Slow Market. Owner collusion? Player strike?

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  • #43432
    Avatargscottar
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    Jim Bowden had some interesting comments on MLB radio this morning. While he did not use the “C” word, he did seem to hint at it. His take is that he finds it strange that the offers on the big free agents are almost identical. For example, all of the offers for JD Martinez, Darvish, Arrieta, Hosmer, etc… are the same for each player.

    While it makes sense that analytics does explain this phenomenon he asks what are the odds that all 30 front offices would adapt at the exact same time instead of it happening over a period of a few years? When Oakland started the moneyball era by emphasizing OBP it took a few years before all of the teams were doing that. Last year Cespedes got a contract that he wouldn’t get today. Why did all of a sudden in 2018 all of the teams get smart at the same time?

    I’m not suggesting collusion myself. I’m just paraphrasing Bowden’s comments. Being a former GM I value his opinion.

    #43435
    Avatarbccran
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    I believe the Cardinals and others now have even more sophisticated analytics to measure projected future performance.

    BDW and Mo said at WWU one time, that they place future value on a number of analytics that measure runs produced and runs prevented for each player. That could be arm strength from the outfield, range in the infield, pitcher’s defensive acuity, a player’s ability to move runners over, speed from 1st to third, clutch hitting stats, etc. It determines what kind of contract they would offer to a FA or what they would give up to get a player in a trade.

    The only player that the Cardinals stretched way over the projected value for was Pujols, because he was such an icon here.

    With all the new analytical tools available to GM’s now in projecting future performance, the 6 and 7 year contracts for players after they turn 30 may be a thing of the past.

    #43436
    Avatarmudville
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    mspaid –

    I think you missed my point with regard to the fans. I’ll say it again. If the fans see that the teams are not paying hundreds of millions of dollars for players, they might protest by not buying tickets. If that happens, teams will have to lower ticket prices in order to sell tickets. This, effectively, takes some of the money that the teams would otherwise be getting from the elevated ticket prices, and gives it back to the fans in the form of lower ticket prices. As far as raising the MLB minimum, that’s just something I’d like to see. Don’t know if there’s much chance of that happening.

    Also, mspaid, words like ‘Marxian’ have no place in this forum. And, admittedly, words like ‘redistribute’ don’t either. Please refrain, and so will I.

    #43439
    BlackHillsCardBlackHillsCard
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    Not only would I like to see the minimum salaries increase I also don’t like how arbitration is done. But I don’t either of these being changed unless the MLBPA finally realizes they haven’t gotten the best CBAs.

    #43441
    Avatarmspaid
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    Mudville:

    Cardinal fans have seen for years that their owners are not spending hundred of million of dollars, ticket prices have not decreased and attendances is still up. 3.4 million fans last year…second highest in baseball. I can’t speak for other teams but if you expect Cardinal ticket prices to drop you will be waiting for a long time.

    I will not suggest to you what words you can or cannot use and I would appreciate it if you would please extend to be the same courtesy.

    #44113
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Melvin Upton gets it.

    #44733
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #44742
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    This only has validity as it relates to whatever was resolved in the case eith the Marlins a few years back. But even that I wonder if it has even precedent since we they have signed a new CBA since then.

    #44746
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    The Rays receive $45 million in competitive balance tax (this is just for being a “small market team” even though by population and television audience they are bigger than St. Louis). Their payroll is going to be about $80 million. They are not even contributing half their payroll.

    Ticket sales, local TV revenue, pooled local TV revenue (MLB team must contribute a percentage of their local TV revenues to a pool which is aggregated and then split evenly among all teams), National TV revenue, merchandising and concessions are all additional revenue streams. Not to mention sale of BAM and whatever else I am missing.

    But the Rays can’t go higher than $35 million of their own money to field a baseball team because they are poor….rrrriiiigggghhhhtttt……

    Welfare for billionaires.

    #44747
    AvatarCardinals2016
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    Marlins get even more

    Miami is even bigger than Tampa

    #44748
    Avatarmspaid
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    Brian: Are teams obligated to spend revenue sharing money or can they keep it. For that matter do teams have to spend anything if they don’t want to?

    #44750
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    nate, the answers to your questions are in the second paragraph of the Tampa news story I linked to above.

    #44752
    Avatarmudville
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    How can you force someone to buy something that they don’t want to buy?

    #44753
    AvatarTheLonelyBull
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    If words like “redistribute” aren’t allowed, how are we supposed to discuss “redistribution” that already takes place in the sport? How about stop policing words or setting boundaries for what is politically acceptable?

    #44754
    AvatarCardinals2016
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    @mudville – I don’t fully understand what you are trying to ask the way it was phrased, but if you mean how can you force teams to spend money on free agents when they are not interested in those free agents – you probably can’t, but you can take away the $45 million the Rays get in competitive balance tax and the $60 million the Marlins get and force them to actually build a winner to make profits rather than plead poverty and dismantle the team every three to five years.

    Welfare for billionaires is just plain stupid.

    It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you act like a small market and rebuild every few years, you remain a low revenue club because you never build a fan base. The Marlins had arguably the best outfield in baseball last year. Now they have???? Would you pay to go see a Marlins game this year? I wouldn’t. People who remained loyal through the two previous tear downs are giving up their season tickets, and they are right. It’s too bad Miami Dade won’t get more of their money back than 5% of the “profits”.

    #44770
    Avatarmudville
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    If I lived in Miami, then ‘yes’, I would pay to see a Marlins game this year, especially if I could get a really good seat for twenty bucks, or so.

    I think the new Marlins ownership wants to build a contender. They just want to get their books in order first, meaning that they want the organization to be viable on its own without the benefit of revenue sharing. That seems sensible to me.

    I don’t know what any of the other teams’ books look like, or what problems they face, and I’m pretty sure you don’t either.

    I’ve said before that if the star players aren’t there, the teams will have to lower ticket prices to get fans in the seats. That’s one way of spending the extra money that these teams have, if, in fact, they really do have extra money. Another alternative for spending the money I’d like to see is to raise the payroll floor to where the league minimum is at least $1M. That way every kid who can manage to stay at the major league level for a whole year gets to be a millionaire. To me, that’s better than wasting countless millions of dollars on players who are over the hill, or who already have more money than they’ll ever be able to spend.

    #44819
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Changes restrict how organizations can use revenue sharing money. Worth a read for those interested in this subject.

    https://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/revenue-sharing-teams-now-ways-spend/

    #44821
    Avatarmudville
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    This makes it sound like teams receiving revenue sharing money must spend it on free agents. That’s too bad for the players who have not yet reached star status. If teams are going to be forced to adhere to this requirement, they will have to find ways to dump the revenue sharing money by possibly paying more for a player than that player is asking for, or signing players that they don’t want, and keeping them on the field at the expense of younger players who are trying to find some playing time. It sure seems like the players union should be doing more for the rank and file membership rather than the free agents who already have plenty of money by the time they reach free agency. IMO, the CBA is defective. But you can’t necessarily say that its all the union’s fault because we don’t know what the owners were saying during the negotiations.

    #44831
    Avatarmspaid
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    Mudville: Obamacare!

    #44833
    BlackHillsCardBlackHillsCard
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    The problem I see with the new Miami owners is they were not that financially stable to begin with, thus the need to cut payroll. The problem going forward is rebuilding your fan base. Will fans even care about the Marlins going forward? 3 fire sales in 20 years is going to cost you a lot of fans who just wont care anymore.

    One way to fix the revenue sharing is letting teams have the money so long as they spend it. Think of it like a bank account. You get this amount of money in revenue sharing but if you don’t use it or have some left over it goes away and you don’t get to pocket the money.

    #75276
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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