think the Cardinals will have to deviate from those two franchises and spend some money and there is no reason they shouldn’t be able to do that unless the BFIB just stay away long term.
To be a contender as a decent playoff team, what does the team need? At least 2 quality starting pitchers while retaining Gray. At least 1 all star caliber OF. That’s a starting point then you may need another OF upgrade. That could be done through free agency but it would take about $60-$65 million.
To go a little deeper, the Cardinals have 4 of the top 120 position players by WAR (fangraphs is easier to search, so that’s what I used) That’s in line with what would be expected, randomly. They are Masyn Winn at 49, Willson Contreras at 85, Brendan Donovan at 106 and Alec Burleson at 119. Not exactly a murderer’s row.
For starting pitchers, the Cardinal pitchers rank of the top 150 starters…Gray at 20, Liberatore at 67, McGreevy at 123, Pallante at 138 and Mikolas at 141. So we have (arguably) a 1, a 3 and three #5 starters.
The bullpen has mostly been decent, and I think we’re in pretty solid shape there. But the “core” is certainly not very solid.
To be truly competitive, the team needs to sign an all-star third baseman and 2 real good starting pitchers while retaining Gray and Contreras. That’s the quickest path to contention. It’s only 3 players, but it’s 3 expensive players. Maybe they could package Burleson and Gorman for one of those pitchers – especially if it’s a year 2 salary arbitration guy then it might be possible. If they did that, then it would help to sign a RH hitting corner outfielder to a bench contract in addition to these other 3 new players. The team could pull all that off and be a good team again in 2026. It just doesn’t feel likely.
I have a wish list but instead I try to think about what Bloom will do. I think he is going to be methodical and prudent and try to rebuild this one piece at a time and one small transaction at a time. No shortcuts. I do not think we will be a playoff contender in 2026 but I hope we aren’t a 60 win team either.
Jnevel, the Cardinals have Donovan, Saggese, Fermin, Wetherholt, and Gorman to play 3b and 2b. I know Gorman seems like a reach but compare his stats for 2025 vs. Arenado for 2025.
The OF is a much greater need.
Donovan would be an outfielder in my scenario with Wetherholt at 2B. Fermin is not a good fielder. Wetherholt is not considered a good fielder yet and has limited time at 3B. Donovan is not a third baseman. Saggese is really bad at 3B. Gorman can do it, but he might be just above replacement level overall.
Donovan/Scott/Nootbaar is a lower end of MLB average OF. Scott only because of his glove. Nootbaar has generally been better in RF so it increases his potential a little playing him there. Then, the biggest opportunity to gain value is starting pitcher and 3B because you’re going from just above replacement level in Gorman to all star level player acquired. You don’t get as much additional value with an outfielder because we already have 3 guys that can play it at an average level. That’s my thought process anyway.
Looks like we’re experiencing a genuine glut of oven mitts. Let’s hope they aren’t the ones emblazoned with the daisy and butterfly pattern…Those can lead to the inning that never ends.
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