Round #1-#5 Draftees who make it to MLB

[bccran]

Let’s see how the Cardinals have done over the past 20 years with their draft picks in rounds #1-#5.

Let’s first look at the decade of the 90s –

2000 –
1st – Shaun Boyd AAA, Blake Williams (A+)
2nd – Chris Narveson (MLB 3+ years)
3rd – Chase Voshell (A+)
4th – Yadier Molina (possible MLB Hall of Fame)
5th – Josh Axelson (AA)

2001 –
1st – Justin Pope (AAA)
2nd – Dan Haren (MLB 3+ years)
3rd – Joe Mather (MLB short term)
4th – Josh Brey (A+)
5th – Skip Schumaker (MLB 3+ years)

2002 –

1st – none
2nd – none
3rd – Calvin Hayes (A+)
4th – John Boyer (A)
5th – Josh Bell (no record)

2003 –
1st – Barton (MLB 3+ years – Oakland)
2nd – Stuart Pomerantz (6 innings MLB)
3rd – Dennis Dove (3 innings MLB)
4th – Mark Michael (A+)
5th – Brandon Yarbrough (AAA)

2004 –
1st – Chris Lambert (coffee with Tigers and Orioles)
2nd – Mike Ferris (AAA)
3rd – Eric Haberer (AA)
4th – Donnie Smith (A+)
5th – Wes Swackhammer (A+)

2005 –
1st – Colby Rasmus (MLB 3+ years), Tyler Greene (MLB 3+ years), Mark McCormick (AA), Tyler Herron (AAA)
2nd – Josh Wilson (A), Nicholas Webber (AAA)
3rd – Daryl Jones (AAA)
4th – Bryan Anderson (MLB cup of coffee)
5th – Mitchell Boggs (MLB 3+ years)

2006 –
1st – Adam Ottavino (MLB 3+ years), Chris Perez (MLB 3+
years)
2nd – Thomas Furnish (AA) , John Jay (MLB 3+ years), Mark Hamilton (MLB cup of coffee)
3rd – Gary Daley (AAA)
4th – Ed Degerman (AA)
5th – Shane Robinson (MLB 3+ years)

2007 –
1st – Pete Kozma (MLB 3+ years), Clayton Mortensen (MLB 3+ years)
2nd – David Kopp (AAA), Jesse Todd (MLB cup of coffee)
3rd – Daniel Descalso (MLB 3+ years)
4th – Kyle Russell (AAA)
5th – Thomas Eager (AA)

2008 –
1st – Brett Wallace MLB 3+ years), Lance Lynn (MLB 3+ years)
2nd – Shane Peterson (MLB cup of coffee)
3rd – Niko Vasquez (AA)
4th – Scott Gorgen (AAA)
5th – Jermaine Curtis (3 MLB at bats)

2009 –
1st – Shelby Miller (MLB 3+ years)
2nd – Robert Stock (MLB cup of coffee)
3rd – Joe Kelly (MLB 3+ years)
4th – Scott Bittle (A-)
5th – Ryan Jackson (MLB cup of coffee)

We had 16 first round or supplementary first round picks. 10 Appeared in the major leagues for at least 3 years.
One had a cup of coffee in the majors. And 5 never played a day in the majors. Out of the 16, the following had a decent run with the Cardinals – Rasmus (kinda) Kozma (kinda), Perez (kinda), Lynn (for sure), and Miller (kinda). Barton, Rasmus, Ottavino, Wallace and Miller were decent trade chips.

In that decade, We drafted 59 players in the first 5 rounds. 19 made it to the majors and stayed for awhile.
11 had a short cup of coffee in the majors. And 29 never made it out of the minor leagues.

Here are the MLB averages vs. the Cardinals –

1st round –
67.7% make it to the majors.
46.8% stay in the majors for at least 3 years.
Cardinals –
68.7%
62.5%

2nd round –
49.4% make it to the majors
31.5% stay in the majors for at least 3 years.
Cardinals –
61.5%
23.0%

3rd round –
39.7% make it to the majors
21.6% stay in the majors for at least 3 years.
Cardinals –
40.0%
20.0%

4th round –
35% make it to the majors
18.6% stay in the majors for at least 3 years.
20.0%
10.0%

5th round –
33.3% make it to the majors
18.6% stay in the majors for at least 3 years.
Cardinals –
50.0%
30.0%

[bccran]

BW – there doesn’t seem to be a great deal of interest in this, so I won’t do the decade of all draftees from 2010-2019, and the highest level they all achieved.

[Mrperkins]

I enjoyed it. Boy, there was a lot of hand wringing when Kyle Russell didn’t sign. 4th rd, 2007. Looks like he had 1 good year at high A but couldn’t back it up at the next level up. I know a lot of people were upset because since he was 4th rd, not 3rd, we didn’t get a replacement pick for taking the risk

[Mrperkins]

Looking at that draft, the only really notable players selected between Cards 4th rd pick and end of 6th were Arrieta, Cishek, and scrabble. Unless we really got lucky nabbing Jake we sure did’t miss out on that pick being lost.

[mudville]

I read every bit of this analysis. I think the main reason that I didn’t comment on it was that reading it was kind of a downer. Yeah, we got Yadi in the fourth round in 2000, but there wasn’t another player who turned out to be a real game changer in any draft after that.

2001 – Dan Haren and Skip Schumaker were decent major league ballplayers, but that’s it for picks 1-5 in 2001.

2002 – Nothing (worth remembering)

2003 – Nothing

2004 – Nothing

2005 – Colby Rasmus , Mitchell Boggs Well at least we got something albeit a troublemaker and a pretty good relief pitcher. Meh.

2006 – Adam Ottovino, Chris Perez, Shane Robinson

2007 – Danny Descalso

2008 – Brett Wallace, Lance Lynn

2009 – Selby Miller, Joe Kelly

In 10 years of drafting players in the 1-5 rounds, this is it. This is all we got, 1 real keeper (Yadi).

[Euro Dandy]

. . . . it was kind of a downer. Yeah, we got Yadi in the fourth round in 2000, but there wasn’t another player who turned out to be a real game changer in any draft after that.

You know this biz is hit and miss, but this thread lets you know how tough it really is. Too bad a guy named Swackhamer didn’t make it. There was some marketing pop there.

[Mrperkins]

Kelly was a decently regarded guy in the absolute steal that got us Lackey for a season at 500k and dumped Craigs salary. Everytime I see an idiot on mlbtraderumors diss Mozeliak I still am in wonder he pulled off that coup, not to mention the comp pick after Lackey left.

[Mrperkins]

I think people forget how good his year with us was. 33 starts, over 200 innings of 2.77 era. He may have been a bit of a jerk but you could count on him for 6-7 innings every time out.

[forsch31]

Bccran, I plan on adding something to this topic but I have been too busy to get my info together, yet.

[jj-cf-stl]

1990 rule 4 draft: sorted by team brWAR of players drafted and signed. Players career war posted in an effort to show how good or bad the pick / draft was.

NYY 130.0 war (Pettitte 60.2, Posada 42.7, C. Everett 20.5)
ATL 99.5 (Chipper 85.3)
CHW 89.5 (Durham 33.8, A. Fernandez 28.5, Wickman 16.5)
BAL 86.2 (Mussina 82.8)
SEA 51.8 (Hampton 28.2, Brett Boone 22.9)
LAA 44.7 (G. Anderson 25.7, T. Percival 17.0)
NYM 42.7 (J. Burnitz 19.9, Vina 12.3)
MIN 40.6 (E. Guardado 13.2, 4 others between 5 and 10 war)
MON 39.0 (R. White 28.2)
TEX 23.3
CLE 17.7
PHI 15.9
CIN 12.6
DET 12.3
PIT 11.1
TOR 9.9
SFG 6.4
OAK 5.7
SDP 5.3
STL 4.1
BOS 1.2
LAD -0.3
CHC -0.5
MIL -1.8
KCR -2.6
HOU -4.5

[bccran]

Okay, let’s take a look at this past decade –

2010 –
1st – Zack Cox (AAA)
1s – Seth Blair (AAA)
1s – Tyrell Jenkins (coffee)
2nd – Jordan Swagerty (AA)
3rd – Sam Tuivailala (3+ yrs. MLB)
4th – Cody Stanley (coffee)
5th – Nick Longmire (AA)

2011 –
1st – Kolten Wong (3+ yrs. MLB)
2nd – Charlie Tilson (coffee)
3rd – CJ McElroy (AA)
4th – Kenny Peoples-Walls (A)
5th – Sam Giviglio (3+ yrs. MLB)

2012 –
1st – Michael Wacha (3+ yrs. MLB)
1st – James Ramsey (AAA)
1S – Stephen Piscotty (MLB)
1S – Patrick Wisdom (coffee)
1S – Steve Bean (A+)
2nd – Carson Kelly (MLB)
3rd – Tim Cooney (coffee)
4th – Alex Mejia (coffee)
5th – Cory Jones (A+)

2013 –
1st – Rob Kaminsky (AAA)
1st – Marco Gonzales (MLB)
2nd – Oscar Mercado (MLB 1 yr.)
3rd – Mike Mayers (coffee)
4th – Mason Katz (AA)
5th – Ian McKinney (AA)

2014
1st – Luke Weaver (MLB)
1st – Jack Flaherty (MLB)
2nd – Ronnie Williams (AA)
2s – Andrew Morales (AAA)
3rd – Trevor Megill (AAA)
4th – Austin Gomber (coffee)
5th – Darren Sefarina (AA)

2015 –
1st – Nick Plummer (A+)
1s – Jake Woodford (AAA)
2nd – Bryce Denton (A+)
3rd – Jordan Hicks (MLB)
3rd – Harrison Bader (MLB)
4th – Paul DeJong (MLB)
5th – Ryan Helsley (MLB)

2016 –
1st – Dylan Carlson (AAA)
1st – Delvin Perez ((A)
1st – Dakota Hudson (MLB)
2nd – Conner Jones (AAA)
3rd – Zac Gallon (MLB)
4th – Jeremy Martinez (AAA)
5th – Walker Robbins (A-)

2017 –
1st – no pick
2nd – no pick
3rd – Scott Hurst (AA)
4th – Kramer Robertson (AAA)
5th – Zach Kirtley (AA)

2018 –
1st – Nolan Gorman (A+)
1s – Griffin Roberts (A+)
2nd – Luke Baker (A)
3rd – Mateo Gil (A+)
4th – Stephen Gingery (GCL)
5th – Nick Dunn (A+)

2019 –
1st – Zack Thompson (A+)
2nd – Trejyn Fletcher (rookie)
3rd – Tony Locey (A)
4th – Andre Pallante (A-)
5th – Conner Thomas (A)

This decade has been much better.
That 2017 draft really hurt. Thank goodness for Jack Flaherty in 2014 and the 2015 and 2016 draft classes. Bottom line? Out of the 7 picks we have in the 2020 draft we should pick up at least 2 that could become decent contributors to the Cardinals. And maybe another one or two that may see a cup of coffee some day and be able to tell their grandkids.

[14NyquisT]

Some of these picks were traded and brought back some value. More were flipped for little to no value.

[bccran]

That’s very true, 14. The analysis is how
many of our draftees from the first 5 rounds this century make it to the majors for a stay of at least 3 years, how many make it for a cup of coffee, and how many never make it. Compared to the major league average. That’s irregardless of whether they were traded. Doing this to try to gage the expectations out of this 5 round draft coming up in the next 10 days or so.

[bccran]

In 2010, the Cards also had 7 draftees in the first 5 rounds. One became a fairly decent major leaguer and was traded, 2 had a few major league games, and four never made it. In 2014, we also had 7. Our 2 first rounders were fine, but the 2 second rounders, our 3rd rounder, and our 5th rounder were busts. Gomber was our 4th rounder. It really is like rolling the dice. The biggest anomaly was in 2015.
We busted one of our 2 first rounders and second rounder, but did well on our other 1st rounder and great on 2 third rounders, a 4th rounder, and a 5th rounder.

[mudville]

What a difference between the first decade of the 2000’s and the second decade! Kaminsky is getting another chance, and so is Mike Mayers, so the 2013 draft could turn out better than it presently looks. Both pitchers have good stuff. Kaminsky has had injury problems and Mayers hasn’t been able to consistently stay in the strike zone.

[SoonerinNC]

Other than the Red Sox and Yankees we have had the lowest picks over most of the time since 2000. I did a study once and we are among the best in the lower rounds. I feel that we haven’t done that well with our first choice but so many of the best players in the game were not available when we got our first choice.

My study indicated the Red Sox and particularly the Blue Jays have done well.

[bccran]

Good stuff, Sooner. We have had some success with later round guys like Carpenter, Rosenthal, and a guy named Pujols.

Since the first round is coming up on June 10th, let’s take a quick look at how we’ve done with our 1st Round and supplementary 1st round draftees over the past 20 drafts.

Shaun Boyd (bust)
Blake Williams (bust)
Justin Pope (bust)
Daric Barton (traded-MLB)
Chris Lambert (traded-cup of coffee)
Colby Rasmus (traded-MLB)
Tyler Greene (traded-MLB)
Mike McCormick (bust)
Tyler Herron (bust)
Adam Ottavino (traded-MLB)
Chris Perez (traded-MLB)
Pete Kozma (brief MLB)
Clayton Mortensen (traded-mlb)
Brett Wallace (traded-MLB)
Lance Lynn (MLB)
Shelby Miller (MLB)
Zack Cox (bust)
Seth Blair (bust)
Tyrell Jenkins (14 MLB games)
Kolten Wong (MLB)
Michael Wacha (MLB)
James Ramsey (bust)
Stephen Piscotty (MLB-traded)
Patrick Wisdom (traded, 4 MLB games)
Steven Bean (bust)
Marco Gonzalez (MLB-traded)
Rob Kaminsky (traded-now back)
Luke Weaver (MLB-traded)
Jack Flaherty (MLB)
Nick Plummer (bust so far)
Delvin Perez (bust so far)
Dylan Carlson (great prospect)
Nolan Gorman (excellent prospect)
Zack Thompson (excellent prospect)

What conclusions can we draw? In 20 years, it seems only Kolten Wong and Michael Wacha (now gone) have had a long term tenure and impact with the Cardinals. The rest have with been traded or were busts.
But we’ve got great hopes for Flaherty,
Carlson, Gorman, and probably Thompson.
This year’s #1 too. Hope they all become tenured core Cardinal players.

[jj-cf-stl]

1991:
CLE 102.4 (M. Ramirez 69.3, Paul Byrd 16.2)
MIN 77.2 (Brad Radke 45.4, LaTroy Hawkins 17.8)
MON 66.4 (Mark Grudzielanek 26.5, Cliff Floyd 25.9)
SEA 65.2 (Derek Lowe 34.3, S. Estes 10.4)
TOR 56.2 (Shawn Greene 34.7, Alex Gonzalez 11.2)
CHW 54.5 (Mike Cameron 46.7)
KCR 54.4 (Mike Sweeney 24.8, Joe Randa 21.4)
BOS 39.6 (A. Sele 20.1, S. Hatteberg 10.0)
MIL 34.0 (Jeff Cirillo 34.5)
ATL 29.3 (Jason Schmidt 29.5)
NYM 22.9 (Jason Isringhausen 13.0)
SDP 18.7
DET 14.7
STL 12.7 (Dimitri Young 12.2)
TEX 9.0
BAL 7.0
OAK 6.8
PHI 6.0
LAD 4.4
LAA 2.2
PIT 2.1
CIN 1.8
NYY 1.5
HOU 0.2
SFG -1.5

[bccran]

So here’s another summery of the 36 first and supplemental first round picks since 2000 –

1.) Never made it to the majors –

Shaun Boyd
Blake Williams
Justin Pope
Mark McCormick
Tyler Herron
Zach Cox
Seth Blair
James Ramsey
Steven Bean

2.) Made it to the majors for a short short time –

Chris Lambert (was in 14 MLB games)
Tyrell Jenkins (was in 14 MLB games)
Patrick Wisdom (41 MLB games so far)

3.) Played MLB for at least 3 years –

Daric Barton (traded after 0 Card games)
Tyler Greene (traded after 227 games with Cards)
Colby Rasmus (traded after 385 games with Cards)
Adam Ottavino (traded after 9 games with Cards)
Chris Perez (traded after 70 games with Cards)
Pete Kozma (granted free agency after 275 games with Cards)
Clayton Mortensen (traded after 1 game with Cards)
Brett Wallace (traded after zero games with Cards)
Lance Lynn (granted free agency after 183 games with Cards)
Shelby Miller (traded after 69 games with Cards)
Kolten Wong (long term Cardinal)
Michael Wacha (granted free agency after 165 games with Cards)
Stephen Piscotty (traded after 323 games with Cards)
Marco Gonzalez (traded after only 12 games with Cards)
Like Weaver (traded after 52 games with Cards)
Jack Flaherty (presently ace of staff)

4.) Jury is still out –

Nick Plummer
Rob Kaminsky
Jake Woodford
Delvin Perez
Dylan Carlson
Nolan Gorman
Griffin Roberts
Zack Thompson

Interesting picture. How many have become long term core players versus busts, cup of coffee only, and traded after only a short term with Cards? Only 6 out of 27 have played in 100+ games for the Cards so far. Jury is still out on 9.

[bccran]

In 2016, for example, the Cards had 3 of the first 34 picks. If they had that this year, I’d be all for taking a high school player in the first round. Even if we only had 2 picks in the 1st 34. But with only one pick in the first 53 players, I wouldn’t be risking that on a player who’s performance is only measured through 11th grade.

[jj-cf-stl]

1991 also:
CHC 40.2 (Trachsel 25.1, Lieber 24.2)

1992:
KCR 85.8 (Damon 56.3, Lieber 24.2)
NYY 78.2 (Jeter 71.3)
OAK 51.2 (Jason Giambi 50.5)
PIT 41.6 (Kendall 41.7)
TEX 38.9 (Helling 20.2, Rich Aurilia 18.2)
DET 34.1 (Higginson 23.1, Catalanotto 14.5)
SEA 32.8 (Ibanez 20.9, Ryan Franklin 11.5)
TOR 28.7 (Shannon Stewart 24.9)
COL 26.4 (Counsell 22.4)
HOU 24.8 (Nevin 15.9)
MIA 18.7 (Charles Johnson 22.6)
SFG 18.7
MON 16.0 (Vidro 17.4)
BAL 13.1
CLE 11.1
MIL 8.7
ATL 6.2
CHW 6.1
NYM 5.8
STL 5.1
LAA 4.6
PHI 3.0
CIN 1.3
MIN 0.5
LAD 0.3
SDP -0.2
BOS -1.4
CHC -3.1

[jj-cf-stl]

1993 rule 4 draft:

SEA 116.6 (A-Rod 117.5)
PHI 71.0 (Rolen 70.1)
SDP 59.7 (Derek Lee 34.6, G. Matthews 14.2, M. Clement 12.3)
ATL 52.2 (Millwood 29.8, Dye 20.3)
MIN 50.2 (Tori Hunter 50.7)
BOS 37.1 (Trot Nixon 21.2, Suppan 17.1)
TOR 32.3 (Chris Carpenter 34.2)
SFG 31.8 (B. Mueller 23.9, Singleton 9.7)
CLE 27.9 (Sexon 18.0, S. Kline 9.9)
HOU 27.7 (Billy Wagner 27.7)
LAD 25.5 (Lo Duca 17.9)
MIL 25.4 (Loretta 19.3)
COL 22.8 (J. Thompson 12.3)
OAK 17.7 (Spezio 8.8)
CHW 11.2
DET 9.8
STL 8.1 (Marrero 4.9)
CHC 6.7
MON 6.0
KCR 6.0
LAA 4.7
CIN 3.8
PIT 2.2
FLA 1.7
NYM 1.5
BAL 1.5
TEX 0.3
NYY -1.4

[jj-cf-stl]

1994 rule 4 draft:

MIN 59.8 (Koskie 24.6, AJ Pierzynski 23.8, Todd Walker 10.5)
BOS 58.5 (Garciaparra 44.3, Carl Pavano 16.4, Aaron Boone 13.6)
STL 52.8 (Placido Polanco 41.9)
MON 47.1 (Javier Vazquez 45.6)
SFG 32.4 (Foulke 20.7, Bob Howrie 10.7)
NYM 27.7 (Jay Payton 15.4)
HOU 26.9 (Julio Lugo 13.5)
LAD 24.6 (Konerko 28.0)
SEA 22.9 (Varitek 24.2)
MIL 22.8 (Belliard 20.8)
CLE 21.6 (Branyan 11.2)
KCR 16.5 (Jose Rosado 10.2)
CIN 12.3
TEX 12.0
DET 10.8
SDP 9.9
OAK 9.3
CHC 5.9
LAA 3.5
TOR 2.2
PIT 1.2
CHW 0.9
NYY -0.6
BAL -1.4
COL -2.1
FLA -2.6
ATL -2.8
PHI -5.0

[jj-cf-stl]

Garciaparra career brWAR of 44.3, Placido Polanco 41.9
That surprised me.

[BlackHillsCard]

BW – there doesn’t seem to be a great deal of interest in this, so I won’t do the decade of all draftees from 2010-2019, and the highest level they all achieved.

I’ve already done this, but my spreadsheet goes all the way back to the 1965

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jyv8Wr8h12oG0As5RwKNmm7DOJx7HPmtVr4IiQ_Jqp4/edit?usp=sharing

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