- This topic has 21 replies, 15 voices, and was last updated 3 years, 1 month ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I think we’re averaging 2wins a week, so after being swept by SF, that puts us in line to take the series from the Mets and more optimism if we gain 1 game a week whether it be in the division or W/C , we can be in playoff contention by the beginning of September. And if we put ourselves at that position, given how we started… I think we close strong heading into the playoffs. Now is that realistic or am I just speaking as an optimistic Cardinal fan who still has hope?
With the Brewers and Pirates continuing to lose we still are within striking distance.
Just imagine what one winning streak would do. Win 7-8 games in a row, say 11 of 12/13, and we would be back in contention.
But that winning streak has to happen first.
We are back to the worst record in the NL. Worse even than the Rox and Nats.
.391 win pct equates to 63-99.
Anything can happen, but many have a sinking feeling that even if the team could somehow squeak into the playoffs, that they would again be quickly eliminated by a clearly better team.
This raises another question. What would be better for the long term health of the organization – just getting in, and continuing on the current path – or continuing the dreadful season and making major changes as a result? Should we be careful about what we ask for?
I would say that the players / talent on the team is better than their record and that what we are seeing is a combination of several players severely underperforming their career averages, suspect managing that had lead to mental discombobulation, the FO leaving the roster 3-4 player shy (especially pitching), and then losing breeds losing – the mental aspect of sports is a real thing.
It’s the old perfect storm and each pillar of ‘winning’ is taking turns crumbling…..
At this point the season has turn sour and I don’t think there is a way back.
100 losses is not off the table. It’s astounding to think about after the way last season went.
To BW’s question above, I think major organizational changes are a necessity so perhaps the sunk season will be a blessing in disguise. Unfortunately, it may be that BDW won’t make changes unless or until it starts hitting him in the wallet, ie people stop buying tickets.
I will never root for the Cardinals to lose, but as has been mentioned above, it might be best in the long term for us to take our lumps this year to force the organization to make the necessary changes. If we rally back to .500 or miraculously squeak into the playoffs that will only serves as vindication to ownership and the front office that everything is ok, which it isn’t.
ZTR really nailed it with an articulate and insightful post. To expand a bit on it, he commented about us being 3-4 players short of a good ball club.
What has happened is we bolstered a pretty good team in the last few years with short-term fixes, that has compromised our current roster. We also just flat out missed in evaluating several of our prospects, over-valuing some and under-valuing others, which we sent away.
Just an overall perfect storm that has resulted in a complete breakdown. Somehow we need to develop some top quality pitching.
At this point, I don’t think the quick-fix or adding a couple of arms at the deadline like we have in the recent past a good approach. We need to seriously look at what we have and make some tough decisions. To start, see if there is anything we can get for DeJong, and if not bite the bullet and DFA him and give Winn the rest of the season to acclimate himself to the major leagues.
Next, work a deal for Flaherty and see what we can get that might bring future value, as you know Jack is gone after this season. Maybe do that with Montgomery as well, although signing Monty to an extension would be better. Just not sure he would want to sign here with the way things are going.
Start there, and see what you can do.
People need to understand that nothing is going to force Junior into rash actions. Other owners would do crazy things but not Junior. They might fire the manager and/or some coaches but the payroll won’t spike. It’ll be substantially the same next year. What is needed is considerable talent from the outside. All-Star caliber talent. Not the usual junk they acquire and that would mean a boost to 250 million. Never going to happen. So, be ready for a middling team going forward. Not a bad team like now but not a tier one team.
Playoffs! Playoffs? Need Jim Mora to drop by this thread as a guest poster to explain some things, haha.
Hope is a good thing though, and I don’t criticize anyone for it, but it’s not like we’ve got some stars on the IL who will return. Our pitchers aren’t going to transform overnight. I don’t see a path.
Playoffs! Playoffs!? Love the Jim Mora reference – hilarious clip!!
So if 85 wins takes this lousy division, we would need to go 58-35 the rest of the way. That is a .624 clip. I know there is a mathematical probability of a .391 team at 69 games playing at a .624 pace for 93 games, but am not sure what it is. But it has to be small, like maybe a 1 in 25 chance?? Just guessing but it can’t be likely.
So if 85 wins takes this lousy division, we would need to go 58-35 the rest of the way. That is a .624 clip.
In 2021 we won 17 in a row. If we do that right now, we would be left needing to go 41-35 a .540 clip, which is easily doable. At the start of that streak we were a paltry 2 games over .500 and 15 games behind Milwaukee. So we hadn’t been setting the world on fire or anything.
Haha Mike, about once a year my son and I will watch coaching rants. Mora, Ditka, Knight, Green, Lasorda, etc. Hal McRae’s rant where the reporter leaves his office with a bloody gash on his cheek is particularly underrated! Not a coach, but Pete Weber going off on the bowling fans has caused a few rib injuries too. They are worth an annual revisit.
I think you are way too generous at 4%. I see two chances, slim and none. And we know what slim just did.
Remember what someone posted in the thread last night. No team this many games under .500 at this point in the season has finished with more than 82 wins. Marinate on that for a moment. You think 82 wins gets us the division?
If they get anywhere close to 3-4 games out towards the end you know the brass will say it was a good run and we didn’t start well and that’s why we are where we are. Lol secure your season tickets for 2024.
If this team wants to sniff anywhere close to 75 wins they better fix the damn pitching via trade. I can’t really see them fixing a team if they know what we know about being this many games under at this point in the season. Them being a bunch of stat geeks and all. Getting a couple guys back of the DL wouldn’t hurt either.
Of course that’s what they’ll say, boohyah. I can’t bring myself to hope for it, but it would probably be better if the team were to tank for the entire season and finish in last place somewhere arond 20 games under .500 so that the entire hierarchy of Redbird bosses will be reduced to a state of utter humiliation and then subsequently paraded out to the mound area to explain their collective failures on Pride Night…
Euro, those clips of legendary meltdowns caught on video are indeed hilarious. I have seen some of Bobby Knight playing golf – man, those are crazy!
Not sure of our odds on playing at over a .600 pace from here on out, but we can do some simple math on our chances in any given 3 game series. Of course the chances vary depending on opponent, but to simplify it and make the math easier we can assume we are a .400 team, which will be our exact winning percentage if we win tonight. Three game series have 8 possible outcomes, which are WWW,WWL,WLW,LWW,WLL,LWL,LLW,LLL.
Applying the math, to sweep a series we have a 6.4% chance, calculated this way: .4 x .4 x .4 = 6.4
To win 2 of 3 we use: .4 x. 4 x .6 = 9.6.
There are three ways to win 2 of 3. Adding the three the odds are 28.8% (9.6+9.6+9.6). In doing that for all scenarios we can determine our chances in a 3 game series:
Chance of us sweeping: 6.4%
Chance of taking 2 of 3: 28.8%
Chance of losing 2 of 3: 43.2%
Chance of being swept: 21.6%
Totals of all outcomes: 100.0%Again, in any given series the odds will be different based on the opponent. But if you aggregate all series remaining and assume we will be the same club we have been, these are our odds when combining three game series for all games.
It is startling to see that our chances of being swept are more than 3 times that of us sweeping a series. And odds are half again that we will lose two of three as opposed to winning 2 of 3.
Overall there is about a 2/3s chance we will lose 2 or 3 in a 3 game set.
Needless to say, when you lose 6 of every 10 games, you are not very good.
Holy combinations, Batman!
Mike, I did the calculations using your assumptions (0.4 probability of a win each game, 0.6 for a loss). Winning 58 games out of 93 has a probability of 1 in 90,416.
If you change the probability of winning each game to a coin flip (50/50 chance of a win), then the probability of winning 58 or more is 1 in 91.
Wow, so yeah, basically no chance of getting 85 wins. Odds are this will be our first sub .500 season since ‘07.
Course things could change. Maybe we will turn around and be basically a different team at some point. That happened in ‘64, where a .500 team caught fire with the influx of two outfielders and a bullpen ace. But even that team was near .500 – I think they were 40-41 at the halfway point. We could 12-0 between now and game 81 and be only 39-42.
I don’t think it’s hit folks completely, just how bad this team is this season. They sport a .386 winning percentage and play in the worst division in baseball. They own the worst record in the NL and would be almost 20 games out of first in the other two NL divisions. They are toast, and there is no coming back this year.
Major changes are needed and pronto. I never thought I’d see a St. Louis team this bad. I guess it happens, but this is an epic failure of the entire franchise. As was said elsewhere, 100 loses isn’t off the table and with the resources this franchise enjoys that should never happen when playing in the worst division in baseball.
They got too fat and happy on their own propaganda, and it caught up to them in a big time way. There is no chance this team changes course on this season. It’s only gonna get uglier from here.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.